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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic Models as Framework for Understanding Biomarker Disposition: Prediction of Creatinine‐Drug Interactions

Creatinine is widely used as a biomarker of glomerular filtration, and, hence, renal function. However, transporter‐mediated secretion also contributes to its renal clearance, albeit to a lesser degree. Inhibition of these transporters causes transient serum creatinine elevation, which can be mistaken as impaired renal function. The current study developed mechanistic models of creatinine kinetics within physiologically based framework accounting for multiple transporters involved in creatinine renal elimination, assuming either unidirectional or bidirectional‐OCT2 transport (driven by electrochemical gradient). Robustness of creatinine models was assessed by predicting creatinine‐drug interactions with 10 perpetrators; performance evaluation accounted for 5% intra‐individual variability in serum creatinine. Models showed comparable predictive performances of the maximum steady‐state effect regardless of OCT2 directionality assumptions. However, only the bidirectional‐OCT2 model successfully predicted the minimal effect of ranitidine. The dynamic nature of models provides clear advantage to static approaches and most advanced framework for evaluating interplay between multiple processes in creatinine renal disposition.

Scotcher, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Time and Frequency Domain Wave Forcing on the Power Estimation of a Wave Energy Converter Array

Industry-specific tools for analyzing and optimizing the design of wave energy converters (WECs) and associated power systems are essential to advancing marine renewable energy. This study aims to quantify the influence of phase information on the device power output of a virtual WEC array. We run the phase-resolving wave model FUNWAVE-TVD (Total Variation Diminishing) to generate directional waves at the PacWave South site offshore from Newport, Oregon, where future WECs are expected to be installed for testing. The two broad cases presented correspond to mean wave climates during warm months (March–August) and cold months (September–February). FUNWAVE-TVD time series of sea-surface elevation are then used in WEC-Sim, a time domain numerical model, to simulate the hydrodynamic response of each device in the array and estimate their power output. For comparison, WEC-Sim is also run with wave energy spectra calculated from the FUNWAVE-TVD simulations, which do not retain phase information, and with wave spectra computed using the phase-averaged model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). The use of spectral data in WEC-Sim requires a conversion from frequency to time domain by means of random superposition of wave components, which are not necessarily consistent because of the linear assumption implicit in this method. Thus, power response is characterized by multiple realizations of the wave climates.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mineral Protection and Resource Limitations Combine to Explain Profile-Scale Soil Carbon Persistence

The fate of soil carbon (C) is largely controlled by microbial oxidation of organic matter (OM), which is constrained by a variety of mechanisms. OM association with soil minerals provides pronounced protection against microbial decomposition. However, factors such as climate, occlusion, and resource limitations also contribute to OM preservation. Here, we explore the factors explaining C distribution and age within an upland rainforest soil in Hawai'i, a site with abundant preferential flow paths (PFPs) and high short-range order (SRO) mineral content. We characterized lateral and vertical changes in Δ 14 C, SRO mineral content, C-functional group chemistry, and microbial community composition to elucidate the contributions of multiple protection mechanisms to OM preservation. Consistent with our expectation, SRO mineral content and Δ 14 C were strongly correlated (R 2 = 0.95), indicating strong mineral protection of OM throughout the profile. Surprisingly, distance from PFP was also a significant predictor of Δ 14 C and improved model fit, particularly in the shallow horizons (R 2 = 0.97). Elevated C/N ratios, decreased microbial abundance, and greater SRO mineral content suggest nitrogen limitations and enhanced mineral protection constrain OM turnover with distance from PFPs in deep, subsurface mineral horizons. Steady microbial abundance, increasing putative anaerobe abundance, and changes in C-functional group chemistry indicate oxygen limitations constrain OM turnover in the matrix of shallow mineral horizons. Given that oxygen and nutrient limitations contribute to OM preservation in this high SRO system—an exemplar of mineral protection—resource limitations may play an even more important role in OM preservation in other well-structured soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring thermal equilibria of the Fermi-Hubbard model with variational quantum algorithms

