TBERR - Two-body error analysis program
Two-body error analysis computer program to evaluate resulting state vector and covariance matrix for orbiter after one coast and one burn maneuver
Muhonen, D. P.↗
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Spatial variations of ocean wave directional spectra from the Seasat synthetic aperture radar
Seasat synthetic aperture radar ocean wave spectra for a 900-km pass are analyzed and interpreted in the context of both their probable generation sources and their surface current and bathymetric modifiers. Systematic vector wavenumber variations of several times the standard error of determination (about 1.5 percent in magnitude and 0.9 deg in direction) occur along the entire 900-km pass. The large-scale spatial variation of a 200-m swell system can be accurately accounted for as a result of dispersion from a distant storm. The more local variations are qualitatively well correlated in position with known currents and bathymetry but show systematic biases that appear partly due to an environmentally dependent instrument transfer function in the regions of high current and highest sea state. There is also substantial evidence that a large angular deviation in the center of the pass is the result of a mesoscale eddy just to the east.
Beal, R. C.↗
A comparison of in situ measurements of vector-E and - vector-V x vector-B from Dynamics Explorer 2
Dynamics Explorer-2 provided the first opportunity to make a direct comparison of in situ measurements of the high-latitude convection electric field by two distinctly different techniques. The vector electric field instrument (VEFI) used antennae to measure the intrinsic electric fields and the ion drift meter (IDM) and retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measured the ion drift velocity vector, from which the convection electric field can be deduced. The data from three orbits having large electric fields at high latitude are presented, one at high, one at medium, and one at low altitudes. The general agreement between the two measurements of electric field is very good, with typical differences at high latitudes of the order of a few millivolts per meter, but there are some regions where the particle fluxes are extremely large (e.g., the cusp) and the disagreement is worse, probably because of IDM difficulties. The auroral zone potential patterns derived from the two devices are in excellent agreement for two of the cases, but not in the third, where bad attitude data may be the problem. At low latitudes there are persistent differences in the measurements of a few millivolts per meter, though these differences are quite constant from orbit to orbit. This problem seems to arise from some shortcoming in the VEFI measurments. Overall, however, these measurements confirm the concept of `frozen-in' plasma that drifts with velocity vector-E x vector-B/B(exp 2) within the measurement errors of the two techniques.
Hanson, W. B.↗
Spacecraft attitude and velocity control system
A spacecraft attitude and/or velocity control system includes a controller which responds to at least attitude errors to produce command signals representing a force vector F and a torque vector T, each having three orthogonal components, which represent the forces and torques which are to be generated by the thrusters. The thrusters may include magnetic torquer or reaction wheels. Six difference equations are generated, three having the form ##EQU1## where a.sub.j is the maximum torque which the j.sup.th thruster can produce, b.sub.j is the maximum force which the j.sup.th thruster can produce, and .alpha..sub.j is a variable representing the throttling factor of the j.sup.th thruster, which may range from zero to unity. The six equations are summed to produce a single scalar equation relating variables .alpha..sub.j to a performance index Z: ##EQU2## Those values of .alpha. which maximize the value of Z are determined by a method for solving linear equations, such as a linear programming method. The Simplex method may be used. The values of .alpha..sub.j are applied to control the corresponding thrusters.
