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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Construction of Women’s All-Around Speed Skating Event Performance Prediction Model and Competition Strategy Analysis Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Introduction Accurately predicting the competitive performance of elite athletes is an essential prerequisite for formulating competitive strategies. Women’s all-around speed skating event consists of four individual subevents, and the competition system is complex and challenging to make accurate predictions on their performance. Objective The present study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of machine learning algorithms for predicting the performance of women’s all-around speed skating event and provide effective training and competition strategies. Methods The data, consisting of 16 seasons of world-class women’s all-around speed skating competition results, used in the present study came from the International Skating Union (ISU). According to the competition rules, distinct features are filtered using lasso regression, and a 5,000 m race model and a medal model are built using a fivefold cross-validation method. Results The results showed that the support vector machine model was the most stable among the 5,000 m race and the medal models, with the highest AUC (0.86, 0.81, respectively). Furthermore, 3,000 m points are the main characteristic factors that decide whether an athlete can qualify for the final. The 11th lap of the 5,000 m, the second lap of the 500 m, and the fourth lap of the 1,500 m are the main characteristic factors that affect the athlete’s ability to win medals. Conclusion Compared with logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, neural network, support vector machine is a more viable algorithm to establish the performance prediction model of women’s all-around speed skating event; excellent performance in the 3,000 m event can facilitate athletes to advance to the final, and athletes with outstanding performance in the 500 m event are more likely competitive for medals.

Liu, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Search for IceCube Events in the Direction of ANITA Neutrino Candidates

During the first three flights of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment, the collaboration detected several neutrino candidates. Two of these candidate events were consistent with an ultra-high-energy upgoing air shower and compatible with a tau neutrino interpretation. A third neutrino candidate event was detected in a search for Askaryan radiation in the Antarctic ice, although it is also consistent with the background expectation. The inferred emergence angle of the first two events is in tension with IceCube and ANITA limits on isotropic cosmogenic neutrino fluxes. Here we test the hypothesis that these events are astrophysical in origin, possibly caused by a point source in the reconstructed direction. Given that any ultra-high-energy tau neutrino flux traversing the Earth should be accompanied by a secondary flux in the TeV-PeV range, we search for these secondary counterparts in 7 yr of IceCube data using three complementary approaches. In the absence of any significant detection, we set upper limits on the neutrino flux from potential point sources. Finally, we compare these limits to ANITA's sensitivity in the same direction and show that an astrophysical explanation of these anomalous events under standard model assumptions is severely constrained regardless of source spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Persistent Elevated Soot Emissions Induced by Clustered Stochastic Preignition Events

Stochastic Preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can occur in spark-ignition engines particularly under high-load operation. SPI is characterized by uncontrolled initiation of combustion prior to spark discharge, an abnormal combustion process that can lead to severe knock events and significant engine damage. SPI has been associated with fuel properties, lubricant composition, and engine design and operation. Here, in this work, a single-cylinder test engine with a dry-sump oil system was utilized to study the SPI response of E10 and E25 fuels with a range of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP). An automated test procedure was employed, consisting of ten square-waved load profile segments, with each segment composed of 5 min of low-load operation followed by 25 min of sustained high-load operation. These tests were replicated across multiple days of testing including a lubricant triple flush between tests, and an online Fuel in Oil diagnostic measurement. Exhaust particulate emissions were continuously measured by an AVL microsoot sensor (MSS). Elevated particulate matter emissions were observed to occur concurrently with SPI events as blooms of soot. Particularly after clustered events (i.e., multiple SPI cycles occurring within 10 consecutive engine cycles), high soot emissions were observed to persist over several days of sequential operation despite daily lubricant changes, a complete warm-up procedure, and sustained low-load operation between test segments. This result implies that the particulate emissions trends may be dominated by deposit-based effects, where higher load operation is needed to alter deposition and formation processes. The observed soot blooms were also found to correspond to a reduction in the engine fueling and the fuel engine oil dilution rate despite the engine exhaust remaining at stoichiometric exhaust operation. These observations suggest that post-SPI events, pathways for lubricant migration and consumption into the combustion chamber may occur until these pathways are closed from deposit formation or ring dynamics during extended operation. These observed sooting propensity persisted with all fuels tests, but a linear correlation was observed between the summation of soot and particulate matter index (PMI) value for each fuel as well as SPI events, proving that PMI is a crucial fuel property for reducing SPI.

