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Expert networks in CLIPS

Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

Hruska, S. I.↗

CSU FIRE 2 cirrus field experiment: Description of field deployment phase

The Colorado State University (CSU) surface observing systems are described. These systems were deployed at the Parsons, Kansas site during the FIRE 2 Cirrus Special Observing Period (SOP) from 13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991. The geographical coordinates of the site containing most of the CSU instrumentation are 37 deg. 18 min N. latitude and 96 deg. 30 min. W. longitude; site elevation was 269 meters. In addition, one surface meteorological and broadband flux observing site was maintained at the Tri City Airport which is approximately 18 miles due west of Parsons (37 deg. 20 min. N. latitude, 95 deg. 30 min. 30 sec. W. longitude). A map of the locations of the CSU deployment sites is presented. At the main Parsons site, the instrumentation was located directly adjacent to and north of a lake. Under most cirrus observing conditions, when the wing had a significant southernly component, the lake was upwind of the observing site. The measurements and observations collected during the experiment are listed. These measurements may be grouped into five categories: surface meteorology; infrared spectral and broadband measurements; solar spectral and broadband measurements; upper air measurements; and cloud measurements. A summary of observations collected at the Parsons site during the SOP are presented. The wind profiler, laser ceilometer, surface meteorology and surface broadband radiation instrumentation were operated on a continuous basis. All other systems were operated on an 'on demand' basis when cloud conditions merited the collection of data.

Cox, S.↗

Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing of Forest Dynamics in Central Siberia

The forested regions of Siberia, Russia are vast and contain about a quarter of the world's forests that have not experienced harvesting. However, many Siberian forests are facing twin pressures of rapidly changing climate and increasing timber harvest activity. Monitoring the dynamics and mapping the structural parameters of the forest is important for understanding the causes and consequences of changes observed in these areas. Because of the inaccessibility and large extent of this forest, remote sensing data can play an important role for observing forest state and change. In Central Siberia, multi-sensor remote sensing data have been used to monitor forest disturbances and to map above-ground biomass from the Sayan Mountains in the south to the taiga-tundra boundaries in the north. Radar images from the Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C)/XSAR mission were used for forest biomass estimation in the Sayan Mountains. Radar images from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1), European Remote Sensing Satellite-1 (ERS-1) and Canada's RADARSAT-1, and data from ETM+ on-board Landsat-7 were used to characterize forest disturbances from logging, fire, and insect damage in Boguchany and Priangare areas.

Ransom, K. J.↗

Assessing Alaskan boreal forest landcover affected by climate-wildfire interactions from ground truth surveys and NASA airborne remote sensing

Alaska’s boreal forest is facing unprecedented challenges under rapid climate warming (increasingly severe fires, droughts, pest/disease outbreaks) that may destabilize its function as a global carbon sink. Forests near Fairbanks may be especially vulnerable, impacting air quality and ecosystem services. We combined GT (ground truthing) with Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) images collected by the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) program (2017-2019) to assess landcover change at five recently burned sites (2001-2019) of different fire severities and moisture regimes within 30 miles of Fairbanks. GT included tree seedling counts, understory % cover and >50% leaf canopy color assessment. 36 circular plots (1/30 ha radius) including 6 moderate to severely burned plots were selected across sites. 31 additional sites including 12 burned sites were geotagged in photos. AVIRIS images were processed from 29 spectral bands selected to identify changes in chlorophyll and water content. Images were segmented into natural boundaries (polygons) using ENVI 5.5 software. A spectral library of 8 AVIRIS bands with high between-class/low within-class variation was used in two random forest models to predict vegetation classes (model 1: 12 classes, model 2: 14 classes) in each AVIRIS scene, using 20% of the data as training data. Model 2 classified 20% more polygons overall, but only 42% of GT/geotagged polygons were correctly classified by both models. More forest sites were correctly classified (63%) than open vegetation (32%) or post-fire sites (46%). 50% of aspen forest and post-fire polygons were misclassified as shrubland. GT revealed that post-fire plots supported 134,000 (± 48,000) tree seedlings and saplings ha-1 (0.2 - 4 m height, 64% deciduous) versus 2500 (± 2100) shrubs ha-1 (1-6 m height). > 50% canopy browning was observed in conifer forest (8 plots) with no signs of insect infestation. Canopy herbivory > 50% (leaf miner, leaf beetle) and moose herbivory of tree bark was seen across aspen sites. Our study suggests: 1) low canopy vegetation presents challenges for improved landcover classification, and 2) aspen forest should be differentiated in vegetation maps which would aid in tracking herbivory.

