Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “energy finance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

284 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The potential of carbon markets to accelerate green infrastructure based water quality trading

Green infrastructure solutions can improve in-stream water quality in lieu of building electricity-consuming gray infrastructure. Permitted under the United States Clean Water Act, these programs allow regulated utilities to trade point-source water quality obligations with non-point source mitigation efforts in the watershed. Carbon financing can provide an incentive for water quality trading. Here we combine data on impaired waters, treatment technologies, and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the Contiguous United States, and compare traditional treatment technologies to alternative green infrastructure. We find green infrastructure could save $\$15.6$ billion dollars, 21.2 terawatt-hours of electricity, and 29.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year while sequestering over 4.2 million tonnes CO2e per year over a 40 year time horizon. Green infrastructure solutions may have the potential to generate $\$679$ million annually in carbon credit revenue (at $\$20$ per credit), which represents a unique opportunity to help accelerate water quality trading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Information Searching in the Residential Solar PV Market

This paper examines the consumer information search behavior of households in San Diego County with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. We focus on whether solar PV households financing the technology through third-party ownership (TPO) versus host-ownership (HO), which is equivalent to leasing or buying goods in other markets, have heterogeneous preferences as reflected by information search. Conditional on adoption, we find that TPO households tend to seek more information on home modifications required for solar installation whereas HO households seek more information on the financial returns of solar investments. These preferences may be correlated with the consumption of other goods and services, and thus, if used to inform marketing strategies, our results could help reduce solar PV customer acquisition costs and accelerate technology diffusion. They also have indirect implications for marketing goods and services in other contexts where consumers exhibit similar preferences.

California↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber Threat Landscape for Distribution Systems

INL cyber analysts will present an overview of the current threat landscape for distribution systems. We will begin with examples of known attacks that have occurred recently to motivate the threat analysis and mitigation discussed in the remainder of the presentation. Examples may include the attacks affecting wind plants in Europe in Spring 2022, ransomware attacks on city utilities and commercial distribution systems, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) including the attacks on Ukrainian electric system in 2015 and 2016, as well as more recent evidence of other APT activity. We will present the end-to-end attack paths and discuss the various attacker skills, financing, motivations, and access that contributed to these attacks. In the second part of this presentation, we will discuss mitigating the cyber threats for distribution systems. We will discuss recent publicly disclosed vulnerabilities and explain their relevant context for distribution system security. Likely attacks to affect distribution systems, such as denial-of-service (DoS), ransomware, edge-device compromise, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) will be described. In addition to an overview of these kinds of attacks, we will provide examples of the various ways in which these attacks can start and what systems they can affect. Simple, cost-effective counter-measures to these attacks will be discussed and we will emphasize how these mitigations can reduce threats when properly applied and maintained.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policies and Programs Available in the United States in Support of Carbon Capture and Utilization

The article seeks to compile policies and programs that provide revenue and financing support for carbon capture and utilizations projects, which are available in the United States. Often technically minded entrepreneurs and investors new to this space are unaware of available support, which could help successful development of carbon capture and utilization projects.Covered in this article are the 45Q tax credit, green bonds, loan guarantee programs, the regional greenhouse gas initiative, and low carbon fuel standards.1This article covers the eligibility and effect of each policy and program. The article also briefly reviews the current state of technology and summarizes how each technology pathway pairs with the policies covered in the article.The goal of the article is to serve as a primer for lawyers, corporate development professionals, and practitioners, who seek to learn about policies and programs available to support carbon capture and utilization (CCU) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Challenges of Financing Modular Construction: A Case Study for Prospective Multifamily Units

