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NASA NTRS2014

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

variability↗
NASA NTRS2014

Local ISM 3D Distribution and Soft X-ray Background Inferences for Nearby Hot Gas

Three-dimensional (3D) interstellar medium (ISM) maps can be used to locate not only interstellar (IS) clouds, but also IS bubbles between the clouds that are blown by stellar winds and supernovae, and are filled by hot gas. To demonstrate this, and to derive a clearer picture of the local ISM, we compare our recent 3D IS dust distribution maps to the ROSAT diffuse Xray background maps after removal of heliospheric emission. In the Galactic plane, there is a good correspondence between the locations and extents of the mapped nearby cavities and the soft (0.25 keV) background emission distribution, showing that most of these nearby cavities contribute to this soft X-ray emission. Assuming a constant dust to gas ratio and homogeneous 106 K hot gas filling the cavities, we modeled in a simple way the 0.25 keV surface brightness along the Galactic plane as seen from the Sun, taking into account the absorption by the mapped clouds. The data-model comparison favors the existence of hot gas in the solar neighborhood, the so-called Local Bubble (LB). The inferred mean pressure in the local cavities is found to be approx.9,400/cu cm K, in agreement with previous studies, providing a validation test for the method. On the other hand, the model overestimates the emission from the huge cavities located in the third quadrant. Using CaII absorption data, we show that the dust to CaII ratio is very small in those regions, implying the presence of a large quantity of lower temperature (non-X-ray emitting) ionized gas and as a consequence a reduction of the volume filled by hot gas, explaining at least part of the discrepancy. In the meridian plane, the two main brightness enhancements coincide well with the LB's most elongated parts and chimneys connecting the LB to the halo, but no particular nearby cavity is found towards the enhancement in the direction of the bright North Polar Spur (NPS) at high latitude. We searched in the 3D maps for the source regions of the higher energy (0.75 keV) enhancements in the fourth and first quadrants. Tunnels and cavities are found to coincide with the main bright areas, however no tunnel nor cavity is found to match the low-latitude b > or approx. 8deg, brightest part of the NPS. In addition, the comparison between the 3D maps and published spectral data favors a NPS central source region location beyond 230 pc, i.e. at larger distance than usually considered. Those examples illustrate the potential use of more detailed 3D distributions of the nearby ISM for the interpretation of the diffuse soft X-ray background.

Xray Emission↗
NASA NTRS2015

Boundary Layer Transition and Trip Effectiveness on an Apollo Capsule in the JAXA High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel (HIEST) Facility

Computational assessments were performed to size boundary layer trips for a scaled Apollo capsule model in the High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel (HIEST) facility at the JAXA Kakuda Space Center in Japan. For stagnation conditions between 2 MJ/kg and 20 MJ/kg and between 10 MPa and 60 MPa, the appropriate trips were determined to be between 0.2 mm and 1.3 mm high, which provided kappa/delta values on the heatshield from 0.15 to 2.25. The tripped configuration consisted of an insert with a series of diamond shaped trips along the heatshield downstream of the stagnation point. Surface heat flux measurements were obtained on a capsule with a 250 mm diameter, 6.4% scale model, and pressure measurements were taken at axial stations along the nozzle walls. At low enthalpy conditions, the computational predictions agree favorably to the test data along the heatshield centerline. However, agreement becomes less favorable as the enthalpy increases conditions. The measured surface heat flux on the heatshield from the HIEST facility was under-predicted by the computations in these cases. Both smooth and tripped configurations were tested for comparison, and a post-test computational analysis showed that kappa/delta values based on the as-measured stagnation conditions ranged between 0.5 and 1.2. Tripped configurations for both 0.6 mm and 0.8 mm trip heights were able to effectively trip the flow to fully turbulent for a range of freestream conditions.

Kirk, Lindsay C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of Spanwise Variable Impedance Liners with Three-Dimensional Aeroacoustics Propagation Codes

Three perforate-over-honeycomb liner configurations, one uniform and two with spanwise variable impedance, are evaluated based on tests conducted in the NASA Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) with a plane-wave source. Although the GFIT is only 2" wide, spanwise impedance variability clearly affects the measured acoustic pressure field, such that three-dimensional (3D) propagation codes are required to properly predict this acoustic pressure field. Three 3D propagation codes (CHE3D, COMSOL, and CDL) are used to predict the sound pressure level and phase at eighty-seven microphones flush-mounted in the GFIT (distributed along all four walls). The CHE3D and COMSOL codes compare favorably with the measured data, regardless of whether an exit acoustic pressure or anechoic boundary condition is employed. Except for those frequencies where the attenuation is large, the CDL code also provides acceptable estimates of the measured acoustic pressure profile. The CHE3D and COMSOL predictions diverge slightly from the measured data for frequencies away from resonance, where the attenuation is noticeably reduced, particularly when an exit acoustic pressure boundary condition is used. For these conditions, the CDL code actually provides slightly more favorable comparison with the measured data. Overall, the comparisons of predicted and measured data suggest that any of these codes can be used to understand data trends associated with spanwise variable-impedance liners.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Silicon-Based Lithium-Ion Capacitor for High Energy and High Power Application

