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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Chapter 14: Sustainable Biomass Conversion Process Assessment

Process intensification and integration for sustainable design play an essential role in addressing and alleviating severe sustainable development challenges. It is prudent to evaluate a process design in its early stage development to ensure the process can achieve sustainability goals. The primary goal of a sustainability evaluation is to assess the impact of systems on areas sought to be protected and maintained over time, such as human well-being and ecosystems (Schaubroeck, T. and Rugani, B. (2017). A revision of what life cycle sustainability assessment should entail: towards modeling the net impact on human well-being. Journal of Industrial Ecology 21 (6): 1464-1477). Parenthetically, sustainable process design to convert biomass to fuels and chemicals plays an integral part in the bioeconomy sustainability. It is recognized that the integration of sustainability in process design is core to the mission in developing renewable fuels and should be considered a necessary practice in biorefinery design. This study demonstrates the use of Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Process Evaluator (GREENSCOPE) as a tool to help track progress on process sustainability performance attributed to conversion improvement. With the incorporation of a wide range of indicators, GREENSCOPE captures the multi-dimensional aspect of the process design and operation. As opposed to conventional techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (in which the focuses are limited to economic and environmental aspects), GREENSCOPE enables the consideration of process intensification and integration for sustainable design. A high-octane gasoline production from woody biomass feedstock is used as a case study to demonstrate the approach.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO 2 . Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO 2 ). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expression of macromolecular organic nitrogen degrading enzymes identifies potential mediators of soil organic N availability to an annual grass

Abstract Nitrogen (N) is frequently limiting to plant growth, in part because most soil N is present as polymeric organic compounds that are not readily taken up by plants. Microbial depolymerization of these large macromolecular N-substrates gradually releases available inorganic N. While many studies have researched and modeled controls on soil organic matter formation and bulk N mineralization, the ecological—spatial, temporal and phylogenetic—patterns underlying organic N degradation remain unclear. We analyzed 48 time-resolved metatranscriptomes and quantified N-depolymerization gene expression to resolve differential expression by soil habitat and time in specific taxonomic groups and gene-based guilds. We observed much higher expression of extracellular serine-type proteases than other extracellular N-degrading enzymes, with protease expression of predatory bacteria declining with time and other taxonomic patterns driven by the presence (Gammaproteobacteria) or absence (Thermoproteota) of live roots and root detritus (Deltaproteobacteria and Fungi). The primary chitinase chit1 gene was more highly expressed by eukaryotes near root detritus, suggesting predation of fungi. In some lineages, increased gene expression over time suggests increased competitiveness with rhizosphere age (Chloroflexi). Phylotypes from some genera had protease expression patterns that could benefit plant N nutrition, for example, we identified a Janthinobacterium phylotype and two Burkholderiales that depolymerize organic N near young roots and a Rhizobacter with elevated protease levels near mature roots. These taxon-resolved gene expression results provide an ecological read-out of microbial interactions and controls on N dynamics in specific soil microhabitats and could be used to target potential plant N bioaugmentation strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Abstract Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variation in forest root image annotation by experts, novices, and AI

Abstract Background The manual study of root dynamics using images requires huge investments of time and resources and is prone to previously poorly quantified annotator bias. Artificial intelligence (AI) image-processing tools have been successful in overcoming limitations of manual annotation in homogeneous soils, but their efficiency and accuracy is yet to be widely tested on less homogenous, non-agricultural soil profiles, e.g., that of forests, from which data on root dynamics are key to understanding the carbon cycle. Here, we quantify variance in root length measured by human annotators with varying experience levels. We evaluate the application of a convolutional neural network (CNN) model, trained on a software accessible to researchers without a machine learning background, on a heterogeneous minirhizotron image dataset taken in a multispecies, mature, deciduous temperate forest. Results Less experienced annotators consistently identified more root length than experienced annotators. Root length annotation also varied between experienced annotators. The CNN root length results were neither precise nor accurate, taking ~ 10% of the time but significantly overestimating root length compared to expert manual annotation ( p = 0.01). The CNN net root length change results were closer to manual ( p = 0.08) but there remained substantial variation. Conclusions Manual root length annotation is contingent on the individual annotator. The only accessible CNN model cannot yet produce root data of sufficient accuracy and precision for ecological applications when applied to a complex, heterogeneous forest image dataset. A continuing evaluation and development of accessible CNNs for natural ecosystems is required.

