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At least 289 records · Page 16

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

Synchrotron-driven Instabilities in Relativistic Plasmas of Arbitrary Opacity

Recent work has shown that synchrotron emission from relativistic plasmas leads the electron distribution to form an anisotropic ring in momentum space, which can be unstable to both kinetic and hydrodynamic instabilities. Fundamental to these works was the assumption that the plasma was optically thin, allowing all emitted radiation to escape. Here, we examine the behavior of these instabilities as the plasma becomes more optically thick. To do this, we extend a recently developed Fokker–Planck operator for synchrotron emission and absorption in mildly relativistic plasmas to ultrarelativistic plasmas. For a given set of plasma parameters, photons emitted by higher-energy electrons tend to be higher frequency, and thus more easily escape the plasma. As a result, the ratio of the photon emission rate (radiative drag) to absorption rate (radiative diffusion) for a given electron is extremely energy dependent. Given this behavior, we determine the critical parameters that control the opacity, and show how the plasma gradually transitions to become more isotropic and stable at higher opacity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inclusive jet and hadron suppression in a multistage approach

We present a new study of jet interactions in the quark-gluon plasma created in high-energy heavy-ion collisions, using a multistage event generator within the jetscape framework. We focus on medium-induced modifications in the rate of inclusive jets and high transverse momentum (high-p T ) hadrons. Scattering-induced jet energy loss is calculated in two stages: a high virtuality stage based on the matter model, in which scattering of highly virtual partons modifies the vacuum radiation pattern, and a second stage at lower jet virtuality based on the LBT model, in which leading partons gain and lose virtuality by scattering and radiation. Coherence effects that reduce the medium-induced emission rate in the matter phase are also included. The TRENTO model is used for initial conditions, and the (2 + 1)dimensional VISHNU model is used for viscous hydrodynamic evolution. Jet interactions with the medium are modeled via 2-to-2 scattering with Debye screened potentials, in which the recoiling partons are tracked, hadronized, and included in the jet clustering. Holes left in the medium are also tracked and subtracted to conserve transverse momentum. Calculations of the nuclear modification factor (R AA ) for inclusive jets and high-p T hadrons are compared to experimental measurements at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Within this framework, we find that with one extra parameter which codifies the transition between stages of jet modification—along with the typical parameters such as the coupling in the medium, the start and stop criteria, etc.—we can describe these data at all energies for central and semicentral collisions without a rescaling of the jet transport coefficient q.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cooling of neutron stars

It is at present impossible to predict the interior constitution of neutron stars based on theory and results from laboratory studies. It has been proposed that it is possible to obtain information on neutron star interiors by studying thermal radiation from their surfaces, because neutrino emission rates, and hence the temperature of the central part of a neutron star, depend on the properties of dense matter. The theory predicts that neutron stars cool relatively slowly if their cores are made up of nucleons, and cool faster if the matter is in an exotic state, such as a pion condensate, a kaon condensate, or quark matter. This view has recently been questioned by the discovery of a number of other processes that could lead to copious neutrino emission and rapid cooling.

Pethick, C. J.↗

Sensitivity of the active neutron coincidence collar response during simulated and experimental fresh fuel assay

Verification of the fissile (and fertile) content in fresh nuclear fuel assemblies is conducted by the IAEA to enforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty using the UNCL (Uranium Neutron Collar — Light Water Reactor Fuel). The UNCL uses an uncorrelated AmLi neutron source to interrogate the fuel, producing a signal of coincident fission neutrons (Doubles rate) used to assay 235 U content of the fuel. The cost of producing calibration assemblies and limited availability of diverse commercial assemblies at any one time historically restricted the ability to explore the full parameter space experimentally. Monte Carlo simulations can overcome this, but introduce additional sources of uncertainty. In this work, the sensitivity of simulations and measurements to various parameters is assessed for a reference 1616 PWR assembly of uniform 3.2% enrichment. Uncertainty contributions in this evaluation include: simulated AmLi neutron source spectrum, AmLi neutron emission rate, AmLi anisotropicity, high density polyethylene (HDPE) density, the precise position of the fuel assembly within the detector, and experimentally the statistical uncertainty. The overall total systematic uncertainty estimate for the simulation of the absolute/relative Doubles rates responses are estimated to be approximately 2.0%/1.5%, and for experimental measurements systematic uncertainty reduces to 1.1%. This analysis supports further work using the relative Doubles rates in place of measurements for updating and extending the UNCL analysis methodology as systematic uncertainty is reasonably small.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Accuracy requirements

