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At least 289 records · Page 16

Micro on a macroscale: relating microbial-scale soil processes to global ecosystem function

ABSTRACT Soil microorganisms play a key role in driving major biogeochemical cycles and in global responses to climate change. However, understanding and predicting the behavior and function of these microorganisms remains a grand challenge for soil ecology due in part to the microscale complexity of soils. It is becoming increasingly clear that understanding the microbial perspective is vital to accurately predicting global processes. Here, we discuss the microbial perspective including the microbial habitat as it relates to measurement and modeling of ecosystem processes. We argue that clearly defining and quantifying the size, distribution and sphere of influence of microhabitats is crucial to managing microbial activity at the ecosystem scale. This can be achieved using controlled and hierarchical sampling designs. Model microbial systems can provide key data needed to integrate microhabitats into ecosystem models, while adapting soil sampling schemes and statistical methods can allow us to collect microbially-focused data. Quantifying soil processes, like biogeochemical cycles, from a microbial perspective will allow us to more accurately predict soil functions and address long-standing unknowns in soil ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Simulation Model of Carbon Cycling and Methane Emissions in Amazon Wetlands

An integrative carbon study is investigating the hypothesis that measured fluxes of methane from wetlands in the Amazon region can be predicted accurately using a combination of process modeling of ecosystem carbon cycles and remote sensing of regional floodplain dynamics. A new simulation model has been build using the NASA- CASA concept for predicting methane production and emission fluxes in Amazon river and floodplain ecosystems. Numerous innovations area being made to model Amazon wetland ecosystems, including: (1) prediction of wetland net primary production (NPP) as the source for plant litter decomposition and accumulation of sediment organic matter in two major vegetation classes - flooded forests (varzea or igapo) and floating macrophytes, (2) representation of controls on carbon processing and methane evasion at the diffusive boundary layer, through the lake water column, and in wetland sediments as a function of changes in floodplain water level, (3) inclusion of surface emissions controls on wetland methane fluxes, including variations in daily surface temperature and of hydrostatic pressure linked to water level fluctuations. A model design overview and early simulation results are presented.

Potter, Christopher↗

Mapping the Extent of Mangrove Ecosystem Degradation by Integrating an Ecological Conceptual Model with Satellite Data

Anthropogenic and natural disturbances can cause degradation of ecosystems, reducing their capacity to sustain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. Understanding the extent of ecosystem degradation is critical for estimating risks to ecosystems, yet there are few existing methods to map degradation at the ecosystem scale and none using freely available satellite data for mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we developed a quantitative classification model of mangrove ecosystem degradation using freely available earth observation data. Crucially, a conceptual model of mangrove ecosystem degradation was established to identify suitable remote sensing variables that support the quantitative classification model, bridging the gap between satellite-derived variables and ecosystem degradation with explicit ecological links. We applied our degradation model to two case-studies, the mangroves of Rakhine State, Myanmar, which are severely threatened by anthropogenic disturbances, and Shark River within the Everglades National Park, USA, which is periodically disturbed by severe tropical storms. Our model suggested that 40% (597 km2) of the extent of mangroves in Rakhine showed evidence of degradation. In the Everglades, the model suggested that the extent of degraded mangrove forest increased from 5.1% to 97.4% following the Category 4 Hurricane Irma in 2017. Quantitative accuracy assessments indicated the model achieved overall accuracies of 77.6% and 79.1% for the Rakhine and the Everglades, respectively. We highlight that using an ecological conceptual model as the basis for building quantitative classification models to estimate the extent of ecosystem degradation ensures the ecological relevance of the classification models. Our developed method enables researchers to move beyond only mapping ecosystem distribution to condition and degradation as well. These results can help support ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting, and restoration planning and provide quantitative estimates of ecosystem degradation for new global biodiversity targets.

Calvin K. F. Lee↗

Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

HYDROLOGIC MODELS↗

BOREAS RSS-8 BIOME-BGC Model Simulations at Tower Flux Sites in 1994

BIOME-BGC is a general ecosystem process model designed to simulate biogeochemical and hydrologic processes across multiple scales (Running and Hunt, 1993). In this investigation, BIOME-BGC was used to estimate daily water and carbon budgets for the BOREAS tower flux sites for 1994. Carbon variables estimated by the model include gross primary production (i.e., net photosynthesis), maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production, and net ecosystem carbon exchange. Hydrologic variables estimated by the model include snowcover, evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and outflow. The information provided by the investigation includes input initialization and model output files for various sites in tabular ASCII format.

Hall, Forrest G.↗

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Schimel, David S.↗

Simulating measurable ecosystem carbon and nitrogen dynamics with the mechanistically defined MEMS 2.0 model

Abstract. For decades, predominant soil biogeochemical models have used conceptual soil organic matter (SOM) pools and only simulated them to a shallow depth in soil. Efforts to overcome these limitations have prompted the development of the new generation SOM models, including MEMS 1.0, which represents measurable biophysical SOM fractions, over the entire root zone, and embodies recent understanding of the processes that govern SOM dynamics. Here we present the result of continued development of the MEMS model, version 2.0. MEMS 2.0 is a full ecosystem model with modules simulating plant growth with above- and belowground inputs, soil water and temperature by layer, decomposition of plant inputs and SOM, and mineralization and immobilization of nitrogen (N). The model simulates two commonly measured SOM pools – particulate and mineral-associated organic matter (POM and MAOM, respectively). We present results of calibration and validation of the model with several grassland sites in the US. MEMS 2.0 generally captured the soil carbon (C) stocks (R2 of 0.89 and 0.6 for calibration and validation, respectively) and their distributions between POM and MAOM throughout the entire soil profile. The simulated soil N matches measurements but with lower accuracy (R2 of 0.73 and 0.31 for calibration and validation of total N in SOM, respectively) than for soil C. Simulated soil water and temperature were compared with measurements, and the accuracy is comparable to the other commonly used models. The seasonal variation in gross primary production (GPP; R2 = 0.83), ecosystem respiration (ER; R2 = 0.89), net ecosystem exchange (NEE; R2 = 0.67), and evapotranspiration (ET; R2 = 0.71) was well captured by the model. We will further develop the model to represent forest and agricultural systems and improve it to incorporate new understanding of SOM decomposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Impacts of Plant Stoichiometric Traits on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Accumulation Using the E3SM Land Model