Paluszek, Michael A.↗
SU-F-BRF-04: Evaluation of Five Commercially-Available Algorithms for Deformable Image Registration
Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) is increasingly being used in various clinical applications. Although there are several DIR packages all making successful attempts at modeling complex anatomical changes using even more complex mathematical approximations, they are all subject to various uncertainties. Many studies have attempted to quantify the spatial uncertainty with DIR. This is the first study to compare the uncertainty for interfraction DIR for 5 different commercially-available algorithms. The aim of this study was to benchmark the performance of the most commonlyused DIR algorithms offered through these 5 software packages: Eclipse, MIM, Pinnacle, RaySearch, and Velocity. Methods: A set of 10 virtual H'N phantoms [Pukala et al. MedPhys. 40(11) 2013] with known deformations were used to determine the spatial errors that might be seen when performing DIR. The “ground-truth” deformation vector field (DVF) was compared to the DVF output of the 5 commercially-available algorithms in order to evaluate spatial errors for six regions of interest (ROIs): brainstem, cord, mandible, left parotid, right parotid, and the external body contour. Results: We found that each software package had varying uncertainties with the various ROIs, but were generally all comparable to one another – with mean spatial errors for each algorithm below 3.5 mm for each ROI (averaged across all phantoms). We also found that no single algorithm was the clear winner over the other 4 algorithms. However, at times, we found huge maximum errors in our results (e.g. phantom #9 maximum errors: right parotid = 22.9 mm, external contour = 30.5mm) with the varying DIR algorithms. Conclusion: Although our evaluation was limited to H'N patients, we show that our methods are a single-assessment analysis tool that could be used by any physicist, within any type of facility, to compare their DIR software before initiating widespread use within their daily radiotherapy practice.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations
Here, this work proposes a machine-learning framework for constructing statistical models of errors incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations. These approximate solutions may arise from early termination of an iterative method, a lower-fidelity model, or a projection-based reduced-order model, for example. The proposed statistical model comprises the sum of a deterministic regression-function model and a stochastic noise model. The method constructs the regression-function model by applying regression techniques from machine learning (e.g., support vector regression, artificial neural networks) to map features (i.e., error indicators such as sampled elements of the residual) to a prediction of the approximate-solution error. The method constructs the noise model as a mean-zero Gaussian random variable whose variance is computed as the sample variance of the approximate-solution error on a test set; this variance can be interpreted as the epistemic uncertainty introduced by the approximate solution. This work considers a wide range of feature-engineering methods, data-set-construction techniques, and regression techniques that aim to ensure that (1) the features are cheaply computable, (2) the noise model exhibits low variance (i.e., low epistemic uncertainty introduced), and (3) the regression model generalizes to independent test data. Finally, numerical experiments performed on several computational-mechanics problems and types of approximate solutions demonstrate the ability of the method to generate statistical models of the error that satisfy these criteria and significantly outperform more commonly adopted approaches for error modeling.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
THE INFLUENCE OF SPATIAL RESOLUTION ON NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING
The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model is often used to describe the solar coronal magnetic field, however a series of earlier studies revealed difficulties in the numerical solution of the model in application to photospheric boundary data. We investigate the sensitivity of the modeling to the spatial resolution of the boundary data, by applying multiple codes that numerically solve the NLFFF model to a sequence of vector magnetogram data at different resolutions, prepared from a single Hinode/Solar Optical Telescope Spectro-Polarimeter scan of NOAA Active Region 10978 on 2007 December 13. We analyze the resulting energies and relative magnetic helicities, employ a Helmholtz decomposition to characterize divergence errors, and quantify changes made by the codes to the vector magnetogram boundary data in order to be compatible with the force-free model. This study shows that NLFFF modeling results depend quantitatively on the spatial resolution of the input boundary data, and that using more highly resolved boundary data yields more self-consistent results. The free energies of the resulting solutions generally trend higher with increasing resolution, while relative magnetic helicity values vary significantly between resolutions for all methods. All methods require changing the horizontal components, and for some methods also the vertical components, of the vector magnetogram boundary field in excess of nominal uncertainties in the data. The solutions produced by the various methods are significantly different at each resolution level. We continue to recommend verifying agreement between the modeled field lines and corresponding coronal loop images before any NLFFF model is used in a scientific setting.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example
State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.
Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
Achieving unequal error protection with convolutional codes
This paper examines the unequal error protection capabilities of convolutional codes. Both time-invariant and periodically time-varying convolutional encoders are examined. The effective free distance vector is defined and is shown to be useful in determining the unequal error protection (UEP) capabilities of convolutional codes. A modified transfer function is used to determine an upper bound on the bit error probabilities for individual input bit positions in a convolutional encoder. The bound is heavily dependent on the individual effective free distance of the input bit position. A bound relating two individual effective free distances is presented. The bound is a useful tool in determining the maximum possible disparity in individual effective free distances of encoders of specified rate and memory distribution. The unequal error protection capabilities of convolutional encoders of several rates and memory distributions are determined and discussed.
