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At least 289 records · Page 16

The associations between environmental quality and preterm birth in the United States, 2000–2005: a cross-sectional analysis

Many environmental factors have been independently associated with preterm birth (PTB). However, exposure is not isolated to a single environmental factor, but rather to many positive and negative factors that co-occur. Furthermore, the environmental quality index (EQI), a measure of cumulative environmental exposure across all US counties from 2000—2005, was used to investigate associations between ambient environment and PTB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Astronauts Plasma-Derived Exosomes Induced Aberrant EZH2-Mediated H3K27me3 Epigenetic Regulation of the Vitamin D Receptor

There are unique stressors in the spaceflight environment. Exposure to such stressors may be associated with adverse effects on astronauts' health, including increased cancer and cardiovascular disease risks. Small extracellular vesicles (sEVs, i.e., exosomes) play a vital role in intercellular communication and regulate various biological processes contributing to their role in disease pathogenesis. To assess whether spaceflight alters sEVs transcriptome profile, sEVs were isolated from the blood plasma of 3 astronauts at two different time points: 10 days before launch (L-10) and 3 days after return (R+3) from the Shuttle mission. AC16 cells (human cardiomyocyte cell line) were treated with L-10 and R+3 astronauts-derived exosomes for 24 h. Total RNA was isolated and analyzed for gene expression profiling using Affymetrix microarrays. Enrichment analysis was performed using Enrichr. Furthermore, transcription factor (TF) enrichment analysis using the ENCODE/ChEA Consensus TF database identified gene sets related to the polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) and Vitamin D receptor (VDR) in AC16 cells treated with R+3 compared to cells treated with L-10 astronauts-derived exosomes. Further analysis of the histone modifications using datasets from the Roadmap Epigenomics Project confirmed enrichment in gene sets related to the H3K27me3 repressive mark. Interestingly, analysis of previously published H3K27me3–chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-Seq) ENCODE datasets showed enrichment of H3K27me3 in the VDR promoter. Collectively, our results suggest that astronaut-derived sEVs may epigenetically repress the expression of the VDR in human adult cardiomyocytes by promoting the activation of the PRC2 complex and H3K27me3 levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NREL Suite of Tools for PV and Storage Analysis

Many different factors such as the solar resource, technology costs and incentives, utility cost and consumption, space available, and financial parameters impact the technical and economic potential of a PV project. NREL has developed techno-economic modeling tools that can be used to evaluate PV projects at a site.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

System and method for automated extraction of high resolution structural dynamics from video

A method for extracting vibrational modes of a structure includes: receiving a plurality of video frames, each of the video frames including a plurality of pixels; decomposing each of the video frames on a plurality of spatial scales in accordance with complex steerable pyramid filters to obtain a filter response for each of the spatial scales; computing a plurality of local phases of the pixels of each frame; removing a temporal mean from each frame to obtain a plurality of factored vibration motion functions; performing principal component analysis on the factored vibration motion functions to obtain principal components; blind source separating the principal components to compute a plurality of modal coordinates; computing frequency and damping ratios in accordance with the modal coordinates; and outputting the computed frequency and damping ratios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Local Failure in Resected N1 Lung Cancer: Implications for Adjuvant Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate actuarial rates of local failure in patients with pathologic N1 non-small-cell lung cancer and to identify clinical and pathologic factors associated with an increased risk of local failure after resection. Methods and Materials: All patients who underwent surgery for non-small-cell lung cancer with pathologically confirmed N1 disease at Duke University Medical Center from 1995-2008 were identified. Patients receiving any preoperative therapy or postoperative radiotherapy or with positive surgical margins were excluded. Local failure was defined as disease recurrence within the ipsilateral hilum, mediastinum, or bronchial stump/staple line. Actuarial rates of local failure were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox multivariate analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with a higher risk of local recurrence. Results: Among 1,559 patients who underwent surgery during the time interval, 198 met the inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 50 (25%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. Actuarial (5-year) rates of local failure, distant failure, and overall survival were 40%, 55%, and 33%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of local failure included a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery approach (hazard ratio [HR], 2.5; p = 0.01), visceral pleural invasion (HR, 2.1; p = 0.04), and increasing number of positive N1 lymph nodes (HR, 1.3 per involved lymph node; p = 0.02). Chemotherapy was associated with a trend toward decreased risk of local failure that was not statistically significant (HR, 0.61; p = 0.2). Conclusions: Actuarial rates of local failure in pN1 disease are high. Further investigation of conformal postoperative radiotherapy may be warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