Alaska↗

Remote Sensing of Aerosol Over the Land from the Earth Observing System MODIS Instrument

On Dec 18, 1999, NASA launched the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra mission, in a spectacular launch. The mission will provide morning (10:30 AM) global observations of aerosol and other related parameters. It will be followed a year later by a MODIS instrument on EOS Aqua for afternoon observations (1:30 PM). MODIS will measure aerosol over land and ocean with its eight 500 m and 250 m channels in the solar spectrum (0-41 to 2.2 micrometers). Over the land MODIS will measure the total column aerosol loading, and distinguish between submicron pollution particles and large soil particles. Standard daily products of resolution of ten kilometers and global mapped eight day and monthly products on a 1x1 degree global scale will be produced routinely and make available for no or small reproduction charge to the international community. Though the aerosol products will not be available everywhere over the land, it is expected that they will be useful for assessments of the presence, sources and transport of urban pollution, biomass burning aerosol, and desert dust. Other measurements from MODIS will supplement the aerosol information, e.g., land use change, urbanization, presence and magnitude of biomass burning fires, and effect of aerosol on cloud microphysics. Other instruments on Terra, e.g. Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), will also measure aerosol, its properties and radiative forcing in tandem with the MODIS measurements. During the Aqua period, there are plans to launch in 2003 the Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations (PICASSO) mission for global measurements of the aerosol vertical structure, and the PARASOL mission for aerosol characterization. Aqua-MODIS, PICASSO and PARASOL will fly in formation for detailed simultaneous characterization of the aerosol three-dimensional field, which will feed and evaluate global aerosol transport and climate models. In this talk, some examples of the MODIS measurements will be shown.

Kaufman, Yoram↗

Three dimensional modeling of cirrus during the 1991 FIRE IFO 2: Detailed process study

A three-dimensional model of cirrus cloud formation and evolution, including microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes, was used to simulate cirrus observed in the FIRE Phase 2 Cirrus field program (13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991). Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing of solution drops, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, aggregation, and vertical transport. Visible and infrared radiative fluxes, and radiative heating rates are calculated using the two-stream algorithm described by Toon et al. Wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, and temperatures were taken from the MAPS analyses and the MM4 mesoscale model simulations. Within the model, moisture is transported and converted to liquid or vapor by the microphysical processes. The simulated cloud bulk and microphysical properties are shown in detail for the Nov. 26 and Dec. 5 case studies. Comparisons with lidar, radar, and in situ data are used to determine how well the simulations reproduced the observed cirrus. The roles played by various processes in the model are described in detail. The potential modes of nucleation are evaluated, and the importance of small-scale variations in temperature and humidity are discussed. The importance of competing ice crystal growth mechanisms (water vapor deposition and aggregation) are evaluated based on model simulations. Finally, the importance of ice crystal shape for crystal growth and vertical transport of ice are discussed.

Jensen, Eric J.↗

Satellite Detection of Smoke Aerosols Over a Snow/Ice Surface by TOMS

The use of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite data demonstrates the recently developed technique of using satellite UV radiance measurements to detect absorbing tropospheric aerosols is effective over snow/ice surfaces. Instead of the traditional single wavelength (visible or infrared) method of measuring tropospheric aerosols, this method takes advantage of the wavelength dependent reduction in the backscattered radiance due to the presence of absorbing aerosols over snow/ice surfaces. An example of the resulting aerosol distribution derived from TOMS data is shown for an August 1998 event in which smoke generated by Canadian forest fires drifts over and across Greenland. As the smoke plume moved over Greenland, the TOMS observed 380 nm reflectivity over the snow/ice surface dropped drastically from 90-100% down to 30-40%. To study the effects of this smoke plume in both the UV and visible regions of the spectrum, we compared a smoke-laden spectrum taken over Greenland by the high spectral resolution (300 to 800 nm) GOME instrument with one that is aerosol-free. We also discuss the results of modeling the darkening effects of various types of absorbing aerosols over snow/ice surfaces using a radiative transfer code. Finally, we investigated the history of such events by looking at the nearly twenty year record of TOMS aerosol index measurements and found that there is a large interannual variability in the amount of smoke aerosols observed over Greenland. This information will be available for studies of radiation and transport properties in the Arctic.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction/prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted landcover change maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning. Forecasted landcover maps indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands.

