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At least 289 records · Page 16

Implementing Spatio-Temporal 3D-Convolution Neural Networks and UAV Time Series Imagery to Better Predict Lodging Damage in Sorghum

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based remote sensing is gaining momentum in a variety of agricultural and environmental applications. Very-high-resolution remote sensing image sets collected repeatedly throughout a crop growing season are becoming increasingly common. Analytical methods able to learn from both spatial and time dimensions of the data may allow for an improved estimation of crop traits, as well as the effects of genetics and the environment on these traits. Multispectral and geometric time series imagery was collected by UAV on 11 dates, along with ground-truth data, in a field trial of 866 genetically diverse biomass sorghum accessions. We compared the performance of Convolution Neural Network (CNN) architectures that used image data from single dates (two spatial dimensions, 2D) versus multiple dates (two spatial dimensions + temporal dimension, 3D) to estimate lodging detection and severity. Lodging was detected with 3D-CNN analysis of time series imagery with 0.88 accuracy, 0.92 Precision, and 0.83 Recall. This outperformed the best 2D-CNN on a single date with 0.85 accuracy, 0.84 Precision, and 0.76 Recall. The variation in lodging severity was estimated by the best 3D-CNN analysis with 9.4% mean absolute error (MAE), 11.9% root mean square error (RMSE), and goodness-of-fit (R2) of 0.76. This was a significant improvement over the best 2D-CNN analysis with 11.84% MAE, 14.91% RMSE, and 0.63 R2. The success of the improved 3D-CNN analysis approach depended on the inclusion of “before and after” data, i.e., images collected on dates before and after the lodging event. The integration of geometric and spectral features with 3D-CNN architecture was also key to the improved assessment of lodging severity, which is an important and difficult-to-assess phenomenon in bioenergy feedstocks such as biomass sorghum. This demonstrates that spatio-temporal CNN architectures based on UAV time series imagery have significant potential to enhance plant phenotyping capabilities in crop breeding and Precision agriculture applications.

3D-convolution neural networks↗

Statistical accuracy of cosmic radiation neutron component recorders

A method is examined for calculating the error of experimental data from a standard neutron monitor with the multiplicity of neutron generation. It is shown that use of the Poisson distribution to estimate the real statistical error is inadequate. The method proposed is for analysis of low-amplitude periodicities in the cosmic-ray variations.

Dorman, L. I.↗

Real-Time Parameter Estimation for Flexible Aircraft

A method for estimating aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for flexible aircraft is developed and demonstrated using flight test data for the X-56A subscale demonstrator. The method uses the equation-error approach with frequency-domain data, and can be applied post-flight or in real time during flight. The non-dimensional aeroelastic forces and moments and the explanatory variables (including generalized displacement, rate, and acceleration states for the vibration modes) are estimated using a finite element model and onboard sensor measurements in both a least squares and Kalman filtering framework. The data are then transformed into the frequency domain for parameter estimation using equation error. This method can result in a more efficient analysis than with other iterative methods, and can leverage existing statistical tools for model structure determination, data collinearity detection, combining multiple maneuvers or prior information, and others to improve model quality.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Neptunium transition probabilities estimated through laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) measurements

in tis report calibration free–laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (CF-LIBS) approaches are promising for the analysis of radioactive materials; however, a lack of reported fundamental properties for these materials is an obstacle to implementation. Spectra of laser induced plasmas containing Np and Sr, along with Saha–Boltzmann methods, were used to estimate the first reported transition probabilities (TPs) of Np. These TPs enabled the first attempt at CF-LIBS analysis of radioactive samples to predict Np/Sr ratios with a mean error of 3.86%. The presented methodology of TP estimation will be applied to the study of other actinides and allow broader applications of CF-15 LIBS in the nuclear field.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Characterizing the System Impulse Response Function from Photon-Counting LiDAR Data