What Factors Drive Air Pollutants in China? An Analysis from the Perspective of Regional Difference Using a Combined Method of Production Decomposition Analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index

Air pollution in China attracts the world’s attention, so it is important to study its driving factors for air pollutants. The combined Production Decomposition Analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (PDA–LMDI) model is applied to construct a regional contribution index in this study to explore the regional differences in factors affecting sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and particulate matter with diameter not greater than 2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) from 2005 to 2015 in China. The regional emission coefficient had a great inhibitory effect, which reduced SO 2 , NO x , and PM 2.5 by 25,364.9, 10,449.3, and 11,295.3 kilotons (kt) from 2005 to 2015, respectively. For this inhibitory effect, the degree to emission reduction was great for North and East China, followed by South and Central China, and small for Southwest. Northwest. and Northeast China. The regional technical efficiency, technology improvement, capital-energy substitution and labor-energy substitution effects each reduced SO 2 , NO x , and PM 2.5 by about 3500, 3100, and 1500 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. For the regional technical efficiency and technology improvement effects, the degree to emission reduction was great in East and Central China, and small in South Northwest and Northeast China. For the regional capital- and labor-energy substitution effects, the degree of emission reduction was great for North East and Central China, and small for Northwest and South China. The regional output proportion effect increased SO 2 , NO x , and PM 2.5 by 1211.2, 320.1, and 277.8 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. The national economic growth had a relatively great promoting effect and increased SO 2 , NO x , and PM 2.5 by 26,445.5, 23,827.5, and 11,925.5 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. Each region should formulate relevant policies and measures for emission reduction according to local conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Safety of Repeated Yttrium-90 Radioembolization

Purpose: Repeated radioembolization (RE) treatments carry theoretically higher risk of radiation-induced hepatic injury because of the liver's cumulative memory of previous exposure. We performed a retrospective safety analysis on patients who underwent repeated RE. Methods: From 2004 to 2011, a total of 247 patients were treated by RE. Eight patients (5 men, 3 women, age range 51-71 years) underwent repeated treatment of a targeted territory, all with resin microspheres (SIR-Spheres; Sirtex, Lane Cove, Australia). Adverse events were graded during a standardized follow-up. In addition, the correlation between the occurrence of RE-induced liver disease (REILD) and multiple variables was investigated in univariate and multivariate analyses in all 247 patients who received RE. Results: Two patients died shortly after the second treatment (at 84 and 107 days) with signs and symptoms of REILD. Both patients underwent whole liver treatment twice (cumulative doses 3.08 and 2.66 GBq). The other 6 patients demonstrated only minor toxicities after receiving cumulative doses ranging from 2.41 to 3.88 GBq. All patients experienced objective tumor responses. In the whole population, multifactorial analysis identified three risk factors associated with REILD: repeated RE (p = 0.036), baseline serum total bilirubin (p = 0.048), and baseline serum aspartate aminotransferase (p = 0.043). Repeated RE proved to be the only independent risk factor for REILD in multivariate analysis (odds ratio 9.6; p = 0.002). Additionally, the administered activity per target volume (in GBq/L) was found to be an independent risk factor for REILD, but only in whole liver treatments (p = 0.033). Conclusion: The risk of REILD appears to be elevated for repeated RE. Objective tumor responses were observed, but establishment of safety limits will require improvement in dosimetric measurement and prediction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Incidence of Leukoencephalopathy After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy for Brain Metastases