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Delgenio, Anthony↗

Dicarboxylic acid emissions from a GDI engine equipped with a catalytic gasoline particulate filter

Dicarboxylic acids play an important role in atmospheric chemistry, yet their emissions from primary sources, such as internal combustion engines, has not been extensively studied. In this paper, KOH impregnated quartz filters were loaded with exhaust gases from a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine equipped with a catalytic gasoline particulate filter (GPF). All filters were analyzed for carboxylic and dicarboxylic acids using a derivatized gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy method. Exhaust gas was sampled from pre-GPF and post-GPF locations to determine the performance of the GPF regarding acid conversion. Lean and stoichiometric engine modes were considered with non-oxygenated gasoline and 10% splash blended ethanol in gasoline (E10) to examine the impact of stoichiometry and fuel type. Acid emissions represented as much as 0.51% of total unburned hydrocarbon emissions for total monocarboxylic acids and as much as 0.40% for total dicarboxylic acids. Individual acid concentrations were as high as 38 mg/kg-fuel for monocarboxylic acids and as high as 29 mg/kg-fuel for dicarboxylic acids. Overall, the study found that fuel oxygenates had mixed impact on the acid emissions. Engine-out monocarboxylic acids were reduced when using the E10 fuel by approximately 30–45% for the stoichiometric condition and increased marginally for the lean condition. Dicarboxylic acid emissions were generally insensitive to ethanol content. However, the engine condition significantly affected the acid emissions. Lean operation produced a factor of two to an order of magnitude higher emissions rates of both monocarboxylic and dicarboxylic acids than the stoichiometric condition. The catalytic GPF eliminated between 80 and 92% of the acids emitted from the engine, allowing some acids to be emitted into the environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Calculated and observed features of stable auroral red arcs during three geomagnetic storms.

Satellite electron temperature and density data are used to calculate the structure of several stable auroral red arcs (SAR arcs) according to the thermal conduction model of the arc. The calculated lambda 6300 emission rates are compared with ground-based photometric observations taken at the same time and in the vicinity of the satellite crossings of the arcs. The SAR arcs analyzed include a range of lambda 6300 intensities, geographical locations, and times during the associated geomagnetic storm. In addition, satellite data were obtained at different altitudes over and within the SAR-arc region. Enhanced electron temperatures within or on the equatorward edge of an electron-density depression are common features of all the SAR arcs examined. There is general agreement between the calculated and observed lambda 6300 emission features for SAR arcs observed during the geomagnetic storm periods of Oct. 29 to Nov. 2, 1968, May 14-15, 1969, and Mar. 8-9, 1970. For these SAR arcs, thermal conduction from the magnetosphere alone is sufficient to excite the lambda 6300 emission to its observed intensity.

Roble, R. G.↗

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗

Gulf of Mexico Health & Air Quality Ii: Mapping Methane Emission Plumes Using Sunglint-Configured Imagery for Monitoring Offshore Oil and Gas Activity