Compared to traditional site build, modular construction can significantly shorten construction schedules and speed income generation. Modular construction may also reduce construction costs. Yet access to commercial financing remains one of the most significant barriers to modular construction. Materials must be purchased, and production lines reconfigured for each project months ahead of fabrication. Materials alone can be 60% or more of the total cost of production. As a result, manufacturers require large upfront deposits—often 30% or more of the off-site contract. In addition, the capital-intensive nature of modular construction requires frequent progress payments for manufacturers to maintain cash flow. For those lenders willing to fund modular projects, many require the developer to share more of the risk. This may include the developer paying for line reservation fees and material deposits 3–6 months prior to production. Because these are unsecured loans, interest rates may be higher and loan amounts lower. As suppliers, modular manufacturers discourage retainage. Together, these and other factors may contribute to higher equity requirements for the developer—particularly at the beginning of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of solar leasing for low- and middle-income customers in Connecticut

Policymakers are increasingly interested in expanding access to rooftop photovoltaic systems. This study analyzes the financial performance of a Connecticut Green Bank (CGB) solar leasing program, run in partnership with PosiGen, that targets low- and moderate-income customers. We show that this program has successfully reached underserved customers and has reasonable repayment rates given the credit characteristics of the participants. The CGB/PosiGen program reaches many more underserved customers than other PV financing programs in Connecticut.For example, the majority of CGB/PosiGen participants (58%) live in census tracts that have a median income of less than 80% of the area median income (AMI). In contrast, only 9% of participants in the other CGB solar financing programs live in these census tracts. Furthermore, the majority of CGB/PosiGen participants (56%) have FICO scores that would generally be considered non-prime (<670), whereas only 2% of participants in the other programs have similarly low scores. Credit, not income, is the primary factor that explains participants’ financial performance. Overall, we find that delinquency and annualized losses are higher for PosiGen (2.3% and 0.9%) than for other CGB programs (1.4% and 0.1%). Across the CGB programs, lower credit scores are associated with higher rates of delinquency and loss. Therefore, participants’ lower credit scores explain much of the program’s higher rates of delinquency and annualized losses. PosiGen leases perform competitively with market-rate solar and non-solar leases and loans. When compared to securities backed by market-rate PV loans and leases with similar amounts of seasoning, we find that the PosiGen leases have higher delinquency rates but comparable gross loss rates. The similarity in losses is notable given that loss rates for PosiGen leases were higher than those of the other CGB leases and loans. Rather than the PosiGen leases having high loss rates, other CGB leases and loans have unusually low loss rates. We also compare PosiGen to non-solar benchmarks, including indices of auto and consumer loans. We find that the PosiGen leases have significantly less delinquency than non-prime auto loans and have performance comparable to many consumer loans. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office supported this research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