Purpose: To evaluate the incidence of leukoencephalopathy after whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in patients with brain metastases. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 111 patients who underwent WBRT for brain metastases from April 2001 through March 2008 and had evaluable computed tomography (CT) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at least 1 month after completion of WBRT. We evaluated the leukoencephalopathy according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. The patients who had brain tumor recurrence after WBRT were censored at the last follow-up CT or MRI without recurrence. To evaluate the risk factors for leukoencephalopathy, bivariate analysis was performed using a logistic regression analysis adjusted for follow-up time. Factors included in the analysis were age, gender, dose fractionation, 5-fluorouracil, methotrexate, cisplatin, and other chemotherapeutic agents. Results: The median age of the 111 patients was 60.0 years (range, 23-89 years). The median follow-up was 3.8 months (range, 1.0-38.1 months). Leukoencephalopathy developed in 23 of the 111 patients. Grades 1, 2, and 3 were observed in 8, 7, and 8 patients, respectively. The incidence was 34.4% (11 of 32), 42.9% (6 of 14), 66.7% (2 of 3), and 100% (2 of 2) of the patients who were followed up for ≥6, ≥12, ≥24, and ≥36 months, respectively. In the bivariate analysis, older age (≥65 years) was significantly correlated with higher risk of leukoencephalopathy (odds ratio 3.31; 95% confidence interval 1.15-9.50; P=.03). Conclusions: The incidence of leukoencephalopathy after WBRT was 34.4% with ≥6 months follow-up, and increased with longer follow-up. Older age was a significant risk factor. The schedule of WBRT for patients with brain metastases should be carefully determined, especially for favorable patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The Effect of Endovascular Revascularization of Common Iliac Artery Occlusions on Erectile Function

To determine the incidence of erectile dysfunction in patients with common iliac artery (CIA) occlusive disease and the effect of revascularization on erectile function using the sexual health inventory for males (SHIM) questionnaire. All patients (35 men; mean age 57 {+-} 5 years; range 42-67 years) were asked to recall their sexual function before and 1 month after iliac recanalization. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables effecting improvement of impotence. The incidence of impotence in patients with CIA occlusion was 74% (26 of 35) preoperatively. Overall 16 (46%) of 35 patients reported improved erectile function after iliac recanalization. The rate of improvement of impotence was 61.5% (16 of 26 impotent patients). Sixteen patients (46%), including seven with normal erectile function before the procedure, had no change. Three patients (8%) reported deterioration of their sexual function, two of whom (6%) had normal erectile function before the procedure. The median SHIM score increased from 14 (range 4-25) before the procedure to 20 (range 1-25) after the procedure (P = 0.005). The type of recanalization, the age of the patients, and the length of occlusion were related to erectile function improvement in univariate analysis. However, these factors were not independent factors for improvement of erectile dysfunction in multivariate analysis (P > 0.05). Endovascular recanalization of CIA occlusions clearly improves sexual function. More than half of the patients with erectile dysfunction who underwent endovascular recanalization of the CIA experienced improvement.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The overview in safety review of human factors engineering and control room design in chinese AP1000 nuclear power plant - 174

The first AP1000 nuclear power plant is constructed in Sanmen county in Zhejiang Province in China, which has creative and distinctive design characteristics. Human factors engineering disciplines are applied to the design of the AP1000. In addition to the elements of the program review model(including human factors engineering program management, operating experience review, functional requirements analysis and allocation, task analysis, staffing, integration of human reliability analysis with human factors engineering, human system interface design, procedure development, training program development, human system interface verification and validation, design implementation, human performance monitoring),the minimum inventory of controls, displays, and alarms present in the main control room and at the remote shutdown workstation. These contents mentioned above are reviewed according to standards, rules and regulations. This article introduces review process, and several important issues during the reviewing are described in detail. These issues include many elements, such as operating experience review, task analysis, human system interface design, verification and validation,and so on. This paper emphasizes on the main control room design(including environment and layout). Background noise in the actual main control room may exceed too much to design value. Another important issue is about main control room habitability systems(VES) changes to satisfy post-actuation performance requirements in AP1000 design change proposal. All the wall panel displays will be closed in this design change proposal. Review process and proposal are described in the paper. Since the AP1000 unit in China is the first constructed all over the world, verification and validation are especially important and necessary. The plan of verification and validation, the results summary report of verification and validation, the report of human engineering discrepancies are focus attention. Verification and validation in human factors engineering include HSI task support verification, HFE design verification and integrated system validation. This paper introduces the review process of verification and validation, the issues found in verification and validation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit

This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Synthesis and Structure Determination of Ferromagnetic Semiconductors LaAMnSnO6 (A = Sr Ba)