NASA's Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental LiDAR (MABEL) is an aircraft-based photon-counting laser altimeter designed as a simulator to test measurement techniques and algorithms for Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), the sole instrument on NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission. By measuring the time of flight, pointing angle, and absolute position for individual photons, ICESat-2 provides detailed elevation measurements of earth's surface. Calculating accurate and precise elevations requires an understanding of how photons interact with surfaces, and characterization of the photon distribution after returning from surfaces. Neither MABEL nor ATLAS records the transmitted laser pulse shape, relying instead on aggregating several pulses worth of photons, often using histograms, to characterize the pulse shape. In this paper, we assess the limitations of using histograms and propose a more robust method to describe MABEL's system impulse-response function using an exponentially modified Gaussian distribution. We also provide standard error estimates for the arithmetic mean and standard deviation calculations, and for exponentially modified Gaussian parameters using a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. We apply this method to photon returns from a sea ice lead and from a dry salt lake bed as case studies for estimating the standard error associated with sample size for the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, and for the exponentially modified Gaussian parameters. We use these standard errors to calculate the minimum number of photons required to find both Gaussian and exponentially modified Gaussian distribution parameters within 3 cm of their parent population values.

photoncounting↗

Advanced Systems for Monitoring Underwater Sounds

The term "Passive Acoustic Monitoring System" (PAMS) describes a developmental sensing-and-data-acquisition system for recording underwater sounds. The sounds (more precisely, digitized and preprocessed versions from acoustic transducers) are subsequently analyzed by a combination of data processing and interpretation to identify and/or, in some cases, to locate the sources of those sounds. PAMS was originally designed to locate the sources such as fish of species that one knows or seeks to identify. The PAMS unit could also be used to locate other sources, for example, marine life, human divers, and/or vessels. The underlying principles of passive acoustic sensing and analyzing acoustic-signal data in conjunction with temperature and salinity data are not new and not unique to PAMS. Part of the uniqueness of the PAMS design is that it is the first deep-sea instrumentation design to provide a capability for studying soniferous marine animals (especially fish) over the wide depth range described below. The uniqueness of PAMS also lies partly in a synergistic combination of advanced sensing, packaging, and data-processing design features with features adapted from proven marine instrumentation systems. This combination affords a versatility that enables adaptation to a variety of undersea missions using a variety of sensors. The interpretation of acoustic data can include visual inspection of power-spectrum plots for identification of spectral signatures of known biological species or artificial sources. Alternatively or in addition, data analysis could include determination of relative times of arrival of signals at different acoustic sensors arrayed at known locations. From these times of arrival, locations of acoustic sources (and errors in those locations) can be estimated. Estimates of relative locations of sources and sensors can be refined through analysis of the attenuation of sound in the intervening water in combination with water-temperature and salinity data acquired by instrumentation systems other than PAMS. A PAMS is packaged as a battery-powered unit, mated with external sensors, that can operate in the ocean at any depth from 2 m to 1 km. A PAMS includes a pressure housing, a deep-sea battery, a hydrophone (which is one of the mating external sensors), and an external monitor and keyboard box. In addition to acoustic transducers, external sensors can include temperature probes and, potentially, underwater cameras. The pressure housing contains a computer that includes a hard drive, DC-to- DC power converters, a post-amplifier board, a sound card, and a universal serial bus (USB) 4-port hub.

Lane, Michael↗

On minimal surfaces, membranes and compressible flows

The theory, variational formulation and finite element analysis of a class of nonlinear problems arising in optimization, thin membrane deflection and compressible flows are developed. Error estimates are summarized, and representative numerical results are presented. Particular theoretical questions pertaining to the existence and uniqueness of solutions are addressed, and their implications for such applications of finite element analysis as the study of compressible flows indicated.

Carey, G. F.↗

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by about 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Summarizing Multiple Aspects of Triple Collocation Analysis in a Single Diagram

With the ongoing expansion of global observation networks, it is expected that we shall routinely analyze records of geophysical variables such as temperature from multiple collocated instruments. Validating datasets in this situation is not a trivial task because every observing system has its own bias and noise. Triple collocation is a general statistical framework to estimate the error characteristics in three or more observational-based datasets. In a triple colocation analysis, several metrics are routinely reported but traditional multiple-panel plots are not the most effective way to display information. A new formula of error variance is derived for connecting the key terms in the triple collocation theory. A diagram based on this formula is devised to facilitate triple collocation analysis of any data from observations, as illustrated using three aerosol optical depth datasets from the recent Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). An observational-based skill score is also derived to evaluate the quality of three datasets by taking into account both error variance and correlation coefficient. Several applications are discussed and sample plotting routines are provided.

triple collocation↗

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the error ec on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error ec is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by approximately 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+/-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Magnetic field directional discontinuities. I - Minimum variance errors

The paper deals with a statistical analysis of the errors associated with a minimum variance analysis of directional discontinuities by use of an idealized model of these discontinuities and various simulations, and also by an examination of actual Mariner 10 interplanetary magnetic field data. An empirical expression is derived for the magnitude of the error in an estimated discontinuity normal component, relative to the total field across the directional discontinuity. The analysis was performed primarily to aid in differentiating between interplanetary tangential and rotational discontinuities observed by Mariner 10.

