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At least 289 records · Page 16

Understanding Uncertainty in Microstructure Evolution and Constitutive Properties in Additive Process Modeling

Coupled process–microstructure–property modeling, and understanding the sources of uncertainty and their propagation toward error in part property prediction, are key steps toward full utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) for predictable quality part development. The OpenFOAM model for process conditions, the ExaCA model for as-solidified grain structure, and the ExaConstit model for constitutive mechanical properties are used as part of the ExaAM modeling framework to examine a few of the various sources of uncertainty in the modeling workflow. In addition to “random” uncertainty (due to random number generation in the orientations and locations of grains present), the heterogeneous nucleation density N 0 and the mean substrate grain spacing S 0 are varied to examine their impact of grain area development as a function of build height in the simulated microstructure. While mean grain area after 1 mm of build is found to be sensitive to N 0 and S 0 , particularly at small N 0 and large S 0 (despite some convergence toward similar values), the resulting grain shapes and overall textures develop in a reasonably similar manner. As a result of these similar textures, ExaConstit simulation using ExaCA representative volume elements (RVEs) from various permutations of N 0 , S 0 , and location within the build resulted in similar yield stress, stress–strain curve shape, and stress triaxiality distributions. It is concluded that for this particular material and scan pattern, 15 layers is sufficient for ExaCA texture and ExaConstit predicted properties to become relatively independent of additional layer simulation, provided that reasonable estimates for N 0 and S 0 are used. However, additional layers of ExaCA will need to be run to obtain mean grain areas independent of build height and baseplate structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SIRU utilization. Volume 1: Theory, development and test evaluation

The theory, development, and test evaluations of the Strapdown Inertial Reference Unit (SIRU) are discussed. The statistical failure detection and isolation, single position calibration, and self alignment techniques are emphasized. Circuit diagrams of the system components are provided. Mathematical models are developed to show the performance characteristics of the subsystems. Specific areas of the utilization program are identified as: (1) error source propagation characteristics and (2) local level navigation performance demonstrations.

Musoff, H.↗

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 1: Analytical manual for earth orbital MAPSEP

An introduction to the MAPSEP organization and a detailed analytical description of all models and algorithms are given. These include trajectory and error covariance propagation methods, orbit determination processes, thrust modeling, and trajectory correction (guidance) schemes. Earth orbital MAPSEP contains the capability of analyzing almost any currently projected low thrust mission from low earth orbit to super synchronous altitudes. Furthermore, MAPSEP is sufficiently flexible to incorporate extended dynamic models, alternate mission strategies, and almost any other system requirement imposed by the user. As in the interplanetary version, earth orbital MAPSEP represents a trade-off between precision modeling and computational speed consistent with defining necessary system requirements. It can be used in feasibility studies as well as in flight operational support. Pertinent operational constraints are available both implicitly and explicitly. However, the reader should be warned that because of program complexity, MAPSEP is only as good as the user and will quickly succumb to faulty user inputs.

Source record↗

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 1: Analytical manual

The mission analysis program for solar electric propulsion (MAPSEP) is comprised of the basic modes: TOPSEP (trajectory generation), GODSEP (linear error analysis), and SIMSEP (simulation). The program is designed to analyze any low thrust mission with respect to trajectory performance, guidance and navigation, and to provide system related requirements for the purpose of vehicle design. The MAPSEP organization is described along with all models and algorithms. Topics discussed include: trajectory and error covariance propagation methods, orbit determination processes, thrust modeling, and trajectory correction (guidance) schemes.

Hong, P. E.↗

On the determination and investigation of the terrestrial ionospheric refractive indices using GEOS-3/ATS-6 satellite-to-satellite tracking data

An analysis of the shortening and lengthening of the phase of satellite-to-satellite (SST) data that passed within 40-700 km above the earth surface during its ATS-6 to GEOS-3 to ATS-6 path resulted in refractivity vs height profiles. The SST Doppler data were used directly to adjust the GEOS-3 orbit. Perturbations from the moon, sun, and a 15th-order/degree earth gravity field were included in the orbit solution. This orbit was continued through the occulation period and a model ionosphere was estimated by a least-squares adjustment of the Chapman ionosphere parameters from the SST data residuals. The refractivity profile obtained by this model ionosphere was compared to a refractivity profile obtained by a direct integral inversion of the SST data residuals. Systematic differences between the two methods were caused by orbital errors, which propagated into the solution.