LaAMnSnO{sub 6} (A = Sr, Ba) have been synthesized by high temperature solid-state reactions under dynamic 1% H{sub 2}/Ar flow. Rietveld refinements on room temperature powder X-ray diffraction data indicate that LaSrMnSnO{sub 6} crystallizes in the GdFeO{sub 3}-structure, with space group Pnma and, combined with transmission electron microscopy, LaBaMnSnO{sub 6} in Imma. Both space groups are common in disordered double-perovskites. The Mn{sup 3+} and Sn{sup 4+} ions whose valence states were confirmed by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, are completely disordered over the B-sites and the BO{sub 6} octahedra are slightly distorted. LaAMnSnO{sub 6} are ferromagnetic semiconductors with a T{sub C} = 83 K for the Sr- and 66 K for the Ba-compound. The title compounds, together with the previously reported LaCaMnSnO{sub 6} provide an interesting example of progression from Pnma to Imma as the tolerance factor increases. An analysis of the relationship between space group and tolerance factor for the series LaAMnMO{sub 6} (A = Ca, Sr, Ba; M = Sn, Ru) provides a better understanding of the symmetry determination for double perovskites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fast response of electron-scale turbulence to auxiliary heating cessation in National Spherical Torus Experiment

In this letter, we report the first observation of the fast response of electron-scale turbulence to auxiliary heating cessation in National Spherical Torus eXperiment [Ono et al., Nucl. Fusion 40, 557 (2000)]. The observation was made in a set of RF-heated L-mode plasmas with toroidal magnetic field of 0.55 T and plasma current of 300 kA. It is observed that electron-scale turbulence spectral power (measured with a high-k collective microwave scattering system) decreases significantly following fast cessation of RF heating that occurs in less than 200 μs. The large drop in the turbulence spectral power has a short time delay of about 1–2 ms relative to the RF cessation and happens on a time scale of 0.5–1 ms, much smaller than the energy confinement time of about 10 ms. Power balance analysis shows a factor of about 2 decrease in electron thermal diffusivity after the sudden drop of turbulence spectral power. Measured small changes in equilibrium profiles across the RF cessation are unlikely able to explain this sudden reduction in the measured turbulence and decrease in electron thermal transport, supported by local linear stability analysis and both local and global nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. The observations imply that nonlocal flux-driven mechanism may be important for the observed turbulence and electron thermal transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impact of Postmastectomy Radiation on Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer Patients With 1-3 Positive Lymph Nodes Treated With Modern Systemic Therapy

Purpose: Postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) remains controversial for patients with 1-3 positive lymph nodes (LN+). Methods and Materials: We conducted a retrospective review of all 369 breast cancer patients with 1-3 LN+ who underwent mastectomy without neoadjuvant systemic therapy between 2000 and 2007 at Cleveland Clinic. Results: We identified 271 patients with 1-3 LN+ who did not receive PMRT and 98 who did receive PMRT. The median follow-up time was 5.2 years, and the median number of LN dissected was 11. Of those not treated with PMRT, 79% received adjuvant chemotherapy (of whom 70% received a taxane), 79% received hormonal therapy, and 5% had no systemic therapy. Of the Her2/neu amplified tumors, 42% received trastuzumab. The 5-year rate of locoregional recurrence (LRR) was 8.9% without PMRT vs 0% with PMRT (P=.004). For patients who did not receive PMRT, univariate analysis showed 6 risk factors significantly (P<.05) correlated with LRR: estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor negative (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6), lymphovascular invasion (HR 2.4), 2-3 LN+ (HR 2.6), nodal ratio >25% (HR 2.7), extracapsular extension (ECE) (HR 3.7), and Bloom-Richardson grade III (HR 3.1). The 5-year LRR rate was 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%-6.8%] for patients with 0-1 risk factor vs 14.6% [95% CI, 8.4%-20.9%] for patients with {>=}2 risk factors (P=.0006), respectively. On multivariate analysis, ECE (HR 4.3, P=.0006) and grade III (HR 3.6, P=.004) remained significant risk factors for LRR. The 5-year LRR was 4.1% in patients with neither grade III nor ECE, 8.1% with either grade III or ECE, and 50.4% in patients with both grade III and ECE (P<.0001); the corresponding 5-year distant metastasis-free survival rates were 91.8%, 85.4%, and 59.1% (P=.0004), respectively. Conclusions: PMRT offers excellent control for patients with 1-3 LN+, with no locoregional failures to date. Patients with 1-3 LN+ who have grade III disease and/or ECE should be strongly considered for PMRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Prostate-Specific Antigen at 4 to 5 Years After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy Is a Strong Predictor of Disease-Free Survival

