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At least 289 records · Page 16

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Asymptotic modal analysis and statistical energy analysis

Asymptotic Modal Analysis (AMA) is a method which is used to model linear dynamical systems with many participating modes. The AMA method was originally developed to show the relationship between statistical energy analysis (SEA) and classical modal analysis (CMA). In the limit of a large number of modes of a vibrating system, the classical modal analysis result can be shown to be equivalent to the statistical energy analysis result. As the CMA result evolves into the SEA result, a number of systematic assumptions are made. Most of these assumptions are based upon the supposition that the number of modes approaches infinity. It is for this reason that the term 'asymptotic' is used. AMA is the asymptotic result of taking the limit of CMA as the number of modes approaches infinity. AMA refers to any of the intermediate results between CMA and SEA, as well as the SEA result which is derived from CMA. The main advantage of the AMA method is that individual modal characteristics are not required in the model or computations. By contrast, CMA requires that each modal parameter be evaluated at each frequency. In the latter, contributions from each mode are computed and the final answer is obtained by summing over all the modes in the particular band of interest. AMA evaluates modal parameters only at their center frequency and does not sum the individual contributions from each mode in order to obtain a final result. The method is similar to SEA in this respect. However, SEA is only capable of obtaining spatial averages or means, as it is a statistical method. Since AMA is systematically derived from CMA, it can obtain local spatial information as well.

Dowell, Earl H.↗

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

analysis↗

Energy, economic, and environmental analysis of integration of thermal energy storage into district heating systems using waste heat from data centres

Data centres produce waste heat, which can be utilized in district heating systems. However, the mismatch between data centres’ heat supply and district heating systems’ heat demands limits its utilization. Further, high peak loads increase the operation cost of district heating systems. This study aimed to solve these problems by introducing thermal energy storages. A water tank and a borehole thermal energy storage system were selected as the short-term and long-term thermal energy storage, respectively. Energy, economic, and environmental indicators were introduced to evaluate different solutions. The case study was a campus district heating system in Norway. Results showed that the water tank could shave the peak load by 31% and save the annual energy cost by 5%. The payback period was lower than 15 years when the storage efficiency remained higher than 80%. However, it had no obvious benefits in terms of mismatch relieving and CO emissions reduction. In contrast, the borehole thermal energy storage increased the waste heat utilization rate to 96% and reduced the annual CO emissions by 8%. However, the payback period was more than 17 years. These results provide guidelines for the retrofit of district heating systems, where data centres’ waste heat is available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hardware-in-the-Loop Efficiency Analysis of Tidal Power Systems

Marine renewable energy presents an opportunity for sustainable power in areas located near and in the marine environment. In particular, tidal energy offers a consistent and reliable resource. However, tidal energy harvesting systems seeking to take advantage of this resource face challenges associated with power electronics. Power conversion electronics struggle with low efficiencies, lack of off-the-shelf options for small-scale energy harvesting systems, and limited opportunities for testing with deployed turbines. This work demonstrates a hardware-in-the-loop experimental design and methodology for characterizing efficiency of tidal turbine power electronics and control methods. The suggested method removes barriers to testing these power electronics by eliminating the need for a physical tidal turbine and generator to produce accurate harvested tidal power profiles.

tidal turbine, hardware-in-the-loop, energy conver↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Analysis of a fuel cell on-site integrated energy system for a residential complex

Declining supplies of domestic oil and gas and the increased cost of energy resulted in a renewed emphasis in utilizing available resources in the most efficient manner possible. This, in turn, brought about a reassessment of a number of methods for converting fossil fuels to end uses at the highest practical efficiency. One of these is the on-site integrated energy system (OS/IES). This system provides electric power from an on-site power plant and recovers heat from the power plant that would normally be rejected to the environment. An OS/IES is potentially useful in any application that requires both electricity and heat. Several OS/IES are analyzed for a residential complex. The paper is divided into two sections; the first compares three energy supply systems, the second compares various designs for fuel cell OS/IES.

Simons, S. N.↗

Analysis of the economics of photovoltaic-diesel-battery energy systems for remote applications

Computer simulations were conducted to analyze the performance and operating cost of a photovoltaic energy source combined with a diesel generator system and battery storage. The simulations were based on the load demand profiles used for the design of an all photovoltaic energy system installed in the remote Papago Indian Village of Schuchuli, Arizona. Twenty year simulations were run using solar insolation data from Phoenix SOLMET tapes. Total energy produced, energy consumed, operation and maintenance costs were calculated. The life cycle and levelized energy costs were determined for a variety of system configurations (i.e., varying amounts of photovoltaic array and battery storage).

Brainard, W. A.↗

Parallel Hybrid Gas-Electric Geared Turbofan Engine Conceptual Design and Benefits Analysis

The conceptual design of a parallel gas-electric hybrid propulsion system for a conventional single aisle twin engine tube and wing vehicle has been developed. The study baseline vehicle and engine technology are discussed, followed by results of the hybrid propulsion system sizing and performance analysis. The weights analysis for the electric energy storage & conversion system and thermal management system is described. Finally, the potential system benefits are assessed.

Geared Turbofan↗

A study of space shuttle energy management, approach and landing analysis

The steering system of the space shuttle vehicle is presented for the several hundred miles of flight preceding landing. The guidance scheme is characterized by a spiral turn to dissipate excess potential energy (altitude) prior to a standard straight-in final approach. In addition, the system features pilot oriented control, drag brakes, phugoid damping, and a navigational capacity founded upon an inertial measurement unit and an on-board computer. Analytic formulas are used to calculate, represent, and insure the workability of the system's specifications

Morth, R.↗

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Lessons Learned From Techno-Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics and Battery Energy Storage at a Vietnam Industrial Park

Through the Clean Energy Investment Accelerator (CEIA), engineers from the United States (U.S.) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a case study analysis evaluating the techno-economic feasibility of battery energy storage systems (BESS) at an industrial park in Vietnam. The analysis uses NREL's REopt platform, a distributed energy modeling and optimization tool, to identify the cost-optimal system sizing for BESS, in conjunction with onsite renewables such as solar photovoltaics (PV), to reduce electricity costs, increase onsite renewable energy generation utilization, and improve resilience to grid outages.

batteries↗

Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity: >90% Capture Cases Technical Note

This technical note provides cost and performance estimates for post combustion carbon capture (PCCC) systems designed for greater than 90 percent capture on conventional PC- and NG-fueled power plants. The cost and performance estimates provided here were developed using the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) well-documented methodology for conducting technoeconomic analysis of fossil energy conversion systems and leveraging published performance and cost projections for higher capture rate systems. Included in this technical note is a brief description of the method used to adjust select 90 percent capture cases from NETL’s Cost and Performance Baselines for Fossil Energy Systems Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity, hereafter referred to as the Baseline Study. This technical note is intended to serve as an interim update to NETL’s Baseline Study cases by providing cost and performance estimates for high capture PCCC technology that can be deployed in the near-term at fossil-fueled electricity generating units.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Energy, Exergy, Entropy Generation Minimization, and Exergoenvironmental Analyses of Energy Systems-A Mini-Review

Meeting the growing energy demands has become a crucial challenge, which should employ energy integration and benefit from the extraction of the maximum thermodynamic potential of the resources consumed. This brief review presents an overview of the essential elements of the methods of energy, exergy, entropy generation minimization, and exergoenvironmental analyses. In combination, these methodologies constitute a powerful toolbox for the design, analysis, and optimization of energy systems. The quantification of energy and environmental impacts provided by them is essential in guiding toward system designs that are consistent with current energy and environmental needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