Mills, D. G.↗
Compact Midwave Imaging System: Results from an Airborne Demonstration
The Compact Midwave Imaging System (CMIS) is a wide field of view, multi-angle, multi-spectral push frame imager that relies on the forward motion of the satellite to create a two-dimensional (2D) image swath. An airborne demonstration of CMIS was successfully completed in January-February 2021 on the NASA Langley Research Center Gulfstream III. The primary objective of the four-flight campaign was to demonstrate the capability of this unique instrument to perform stereo observations of clouds and other particulates (e.g. smoke) in the atmosphere. It is shown that the midwave infrared (MWIR) spectral bands of CMIS provide a unique 24/7 capability with high resolution for accurate stereo sensing.The instrument relies on new focal plane array (FPA) technology, which provides excellent sensitivity at much warmer detector temperatures than traditional technologies. This capability enabled a compact, low-cost design that can provide atmospheric motion vectors and cloud heights to support requirements for atmospheric winds in the 2017-2027 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Applications include day/night observations of the planetary boundary layer, severe weather, and wildfires. A comparison with current space-based earth science instruments demonstrates that the SWIR/MWIR multi-spectral capability of CMIS is competitive with larger, more expensive instrumentation. Imagery obtained over a controlled burn and operating nuclear power plant demonstrated the sensitivity of the instrument to temperature variations. The system relies on a mature stereoscopic imaging technique applied to the same scene from two independent platforms to unambiguously retrieve atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) with accurate height assignment.This capability has been successfully applied to geostationary and low-earth orbit satellites to achieve excellent accuracy. When applied to a ground-point validation case, the accuracy for the CMIS aircraft observations was 20 m and 0.3 m/s for cloud heights and motion vectors, respectively. This result was confirmed by a detailed error analysis with analytical and covariance models. The results for CMIS cases with under flights of Aeolus, CALIPSO and Aqua provided a good validation of expected accuracies. The paper also showed the feasibility of accommodating CMIS on CubeSats to enable multiple instruments to be flown in a leader-follower mode.
stereo winds↗
Quantifying the Impact of Single Bit Flips on Floating Point Arithmetic
In high-end computing, the collective surface area, smaller fabrication sizes, and increasing density of components have led to an increase in the number of observed bit flips. If mechanisms are not in place to detect them, such flips produce silent errors, i.e. the code returns a result that deviates from the desired solution by more than the allowed tolerance and the discrepancy cannot be distinguished from the standard numerical error associated with the algorithm. These phenomena are believed to occur more frequently in DRAM, but logic gates, arithmetic units, and other circuits are also susceptible to bit flips. Previous work has focused on algorithmic techniques for detecting and correcting bit flips in specific data structures, however, they suffer from lack of generality and often times cannot be implemented in heterogeneous computing environment. Our work takes a novel approach to this problem. We focus on quantifying the impact of a single bit flip on specific floating-point operations. We analyze the error induced by flipping specific bits in the most widely used IEEE floating-point representation in an architecture-agnostic manner, i.e., without requiring proprietary information such as bit flip rates and the vendor-specific circuit designs. We initially study dot products of vectors and demonstrate that not all bit flips create a large error and, more importantly, expected value of the relative magnitude of the error is very sensitive on the bit pattern of the binary representation of the exponent, which strongly depends on scaling. Our results are derived analytically and then verified experimentally with Monte Carlo sampling of random vectors. Furthermore, we consider the natural resilience properties of solvers based on the fixed point iteration and we demonstrate how the resilience of the Jacobi method for linear equations can be significantly improved by rescaling the associated matrix.
Elliott, James J.↗
Notes on power of normality tests of error terms in regression models
Normality is one of the basic assumptions in applying statistical procedures. For example in linear regression most of the inferential procedures are based on the assumption of normality, i.e. the disturbance vector is assumed to be normally distributed. Failure to assess non-normality of the error terms may lead to incorrect results of usual statistical inference techniques such as t-test or F-test. Thus, error terms should be normally distributed in order to allow us to make exact inferences. As a consequence, normally distributed stochastic errors are necessary in order to make a not misleading inferences which explains a necessity and importance of robust tests of normality. Therefore, the aim of this contribution is to discuss normality testing of error terms in regression models. In this contribution, we introduce the general RT class of robust tests for normality, and present and discuss the trade-off between power and robustness of selected classical and robust normality tests of error terms in regression models.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion
A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings
Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Accurate Magnetometer/Gyroscope Attitudes Using a Filter with Correlated Sensor Noise
Magnetometers and gyroscopes have been shown to provide very accurate attitudes for a variety of spacecraft. These results have been obtained, however, using a batch-least-squares algorithm and long periods of data. For use in onboard applications, attitudes are best determined using sequential estimators such as the Kalman filter. When a filter is used to determine attitudes using magnetometer and gyroscope data for input, the resulting accuracy is limited by both the sensor accuracies and errors inherent in the Earth magnetic field model. The Kalman filter accounts for the random component by modeling the magnetometer and gyroscope errors as white noise processes. However, even when these tuning parameters are physically realistic, the rate biases (included in the state vector) have been found to show systematic oscillations. These are attributed to the field model errors. If the gyroscope noise is sufficiently small, the tuned filter 'memory' will be long compared to the orbital period. In this case, the variations in the rate bias induced by field model errors are substantially reduced. Mistuning the filter to have a short memory time leads to strongly oscillating rate biases and increased attitude errors. To reduce the effect of the magnetic field model errors, these errors are estimated within the filter and used to correct the reference model. An exponentially-correlated noise model is used to represent the filter estimate of the systematic error. Results from several test cases using in-flight data from the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory are presented. These tests emphasize magnetometer errors, but the method is generally applicable to any sensor subject to a combination of random and systematic noise.