No Need to Wait for the Clean Air Dividend

Controlling smog and soot is the classic win-win situation, so it's great that the world is finally waking up to the idea. WHAT if there was a way to simultaneously slow down climate change, save millions of lives, improve crop yields and contribute to sustainable development and energy security? It sounds too good to be true, but it is possible. It won't be free or easy, but with some effort and moderate investment, it can be done. The way to do it is to reduce emissions leading to two types of pollution: black carbon and ozone. These are the only pollutants that we know contribute to both global warming and poor air quality. Black carbon is essentially soot, emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It warms the climate in two ways: by absorbing heat in the atmosphere - similar to the greenhouse effect - and by reducing Earth's albedo, or ability to reflect sunlight. Inhaled into the lungs, it leads to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Ozone in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas, while ground-level ozone is toxic to humans and plants, so leads to both premature death and reduced crop yields. Ozone is not emitted directly but is produced by the action of sunlight on other pollutants, which are known as ozone precursors. Since black carbon and ozone are important components of soot and smog, a great deal of effort has already been put into developing methods to reduce emissions. So effective technology is available, but needs wider implementation. The recommended control measures for black carbon include widespread and tight emission standards on diesel cars and trucks; improved solid fuel cooking stoves, brick kilns and coke ovens in the developing world; and a ban on the open burning of agricultural waste. Implementation of these measures would have a rapid impact on the climate and human health, and also have the added benefit of greatly reducing emissions of carbon monoxide, an important ozone precursor. A second key ozone precursor is methane, which is also a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right. Control measures include reducing leaks from natural gas pipelines and storage tanks, and capturing it from coal, gas and oil extraction, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Aeration of rice paddies and manure management can also reduce methane releases. Captured methane can often be sold or turned into power. In Monterrey, Mexico, for example, electricity generated from methane collected from the city landfill powers the public transportation system. So such measures can be beneficial even when ignoring the health and climate effects, as they can contribute to energy security and often pay for themselves. According to calculations by me and my colleagues, phasing in all these measures over the next 20 years would reduce global warming by about 0.5 degC in 2050, half of the projected increase between now and then (Science, vol 335, p 183). Regional benefits would be even greater, as black carbon disrupts rainfall patterns and magnifies warming and melting of snow and ice in parts of the world including the Arctic and the Himalayas. On top of the climate benefits, cutting black carbon and ozone would prevent over 3 million premature deaths from air pollution, and increase yields of staple crops by roughly 50 million tonnes a year. Improved cooking stoves would also decrease the demand for firewood in the developing world, reducing deforestation and freeing up time for those who collect wood - primarily women and children - to pursue other activities such as education. Similarly, improved brick kilns now being used in parts of Latin America and Asia require half as much fuel as traditional ones and are less time-intensive for the operators. This means that in addition to their environmental benefits, these measures can contribute to sustainable and human development. Tackling black carbon and methane is clearly a great idea, so why hasn't it been done already? There are many barriers. The upfront costs of some measures can be prohibitive even when they eventually pay for themselves. But this can be overcome by mechanisms such as international financing of capital costs. For other measures, the costs are typically borne by a few while the benefits accrue to everybody. In such cases civil society and governments must get involved. Governments are starting to act. In February, the US, Canada, Sweden, Bangladesh, Ghana and Mexico launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to support implementation of measures like these. This coalition will hopefully expand and achieve rapid, widespread adoption of measures to cut black carbon and ozone. While the climate benefits will be substantial, it is important to note that these measures cannot substitute for cuts in carbon dioxide. Black carbon, ozone, carbon monoxide and methane stay in the atmosphere for a fairly short time - a few days for black carbon and about a decade for methane. They thus respond quickly to emissions changes and give us substantial leverage over near-term climate change. In contrast, carbon dioxide is very long-lived and so responds slowly to emissions changes. This means that cuts have little immediate impact, but it also means they must be made now to avoid disastrous changes later on. Controlling short-lived climate pollutants is thus an issue of fairness. Much as failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions soon would condemn future generations to disastrous change, failure to reduce near-term climate change condemns those alive today to suffer worsening effects of the sort already seen. Some wonder if we really can do both. We can, and we must.

Shindell, Drew↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing Federated Learning Against Active Reconstruction Attacks

Federated Learning (FL) has amassed notable attention for its ability to preserve user privacy while emphasizing the retainment of model training efficiency. Due to this potential, FL has been integrated in many domains, such as healthcare, finance, law, and industrial engineering, where data cannot be easily exchanged due to sensitive information and strict privacy laws. However, current research has indicated that FL protocols are easily compromised by active data reconstruction attacks employed by actively dishonest servers. The malicious modification of global model parameters allows an actively dishonest server to obtain a direct copy of users’ private data via gradient inversion. Here, this class of attacks is highly underexplored and continues to be a major challenge due to the intense threat model. In this paper, we propose OASIS as a scalable and modality-agnostic defense based on data augmentation that counteracts active data reconstruction attacks while preserving model performance. To generalize our defense, we uncover the intuition behind gradient inversion that enables these attacks and theoretically establish the conditions by which the defense can be considered robust regardless of attack design. From this, we formulate our defense with data augmentation that illustrates its ability to undermine the attack principle. We evaluate OASIS on five real-world datasets–two image-based (ImageNet and CIFAR100) and three text-based (Wikitext, Stack Overflow, and Shakespeare)–which span diverse uses cases such as vision tasks and language modeling. Comprehensive evaluations on these datasets exhibit the efficacy of OASIS and highlight its feasibility as a solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Demonstration of a Fuel-Efficient, Class 8 Tractor & Trailer Engine System (SuperTruck II)

