NASA NTRS2017
The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.