Here, this study investigates the thermal properties of the repulsive Fermi-Hubbard model with chemical potential using variational quantum algorithms, crucial in comprehending particle behaviour within lattices at heightened temperatures in condensed matter systems. Conventional computational methods encounter challenges, especially in managing chemical potential, prompting exploration into Hamiltonian approaches. Despite the promise of quantum algorithms, their efficacy is hampered by coherence limitations when simulating extended imaginary time evolution sequences. To overcome these constraints, this research focuses on optimizing variational quantum algorithms to probe the thermal properties of the Fermi-Hubbard model. Physics-inspired circuit designs are tailored to alleviate coherence constraints, facilitating a more comprehensive exploration of materials at elevated temperatures. Our study demonstrates the potential of variational algorithms in simulating the thermal properties of the Fermi-Hubbard model while acknowledging limitations stemming from error sources in quantum devices and encountering barren plateaus.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal and electric field driven rf breakdown precursor formation on metal surfaces

The phenomenon of electric breakdown poses serious challenges to the design of devices that operate in high electric field environments. Experimental evidence points toward breakdown events that are accompanied by elevated temperatures and dark current spikes, which is attributed to high-asperity nanostructure formation that enhances the local electric field and triggers a runaway process. However, the exact mechanistic origin of such nanostructures under typical macroscopic operational conditions of electric field and magnetic-field-mediated heating remains poorly understood. In this work, we simulate the evolution of a copper surface under the combined action of the electric fields and elevated temperatures. Using a mesoscale curvature-driven surface evolution model, we show how a copper surface can undergo a type of dynamical instability that naturally leads to the formation of sharp asperities in realistic experimental conditions. Exploring the combined effect of fields and temperature rise, we identify the critical regimes that allow for the formation of breakdown precursors. The results show that thermoelastic stresses, while not essential, can significantly lower the critical electric field required for runaway surface instability, which is consistent with experimental observations that thermal effects can increase breakdown rates. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water Mediated Proton Hopping Furazan Mechanism that Accelerates the Decomposition of TATB

The dominant initial decomposition mechanism of TATB is believed to be a dehydration reaction that forms mono- and di-furazans, although other mechanisms have been reported. In this work, a mono-furazan mechanism is discovered that involves a proton hopping process between TATB and water. A first principles nudge elastic band calculation was performed that shows the mechanism has an energy barrier of 44.1 kcal/mol, 25.4 kcal/mol lower than the monofurazan mechanism without water. The reaction rate of the proton hopping mechanism was found to be 10 7 to 10 12 times (at 300-600 K) higher than the mechanism without water. Metadynamics simulations were also performed that indicate the mechanism is qualitatively more probable at lower temperatures (near 300 K) and higher pressures (near 100 bar), although a quantitative confirmation is needed. Future work should focus on modeling the proton hopping mechanism in the condensed state at elevated temperatures (near 600 K).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Investigation of Wall-Cooling Effect on Aero-Optical Distortions for Hypersonic Boundary Layer

Compressible wall-modeled large-eddy simulations of Mach 8 turbulent boundary-layer flows over a flat plate were carried out for the conditions of the hypersonic wind tunnel at Sandia National Laboratories. The simulations provide new insight into the effect of wall cooling on the aero-optical path distortions for hypersonic turbulent boundary-layer flows. Four different wall-to-recovery temperature ratios, 0.3, 0.48, 0.71, and 0.89, are considered. Despite the much lower grid resolution, the mean velocity, temperature, and resolved Reynolds stress profiles from the simulation for a temperature ratio of 0.48 are in good agreement with those from a reference direct numerical simulation. The normalized root-mean-square optical path difference obtained from the present simulations is compared with that from reference direct numerical simulations, Sandia experiments, as well as predictions obtained with a semi-analytical model by Notre Dame University. Here the present analysis focuses on the effect of wall cooling on the wall-normal density correlations, on key underlying assumptions of the aforementioned model such as the strong Reynolds analogy, and on the elevation angle effect on the optical path difference. Wall cooling is found to increase the velocity fluctuations and decrease the density fluctuations, resulting in an overall reduction of the normalized optical path distortion. Compared to the simulations, the basic strong Reynolds analogy overpredicts the temperature fluctuations for cooled walls. Also different from the strong Reynolds analogy, the velocity and temperature fluctuations are not perfectly anticorrelated. Finally, as the wall temperature is raised, the density correlation length, away from the wall but inside the boundary layer, increases significantly for beam paths tilted in the downstream direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pressure Gain, Stability, and Operability of Methane/Syngas Based RDEs Under Steady and Transient Conditions (Final Project Report)