Navistar presents the SuperTruck II (ST II) Final Report to the Unites States Department of Energy (US DOE), which covers the five Budget Periods (BPs) from 10-1-2016 through 6-30-2022. For ST II, Navistar built on the achievements of the SuperTruck I (ST I) Program as a catalyst to continue critical research, design and development, testing, and operations to reach the ambitious goals of the ST II project. This approach allowed Navistar to continue contributing to the essential needs of our nation for safe, efficient, and cost-effective delivery of goods and services, as we reduced negative environmental effects and improved operational productivity. This document contains information specified in DOE F 4600.2, Final Scientific/Technical Report DOE F 241.3, B. SCIENTIFIC/TECHNICAL REPORTS, explaining how we met and exceeded program requirements. Throughout this Final Report, Navistar extracted information from documents prepared during the project that represent our management, design and development, building, and testing efforts to meet and exceed SuperTruck II project goals. Navistar followed Plan requirements to achieve / exceed Project Objectives: a) >100% improvement in vehicle freight efficiency (FE) (on ton-MPG basis) relative to 2009 baseline with stretch goal of 140% improvement [actual: 170%); b) >55% engine brake thermal efficiency (BTE) demonstrated in operational engine at a 65-mph cruise point on a dynamometer – ≥31% increase from 2009 baseline [actual: 55.20% of combined BTE) ; and c) development and implementation of commercially cost effective technologies (in terms of a simple payback). Technology selection / development path focused on developing technologies applicable for production within 3-year approach, while ensuring technology readiness and cost of ownership for end users. The Program was organized into five budget periods: Requirements / Technology Assessment and Initial Hardware Testing; Technology Development and Concept Readiness Demonstration; Technology Finalization and Validation Tractor / Trailer Fabrication, Integration and Commissioning Demonstration; and Fuel Economy (FE) and Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) and Program Completion. Leadership was provided by DOE, with tasks performed by laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); partners at Bosch, TPI, Dana, and J.B. Hunt; , and support from University of Michigan and Clemson University. Navistar lead this team with Principal Investigator / Contracting Officer; Project Manager (PM); Vehicle, Engine, and Aftertreatment Engineers; Finance Manager, Technical Program Leads, and Legal/IP; and other key personnel. Work also included personnel in risk management; funding / budget / finance. Work involved analysis, development, testing, and down selection of individual/system engine, aftertreatment, and vehicle technologies, with integration of selected technologies into a prototype vehicle for demonstration of fuel-efficiency gain. Work also included component/integrated system level development of truck and trailer aerodynamics, base engine efficiency, advanced aftertreatment, combustion efficiency, waste heat recovery, hybrid powertrain, reduced rolling resistance, weight reduction, idle reduction, and driver feedback. As ST II progressed, Navistar performed computer-based modeling / simulations of technologies focused on the primary operational areas: Engine, Aftertreatment, and Vehicle. During the ST II Program, the COVID Virus outbreak unexpectedly challenged by the effects of, which affected staffing, scheduling, design, supplies, availability of materials, production procedures, and testing. The DOE responded by extending the program by three quarters to ensure that project tasks were completed for this vital project. Focus continued on analyzing, developing, testing, and down selecting individual-/system-level engine and vehicle technologies for integration of the final selected technologies into a prototype vehicle that would demonstrate fuel-efficiency gains made possible through these technologies. This included component/integrated system-level development of truck and trailer aerodynamics, base engine efficiency, advanced aftertreatment, combustion efficiency, waste heat recovery, solar power, distributed and intelligent vehicle power, hybrid powertrain, reduced rolling resistance, weight reduction, idle reduction, and driver feedback. Throughout the program, function, reliability, and performance at all levels were ensured through testing. Proof of this approach was demonstrated in multiple, on-road demonstrations: Scenario A (Flatland) Fuel Economy, Scenario B (Hilly) Fuel Economy, and City Cycle Tests. Other benefits derived from ST II included new/improved products, publications, patents, and next-step capabilities related to electric/hydrogen vehicles and autonomous driving.