Liu, A. S.↗

On the determination and investigation of the terrestrial ionospheric refractive indices using GEOS-3/ATS-6 satellite-to-satellite tracking data

When the radio link between two satellites (GEOS-3/ATS-6) is intercepted by the earth's ionosphere and neutral atmosphere, a change in the Doppler frequency results. Travel through the atmosphere causes the Doppler phase to be advanced in the ionosphere's portion and retarded in the neutral portion of the atmosphere. Analysis of the shortening and lengthening of the phase of the Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) data that passed within 40-700 km above the earth's surface during its ATS-6 to GEOS-3 to ATS-6 path, caused by the atmosphere, results in refractivity versus height profiles. The SST Doppler data were used directly to adjust the GEOS-3 orbit. Perturbation from the Moon, Sun and a 15th order/degree earth gravity field were included in the orbit solution. This orbit was continued through the occultation period and a model ionosphere was estimated by a least-square adjustment of the Chapman ionosphere parameters from the SST data residuals. The refractivity profile obtained by this model ionosphere was compared to a refractivity profile obtained by a direct integral inversion of the SST data residuals. Systematic differences between the 2 methods were caused by orbital errors, which propagated into the solution. The SST data yielded refractive index profiles in a novel economical manner because no additional or special on-board equipment were required.

Liu, A. S.↗

Establishment of a rotor model basis

Radial-dimension computations in the RSRA's blade-element model are modified for both the acquisition of extensive baseline data and for real-time simulation use. The baseline data, which are for the evaluation of model changes, use very small increments and are of high quality. The modifications to the real-time simulation model are for accuracy improvement, especially when a minimal number of blade segments is required for real-time synchronization. An accurate technique for handling tip loss in discrete blade models is developed. The mathematical consistency and convergence properties of summation algorithms for blade forces and moments are examined and generalized integration coefficients are applied to equal-annuli midpoint spacing. Rotor conditions identified as 'constrained' and 'balanced' are used and the propagation of error is analyzed.

Mcfarland, R. E.↗

Computing Relative Joint Positions of Robot Arms

Vector-algebra method developed for extracting Denavit-Hartenberg parameters for any assembled robot arm. Method for extracting relative joint geometry of robot arms useful to researchers who need data for existing robot arms for either validation of mathematical models or for studies involving actual control of these devices. Method, does not require robot arm to be disassembled, also useful in recalibration of misalined or bent robot arm and becomes useful industrial procedure. Merit of method is errors not propagated.

Barker, L. K.↗

A new theory for multistep discretizations of stiff ordinary differential equations: Stability with large step sizes

A large set of variable coefficient linear systems of ordinary differential equations which possess two different time scales, a slow one and a fast one is considered. A small parameter epsilon characterizes the stiffness of these systems. A system of o.d.e.s. in this set is approximated by a general class of multistep discretizations which includes both one-leg and linear multistep methods. Sufficient conditions are determined under which each solution of a multistep method is uniformly bounded, with a bound which is independent of the stiffness of the system of o.d.e.s., when the step size resolves the slow time scale, but not the fast one. This property is called stability with large step sizes. The theory presented lets one compare properties of one-leg methods and linear multistep methods when they approximate variable coefficient systems of stiff o.d.e.s. In particular, it is shown that one-leg methods have better stability properties with large step sizes than their linear multistep counter parts. The theory also allows one to relate the concept of D-stability to the usual notions of stability and stability domains and to the propagation of errors for multistep methods which use large step sizes.

Majda, G.↗

Interval Counter Measures Stability Of Frequency

Propagation of errors and effects of dead time suppressed. System includes precise timing-pulse generator with interval counter and suitably programmed computer determines relative stability or instability of frequency of two signals differing in frequency by about 1 Hz. Designed for use in frequency-standards laboratory.

Greenhall, C. A.↗

Data compression for data archival, browse or quick-look

Soon after space and Earth science data is collected, it is stored in one or more archival facilities for later retrieval and analysis. Since the purpose of the archival process is to keep an accurate and complete record of data, any data compression used in an archival system must be lossless, and protect against propagation of error in the storage media. A browse capability for space and Earth science data is needed to enable scientists to check the appropriateness and quality of particular data sets before obtaining the full data set(s) for detailed analysis. Browse data produced for these purposes could be used to facilitate the retrieval of data from an archival facility. Quick-look data is data obtained directly from the sensor for either previewing the data or for an application that requires very timely analysis of the space or Earth science data. Two main differences between data compression techniques appropriate to browse and quick-look cases, are that quick-look can be more specifically tailored, and it must be limited in complexity by the relatively limited computational power available on space platforms.