Lepping, R. P.↗

The TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is intended to provide a "best" estimate of quasi-global precipitation from the wide variety of modern satellite-borne precipitation-related sensors. Estimates are provided at relatively fine scales (0.25degx0.25deg, 3-hourly) in both real and post-real time to accommodate a wide range of researchers. However, the errors inherent in the finest scale estimates are large. The most successful use of the TMPA data is when the analysis takes advantage of the fine-scale data to create time/space averages appropriate to the user s application. We review the conceptual basis for the TMPA, summarize the processing sequence, and focus on two new activities. First, a recent upgrade to the real-time version incorporates several additional satellite data sources and employs monthly climatological adjustments to approximate the bias characteristics of the research quality post-real-time product. Second, an upgrade of the research quality post-real-time TMPA from Version 6 to Version 7 (in beta test at press time) is designed to provide a variety of improvements that increase the list of input data sets and correct several issues. Future enhancements for the TMPA will include improved error estimation, extension to higher latitudes, and a shift to a Lagrangian time interpolation scheme.

Huffman, George J.↗

Design and Calibration of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) System

This paper presents the design of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) system. The X-33 FADS uses a matrix of pressure orifices on the vehicle nose to estimate airdata parameters. The system is designed with dual-redundant measurement hardware, which produces two independent measurement paths. Airdata parameters that correspond to the measurement path with the minimum fit error are selected as the output values. This method enables a single sensor failure to occur with minimal degrading of the system performance. The paper shows the X-33 FADS architecture, derives the estimating algorithms, and demonstrates a mathematical analysis of the FADS system stability. Preliminary aerodynamic calibrations are also presented here. The calibration parameters, the position error coefficient (epsilon), and flow correction terms for the angle of attack (delta alpha), and angle of sideslip (delta beta) are derived from wind tunnel data. Statistical accuracy of' the calibration is evaluated by comparing the wind tunnel reference conditions to the airdata parameters estimated. This comparison is accomplished by applying the calibrated FADS algorithm to the sensed wind tunnel pressures. When the resulting accuracy estimates are compared to accuracy requirements for the X-33 airdata, the FADS system meets these requirements.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

The TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is intended to provide a "best" estimate of quasi-global precipitation from the wide variety of modern satellite-borne precipitation-related sensors. Estimates are provided at relatively fine scales (0.25 deg x 0.25 deg. 3-h) in both real and post-real time to accommodate a wide range of researchers. However, the errors inherent in the finest scale estimates are large. The most successful use of the TMPA data is when the analysis takes advantage of the fine-scale data to create time/space averages appropriate to the user fs application. We review the conceptual basis for the TMPA, summarize the processing sequence, and focus on two new activities. First, a recent upgrade for the real-time version incorporates several additional satellite data sources and employs monthly climatological adjustments to approximate the bias characteristics of the research quality post-real-time product. Second, an upgrade for the research quality post-real-time TMPA from Versions 6 to 7 (in beta test at press time) is designed to provide a variety of improvements that increase the list of input data sets and correct several issues. Future enhancements for the TMPA will include improved error estimation, extension to higher latitudes, and a shift to a Lagrangian time interpolation scheme.

Huffman, George J.↗

Uncertainty of Passive Imager Cloud Optical Property Retrievals to Instrument Radiometry and Model Assumptions: Examples from MODIS