Sedlak, J.↗
Autonomous frequency domain identification: Theory and experiment
The analysis, design, and on-orbit tuning of robust controllers require more information about the plant than simply a nominal estimate of the plant transfer function. Information is also required concerning the uncertainty in the nominal estimate, or more generally, the identification of a model set within which the true plant is known to lie. The identification methodology that was developed and experimentally demonstrated makes use of a simple but useful characterization of the model uncertainty based on the output error. This is a characterization of the additive uncertainty in the plant model, which has found considerable use in many robust control analysis and synthesis techniques. The identification process is initiated by a stochastic input u which is applied to the plant p giving rise to the output. Spectral estimation (h = P sub uy/P sub uu) is used as an estimate of p and the model order is estimated using the produce moment matrix (PMM) method. A parametric model unit direction vector p is then determined by curve fitting the spectral estimate to a rational transfer function. The additive uncertainty delta sub m = p - unit direction vector p is then estimated by the cross spectral estimate delta = P sub ue/P sub uu where e = y - unit direction vectory y is the output error, and unit direction vector y = unit direction vector pu is the computed output of the parametric model subjected to the actual input u. The experimental results demonstrate the curve fitting algorithm produces the reduced-order plant model which minimizes the additive uncertainty. The nominal transfer function estimate unit direction vector p and the estimate delta of the additive uncertainty delta sub m are subsequently available to be used for optimization of robust controller performance and stability.
Yam, Yeung↗
Improved Stratospheric Temperature Retrievals for Climate Reanalysis
The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is embarking on plans to generate a twenty year reanalysis data set of climatic atmospheric variables. One of the focus points will be in the evaluation of the dynamics of the stratosphere. The Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), flown as part of the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), is one of the primary stratospheric temperature sensors flown consistently throughout the reanalysis period. Seven unique sensors made the measurements over time, with individual instrument characteristics that need to be addressed. The stratospheric temperatures being assimilated across satellite platforms will profoundly impact the reanalysis dynamical fields. To attempt to quantify aspects of instrument and retrieval bias we are carefully collecting and analyzing all available information on the sensors, their instrument anomalies, forward model errors and retrieval biases. For the retrieval of stratospheric temperatures, we adapted the minimum variance approach of Jazwinski (1970) and Rodgers (1976) and applied it to the SSU soundings. In our algorithm, the state vector contains an initial guess of temperature from a model six hour forecast provided by the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS/DAS). This is combined with an a priori covariance matrix, a forward model parameterization, and specifications of instrument noise characteristics. A quasi-Newtonian iteration is used to obtain convergence of the retrieved state to the measurement vector. This algorithm also enables us to analyze and address the systematic errors associated with the unique characteristics of the cell pressures on the individual SSU instruments and the resolving power of the instruments to vertical gradients in the stratosphere. The preliminary results of the improved retrievals and their assimilation as well as baseline calculations of bias and rms error between the NESDIS operational product and col-located ground measurements will be presented.
Rokke, L.↗
A Systematic Approach for Model-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation
A requirement for effective aircraft engine performance estimation is the ability to account for engine degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. This paper presents a linear point design methodology for minimizing the degradation-induced error in model-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications. The technique specifically focuses on the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown health parameters than available sensor measurements. A condition for Kalman filter-based estimation is that the number of health parameters estimated cannot exceed the number of sensed measurements. In this paper, the estimated health parameter vector will be replaced by a reduced order tuner vector whose dimension is equivalent to the sensed measurement vector. The reduced order tuner vector is systematically selected to minimize the theoretical mean squared estimation error of a maximum a posteriori estimator formulation. This paper derives theoretical estimation errors at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the estimation accuracy achieved through conventional maximum a posteriori and Kalman filter estimation approaches. Maximum a posteriori estimation results demonstrate that reduced order tuning parameter vectors can be found that approximate the accuracy of estimating all health parameters directly. Kalman filter estimation results based on the same reduced order tuning parameter vectors demonstrate that significantly improved estimation accuracy can be achieved over the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuner vector. However, additional development is necessary to fully extend the methodology to Kalman filter-based estimation applications.
Simon, Donald L.↗