Offshore oil and gas production in the United States is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and accounts for nearly 30% of global oil and gas production. Methane venting and flaring are primary contributors to offshore emissions, and monitoring these activities is crucial for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Limited ground truthing and intermittent offshore satellite revisits make monitoring venting and flaring challenging. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) oversee offshore oil and gas activity but rely primarily on operator-reported data. The non-profit organization SkyTruth monitors natural resources like methane and identifies sources of fugitive emissions. By combining BOEM and BSEE’s operational data along with observations from Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 9 OLI-2, and PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), the team further identified ultra-emitter point sources in the Gulf of Mexico using sunglint-configured imagery. We quantified these plume emission rates using the methodology from Varon et al. (2020). The team found three plumes in the Gulf of Mexico occurring between 2020 and 2022 using Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat 9 OLI-2 imagery, in addition to the single plume identified by the Gulf of Mexico Health & Air Quality I team, and successfully quantified three plumes. Our statistical retrieval of three PRISMA images tasked over areas of interest yielded no methane plumes, despite a successful test of a known plume in Assam, India. These analyses serve as a proof of concept for the utility of remote sensing for methane emission monitoring offshore, which can complement regulator emission inventories and validate self-reported operator records.

sunglint↗

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A variational method for the sheath potential of hypersonic leading edges with space-charge limitations

Electron transpiration cooling for the leading edges (LE) of hypersonic aircraft utilizes thermionic emission; however, space-charge effects limit the electron emission rate, potentially diminishing the efficiency of this cooling mechanism. We develop a variational weak form of the Poisson equation that describes the sheath potential and then numerically solve it using the finite element method. This formulation has two main benefits: (1) the space-charge limit condition can be incorporated as a constraint and (2) it allows for the analysis of three-dimensional geometries with complex boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the current emitted from the surface of an LE is generally a small fraction of the Child–Langmuir limit due to space charge. We then propose several methods to enhance the emitted current from the surface and to boost the cooling effect of thermionic emission. These include increasing the plasma density, applying a negative surface potential, and using fringe fields under suitable geometric conditions. For a LaB6 emitting LE, the total emitted current is shown to be minimal and independent of the temperature of a surface with floating potential. However, when a negative potential is applied and the surface is heated, the emitted current follows the Richardson–Dushman relationship up to a critical temperature, beyond which it remains constant. At an applied surface potential of −5 V, the critical temperature is around 1700 K.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions

Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Air Mobility Network and Vehicle Type - Modeling and Assessment

This paper describes exploratory modeling of an on-demand urban air mobility (UAM) network and sizing of vehicles to operate within that network. UAM seeks to improve the movement of goods and people around a metropolitan area by utilizing the airspace for transport. Aircraft sizing and overall network performance results are presented that include comparisons of battery-electric and various hybrid-electric vehicles that are fueled with diesel, jet fuel, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hybrid-electric propulsion systems consisting of internal combustion engine-generators, turbine-generators, and solid oxide fuel cells are explored. Ultimately, the "performance" of the UAM network over a day for each of the different vehicle types, propulsion systems, and stored energy sources is described in four parameters: 1) the average cost per seat-kilometer, which considers the costs of the energy/fuel, vehicle acquisition, insurance, maintenance, pilot, and battery replacement costs, 2) carbon dioxide emission rates associated with vehicle operations, 3) the average passenger wait time, and 4) the average load factor, i.e., the total number of seats filled with paying passengers divided by the total number of available seats. Results indicate that the "dispatch model," which determines when and where aircraft are flown around the UAM network, is critical in determining the overall network performance. This is due to the often-conflicting desires to allow passengers to depart with minimal wait time while still maintaining a high load factor to reduce operating costs. Additionally, regardless of the dispatch model, hybrid-electric aircraft powered by internal combustion engines fueled with diesel or LNG are consistently the lowest cost per seat-kilometer. Battery-electric and future technology LNG/solid oxide fuel cell aircraft produce the lowest emissions (assuming the California grid) with LNG-fueled internal combustion engine-powered hybrids producing only slightly more carbon dioxide.