The optical and microphysical structure of clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global-daily 1 km retrievals of cloud optical thickness (COT) and effective particle radius (CER) are provided, as well as the derived water path (WP). The cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate retrieval datasets for various two-channel retrievals, typically a VISNIR channel paired with a 1.6, 2.1, and 3.7 m spectral channel. The MOD06 forward model is derived from on a homogeneous plane-parallel cloud. In Collection 5 processing (completed in 2007 with a modified Collection 5.1 completed in 2010), pixel-level retrieval uncertainties were calculated for the following non-3-D error sources: radiometry, surface spectral albedo, and atmospheric corrections associated with model analysis uncertainties (water vapor only). The latter error source includes error correlation across the retrieval spectral channels. Estimates of uncertainty in 1 aggregated (Level-3) means were also provided assuming unity correlation between error sources for all pixels in a grid for a single day, and zero correlation of error sources from one day to the next. I n Collection 6 (expected to begin in late summer 2013) we expanded the uncertainty analysis to include: (a) scene-dependent calibration uncertainty that depends on new band and detector-specific Level 1B uncertainties, (b) new model error sources derived from the look-up tables which includes sensitivities associated with wind direction over the ocean and uncertainties in liquid water and ice effective variance, (c) thermal emission uncertainties in the 3.7 m band associated with cloud and surface temperatures that are needed to extract reflected solar radiation from the total radiance signal, (d) uncertainty in the solar spectral irradiance at 3.7 m, and (e) addition of stratospheric ozone uncertainty in visible atmospheric corrections. A summary of the approach and example Collection 6 results will be shown.

Cloud Properties Observations↗

Geometry Modeling for Unstructured Mesh Adaptation

The quantification and control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Adaptive mesh techniques have the potential to automate discretization error control, but have made limited impact on production analysis workflow. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. However, the poor integration of initial mesh generation and adaptive mesh mechanics to typical sources of geometry has hindered adoption of adaptive mesh techniques, where these geometries are often created in Mechanical Computer- Aided Design (MCAD) systems. The difficulty of this coupling is compounded by two factors: the inherent complexity of the model (e.g., large range of scales, bodies in proximity, details not required for analysis) and unintended geometry construction artifacts (e.g., translation, uneven parameterization, degeneracy, self-intersection, sliver faces, gaps, large tolerances be- tween topological elements, local high curvature to enforce continuity). Manual preparation of geometry is commonly employed to enable fixed-grid and adaptive-grid workflows by reducing the severity and negative impacts of these construction artifacts, but manual process interaction inhibits workflow automation. Techniques to permit the use of complex geometry models and reduce the impact of geometry construction artifacts on unstructured grid workflows are models from the AIAA Sonic Boom and High Lift Prediction are shown to demonstrate the utility of the current approach.

Park, Michael A.↗

Recent Advances to Estimation of Fixed-Interface Modal Models Using Dynamic Substructuring

In 2010, Allen & Mayes proposed to estimate the fixed-interface modes of a structure by measuring the modes of the structure bolted to a fixture and then applying constraints to the fixture using the transmission simulator method. While the method proved useful, and has indeed been used in studies since that point, a few peculiarities were noted. First, in some cases the estimated fixed-base natural frequencies were observed to converge very slowly to the true values (in simulated experiments) as the number of constraints was increased. To formulate these constraints, prior studies used only the free-interface modes of the fixture or the measured modes of the assembly. This work extends that to consider other sets of constraints, showing improved results. Furthermore, in some prior studies it has been observed that there were errors of more than 10% in the natural frequencies even when the fixture motion was hundreds of times smaller than the motion of the structure of interest (and so it had presumably been removed). This work explores this phenomenon, seeking to use the strain energy in the fixture, to the extent that it can be estimated using a test-analysis model for the fixture, as a metric to predict frequency error. The proposed methods are explored by applying them to simulated measurements from a beam and from the NASA Space Launch System coupled to the Mobile Launcher.

Allen, Mathew S.↗

Magnetopause surface fluctuations observed by Voyager 1

Moving out of the dawnside of the earth's magnetosphere, Voyager 1 crossed the magnetopause apparently seven times, despite the high spacecraft speed of 11 km/sec. Normals to the magnetopause and their associated error cones were estimated for each of the crossings using a minimum variance analysis of the internal magnetic field. The oscillating nature of the ecliptic plane component of these normals indicates that most of the multiple crossings were due to a wave-like surface disturbance moving tailward along the magnetopause. The wave, which was aperiodic, was modeled as a sequence of sine waves. The amplitude, wavelength, and speed were determined for two pairs of intervals from the measured slopes, occurrence times, and relative positions of six magnetopause crossings. The magnetopause thickness was estimated to lie in the range 300 to 700 km with higher values possible. The estimated amplitude of these waves was obviously small compared to their wavelengths.

Lepping, R. P.↗