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Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.
A method of interpolating atmospheric soundings while reducing the errors associated with simple time interpolation was developed. The purpose of this was to provide a means to determine atmospheric stability at times between standard soundings and to relate changes in stability to intensity changes in an MCC. Four MCC cases were chosen for study with this method with four stability indices being included. The discussion centers on three aspects for each stability parameter examined: the stability field in the vicinity of the storm and its changes in structure and magnitude during the lifetime of the storm, the average stability within the storm boundary as a function of time and its relation to storm intensity, and the apparent flux of stability parameter into the storm as a consequence of low-level storm relative flow. It was found that the results differed among the four stability parameters, sometimes in a conflicting fashion. Thus, an interpolation of how the storm intensity is related to the changing environmental stability depends upon the particular index utilized. Some explanation for this problem is offered.
A fully instrumented, low-wing, single-engine general aviation airplane has been spin tested. Several tail configurations, wing leading-edge modifications, fuselage modifications, moment-of-inertia variations, center-of-gravity positions, and control inputs have been tested to determine their effect on spinning and spin recovery. Results indicate that wing airfoil design can significantly influence airplane spin and recovery characteristics and can overpower the effects of tail design. Results also point out a need to determine limitations of such factors as Reynolds number in model spin test techniques and high angle-of-attack aerodynamics.
Force tests on a 0.0035-scale model of the General Dynamics/Convair aerospace space shuttle B-15B-1 booster were conducted in the MSFC trisonic wind tunnel. The configuration has a low delta wing, all-movable delta-planform canard controls, and a single vertical tail. The test was devoted to investigating the effects of various configuration variables upon lateral-directional characteristics. These variables included wing dihedral, rudder flare, and body flap deflection. Yaw runs were made at angles of attack of 6, 10, 15, 25, 30, and 35 degrees. The Mach number range for this test was 1.20 to 4.96.
Radiation-induced heart disease presents a significant challenge in the event of an accidental radiation exposure as well as to cancer patients who receive acute doses of irradiation as part of radiation therapy. We utilized the spontaneously hypertensive Wistar-Kyoto rat model, previously shown to demonstrate drug-induced cardiomyopathy, to evaluate the acute and long-term effects of sub-lethal total body gamma irradiation at two, four, and fiftytwo weeks. We further examined irreversible oxidative protein carbonylation in the heart immediately following irradiation in the normotensive Wistar-Kyoto rat. Both males and females sustained weight loss and anemic conditions compared to untreated controls over a one-year period as reflected by reduced body weight and low red blood cell count. Increased inflammation was detected by elevated IL-6 serum levels selectively in males at four weeks. Serum cardiac troponin T and I analyses revealed signs of cardiomyopathy at earlier timepoints, but high variability was observed, especially at one year. Echocardiography at two weeks following 5.0Gy treatment revealed a significant decrease in cardiac output in females and a significant decrease in both diastolic and systolic volumes in males. Following 10.0Gy irradiation in the normotensive Wistar-Kyoto rat, the heart tissue showed an increase in total protein oxidative carbonylation accompanied by DNA damage indicated by an increase in γ-H2AX. Using proteomic analyses, we identified several novel proteins which showed a marked difference in carbonylation including those of mitochondrial origin and most notably, cardiac troponin T, one of the key proteins involved in cardiomyocyte contractility. Overall, we present findings of acute oxidative protein damage, DNA damage, cardiac troponin T carbonylation, and long-term cardiomyopathy in the irradiated animals.
Numerical modelling results are reported from a pilot study investigating the feasibility of developing a technique for daily soil moisture measurement throughout the world, based on GOES infrared data. A detailed one-dimensional boundary layer-surface-soil model was used in order to determine which physical parameters observable from GOES are most sensitive to soil moisture, and which are most effected by seasonal changes, atmospheric effects and vegetation cover. The results of the sensitivity test show that the mid-morning differential of surface temperature with respect to absorbed solar radiation is optimally sensitive to soil moisture. A case study comparing model results with GOES infrared data confirms the sensitivity of this parameter to soil moisture and also confirms the applicability of the model to predicting area-averaged surface temperature changes. Model measurements of soil moisture are expected to be most accurate for dry or marginal agricultural areas where drought is common. Sources of error, including the advection of clouds, are examined and methods of minimizing error are discussed.
Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.
The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.
The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.
Abstract Subseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.
Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.
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Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.
Functional evaluation of blood circulation and use in selecting and training flying personnel
Effect of parachute jumping on metabolism of proteins and vitamins
Pathomorphological effects of radial accelerations on dog organism