William Curtiss↗

The LATEST Project: Operational Assessment of Total Lightning Data in the U.S.

A government, university, and industry alliance has joined forces to transition total lightning observations from ground-based research networks and NASA satellites (LIS/TRMM) to improve the short range prediction of severe weather. This interest builds on the desire of the U.S Weather Research Program to foster a national Nowcasting Test Bed, with this specific transition activity initiated through the NASA short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL. A kick-off national workshop sponsored by the SPoRT Center was held in Huntsville April 1-2 to identify the common goals and objectives of the research and operational community, and to assign roles and responsibilities within the alliance. The workshop agenda, presentations, and summary are available at the SPoRT Center Web site ( h h under the "Meetings" tab. The next national workshop is planned for 2005 in Dallas, TX. The NASA North Alabama regional Lightning Mapping Array &MA) has been operational in the Huntsville area for 3 years, and has continuously sampled a variety of severe weather systems during that period. A gridded version of the LMA total lightning data is currently being supplied to National Weather Service offices in Huntsville, Nashville and Birmingham through the NWS AWES decision support system, for the purposes of assessing the utility of the data in the nowcasting of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, flash flooding and other weather hazards (lightning induced forest fires, microbursts). While the raw LMA data have been useful to NWS forecasters, even greater utility would be realized if higher-order data products could be supplied through AWIPS along with the gridded data over a larger domain. In 2003-2004 additional LMA systems have been deployed across the southern US. from Florida to New Mexico, providing an opportunity for more than 20 NWS forecast offices to evaluate the incremental value of total lightning data in the warning decision making process.

Goodman, Steven↗

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction and prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted land cover maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands. These maps addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning.

Bill Curtiss↗

Optical and morphological properties of Cirrus clouds determined by the high spectral resolution lidar during FIRE

Cirrus clouds reflect incoming solar radiation and trap outgoing terrestrial radiation; therefore, accurate estimation of the global energy balance depends upon knowledge of the optical and physical properties of these clouds. Scattering and absorption by cirrus clouds affect measurements made by many satellite-borne and ground based remote sensors. Scattering of ambient light by the cloud, and thermal emissions from the cloud can increase measurement background noise. Multiple scattering processes can adversely affect the divergence of optical beams propagating through these clouds. Determination of the optical thickness and the vertical and horizontal extent of cirrus clouds is necessary to the evaluation of all of these effects. Lidar can be an effective tool for investigating these properties. During the FIRE cirrus IFO in Oct. to Nov. 1986, the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) was operated from a rooftop site on the campus of the University of Wisconsin at Madison, Wisconsin. Approximately 124 hours of fall season data were acquired under a variety of cloud optical thickness conditions. Since the IFO, the HSRL data set was expanded by more than 63.5 hours of additional data acquired during all seasons. Measurements are presented for the range in optical thickness and backscattering phase function of the cirrus clouds, as well as contour maps of extinction corrected backscatter cross sections indicating cloud morphology. Color enhanced images of range-time indicator (RTI) displays a variety of cirrus clouds with approximately 30 sec time resolution are presented. The importance of extinction correction on the interpretation of cloud height and structure from lidar observations of optically thick cirrus are demonstrated.