Splitter, Derek [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding predefined thresholds. When evaluated using historical data over the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), the technique credibly finds RoS events in published literature and flags events that are followed by anomalously high streamflow as measured by gauge data along the river. When comparing four different datasets representing the same 21-year period, we find large differences in RoS event magnitude and frequency, primarily driven by differences in estimated surface runoff and snowmelt. Using dataset-specific thresholds improves agreement between datasets but does not account for all discrepancies. We show that factors such as meteorological forcing and coupling frequency, as well as choice of land surface model, play roles in how data products capture these compound extremes and suggest care is to be taken when climate datasets are used by stakeholders for operational decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Anomalous Events in Electronic Health Records

Over the past decade, Health Information Technology (Health IT) has enabled an explosion in the amount of digital information stored in electronic health records (EHRs). According to recent studies, safety-related issues in healthcare can present themselves as anomalies in EHR data. Motivating examples of anomalous events in EHRs include clinical events related to invalid order cancellations or rejections, which may be initiated by clinical staff or automatic software routines in Health IT systems. Such events may be detected using anomaly detection or change point detection methods. In this paper, we explore the use of a forecasting approach to detect anomalies in EHR data using an online Support Vector Regression technique. Specifically, the proposed approach uses temporal frequency of activities in EHRs, coupled with dynamic robust confidence intervals, to characterize events as normal or anomalous. Once an event is characterized as an anomaly, our approach suppresses its effects in subsequent time intervals. The proposed approach shows encouraging results using real-world EHR data from the Veterans Affairs' corporate data warehouse

Pellett, Jordan J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

SENSEI: Characterization of Single-Electron Events Using a Skipper-CCD

We use a science-grade Skipper Charge Coupled Device (Skipper-CCD) operating in a low-radiation background environment to develop a semi-empirical model that characterizes the origin of single-electron events in CCDs. We identify, separate, and quantify three independent contributions to the single-electron events, which were previously bundled together and classified as ``dark counts'': dark current, amplifier light, and spurious charge. We measure a dark current, which depends on exposure, of (5.89+-0.77)x10^-4 e-/pix/day, and an unprecedentedly low spurious charge contribution of (1.52+-0.07)x10^-4 e-/pix, which is exposure-independent. In addition, we provide a technique to study events produced by light emitted from the amplifier, which allows the detector's operation to be optimized to minimize this effect to a level below the dark-current contribution. Our accurate characterization of the single-electron events allows one to greatly extend the sensitivity of experiments searching for dark matter or coherent neutrino scattering. Moreover, an accurate understanding of the origin of single-electron events is critical to further progress in ongoing R&D efforts of Skipper and conventional CCDs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable Joint Event-Particle Reconstruction for Neutrino Physics at NOvA with Sparse CNNs and Transformers

The complex events observed at the NOvA long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment contain vital information for understanding the most elusive particles in the standard model. The NOvA detectors observe interactions of neutrinos from the NuMI beam at Fermilab. Associating the particles produced in these interaction events to their source particles, a process known as reconstruction, is critical for accurately measuring key parameters of the standard model. Events may contain several particles, each producing sparse high-dimensional spatial observations, and current methods are limited to evaluating individual particles. To accurately label these numerous, high-dimensional observations, we present a novel neural network architecture that combines the spatial learning enabled by convolutions with the contextual learning enabled by attention. This joint approach, TransformerCVN, simultaneously classifies each event and reconstructs every individual particle's identity. TransformerCVN classifies events with 90% accuracy and improves the reconstruction of individual particles by 6% over baseline methods which lack the integrated architecture of TransformerCVN. In addition, this architecture enables us to perform several interpretability studies which provide insights into the network's predictions and show that TransformerCVN discovers several fundamental principles that stem from the standard model.

Shmakov, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power System Event Detection Using the Energy Detector: A Performance Analysis

As the grid becomes smarter, the need to accurately detect, predict, and classify waveform phenomena is growing. When it comes to detecting high-frequency behaviors, i.e. transients, it is especially important to employ an event detection system that is able to accurately uncover these types of disturbances that would otherwise be lost with traditional hardware. In this paper, we first present the energy detector; a waveform event detection system that adaptively monitors a signal's energy and picks out high-frequency events that deviate from the nominal state. Secondly, we evaluate the performance of this detector against waveform data that have been corrupted by sensor irregularities. Using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's sensor testbed, we are able to show the results of the detector's performance against events that have been corrupted by three distinct sensor types, and examine how these results change with multiple trials. The results show excellent performance when detecting the beginning of an anomalous event with an average of less than 1% error.