Si-based Li-ion capacitor has been developed and demonstrated. The results show it is feasible to improve both power density and energy density in this configuration. The applied current density impacts the power and energy density: low current favors energy density while high current favors power density. Active carbon has a better rate capability than Si. Next StepsFuture Directions. Si electrode needs to be further studied and improved. Further optimization of SiAC ratio and evaluation of its impact on energy density and power density.

Wu, James J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Calibration of the DSCOVR EPIC Visible and NIR Channels using MODIS Terra and Aqua Data and EPIC Lunar Observations

The unique position of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) at the Lagrange 1 point makes an important addition to the data from currently operating low Earth orbit observing instruments. EPIC instrument does not have an onboard calibration facility. One approach to its calibration is to compare EPIC observations to the measurements from polar-orbiting radiometers. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a natural choice for such comparison due to its well-established calibration record and wide use in remote sensing. We use MODIS Aqua and Terra L1B 1km reflectances to infer calibration coefficients for four EPIC visible and NIR channels: 443, 551, 680 and 780 nm. MODIS and EPIC measurements made between June 2015 and 2016 are employed for comparison. We first identify favorable MODIS pixels with scattering angle matching temporarily collocated EPIC observations. Each EPIC pixel is then spatially collocated to a subset of the favorable MODIS pixels within 25 km radius. Standard deviation of the selected MODIS pixels as well as of the adjacent EPIC pixels is used to find the most homogeneous scenes. These scenes are then used to determine calibration coefficients using a linear regression between EPIC counts/sec and reflectances in the close MODIS spectral channels. We present thus inferred EPIC calibration coefficients and discuss sources of uncertainties. The lunar EPIC observations are used to calibrate EPIC O2 absorbing channels (688 and 764 nm), assuming that there is a small difference between moon reflectances separated by approx.10 nm in wavelength provided the calibration factors of the red (680 nm) and near-IR (780 nm) are known from comparison between EPIC and MODIS.

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Smectite Formation in the Presence of Sulfuric Acid: Implications for Acidic Smectite Formation on Early Mars

The excess of orbital detection of smectite deposits compared to carbonate deposits on the martian surface presents an enigma because smectite and carbonate formations are both favored alteration products of basalt under neutral to alkaline conditions. We propose that Mars experienced acidic events caused by sulfuric acid (H2SO4) that permitted phyllosilicate, but inhibited carbonate, formation. To experimentally verify this hypothesis, we report the first synthesis of smectite from Mars-analogue glass-rich basalt simulant (66 wt% glass, 32 wt% olivine, 2 wt% chromite) in the presence of H2SO4 under hydrothermal conditions (approximately 200 degC). Smectites were analyzed by X-ray diffraction, Mossbauer spectroscopy, visible and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy and electron microprobe to characterize mineralogy and chemical composition. Solution chemistry was determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Basalt simulant suspensions in 11-42 mM H2SO4 were acidic with pH less than or equal to 2 at the beginning of incubation and varied from acidic (pH 1.8) to mildly alkaline (pH 8.4) at the end of incubation. Alteration of glass phase during reaction of the basalt simulant with H2SO4 led to formation of the dioctahedral smectite at final pH approximately 3 and trioctahedral smectite saponite at final pH approximately 4 and higher. Anhydrite and hematite formed in the final pH range from 1.8 to 8.4 while natroalunite was detected at pH 1.8. Hematite was precipitated as a result of oxidative dissolution of olivine present in Adirondack basalt simulant. Formation of secondary phases, including smectite, resulted in release of variable amounts of Si, Mg, Na and Ca while solubilization of Al and Fe was low. Comparison of mineralogical and solution chemistry data indicated that the type of smectite (i.e., dioctahedral vs trioctahedral) was likely controlled by Mg leaching from altering basalt and substantial Mg loss created favorable conditions for formation of dioctahedral smectite. We present a model for global-scale smectite formation on Mars via acid-sulfate conditions created by the volcanic outgassing of SO2 in the Noachian and early Hesperian.