Purpose: To determine (1) the prognostic utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at 45 to 60 months (48mPSA) after low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB); (2) the predictors of 48mPSA; and (3) the prognostic utility of directional trends between PSA levels at 24, 36, and 48 months after LDR-PB. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2008, 2223 patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer received LDR-PB monotherapy. A cohort of 1434 of these patients was identified with a documented 48mPSA and no evidence of disease relapse prior to the 48mPSA. In addition, a subset of this cohort (n=585) was identified with ≥72 months of follow-up and documented PSA values at both 24 and 36 months after implantation. Results: Median follow-up time was 76 months. Eight-year Kaplan-Meier disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 100% vs 73.4% for patients with 48mPSA ≤0.2 vs those with >0.2 ng/mL; 99.1% versus 53.8% for a 48mPSA threshold of ≤0.4 versus >0.4 ng/mL, respectively; and 97.3% versus 0% for a threshold of ≤1.0 versus >1.0 ng/mL, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the only factor predictive of DFS was 48mPSA (P<.0001). On subset analysis (n=585), 29 patients had a PSA rise (defined as >0.2 ng/mL) between 24 and 36 months, 24 patients had a rise between 36 and 48 months, and 11 patients had rises over both intervals. Failure rates in these patients were 52%, 79%, and 100%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, initial PSA, androgen deprivation therapy, and dose to 90% of the prostate significantly correlated with 48mPSA but together accounted for only ∼5% of its total variance. Conclusions: The 48mPSA after LDR-PB is highly predictive of long-term DFS. Patients with 48mPSA ≤0.4 ng/mL had a <1% risk of disease relapse at 8 years, whereas all patients with 48mPSA >1.0 ng/mL relapsed. Consecutive PSA rises of >0.2 ng/mL from 24 to 36 months and from 36 to 48 months were also highly predictive of subsequent failure.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Planning Target Volume D95 and Mean Dose Should Be Considered for Optimal Local Control for Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To identify the optimal dose parameters predictive for local/lobar control after stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: This study encompassed a total of 1092 patients (1200 lesions) with NSCLC of clinical stage T1-T2 N0M0 who were treated with SABR of 50 Gy in 4 fractions or 70 Gy in 10 fractions, depending on tumor location/size, using computed tomography-based heterogeneity corrections and a convolution superposition calculation algorithm. Patients were monitored by chest CT or positron emission tomography/CT and/or biopsy after SABR. Factors predicting local/lobar recurrence (LR) were determined by competing risk multivariate analysis. Continuous variables were divided into 2 subgroups at cutoff values identified by receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: At a median follow-up time of 31.7 months (interquartile range, 14.8-51.3 months), the 5-year time to local recurrence within the same lobe and overall survival rates were 93.8% and 44.8%, respectively. Total cumulative number of patients experiencing LR was 40 (3.7%), occurring at a median time of 14.4 months (range, 4.8-46 months). Using multivariate competing risk analysis, independent predictive factors for LR after SABR were minimum biologically effective dose (BED{sub 10}) to 95% of planning target volume (PTVD95 BED{sub 10}) ≤86 Gy (corresponding to PTV D95 physics dose of 42 Gy in 4 fractions or 55 Gy in 10 fractions) and gross tumor volume ≥8.3 cm{sup 3}. The PTVmean BED{sub 10} was highly correlated with PTVD95 BED{sub 10.} In univariate analysis, a cutoff of 130 Gy for PTVmean BED{sub 10} (corresponding to PTVmean physics dose of 55 Gy in 4 fractions or 75 Gy in 10 fractions) was also significantly associated with LR. Conclusions: In addition to gross tumor volume, higher radiation dose delivered to the PTV predicts for better local/lobar control. We recommend that both PTVD95 BED{sub 10} >86 Gy and PTVmean BED{sub 10} >130 Gy should be considered for SABR plan optimization.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Impact of meteorological factors on mumps and potential effect modifiers: An analysis of 10 cities in Guangxi, Southern China

Highlights: • A total of 183,341 cases from 10 cities, daily weather data and 10 socioeconomic factors were included in the analysis. • Mean temperature and wind velocity are associated with the elevated risks of mumps incidence. • Male and adolescent aged 5–14 y are the most sensitive population to extreme weather conditions. • Several socioeconomic indicators may have a certain degree of modification on the climate-related incidence of mumps. In the current context of global climate change, understanding the impact of climate on respiratory infectious diseases such as mumps and the potential modified factors is crucial, especially in developing countries. However, research on the climate-related incidence of mumps is rare, inconsistent and mainly limited to a single city or region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2 -EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulative CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2 -oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2 -EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.

02 PETROLEUM↗