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Some events of a U.S. Army/NASA Lewis Research Center brush seals program are reviewed, and the development of ceramic brush seals is described. Some preliminary room-temperature flow data are modeled and compare favorably to the results of Ergun.
The mechanical properties of L1(2) intermetallic alloys have been previously described by models based on the assumption that cube cross slip is the rate-limiting step. In this study, it was demonstrated that the cube cross-slip event must be reversible under a change in loading direction. This observation allows the cross-slip models to remain consistent with cyclic deformation data. Additionally, this observation was used as a critical test of the available cross-slip models. It was demonstrated that the rate-limiting step cannot be a total cross-slip event, in which both a/2 110-line superpartial dislocations cross slip to the cube plane. Conversely, the limited cross-slip event proposed by Paidar et al. (1984), was demonstrated to be consistent with the reversibility constraint. This lends additional experimental support to this model.
The general strategy to advance knowledge of the ionospheric component of the solar terrestrial system should consist of a three pronged attack on the problem. Ionospheric models should be refined by utilization of existing and new data bases. The data generated in the future should emphasize spatial and temporal gradients and their relation to other events in the solar terrestrial system. In parallel with the improvement in modeling, it will be necessary to initiate a program of advanced instrument development. In particular, emphasis should be placed on the area of improved imaging techniques. The third general activity to be supported should be active experiments related to a better understanding of the basic physics of interactions occurring in the ionospheric environment. These strategies are briefly discussed.
Explosive maritime cyclogenetic events are usually aligned with the warm currents off the east coasts of Japan and the U.S. One such event occurred during FGGE in an area which featured good instrumented ship and aircraft coverage. The UCLA 4th order GMC was employed to generate predictions of the event for comparisons with the real-world data. FGGE III-b data were used to initialize the model calculations. Attention was directed to the physical processes causing the onset of the cyclogenesis, particularly the heat budgets of the fluxes involved. The diabatic heating was observed to be equivalent to the horizontal temperature advection. The main source of energy around the cyclone center was identified as the conversion of energy from static energy to kinetic energy. Further analyses of similar events are required if the present results are to be validated.
This work presents a runtime verification approach implemented in the tool MESA (MEssage-based System Analysis) which allows for using concurrent monitors to check for properties specified in data parameterized temporal logic and state machines. The tool is implemented as an internal Scala DSL. We employ the actor programming model to implement MESA where monitors are captured by concurrent actors that communicate via messaging. The paper presents a case study in which MESA is used to effectively monitor a large number of flights from live US airspace data streams. We also perform an empirical study by conducting experiments using monitoring systems with different numbers of concurrent monitors and different layers of indexing on the data contained in events. The paper describes the experiments, evaluates the results, and discusses challenges faced during the study. The evaluation shows the value of combining concurrency with indexing to handle data rich events.
We evaluated the impact of several newly available sources of meteorological data on mesoscale model forecasts of precipitation produced by the extra-tropical cyclone that struck Florida on February 2, 1998. Precipitation distributions of convective rainfall events were derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Multi-Channel Passive Microwave Sensor (TMI) microwave radiometric data by means of the Goddard PROFiling (GPROF) algorithm. Continuous lightning distributions were obtained from sferics measurements obtained from a network of VLF radio receivers. Histograms of coincident sferics frequency distributions were matched to those of precipitation to derive bogus convective rainfall rates from the continuously available sferics measurements. SSM/I and TMI microwave data were used to derive Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW) distributions. The TMI also provided sea surface temperatures (SSTS) of the Loop Current and Gulf Stream with improved structural detail. A series of experiments assimilated IPW and latent heating from the bogus convective rainfall for six-hours in the MM5 mesoscale forecast model to produce nine-hour forecasts of all rainfall as well as other weather parameters. Although continuously assimilating latent heating only slightly improved the surface pressure distribution forecast, it significantly improved the precipitation forecasts. Correctly locating convective rainfall was found critical for assimilating latent heating in the forecast model, but measurement of the rainfall intensity proved to be less important. The improved SSTs also had a positive impact on rainfall forecasts for this case. Assimilating bogus rainfall in the model produced nine-hour forecasts of radar reflectivity distributions that agreed well with coincident observations from the TRMM spaceborne precipitation radar, ground based radar and spaceborne microwave measurements.
The CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission will implement a state-of-the-art intercalibration method for transferring CPF’s in-orbit Système Internationale (SI)-traceable reference to the shortwave channel of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiance Energy System (CERES) and the reflective solar bands of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the NOAA-20 satellite platform with a targeted intercalibration methodology uncertainty of 0.3% (k=1). In order to achieve such a high intercalibration accuracy, the CPF intercalibration measurements to be scheduled need to closely match those from CERES and VIIRS in time, space, angles, and wavelength. Despite’s CPF’s two-axis pointing capability to match its boresight line of sight to that of a target sensor, there will be finite residual differences in angular samplings of the two instruments. The potential angular mismatch between CPF and the target sensors can introduce systematic errors in the intercalibration results, and therefore needs to be corrected using a rigorously designed algorithm. The CPF intercalibration team has been developing a correction method for mitigating the impact of these angular anisotropic effects in the CPF-VIIRS and CPF-CERES intercalibration. The method explores the spectral correlation relationship between the reflected solar radiances from the same surface target that would be measured by CPF at two adjacent angles. Our studies have shown that the spectral information based on CPF measurements can be used to accurately predict the spectral radiance or reflectance difference due to a given mismatch in the viewing and solar geometry. The hyper-spectral information can also be used to provide scene stratification without using any auxiliary data, which is critical to reduce the angular correction uncertainty. The angular correction relationship can be well established using simulated CPF-like top-of-atmosphere spectral radiances observed at all sorts of viewing geometry and solar angles and for different scenes. Intensive radiative transfer simulations have been completed using a state-of-art radiative transfer model developed by the CPF team members. The implementation of the algorithm on high-fidelity event simulation data and the characterization for the angular adjustment uncertainty will be presented.
Seismicity models for Mars usually estimate the long-term average annual seismic moment rate, and also the average annual event rate. This holds for estimations based on geological evidence (Golombek et al., 1992, Golombek, 2002, Taylor et al., 2013) as well as for models based on thermal evolution and cooling of the Martian interior (Phillips, 1991, Knapmeyer et al., 2006, Plesa et al., 2018). All studies are compatible with the conclusion based on the non-observation of any unambiguous event by Viking (Anderson et al., 1977, Goins & Lazarewicz, 1979) that Martian seismicity lies somewhere between that of the Moon and that of the Earth. We developed tools to derive reasonable estimations of the annual seismic moment rate from a number of events as small as one, provided that the observed events are beyond the global completeness threshold for observable events. Numerical tests as well as evaluation of terrestrial data shows the feasibility of the approach.
Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.
The data on source energy spectra of solar cosmic rays (SCR), i.e. the data on the spectrum form and on the absolute SCR are of interest for three reasons: (1) the SCR contain the energy comparable to the total energy of electromagnetic flare radiation (less than or equal to 10 to the 32nd power ergs); (2) the source spectrum form indicates a possible acceleration mechanism (or mechanism); and (3) the accelerated particles are efficiently involved in nuclear electromagnetic and plasma processes in the solar atmosphere. Therefore, the data on SCR source spectra are necessary for a theoretical description of the processes mentioned and for the formulation of the consistent flare model. Below it is attempted to sound solar particle sources by means of SCR energy spectrum obtained near the Sun, at the level of the roots of the interplanetary field lines in the upper solar corona. Data from approx. 60 solar proton events (SPE) between 1956-1981. These data were obtained mainly by the interplanetary demodulation of observed fluxes near the Earth. Further, a model of coronal azimuthal transport is used to demodulate those spectra, and to obtain the source energy spectra.
Future manned missions beyond low earth orbit require accurate predictions of the risk to astronauts and to critical systems from exposure to ionizing radiation. For low-level exposures, the hazards are dominated by rare single-event phenomena where individual cosmic-ray particles or spallation reactions result in potentially catastrophic changes in critical components. Examples might be a biological lesion leading to cancer in an astronaut or a memory upset leading to an undesired rocket firing. The risks of such events appears to depend on the amount of energy deposited within critical sensitive volumes of biological cells and microelectronic components. The critical environmental information needed to estimate the risks posed by the natural space environments, including solar flares, is the number of times more than a threshold amount of energy for an event will be deposited in the critical microvolumes. These predictions are complicated by uncertainties in the natural environments, particularly the composition of flares, and by the effects of shielding. Microdosimetric data for large numbers of orbits are needed to improve the environmental models and to test the transport codes used to predict event rates.