Smectite↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were approximately 0.96 degrees Centigrade above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about 0.42 degrees Centigrade from a long-term upward trend and the rest (around 80 percent) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from ENSO was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005-2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005-2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC were key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Proposal for A Lean, Fast Mars Round-Trip Mission Architecture: Using Current Technologies for A Human Mission to Mars In The 2030s

We present a lean-minded, fast-transfer mission strategy and architecture concept for a first human mission to Mars that deliberately utilizes a current-technology-favored approach by means of introducing and quantitatively dening two pivotal parameters: 1) an end-to-end Mars mission duration of approximately one year, and 2) a deep space habitat of approximately 4050 metric tons. These parameters are identified and introduced by a 2012 deep space habitat study conducted at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) that focused on a subset of recognized high-engineering-risk factors that may otherwise inhibit or encumber remote space travel to destinations such as Mars or near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Additional constraints in the study favoring current technology and a lean-minded (very short) surface stay on Mars are shown to offer such Mars mission opportunities in the 2030s, enabled by a combination of on-orbit staging, mission element pre-positioning, and unique round-trip trajectories identied by state-of-the-art astrodynamics algorithms.

Architecture↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2018

Applications of Parallel-Element, Embedded Mesh-Cap Acoustic Liner Concepts

This study explores progress achieved with 2DOF, 3DOF, and MDOF acoustic liners constructed with mesh caps embedded within a honeycomb core. These liner configurations offer potential for broadband noise reduction, and are suitable for conventional aircraft implementation. Samples for each configuration are tested in the NASA normal incidence tube and grazing flow impedance tube, with and without a wire mesh facesheet. Impedances based on these measured data compare favorably with those predicted using a transmission line impedance prediction model. Predicted impedances are then used as input for an aeroacoustic propagation code to compute axial acoustic pressure distributions in the grazing flow tube. These predicted distributions compare favorably with the corresponding measured distributions at frequencies away from the frequency of peak attenuation, but suffer slight degradation for frequencies very near the peak attenuation frequency, where the predicted results are sensitive to input impedance changes. As expected, the noise reduction frequency range increases as more degrees of freedom are included. Although the specific results achieved herein may differ from those that would be achieved with other 2DOF, 3DOF, and MDOF liners, this comparison highlights some of the key features that can be exploited in the design of parallel-element, embedded mesh-cap liners.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Methane, Carbon Monoxide, and Ammonia in Brown Dwarfs and Self-Luminous Giant Planets

We address disequilibrum abundances of some simple molecules in the atmospheres of solar composition brown dwarfs and self-luminous extrasolar giant planets using a kinetics-based 1D atmospheric chemistry model. Our approach is to use the full kinetics model to survey the parameter space with effective temperatures between 500 K and 1100 K. In all of these worlds equilibrium chemistry favors CH4 over CO in the parts of the atmosphere that can be seen from Earth, but in most disequilibrium favors CO. The small surface gravity of a planet strongly discriminates against CH4 when compared to an otherwise comparable brown dwarf. If vertical mixing is like Jupiter's, the transition from methane to CO occurs at 500 K in a planet. Sluggish vertical mixing can raise this to 600 K; clouds or more vigorous vertical mixing could lower this to 400 K. The comparable thresholds in brown dwarfs are 1100±100 K. Ammonia is also sensitive to gravity, but unlike CH4/CO, the NH3/N2 ratio is insensitive to mixing, which makes NH3 a potential proxy for gravity. HCN may become interesting in high gravity brown dwarfs with very strong vertical mixing. Detailed analysis of the CO-CH4 reaction network reveals that the bottleneck to CO hydrogenation goes through methanol, in partial agreement with previous work. Simple, easy to use quenching relations are derived by fitting to the complete chemistry of the full ensemble of models. These relations are valid for determining CO, CH4, NH3, HCN, and CO2 abundances in the range of self-luminous worlds we have studied but may not apply if atmospheres are strongly heated at high altitudes by processes not considered here (e.g., wave breaking).