Ekti, Ali Riza↗
DOE OSTI2023

Origin and characterization of single-electron events in Skipper-CCDs for light dark matter searches

This manuscript summarizes the work carried out within the SENSEI (Sub-Electron-Noise Skipper-CCD Experimental Instrument) collaboration, an effort focused on the search for light dark matter using Skipper-CCDs. Firstly, it presents the data acquisition and processing protocol developed to establish a selection criteria for events compatible with the dark matter signal. This protocol also enabled the structure and tools used for the study and characterization of phenomena that impact the quality of measurements made in the search for dark matter (measurement of the Fano factor, determination of the Compton background, and characterization of the high-energy surface background), which were carried out during this work. Secondly, it discusses the comprehensive study conducted on the origin of single-electron events in Skipper-CCDs, which allowed for the selection of detector operating parameters and improved the detection sensitivity in the search for dark matter. It is highlighted the characterization of the spatial correlation between single-electron events and high-energy events, among other developed event selection criteria, and the optimization of the output device to reduce sources of luminescence during its operation. As a result of this study, the lowest levels of dark current and spurious charge ever measured in a CCD are reported. Finally, the latest published results from SENSEI are presented. The obtained limits for the scattering of a light mediator are the best reported to date across the entire investigated mass range, while for the heavy mediator, they are the best for masses below 10 MeV. In terms of dark matter absorption, the most restringent limits below 10 eV are reported. These results, achieved with only a very small fraction of the total projected exposure for SENSEI, position Skipper-CCDs as leaders in the search for light dark matter worldwide.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing ICARUS and REDTOP Software and Hardware: Event Generator Interface Development and Calorimeter Tile Prototype

ICARUS (Imaging Cosmic And Rare Underground Signals) is a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector that pursues the sterile neutrino, which relies on accurate simulations of neutrino-argon interactions. REDTOP (Rare Eta Decays To Observe new Physics) is a proposed low-energy, high-intensity meson factory designed to explore rare $\eta$/$\eta'$ meson decays and probe physics beyond the Standard Model. As a next-generation experiment, this requires both accurate simulations and innovative detector technologies. This project contributes to both ICARUS, from a simulation perspective, and REDTOP, from both a simulation and detection perspective, through the event generation of lepton-nucleon interactions and the physical enhancement of the calorimeter technology within the REDTOP detector. We developed an interface between ACHILLES (A CHIcago Land Lepton Event Simulator), a theory-driven lepton-level event generator, and GENIE, a robust event generator framework used for neutrino physics. By incorporating the precise theoretical cross-section calculations of ACHILLES into the experimental realism of GENIE, the interface allows for improved accuracy of neutrino-nucleon simulations, which can be adapted for the proton beam specifications of the REDTOP meson factory as well as for the ICARUS experiment. In parallel, we developed an improved prototype for the ADRIANO2 (A Dual Readout Integrally Active Non-segmented Option) dual-readout calorimeter tiles for the REDTOP detector. To improve the efficiency of the lead-glass tiles trapping Cherenkov light for energy reconstruction and particle identification, we optimized the application of a highly reflective coating. Through viscosity and thickness control, masking, and a custom spray technique, we refined the coating process to reduce surface defects and improve light yield. Together, these efforts strengthen the ICARUS neutrino program and REDTOP's capability of detecting rare decay events.

Visser, Erin [Michigan State U.] (ORCID:0009000184↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence for Event Reconstruction and Higgs Physics at CMS and Future Colliders

This dissertation charts a trajectory in which advances in artificial intelligence (AI) play a central role in pushing the high-energy physics frontier, complementing progress driven by higher collision energies and larger colliders. The discovery potential of the LHC and future colliders relies on accurate reconstruction of increasingly complex particle collision events. In the CMS experiment, this task is performed by the particle-flow (PF) algorithm. This dissertation presents the first implementation of a machine-learning-based particle-flow (MLPF) reconstruction in the CMS detector based on transformer architectures. In simulated top quark--antiquark pair (ttbar) events under LHC Run~3 (2023--2024) conditions, MLPF improves jet energy resolution by 10--20\% compared to standard PF for jets with transverse momentum between 30--100\GeV. Runtime performance is evaluated using simulated multijet events, with a median inference time of 20\unit{ms} per event on an NVIDIA L4 GPU, compa red to approximately 110\unit{ms} for standard PF. The MLPF algorithm is also validated on Run~3 collision data, representing the first data-validated ML-based reconstruction pipeline at any LHC experiment. We then extend MLPF toward future electron--positron colliders and introduce the first full-simulation cross-detector transfer learning workflow for PF reconstruction. The model is pre-trained on simulated events from the Compact Linear Collider detector (CLICdet) and fine-tuned on the CLIC-like detector (CLD) proposed for the Future Circular Collider (FCC). This approach achieves up to a 40\% improvement in jet energy resolution over rule-based reconstruction while reducing the required training dataset size by an order of magnitude, demonstrating the potential of AI to accelerate detector development and optimization. This dissertation also demonstrates how modern AI techniques enhance the sensitivity of LHC physics analyses. A CMS search for highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs bosons decaying to \textrm{W} boson pairs is presented, focusing on the single-lepton final state. A dedicated fine-tuning strategy for \ParT yields an approximately 70\% increase in expected sensitivity relative to the baseline model. The analysis uses proton--proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of \ensuremath{\sqrt{s}=13\TeV} collected by CMS between 2016 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138\ensuremath{\ \mathrm{fb}^{-1}}. The expected significance of the search is $1.86\sigma$, with an observed signal strength of $-0.19^{+0.48}_{-0.46}$. Finally, explainable AI techniques are applied to the MLPF and \ParticleNet algorithms using layerwise relevance propagation, showing that both models base their predictions on physically meaningful features consistent with our physics intuition. Together, these results demonstrate how advanced AI methods can enhance reconstruction, analysis sensitivity, and interpretability, shaping the next era of experimental parti cle physics.