Dozier, Jeff↗

Application of neural nets in structural optimization

The biological motivation for Artificial Neural Net developments is briefly discussed, and the most popular paradigm, the feedforward supervised learning net with error back propagation training algorithm, is introduced. Possible approaches for utilization in structural optimization is illustrated through simple examples. Other currently ongoing developments for application in structural mechanics are also mentioned.

Berke, Laszlo↗

Formal results regarding metric space techniques for the study of astrophysical maps

We extend a newly developed formal system for the description of astrophyscial maps. In this formalism, we consider the difference between maps to be the distance between elements of a pseudometric space (the space of all such maps). This Ansatz allows us to measure quantitatively the difference between any two maps and to order the space of all maps. For each physical characteristic of interest, this technique assigns an 'output' function to each map; the difference between the maps is then determined from the difference between their corresponding output functions. In this present study, we show that the results of this procedure are invariant under a class of transformations of the maps and the domains of the maps. In addition, we study the propagation of errors (observational uncertainties) through this formalism. We show that the uncertainties in the output functions can be controlled provided that the signal to noise ratios in the original astrophysical maps are sufficiently high. The results of this paper thus increase the effectiveness of this formal system for the description, classification, and analysis of astrophysical maps.

Adams, Fred C.↗

A New Coarsening Operator for the Optimal Preconditioning of the Dual and Primal Domain Decomposition Methods: Application to Problems with Severe Coefficient Jumps

We present an optimal preconditioning algorithm that is equally applicable to the dual (FETI) and primal (Balancing) Schur complement domain decomposition methods, and which successfully addresses the problems of subdomain heterogeneities including the effects of large jumps of coefficients. The proposed preconditioner is derived from energy principles and embeds a new coarsening operator that propagates the error globally and accelerates convergence. The resulting iterative solver is illustrated with the solution of highly heterogeneous elasticity problems.

Farhat, Charbel↗

Evaluation of the DAO Retrospective Data Assimilation System

We have developed and implemented a retrospective data assimilation system (RDAS) as an upgrade to the operational DAO/Terra data assimilation system. This formulation aims at improving analysis over filter analysis by the dynamically consistent incorporation of observation information past a given analysis time. The current implementation of the RDAS uses the adjoint of the tangent linear model of a simplified version of the Terra general circulation model and extensions to the physical-space statistical analysis system to propagate observation information back in time. The RDAS adopts the same assumptions of the regular data assimilation system, particularly, no explicit propagation of error covariances are involved therefore rendering a procedure that is computationally affordable. In this study, we show results of experiments conducted to investigate the performance of the 6-hour (lag-1) RDAS. Statistical results obtained over one month during a winter season indicate that the RDAS represents considerable improvement over the regular assimilation. Plans for implementation of the RDAS capability in our new finite-volume data assimilation system will also be presented at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗

A Globally Optimal Particle Tracking Technique for Stereo Imaging Velocimetry Experiments

An important phase of any Stereo Imaging Velocimetry experiment is particle tracking. Particle tracking seeks to identify and characterize the motion of individual particles entrained in a fluid or air experiment. We analyze a cylindrical chamber filled with water and seeded with density-matched particles. In every four-frame sequence, we identify a particle track by assigning a unique track label for each camera image. The conventional approach to particle tracking is to use an exhaustive tree-search method utilizing greedy algorithms to reduce search times. However, these types of algorithms are not optimal due to a cascade effect of incorrect decisions upon adjacent tracks. We examine the use of a guided evolutionary neural net with simulated annealing to arrive at a globally optimal assignment of tracks. The net is guided both by the minimization of the search space through the use of prior limiting assumptions about valid tracks and by a strategy which seeks to avoid high-energy intermediate states which can trap the net in a local minimum. A stochastic search algorithm is used in place of back-propagation of error to further reduce the chance of being trapped in an energy well. Global optimization is achieved by minimizing an objective function, which includes both track smoothness and particle-image utilization parameters. In this paper we describe our model and present our experimental results. We compare our results with a nonoptimizing, predictive tracker and obtain an average increase in valid track yield of 27 percent

McDowell, Mark↗