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At least 289 records · Page 16

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Searches Beyond the Standard Model in the ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift Detector

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events—making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving 31.9 ± 0.2% (26.6 ± 0.2%) ν efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, 17.5 ± 0.3% (18.3 ± 0.3%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

A Non‐Intrusive Machine Learning Framework for Debiasing Long‐Time Coarse Resolution Climate Simulations and Quantifying Rare Events Statistics

Abstract Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully‐resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on coarse‐models to quantify risk for extremes. However, coarse models suffer from inherent bias due to the ignored “sub‐grid” scales. We propose a framework to non‐intrusively debias coarse‐resolution climate predictions using neural‐network (NN) correction operators. Previous efforts have attempted to train such operators using loss functions that match statistics. However, this approach falls short with events that have longer return period than that of the training data, since the reference statistics have not converged. Here, the scope is to formulate a learning method that allows for correction of dynamics and quantification of extreme events with longer return period than the training data. The key obstacle is the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a dynamical systems approach where the correction operator is trained using reference data and a coarse model simulation nudged toward that reference. The method is demonstrated on debiasing an under‐resolved quasi‐geostrophic model and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). For the former, our method enables the quantification of events that have return period two orders longer than the training data. For the latter, when trained on 8 years of ERA5 data, our approach is able to correct the coarse E3SM output to closely reflect the 36‐year ERA5 statistics for all prognostic variables and significantly reduce their spatial biases.

Barthel Sorensen, B.↗

AK112: Full Waveform Inversion Tomography of Alaska Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Crustal, Mantle, and Slab Structure

We report a full waveform inversion tomography model of Alaska and the surrounding regions, inferring radially anisotropic shear and isotropic compressional wavespeeds by fitting complete waveforms from 120 regional earthquakes. Our multiscale approach inverted time–frequency phase misfits (maximum period of 100 s), starting with a minimum period of 40 s and ending at 20 s in 7 stages and 112 total iterations. The model (AK112) was evaluated by computing the misfits for 36 independent validation events. We find that misfit reductions were large and equal (∼55%) for both the inversion and validation data sets, providing confidence in the model. AK112 also provides much better waveform fits compared to other reported models for the region, including an isotropic version of itself, highlighting the importance of anisotropy. The model resolves known crustal, upper mantle, and slab structure to depths of 100 km with new detail: sedimentary basins in the Alaskan Shelf, Cook Inlet, and Colville basins, among others; discontinuous lithospheric structure across major terrane boundaries; and subducting slab geometry and back‐arc volcanic sources. In addition to tectonic interpretations, the model enables full waveform simulations for long‐period earthquake ground motions and source characterization (e.g., moment tensor and finite‐fault inversion).

Rodgers, Arthur [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗

Learning stochastic dynamics with statistics-informed neural network

We introduce a machine-learning framework named statistics-informed neural network (SINN) for learning stochastic dynamics from data. This new architecture was theoretically inspired by a universal approximation theorem for stochastic systems, which we introduce in this paper, and the projection-operator formalism for stochastic modeling. Here, we devise mechanisms for training the neural network model to reproduce the correct statistical behavior of a target stochastic process. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that a well-trained SINN can reliably approximate both Markovian and non-Markovian stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the applicability of SINN to coarse-graining problems and the modeling of transition dynamics. Furthermore, we show that the obtained reduced-order model can be trained on temporally coarse-grained data and hence is well suited for rare-event simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement of double-parton scattering in inclusive production of four jets with low transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of inclusive four-jet production in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented. The transverse momenta of jets within |η| < 4.7 are required to exceed 35, 30, 25, and 20 GeV for the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-leading jet, respectively. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of the jet transverse momentum, jet pseudorapidity, and several other observables that describe the angular correlations between the jets. The measured distributions show sensitivity to different aspects of the underlying event, parton shower modeling, and matrix element calculations. In particular, the interplay between angular correlations caused by parton shower and double-parton scattering contributions is shown to be important. The double-parton scattering contribution is extracted by means of a template fit to the data, using distributions for single-parton scattering obtained from Monte Carlo event generators and a double-parton scattering distribution constructed from inclusive single-jet events in data. The effective double-parton scattering cross section is calculated and discussed in view of previous measurements and of its dependence on the models used to describe the single- parton scattering background.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for physics beyond the standard model in multilepton final states in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