Grund, Christian John↗

Flight set 360L009 (STS-36) case and seals component, volume 2

The performance of the 360L009, Ninth Flight, Redesigned Solid Rocket Motors (RSRM) is assessed in respect to case hardware and joint sealing issues as seen from post-fire assessment of the case and seals. In addition, all of the potential anomalies have been classified and summarized. The post-fire assessment of both motors showed the case segments to be in good condition. Field joint fretting of this flight set ranged from light on most of the joints to locally heavy on three of the joints. The LH aft field joint is the most heavily fretted joint to date; this joint had previously fretted areas from STS-27. No new fretting was found in old fretting locations. However, new frets were found at the edges of repaired areas on both the LH center and aft field joints. All fretting was mapped from the inner clevis leg. The capture feature fretting was not mapped due to the difficulty of measuring the fretting in the capture feature region. It is assumed that the capture feature had damage similar to that on the inner clevis leg.

Carlisle, Alan R.↗

Fragmented Land Cover Types and Estimation of Area with Course Spatial Resolution Imagery

Imagery of coarse resolution, such weather satellite imagery with 1 sq km pixels, is increasingly used to monitor dynamic and fragmented types of land surface types, such as scars from recent fires and ponds in wetlands. Accurate estimates of these land cover types at regional to global scales are required to assess the roles of fires and wetlands in global warming, yet difficult to compute when much of the area is accounted for by fragments about the same size as the pixels. In previous research, we found that size distribution of the fragments in several example scenes fit simple two-parameter models and related effects of coarse resolution to errors in area estimates based on pixel counts. We report on progress to develop accurate area estimates based on modelling the size distribution of the fragments, including analysis of size distributions on an expanded set of maps developed from digital imagery and a test of a procedure to correct for effects of coarse spatial resolution.

Hlavka, Chris↗

A Collaborative Decision Environment for UAV Operations

NASA is developing Intelligent Mission Management (IMM) technology for science missions employing long endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's). The IMM groundbased component is the Collaborative Decision Environment (CDE), a ground system that provides the Mission/Science team with situational awareness, collaboration, and decisionmaking tools. The CDE is used for pre-flight planning, mission monitoring, and visualization of acquired data. It integrates external data products used for planning and executing a mission, such as weather, satellite data products, and topographic maps by leveraging established and emerging Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to acquire external data products via the Internet, and an industry standard geographic information system (GIs) toolkit for visualization As a Science/Mission team may be geographically dispersed, the CDE is capable of providing access to remote users across wide area networks using Web Services technology. A prototype CDE is being developed for an instrument checkout flight on a manned aircraft in the fall of 2005, in preparation for a full deployment in support of the US Forest Service and NASA Ames Western States Fire Mission in 2006.

D'Ortenzio, Matthew V.↗

Magellan orbits Venus

Various events surrounding Magellan's orbit of Venus are recounted. Significant events include the successful firing of a solid rocket motor while the spacecraft was behind Venus to transfer it from a solar-centered trajectory to an orbit around the planet. The spacecraft orbits Venus every 3.26 hours at a maximum altitude of 8500 km and minimum altitude of 291 km in an elliptical orbit. The successful August 16 test of the synthetic-aperture radar system is discussed, noting that it produced two strips, each about 20 km x 16,000 km, revealing details as small as 120 m. Two anomalies causing a delay in the start of mapping operations and subsequent breaks in the communication link with earth for 14.5 hours and 17.7 hours are discussed. Protective measures directed from the spacecraft's ROM during breach of contact are listed, and possible causes of the anomalies are suggested, such as solar activity or hardware or software elements, although the actual cause is not yet known.

Mclaughlin, W. I.↗

Carbon Monitoring and Above Ground Biomass Trends: Anchor Forest Opportunities for Tribal, Private and Federal Relationships

There are more than 300 million hectares of forested land whithin the conterminious United States essential to sustaining the myriad social/cultural, economic, and ecologic benefits society enjoys from these lands. Nationwide, millions of forested hectares, both private and public, are disappearing functionally and physically throguh serve wildfire fire and land coversion. On many of these lands, management, centered on fire supression, has led to reductions in forest resilience to wildfire. Lands, overstocked with accumulated fuel and faced with a changing climate, are expected to continue this legacy of fire and deteriorating health. A paradigm shift is needed to face the challenges confronting forests and enhance collaborative efforts across multiple foret ownerships. Our ability to leverage emerging technologies and pair them with the knowledge of indigenous peoples presents new opportunities for success. The objectives of this study were to 1) assess the Anchor Forest concept as a framework to leverage collaborative motivations and leadership by indigenous peoples (Tribes) in eastern Washington State to improve forest ecosystem health across legal and political boundaries, 'cross-boundary' management, and 2) demonstrate how the NASA carbon monitoring system (CMS) mapping of products of regional forestland above ground biomass (AGB) density and temporal trends can provide information that supports decisionmakers in their efforts to collaboratively approach improving forest health conditions through management activities.