Assessment↗

Assessing the Potential Impact of Fugitive Methane Emissions on Offshore Platform Safety

One of the biggest risks to safety on offshore platform safety is the ignition of high-pressure natural gas streams. Currently, the size and number of fugitive emissions on offshore platforms is unknown and methods used to detect fugitives have significant shortcomings. To investigate the frequency, size, and potential impact of fugitives, a data collection exercise was conducted using incidents reported, leak survey data, and independent measurements. The size and number of fugitives on offshore facilities were simulated to investigate likely areas of safety concern. Incident reports indicate in 2021 there were 113 reports of gas leaks on 1119 offshore facilities, suggesting 0.02 fugitives per Type 1 facility (older, shallow-water platforms) and 0.31 fugitives per Type 2 facility (larger deeper-water facilities). Leak survey data report 12 fugitives per Type 1 facility (average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and 15 fugitives per Type 2 facility (average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Reconciliation of direct measurements with a bottom-up model suggests that the number of fugitive emissions generated from the leak report data is an underestimate for Type 1 platforms (44 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and in general agreement for the Type 2 platforms (15 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Analysis of the fugitive emission rates on an offshore platform suggests that gas will not collect to explosive concentration if any air movement is present (>0.36 mph); however, large volumes of air (~600 m 3 ) near representative leaks on the working deck could become explosive in hour-long zero-wind conditions. We suggest that wearable technology could be employed to indicate gas build up, safety regulations amended to consider low-wind conditions and real-world experiments are conducted to test assumptions of air mixing on the working deck.

explosion↗

Evaluation of Minimum Detectable Activities for Stack Sample Analyses

The Rad-NESHAP program takes samples at major point sources to track how much of select nuclides are being emitted out of the stack. Samples are taken at the site where the radiological operations are being performed. The samples are then sent to analytical laboratories for analysis to determine what nuclides exist in the sample. However, due to the sensitivity of the instruments, false positives are often reported. To reduce the number of false positives, the results reported from the analytical labs are compared to set detection limits. Anything below the set detection limit is considered part of the background while anything above the limit is considered a positive hit. Therefore, the detection limit must be set low enough that any false negatives do not result in a significant dose missed at the end of the year but high enough that there are not enough false positives to skew the annual dose being reported. All detection limits listed in this section for the analyses below were designed to meet the stated equivalent emissions rate and subsequent off-site doses. These minimum detectable activities (MDAs) were developed in the 1990s and documented in the memo cited for each analysis below. These limits and memos are all currently referenced in the Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) for the Rad-NESHAP Compliance Task, which is being updated to a Project Implementation Plan (PIP) concurrently with this document. As part of this update process, the original MDAs defined in this section needed to be verified that they were still conservative and meet the off-site dose levels stated.

2019 MDA↗

Sensitivity of the 6300 A twilight airglow to neutral composition

The field line interhemispheric plasma (FLIP) model is used to study the 6300 A line intensity measured during three morning twilights from the McDonald Observatory in Texas. The Imaging Spectrometric Observatory (ISO) measured the 6300 A intensity during the winter of 1987 and the spring and summer of 1988. The FLIP model reproduces the measured intensity and its variation through the twilight well on each day using neutral densities from the MSIS-86 empirical model. This is in spite of the fact that different component sources dominate the integrated volume emission rate on each of the days analyzed. The sensitivity of the intensity to neutral composition is computed by varying the N2, O2, and O densities in the FLIP model and comparing to the intensity computed with the unmodified MSIS-86 densities. The ion densities change self-consistently. Thus the change in neutral composition also changes the electron density. The F2 peak height is unchanged in the model runs for a given day. The intensity changes near 100 deg SZA are comparable to within 10% when either (O2), (N2), or (O) is changed, regardless of which component source is dominant. There is strong sensitivity to changes in (N2) when dissociative recombination is dominant, virtually no change in the nighttime (SZA greater than or equal to 108 deg) intensity with (O2) doubled, and sensitivity of over 50% to doubling or halving (O) at night. When excitation by conjugate photoelectrons is the dominant nighttime component source, the relative intensity change with (O) doubled or halved is very small. This study shows the strong need for simultaneous measurements of electron density and of emissions proportional to photoelectron fluxes if the 6300 A twilight airglow is to be used to retrieve neutral densities.

Melendez-Alvira, D. J.↗