Mokhtar, Farouk [UC, San Diego]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Power System Feature-Based Event Classification by Means of Multiple PMU Data

Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) provide time synchronized measurements across the power grid, enabling data driven event detection and classification for enhanced system monitoring and situational awareness. However, variations in event duration, spatial extent, and severity, along with coincident events, pose challenges for conventional classification models that require fixed-size inputs. This paper presents a feature-based framework that aggregates diverse attributes from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron. A probabilistic post-processing scheme is further introduced to enable multi-label classification in the presence of overlapping events. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest model achieves 95% accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields an additional 3% improvement.

Nematirad, Reza↗
DOE OSTI2022

Formal verification and validation of run-to-completion style state charts using Event-B

State chart notations with ‘run to completion’ semantics are popular with engineers for designing controllers that react to environment events with a sequence of state transitions but lack formal refinement and rigorous verification methods. State chart models are typically used to design complex control systems that respond to environmental triggers with a sequential process. The model is usually constructed at a concrete level and verified and validated using animation techniques relying on human judgement. Event-B, on the other hand, is based on refinement from an initial abstraction and is designed to make formal verification by automatic theorem provers feasible. Abstraction and formal verification provide greater assurance that critical (e.g. safety or security) properties are not violated by the control system. In this paper, we introduce a notion of refinement into a ‘run to completion’ state chart modelling notation and leverage Event-B’s tool support for theorem proving. We describe the difficulties in translating ‘run to completion’ semantics into Event-B refinements and suggest a solution. We illustrate our approach and show how models can be validated at different refinement levels using our scenario checker animation tools. We show how critical invariant properties can be verified by proof despite the reactive nature of the system and how behavioural aspects of the system can be verified by testing the expected reactions using a temporal logic, model checking approach. To verify liveness, we outline a proof that the run to completion is deadlock-free and converges to complete the run.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

FITEVT: A FORTRAN program for arrival-time analysis of nuclear-decay events

FITEVT is a FORTRAN program designed to analyze recorded arrival times of nuclear-decay events affected by dead-time. Here, the primary goal of the program is precise and accurate determination of half-lives. Its method involves imposition of a known sufficiently long extending dead-time to the recorded event sequence, so that the original dead-time effects are completely obliterated and the remaining live-times of the survived events are known exactly. Upon completion of the analysis, the arrival-time spectrum and the live-time spectrum are predicted and compared to those constructed from the survived events.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of historic fires to determine most frequent challenging events

The fire probabilistic risk assessment framework for nuclear power plants relies on experimental data to determine expected fire behavior or to validate models to predict fire conditions in the plant. To support reducing the uncertainty in this experimental data, a research effort was conducted to identify the most frequent and challenging fire scenarios using historic fire data from nuclear power plants in the United States. To support this effort, an electronic version of the publicly available Updated Fire Event Database developed by Electric Power Research Institute was produced resulting in data on 2111 fire events, 540 events were labelled as being challenging fires with 74.2% of these challenging fire events being due to eleven selected fire types. In conclusion, of these fire types, electrical and electronic equipment, transient combustibles, and liquid fires were the most frequent of the challenging fires. The fire scenario specifics were characterized for each of the eleven selected types and then related to existing fire experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensified Humid Heat Events Under Global Warming

Based on the CMIP5 multi-model simulations, this paper investigates the future changes in extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) and extreme dry-bulb temperatures (Ts) globally under both low and high emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under a warming climate, T and TW exhibit a higher absolute increase in their mean values over the mid-high latitudes while they show higher relative increases in their mean values and variability over tropics. Here, humid and dry heat events which consist of consecutive extreme TWs and Ts show higher occurrences over tropics, governed by the joint increases in mean values and variability of TW and T therein. Humid heat events show intensifications to dry heat events with higher frequency, duration, and intensity, driven by the lower variability of TW than T. In the mid-high latitudes, heat events will start earlier and last longer in warm season under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, motivating the need for global warming mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