A search for physics beyond the standard model in events with at least three charged leptons (electrons or muons) is presented. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018. The two targeted signal processes are pair production of type-III seesaw heavy fermions and production of a light scalar or pseudoscalar boson in association with a pair of top quarks. The heavy fermions may be manifested as an excess of events with large values of leptonic transverse momenta or missing transverse momentum. The light scalars or pseudoscalars may create a localized excess in the dilepton mass spectra. The results exclude heavy fermions of the type-III seesaw model for masses below 880 GeV at 95% confidence level in the scenario of equal branching fractions to each lepton flavor. This is the most restrictive limit on the flavor-democratic scenario of the type-III seesaw model to date. Assuming a Yukawa coupling of unit strength to top quarks, branching fractions of new scalar (pseudoscalar) bosons to dielectrons or dimuons above 0.004 (0.03) and 0.04 (0.03) are excluded at 95% confidence level for masses in the range 15–75 and 108–340 GeV, respectively. These are the first limits in these channels on an extension of the standard model with scalar or pseudoscalar particles.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for physics beyond the standard model in events with jets and two same-sign or at least three charged leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV

A data sample of events from proton-proton collisions with at least two jets, and two isolated same-sign or three or more charged leptons, is studied in a search for signatures of new physics phenomena. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of $137{\,{\text {fb}}^{-1}} $ at a center-of-mass energy of $13\,{\text {TeV}} $, collected in 2016–2018 by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The search is performed using a total of 168 signal regions defined using several kinematic variables. The properties of the events are found to be consistent with the expectations from standard model processes. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are set on cross sections for the pair production of gluinos or squarks for various decay scenarios in the context of supersymmetric models conserving or violating R parity. The observed lower mass limits are as large as $2.1\,{\text {TeV}} $ for gluinos and $0.9\,{\text {TeV}} $ for top and bottom squarks. To facilitate reinterpretations, model-independent limits are provided in a set of simplified signal regions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantile regression-enriched event modeling framework for dropout analysis in high-temperature superconductor manufacturing

High-temperature superconductor (HTS) tapes have shown promising characteristics of high critical current, which are prerequisites for applications in high-field magnets. Due to the unstable growth conditions in the HTS manufacturing process, however, the frequent occurrences of dropouts in the critical current impede the consistent performance of HTS tapes. To manufacture HTS tapes with large scale, high yield, and uniform performance, it is essential to develop novel data analysis approaches for modeling the dropouts and identifying the related important process parameters. Conventional methods for modeling recurrent events, such as the point process, require the extraction of events from quality measurements. As the critical current is a continuous process, it may not comprehensively represent the drop patterns by transforming the time-series measurements into a set of events. Here, to solve this issue, we develop a novel quantile regression-enriched event modeling (QREM) framework that integrates the non-homogeneous Poisson process for modeling the occurrence of dropouts and the quantile regression for capturing the drop patterns. By incorporating the feature selection and regularization, the proposed framework identifies a set of significant process parameters that can potentially cause the dropouts of HTS tapes. The proposed method is tested on real HTS tapes produced using an advanced manufacturing process, successfully identifying important parameters that influence dropout events including the substrate temperature and voltage. The results demonstrate that the proposed QREM method outperforms the standard point process in predicting the occurrence of dropouts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Leptonic cascade decays of a heavy Higgs boson through vectorlike leptons at the LHC

We demonstrate the potential of fully leptonic cascade decays of a heavy neutral Higgs boson through vectorlike leptons as a simultaneous probe for extended Higgs sectors and extra matter particles at the LHC. The processes we explore are unique in that their event topologies lead to di-boson-like leptonic final states with a lepton pair which does not reconstruct the mass of a gauge boson. By recasting existing $2\ell$ + $E^{\text{miss}}_{R}$ and $3/4\ell$ searches channels using run2 data from the LHC we obtain model independent bounds on the masses of heavy scalars and vectorlike leptons and use these results to explore future prospects at the HL-LHC. Our results can be directly applied to any kind of new physics scenarios sharing the final states and the event topology. For concreteness, we apply our results to a benchmark scenario: a two Higgs doublet model type-II augmented with vectorlike leptons. Remarkably, even with current data the sensitivity of our analysis shows a reach for masses of a heavy neutral Higgs and vectorlike leptons up to 2 TeV and 1.5 TeV, respectively. Even for low tan β ≳ 1, the analysis retains sensitivity to heavy Higgs masses slightly above 1 TeV. The future sensitivities at the HL-LHC extend the reach for heavy Higgses and new leptons to 2.7 TeV and 2 TeV, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