Tribes; Anchor Forests; Forest Resilience; Collabo↗

Southern Indiana Ecological Conservation: Assessing Canopy Cover Dynamics and Forest Type Groupings in Southern Indiana to Inform Restoration Activities

As human influence continues to negatively impact natural habitats, timely assessment of ecosystem changes and restoration is critical to protect forest health and biodiversity. In our study, we focused on oak-hickory forests in southern Indiana. Oak-hickory forests were the dominant ecosystem dynamic in present-day Indiana for centuries until European colonization, which brought about fire suppression and, eventually, fire exclusion. Anthropogenic fire exclusion in this fire-adapted habitat led to the encroachment of mesic species, such as beech and maple trees. This process, commonly referred to as mesophication, was the focus of our study. Our team performed a feasibility study in using NASA Earth observations to support our end-user partners, Let the Sun Shine In and the US Forest Service, Hoosier National Forest, in their selection of oak-hickory restoration sites. To aid in our analysis of the forest dynamics of southern Indiana, our team used Landsat 5, 8, and 9 imageries, along with other ancillary datasets to create maps to illustrate areas that would most benefit from partners’ forest restoration and management practices. By constructing a Green Vegetation Fraction change map across our 39-year study period (1984-2023) to visualize the change in forest cover and creating a restoration suitability assessment map to reveal sites that met requirements for oak-hickory growth, we provided our partners with suitable site selection for restorative management and found that 3.3% of our entire study area and 4.4% of the Hoosier National Forest were deemed suitable. Our feasibility study benefits southern Indiana restoration by aiding our partners in efficiently selecting sites for prescribed burning, forest thinning, and other restoration management practices.

restoration↗

The Waypoint Planning Tool: Real Time Flight Planning for Airborne Science

NASA Earth science research utilizes both spaceborne and airborne real time observations in the planning and operations of its field campaigns. The coordination of air and space components is critical to achieve the goals and objectives and ensure the success of an experiment. Spaceborne imagery provides regular and continual coverage of the Earth and it is a significant component in all NASA field experiments. Real time visible and infrared geostationary images from GOES satellites and multi-spectral data from the many elements of the NASA suite of instruments aboard the TRMM, Terra, Aqua, Aura, and other NASA satellites have become norm. Similarly, the NASA Airborne Science Program draws upon a rich pool of instrumented aircraft. The NASA McDonnell Douglas DC-8, Lockheed P3 Orion, DeHavilland Twin Otter, King Air B200, Gulfstream-III are all staples of a NASA's well-stocked, versatile hangar. A key component in many field campaigns is coordinating the aircraft with satellite overpasses, other airplanes and the constantly evolving, dynamic weather conditions. Given the variables involved, developing a good flight plan that meets the objectives of the field experiment can be a challenging and time consuming task. Planning a research aircraft mission within the context of meeting the science objectives is complex task because it is much more than flying from point A to B. Flight plans typically consist of flying a series of transects or involve dynamic path changes when "chasing" a hurricane or forest fire. These aircraft flight plans are typically designed by the mission scientists then verified and implemented by the navigator or pilot. Flight planning can be an arduous task requiring frequent sanity checks by the flight crew. This requires real time situational awareness of the weather conditions that affect the aircraft track. Scientists at the University of Alabama-Huntsville and the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center developed the Waypoint Planning Tool, an interactive software tool, that enables scientists to develop their own flight plans (also known as waypoints) with point-and-click mouse capabilities on a digital map draped with real time satellite imagery. The Waypoint Planning Tool has further advanced to include satellite orbit predictions and seamlessly interfaces with the Real Time Mission Monitor which tracks the aircraft s position when the planes are flying. This presentation will describe the capabilities and features of the Waypoint Planning Tool highlighting the real time aspect, interactive nature and the resultant benefits to the airborne science community.

He, Yubin↗