The scope of this work addresses key issues associated with losses associated with the detonation wave and other processes internal to the RDE operation, as well as it develops modeling tools for the evaluation of these losses and exhaust emissions in RDEs. The main challenge in studying RDEs is that RDE performance is highly reliant on the specifics of the design so much so that simple/canonical systems alone cannot provide useful engineering information, but practical RDE designs are sufficiently complex and involve extreme operational environments that detailed access either experimentally (laser diagnostics, for instance) or computationally (direct numerical simulations) are as yet to become practical. To overcome this challenge, we have conducted a combined experimental/simulation/analytical study investigating key phenomena that control the characteristics of operation of RDEs. As a result, the study has developed tools and methods that can be used to evaluate performance and design approaches using reduced-physics models, with the assumptions validated using detailed simulations, and the model prediction tested using experimental observations. The specific objectives of the research were: (1) Develop and demonstrate a low-loss fully axial injection concept, taking advantage of stratification effects to alter the detonation structure and position the wave favorably within the combustor; (2) Obtain stability and operability characteristics of an RDE across operating conditions to aid in the development of operability and performance rules for the operations of other systems; and (3) Develop quantitative metrics for performance gain as well as quantitative description of the loss mechanisms through a combination of diagnostics development, reduced-order modeling, and detailed simulations. The work conducted here has made contribution on design of low-loss inlets that has broad application within the power generation industry for use with pressure gain combustion. The operability and stability of different designs, while focusing on axial air inlet designs, has been analyzed. The effect of nozzle and injection conditions was studied. Models and simulations of exhaust emissions, focusing on NOx emission has been developed and used to investigate how operation of the RDE affect NOx production using Lagrangian analysis of RDE simulations. This work has built on previous programs, with the goal of further understanding operation of RDEs and elevate the readiness of design consideration. In addition, a suite of diagnostic and modeling tools have been developed to obtain quantitative metrics on performance based on measurements, which can be readily transferred to other experimental configurations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from Bioenergy Sorghum Maintains Photosynthetic Capacity in Elevated Ozone Concentrations

Elevated tropospheric ozone concentration (O3) significantly reduces photosynthesis and productivity in several C4 crops including maize, switchgrass and sugarcane. However, it is unknown how O3 affects plant growth, development and productivity in sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L.), an emerging C4 bioenergy crop. Here, we investigated the effects of elevated O3 on photosynthesis, biomass and nutrient composition of a number of sorghum genotypes over two seasons in the field using free-air concentration enrichment (FACE), and in growth chambers. We also tested if elevated O3 altered the relationship between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions using two common stomatal conductance models. Sorghum genotypes showed significant variability in plant functional traits, including photosynthetic capacity, leaf N content and specific leaf area, but responded similarly to O3. At the FACE experiment, elevated O3 did not alter net CO2 assimilation (A), stomatal conductance (gs), stomatal sensitivity to the environment, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant biomass, but led to reductions in the maximum carboxylation capacity of phosphoenolpyruvate and increased stomatal limitation to A in both years. These findings suggest that bioenergy sorghum is tolerant to O3 and could be used to enhance biomass productivity in O3 polluted regions.