The Staring OBservations of the Atmosphere (SOBA) Mission is a concept that was developed and matured under the guidance of the NASA Ames Project EXellence (APEX) program. If funded, it will provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve ash transport forecasts and climate model simulations associated with volcanic eruptions. NASA and National science objectives require a better understanding of volcanic aerosol and trace gas emissions, transport, chemical transformation, and deposition, since they impact Earth's climate and atmospheric composition, human health, and aviation safety. Natural hazards such as the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland demonstrated how existing remote-sensing assets were inadequate for individual volcanic event monitoring. During this eruption, available instruments were unable to provide data necessary to initialize volcanic plume transport models so that they could accurately predict the quantity and location of volcanic ash. As a result, thousands of flights around the world were grounded unnecessarily, at great expense. Volcanoes can also play a large role in regulation of the Earth's climate, so SOBA observations will also be used to evaluate and improve volcanic aerosol and trace gas simulation in chemical transport models (CTMs) and global climate models (GCMs). We propose the development of an airborne remote sensing concept and field campaign that will respond to an eruption and provide near real time observations of a volcanic plume, specifically ash injection height, transport, aerosol microphysical physical properties, and the location and concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2) (sulfate (SO42-) aerosol precursor). This airborne system will utilize a depolarization sensitive, downward looking Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) instrument and an ultraviolet (UV) imaging spectrometer, and will provide data to be ingested by volcanic ash advisory models. Furthermore, the lessons learned in the development of this system could eventually guide regular deployment of similar systems by NASA or other government agencies.
A progress report is presented on the petrologic study of the Station 6 boulder, taking into account the implications of its petrographic and geochemical studies to the understanding of the processes of formation and crystallization of impact melts. The interpretation of the data from the boulder suggests processes that appear reasonable for a petrogenetic model of impact events large enough to produce a layer of melt a kilometer or more wide and at most a few tens of meters thick. A summary of the model is presented. The primary difference between the new model and the previous models of Warner et al. (1973, 1974) and Simonds et al. (1973, 1974) is that melt and clasts are derived from distinctly different parts of the cratering regime. The cooling is modeled in two steps, first the rapid equilibration between clasts and matrix, and second, the much slower loss of heat to the surroundings.
The utility of land-cover data resulting from Landsat MSS classification can be greatly enhanced by use in combination with ancillary data. A demonstration forest management applications data base was constructed for Santa Cruz County, California, to demonstrate geographic information system applications of classified Landsat data. The data base contained detailed soils, digital terrain, land ownership, jurisdictional boundaries, fire events, and generalized land-use data, all registered to a UTM grid base. Applications models were developed from problems typical of fire management and reforestation planning.
Often, late-year, flood-producing storms in the Mediterranean Alps region arise from baroclinic disturbances developing on westerly longwaves, with the incipient storm circulations appearing well west of the flood zone. Regardless of the genesis locations and before the storms begin their flow interactions with the orography of the Mediterranean Alps, a process which can produce intense long-lived rainfall over the mountainous terrain of Italy and France, most of their moisture is drawn from warm Mediterranean waters while important elements of their thermodynamic structure are derived from airmass properties originating in north Africa and the Mediterranean basin itself. In fact, because of strong thermodynamic contrasts between the baroclinic zone producing the incipient disturbance and high potential temperature air from the south advecting into and wrapping around the storm center, a Mediterranean storm whose origins are from an evolving shortwave baroclinic perturbation, can become a quasi-warm core hybrid in term of its energetics composition, a process somewhat akin to the development of polar lows. This process begs the question of whether there are similarities between the autumn-winter season flood producing storms of the Mediterranean Alps and warm core tropical cyclones which become altered dynamically and thermodynamically by landfall over steep orographic terrain. This study investigates, from a comparison and contrast perspective, how the similarities and differences between the two types of storms manifest themselves over their respective life cycles. Before the orographically-induced precipitation-release stage in which both types of storm have evolved to the same hydrometeorlogical conclusion, the two storm categories are transforming from entirely distinctive origins, i.e., the classic eastward traveling, baroclinic mid-latitude cyclone forming in western Europe, and the classic eastward-traveling, warm core tropical cyclone developing in the western Pacific. The analyses use high resolution, nonhydrostatic model simulations, satellite data, and various types of ground data to conduct the study. The flood events of Piemonte- 2000 in northern Italy and Typhoon Rusa-2002 in South Korea are selected to focus the analysis on well documented meteorological events.
In late April 1998 an extreme Asian dust episode reached the U.S. western seaboard. This event was observed by several in situ and remote sensing atmospheric measurement stations. Dramatic reductions in boundary layer visibility were recorded and the resultant peak backscatter coefficients exceeded prevailing upper tropospheric background conditions by at least 2 orders of magnitude. An analysis of this event is given using lidar vertical backscatter profilometry, concurrent Sun photometer opacity data, and transport modeling.
This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.
The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.