Zukouski, Russ↗
DOE OSTI2026

All Systems Go: Regional Collaborations for Scaling AEC Innovation: Preprint

The high and rising cost of preserving and delivering housing in the U.S. requires changes to existing practices of finance, design, and construction. Innovative methods such as industrialized construction could offer the means to address housing undersupply while reducing delivery costs, operational costs and material waste in the building industry, but they face challenges to success and to scale. Simultaneously, construction and cleantech innovators themselves face skepticism from the traditional entrepreneurial ecosystem such as incubators and accelerators while attempting to navigate systems level challenges. To respond to this need, various public and private sector stakeholders have launched initiatives to support innovative companies. These include nonprofits such as Terner Labs and Ivory Innovations offering curated programming to architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) startups; housing developers in Minnesota and California "bundling" multiple projects together to reach economies of scale with a consistent project team; public and private sector entities developing "catalogues" of pre-approved home designs in the U.S. and Canada. This exploratory paper documents several of these emerging ecosystem-development efforts to support innovative housing approaches, characterizing them by leading stakeholder and intervention strategy based on publicly available information. The paper finds that these initiatives share similar high level goals but vary in implementation, reflecting different stakeholder priorities, regional market and policy dynamics, and housing typologies. The early stage of these efforts offer limited data for comparing actual outcomes, but the paper highlights common qualitative themes and identifies opportunities for further research and potential coordination among these efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

State of Innovation 2025: Progress in Accelerating Next-Generation Cement and Concrete Technologies

The cement and concrete sectors are entering a decisive period as next-generation technologies advance from laboratory research to demonstration, early deployment, and first-of-a-kind commercial plants. Building on the 2024 State of Innovation report, the 2025 outlook highlights both the rapid acceleration of innovation and the urgent need for coordinated action across the value chain. Venture capital activity into the cement and concrete space stabilized following the record surge of 2022-2023, yet landmark financings, such as Sublime Systems' $200 million round and Terra CO2's $124 million Series B, signal continued investor confidence in companies approaching commercialization. Corporate procurement has become a powerful new catalyst, with Microsoft, Amazon, and CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) Ventures providing long-term commitments that underpin the first wave of next-generation cementitious products. The sector is shifting from early-stage experimentation toward the scaling of well-capitalized leaders capable of bridging the critical "capitalization gap." Early innovators continue to expand the toolkit through novel binders, electrochemical cements, biogenic limestone, and carbonate mineralization pathways. Going into 2026, cost competitiveness, durability validation, and scalability enabled by resilient supply chains remain the decisive factors for market adoption. At the 2025 Next Generation Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Meeting, attendees emphasized dual-track funding strategies that integrate federal grants with private capital as key to enabling market breakthrough. State programs and corporate demand are sustaining momentum, while successful companies increasingly demonstrate both economic value and reduced dependence on imported materials. The National Concrete Pavement Technology Center and others underscored that broad integration of next-generation materials will hinge on standards compatibility, verified field performance, and workforce readiness. Colorado continues to serve as a proving ground through pilot programs that combine supplier training, phased implementation, and real-world data to de-risk innovation and provide replicable models for other regions. The 2025 Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Workshop reinforced that scaling next-generation materials will require alignment among technology innovation, performance validation, and market demand. Stakeholders must move beyond siloed efforts toward collaborative frameworks that coordinate standards, funding, and infrastructure deployment. As a neutral convener and technical validator, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) plays a pivotal role in bridging innovation and market adoption through collaborative research, technology validation, and entrepreneurship programs. By uniting innovators, incumbents, policymakers, contractors, and investors, NLR and its partners are helping chart a credible pathway toward widespread commercialization in the decade ahead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