Planets and satellites↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thirsty Walls: A New Paradigm for Air Revitalization in Life Support

This Phase I project Summary will be formatted as a series of summary statements, with additional comments. The summary statements are intended to focus on the most significant findings and discoveries – things that the project team knows now, but we didn’t know at the beginning of the project: 1) Direct Contact Between Gases is an ECLS (Environmental Control and Life Support) System enabling capability; 2) CO2 capture using liquid sorbents in microgravity is feasible; 3) There are other ways to contact gases and liquids – but thin film capillary techniques are new, exciting, and have amazing potential; 4) ECLS system reliability is the key to exploration missions – the key to reliability is having system attributes that favor reliability; 5) The processes with favorable reliability attributes tend to be biological; 6) The single greatest impact on launch mass of an ECLS system is water. The best way to enable biological water processing is to develop a capillary based method of urine capture that doesn’t use pretreat chemicals; 7) There is good, promising, forward design and development work – but no fundamental “show stoppers” – to develop a thin film liquid sorbent CO2 capture system; 8) The most capable Ionic Liquids are not presently feasible, but other chemically active liquids can be used to make an effective thin film CO2 capture device; 9) The C9 reduced gravity flight showed feasibility – and taught us about flow instability issues; 10) Capillary fluid management has ECLS system wide implications.

CO2↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

El Nino↗
NASA NTRS2019

Rethinking CO Antibiosignatures in the Search for Life Beyond the Solar System

Some atmospheric gases have been proposed as counter indicators to the presence of life on an exoplanet if remotely detectable at sufficient abundance (i.e., antibiosignatures), informing the search for biosignatures and potentially fingerprinting uninhabited habitats. However, the quantitative extent to which putative antibiosignatures could exist in the atmospheres of inhabited planets is not well understood. The most commonly referenced potential antibiosignature is CO, because it represents a source of free energy and reduced carbon that is readily exploited by life on Earth and is thus often assumed to accumulate only in the absence of life. Yet, biospheres actively produce CO through biomass burning, photooxidation processes, and release of gases that are photochemically converted into CO in the atmosphere. We demonstrate with a 1D ecosphere-atmosphere model that reducing biospheres can maintain CO levels of approximately 100 ppmv (parts per million by volume) even at low H2 fluxes due to the impact of hybrid photosynthetic ecosystems. Additionally, we show that photochemistry around M dwarf stars is particularly favorable for the buildup of CO, with plausible concentrations for inhabited, oxygen-rich planets extending from hundreds of ppm to several percent. Since CH4 buildup is also favored on these worlds, and because O2 and O3 are likely not detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope, the presence of high CO (greater than 100 ppmv) may discriminate between oxygen-rich and reducing biospheres with near-future transmission observations. These results suggest that spectroscopic detection of CO can be compatible with the presence of life and that a comprehensive contextual assessment is required to validate the significance of potential antibiosignatures.

Earth↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96°C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42°C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2016

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2019

Tropopause Laminar Cirrus and Its Role in the Lower Stratosphere Total Water Budget

Laminar cirrus are thin, extensive, isolated layers of ice clouds frequently observed in the tropical tropopause layer. Widespread laminar cirrus significantly affects tropical tropopause layer total water and thermal budget. In this study, we extract laminar cirrus from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization Level 1 attenuated total backscatter images for January 2009, in order to characterize statistical properties of laminar cirrus cloud length, base, thickness, optical depth, and layer partial ice water path. These characteristics are used to develop an algorithm identifying laminar cirrus automatically from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization Level 2 layer product for 2008–2017. The nearly 10‐year records reveal that tropopause laminar cirrus occurrence (30–40% of total cirrus) is strongly anticorrelated with the tropopause temperatures in that colder tropopause in frequent (super)saturation during boreal winter favors in situ formation of clouds. Interannually, anomalously warmer troposphere temperature (ΔT), easterly shear of the quasi‐biennial oscillation, and stronger upwelling branch of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation enhance laminar cirrus formation via cooling of the tropopause. The tropopause laminar cirrus carries ~0.05 mg/m(exp 3) (~0.5 ppmv) of ice water content during boreal winter and <0.01 mg/m(exp 3) during summer, which is anticorrelated with the seasonal variations of water vapor (H2O) observed by the Microwave Lime Sounder, indicating a temperature‐regulated partition between vapor and ice. Interannually, in cirrus‐rich region 1 ppmv decrease in H2O corresponds to 0.2–0.3 ppmv increase in ice water content. Frequently situated in (super)saturated air, tropopause laminar cirrus are likely to survive multiple lifecycles of the sublimation‐deposition processes, and may contribute up to 10% to the total water budget in the lower stratosphere. Satellites constantly observe thin, isolated, extensive layer of cirrus around the tropopause. The so‐called “laminar” cirrus occurrence and their ice amount are strongly regulated by temperature, such that colder temperatures favor more frequent (super)saturation, which results in more frequent laminar cirrus with more ice amount and therefore less water vapor. In this study we analyze laminar cirrus and water vapor from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Microwave Lime Sounder observations, and hypothesize that laminar cirrus could act as an important transient water storage and contribute to the total water budget in the lower stratosphere.

Tao Wang↗