Carbon (C) enters into the terrestrial ecosystems via photosynthesis and cycles through the system together with other essential nutrients (i.e., nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]). Such a strong coupling of C, N, and P leads to the theoretical prediction that limited nutrient availability will limit photosynthesis rate, plant growth, and future terrestrial C dynamics. However, the lack of reliable information about plant tissue stoichiometric constraints remains a challenge for quantifying nutrient limitations on projected global C cycling. In this study, we harmonized observed plant tissue C:N:P stoichiometry from more than 6,000 plant species with the commonly used plant functional type framework in global land models. Using observed C:N:P stoichiometry and the flexibility of these ratios as emergent plant traits, we show that observationally constrained fixed plant stoichiometry does not improve model estimates of present-day C dynamics compared with unconstrained stoichiometry. However, adopting stoichiometric flexibility significantly improves model predictions of C fluxes and stocks. The 21st century simulations with RCP8.5 CO 2 concentrations show that stoichiometric flexibility, rather than baseline stoichiometric ratios, is the dominant controller of plant productivity and ecosystem C accumulation in modeled responses to CO 2 fertilization. The enhanced nutrient limitations and plant P use efficiency mainly explain this result. This study is consistent with the previous consensus that nutrient availability will limit xfuture land carbon sequestration but challenges the idea that imbalances between C and nutrient supplies and fixed stoichiometry limit future land C sinks. We show here that it is necessary to represent nutrient stoichiometric flexibility in models to accurately project future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pyomo.GDP: an ecosystem for logic based modeling and optimization development

We present three core principles for engineering-oriented integrated modeling and optimization tool sets—intuitive modeling contexts, systematic computer-aided reformulations, and flexible solution strategies—and describe how new developments in Pyomo.GDP for Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) advance this vision. We describe a new logical expression system implementation for Pyomo.GDP allowing for a more intuitive description of logical propositions. The logical expression system supports automated reformulation of these logical constraints to linear constraints. We also describe two new logic-based global optimization solver implementations built on Pyomo.GDP that exploit logical structure to avoid “zero-flow” numerical difficulties that arise in nonlinear network design problems when nodes or streams disappear. These new solvers also demonstrate the capability to link to external libraries for expanded functionality within an integrated implementation. We present these new solvers in the context of a flexible array of solution paths available to GDP models. Finally, we present results on a new library of GDP models demonstrating the value of multiple solution approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pathways to a Sustainable Aviation Ecosystem: Electrified Aviation Demand Modeling

With leading energy experts, high-performance computing, and powerful analysis and modeling capabilities, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) empowers aviation stakeholders with tools and data to project future energy demand and explore supply options. As a result, NREL can help electric utilities and airport operations identify aviation electrification opportunities and prepare for future electricity needs.

aerial vehicles↗

Development of Carbon Flux Model Using ABI Data Over the Conterminous US

The satellite-driven carbon flux estimation has been playing important role to estimate continental-scale carbon budget. One of the biggest recent advances in the satellite-driven carbon flux modeling is utilization of high-frequent geostationary satellites to estimate diurnal cycle in carbon fluxes. The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous US. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation were derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Ameriflux data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

geostationary satellite↗

Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling Under Three Schemes of Model Representation: A Traceability Analysis

The interaction between terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles has been incorporated into more and more land surface models. However, the scheme of C-N coupling differs greatly among models, and how these diverse representations of C-N interactions will affect C-cycle modeling remains unclear. In this study, we explored how the simulated ecosystem C storage capacity in the terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model varied with three different commonly used schemes of C-N coupling. The three schemes (SM1, SM2, and SM3) have been used in three different coupled C-N models (i.e., TECO-CN, CLM 4.5, and O-CN, respectively). They differ mainly in the stoichiometry of C and N in vegetation and soils, plant N uptake strategies, down regulation of photosynthesis, and the pathways of N import. We incorporated the three C-N coupling schemes into the C-only version of the TECO model and evaluated their impacts on the C cycle with a traceability framework. Our results showed that all three of the C-N schemes caused significant reductions in steady-state C storage capacity compared with the C-only version with magnitudes of −23%, −30%, and −54% for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. This reduced C storage capacity was mainly derived from the combined effects of decreases in net primary productivity (NPP; −29%, −15%, and −45%) and changes in mean C residence time (MRT; 9%, −17%, and −17%) for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. The differences in NPP are mainly attributed to the different assumptions on plant N uptake, plant tissue C : N ratio, down regulation of photosynthesis, and biological N fixation. In comparison, the alternative representations of the plant vs. microbe competition strategy and the plant N uptake, combined with the flexible C : N ratio in vegetation and soils, led to a notable spread in MRT. These results highlight the fact that the diverse assumptions on N processes represented by different C-N coupled models could cause additional uncertainty for land surface models. Understanding their difference can help us improve the capability of models to predict future biogeochemical cycles of terrestrial ecosystems.

Du, Zhenggang↗