Feedstock Production↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Genetic and Physiological Divergence on the Evolution of a Sulfate-Reducing Bacterium under Conditions of Elevated Temperature

ABSTRACT Adaptation via natural selection is an important driver of evolution, and repeatable adaptations of replicate populations, under conditions of a constant environment, have been extensively reported. However, isolated groups of populations in nature tend to harbor both genetic and physiological divergence due to multiple selective pressures that they have encountered. How this divergence affects adaptation of these populations to a new common environment remains unclear. To determine the impact of prior genetic and physiological divergence in shaping adaptive evolution to accommodate a new common environment, an experimental evolution study with the sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough (DvH) was conducted. Two groups of replicate populations with genetic and physiological divergence, derived from a previous evolution study, were propagated in an elevated-temperature environment for 1,000 generations. Ancestor populations without prior experimental evolution were also propagated in the same environment as a control. After 1,000 generations, all the populations had increased growth rates and all but one had greater fitness in the new environment than the ancestor population. Moreover, improvements in growth rate were moderately affected by the divergence in the starting populations, while changes in fitness were not significantly affected. The mutations acquired at the gene level in each group of populations were quite different, indicating that the observed phenotypic changes were achieved by evolutionary responses that differed between the groups. Overall, our work demonstrated that the initial differences in fitness between the starting populations were eliminated by adaptation and that phenotypic convergence was achieved by acquisition of mutations in different genes. IMPORTANCE Improving our understanding of how previous adaptation influences evolution has been a long-standing goal in evolutionary biology. Natural selection tends to drive populations to find similar adaptive solutions for the same selective conditions. However, variations in historical environments can lead to both physiological and genetic divergence that can make evolution unpredictable. Here, we assessed the influence of divergence on the evolution of a model sulfate-reducing bacterium, Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough, in response to elevated temperature and found a significant effect at the genetic but not the phenotypic level. Understanding how these influences drive evolution will allow us to better predict how bacteria will adapt to various ecological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Recalibration of the Solubility Models in Support of the Heater Test in Salt Formations

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy is conducting a brine availability heater test to characterize the thermal, mechanical, hydrological and chemical response of salt at elevated temperatures. In the heater test, brines will be collected and analyzed for chemical compositions. In order to support the geochemical modeling of chemical evolutions of the brines during the heater test, we are recalibrating and validating the solubility models for the mineral constituents in salt formations up to 100°C, based on the solubility data in multiple component systems as well as simple systems from literature. In this work, we systematically compare the model-predicted values based on the various solubility models related to the constituents of salt formations, with the experimental data. As halite is the dominant constituent in salt formations, we first test the halite solubility model in the Na-Mg-Cl dominated brines. We find the existing halite solubility model systematically over-predict the solubility of halite. We recalibrate the halite model, which can reproduce halite solubilities in Na-Mg-Cl dominated brines well. As gypsum/anhydrite in salt formations controls the sulfate concentrations in associated brines, we test the gypsum solubility model in NaCl solutions up to 5.87 mol•kg –1 from 25 ° C to 50 ° C. The testing shows that the current gypsum solubility model reproduces the experimental data well when NaCl concentrations are less than 1 mol•kg –1 . However, at NaCl concentrations higher than 1, the model systematically overpredicts the solubility of gypsum. In the Na + —Cl – —SO 4 2– —CO 3 2– system, the validation tests up to 100 ° C demonstrate that the model excellently reproduces the experimental data for the solution compositions equilibrated with one single phase such as halite (NaCl) or thenardite (Na 2 SO 4 ), with deviations equal to, or less than, 1.5 %. The model is much less ideal in reproducing the compositions in equilibrium with the assemblages of halite + thenardite, and of halite + thermonatrite (Na 2 CO 3 •H 2 O), with deviations up to 31 %. The high deviations from the experimental data for the multiple assemblages in this system at elevated temperatures may be attributed to the facts that the database has the Pitzer interaction parameters for Cl – —CO 3 2– and SO 4 2– —CO 3 2– only at 25 ° C. Finally, in the Na + —Ca 2+ —SO 4 2– —HCO 3 – system, the validation tests also demonstrate that the model reproduces the equilibrium compositions for one single phase such as gypsum better than the assemblages of more than one phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