Handy, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-growing Season Plant Nutrient Uptake Controls Arctic Tundra Vegetation Composition: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE-Arctic publication: Riley et al. (2021) “Non-growing season plant nutrient uptake controls Arctic tundra vegetation composition under future climate” (Riley et al., 2021). The dataset contains “ecosys” model outputs reported in Riley et al. (2021) that examines the role of non-growing season (NGS) nutrient dynamics on 21st century vegetation composition. The study highlighted the importance of these nutrient dynamics on the emergent plant functional type distributions, focusing on their role in shrub expansion. The study showed that ignoring NGS nutrient dynamics led to a dramatic under-prediction of shrub expansion by year 2100, motivating the need to include these processes in Earth System Models. Included are modeled net primary production (NPP) and nitrogen (N) uptake for two scenarios: (1) baseline and (2) no NGS N uptake. The output is provided (1) at 25 km resolution across the North American tundra; (2) for years 2012 through 2100; and (3) PFT-specific. Dataset contains 20 NetCDF files in a zip file and one pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leptothrix ochracea genomes reveal potential for mixotrophic growth on Fe(II) and organic carbon

ABSTRACT Leptothrix ochracea creates distinctive iron-mineralized mats that carpet streams and wetlands. Easily recognized by its iron-mineralized sheaths, L. ochracea was one of the first microorganisms described in the 1800s. Yet it has never been isolated and does not have a complete genome sequence available, so key questions about its physiology remain unresolved. It is debated whether iron oxidation can be used for energy or growth and if L. ochracea is an autotroph, heterotroph, or mixotroph. To address these issues, we sampled L. ochracea -rich mats from three of its typical environments (a stream, wetlands, and a drainage channel) and reconstructed nine high-quality genomes of L. ochracea from metagenomes. These genomes contain iron oxidase genes cyc2 and mtoA, showing that L. ochracea has the potential to conserve energy from iron oxidation. Sox genes confer potential to oxidize sulfur for energy. There are genes for both carbon fixation (RuBisCO) and utilization of sugars and organic acids (acetate, lactate, and formate). In silico stoichiometric metabolic models further demonstrated the potential for growth using sugars and organic acids. Metatranscriptomes showed a high expression of genes for iron oxidation; aerobic respiration; and utilization of lactate, acetate, and sugars, as well as RuBisCO, supporting mixotrophic growth in the environment. In summary, our results suggest that L. ochracea has substantial metabolic flexibility. It is adapted to iron-rich, organic carbon-containing wetland niches, where it can thrive as a mixotrophic iron oxidizer by utilizing both iron oxidation and organics for energy generation and both inorganic and organic carbon for cell and sheath production. IMPORTANCE Winogradsky's observations of L. ochracea led him to propose autotrophic iron oxidation as a new microbial metabolism, following his work on autotrophic sulfur-oxidizers. While much culture-based research has ensued, isolation proved elusive, so most work on L. ochracea has been based in the environment and in microcosms. Meanwhile, the autotrophic Gallionella became the model for freshwater microbial iron oxidation, while heterotrophic and mixotrophic iron oxidation is not well-studied. Ecological studies have shown that Leptothrix overtakes Gallionella when dissolved organic carbon content increases, demonstrating distinct niches. This study presents the first near-complete genomes of L. ochracea , which share some features with autotrophic iron oxidizers, while also incorporating heterotrophic metabolisms. These genome, metabolic modeling, and transcriptome results give us a detailed metabolic picture of how the organism may combine lithoautotrophy with organoheterotrophy to promote Fe oxidation and C cycling and drive many biogeochemical processes resulting from microbial growth and iron oxyhydroxide formation in wetlands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Changing Winds on the Mauna Loa CO 2 Seasonal Cycle in Relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Abstract Long‐term measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) show that the CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) increased from 1959 to 2019 at an overall rate of 0.22 0.034 ppm decade −1 while also varying on interannual to decadal time scales. These SCA changes are a signature of changes in land ecological CO 2 fluxes as well as shifting winds. Simulations with the TM3 tracer transport model and CO 2 fluxes from the Jena CarboScope CO 2 Inversion suggest that shifting winds alone have contributed to a decrease in SCA of −0.10 0.022 ppm decade −1 from 1959 to 2019, partly offsetting the observed long‐term SCA increase associated with enhanced ecosystem net primary production. According to these simulations and MIROC‐ACTM simulations, the shorter‐term variability of MLO SCA is nearly equally driven by varying ecological CO 2 fluxes (49%) and varying winds (51%). We also show that the MLO SCA is strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to varying winds, as well as with a closely related wind index (U‐PDO). Since 1980, 44% of the wind‐driven SCA decrease has been tied to a secular trend in the U‐PDO, which is associated with a progressive weakening of westerly winds at 700 mbar over the central Pacific from 20°N to 40°N. Similar impacts of varying winds on the SCA are seen in simulations at other low‐latitude Pacific stations, illustrating the difficulty of constraining trend and variability of land CO 2 fluxes using observations from low latitudes due to the complexity of circulation changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transforming the study of organisms: Phenomic data models and knowledge bases

The rapidly decreasing cost of gene sequencing has resulted in a deluge of genomic data from across the tree of life; however, outside a few model organism databases, genomic data are limited in their scientific impact because they are not accompanied by computable phenomic data. The majority of phenomic data are contained in countless small, heterogeneous phenotypic data sets that are very difficult or impossible to integrate at scale because of variable formats, lack of digitization, and linguistic problems. One powerful solution is to represent phenotypic data using data models with precise, computable semantics, but adoption of semantic standards for representing phenotypic data has been slow, especially in biodiversity and ecology. Some phenotypic and trait data are available in a semantic language from knowledge bases, but these are often not interoperable. In this review, we will compare and contrast existing ontology and data models, focusing on nonhuman phenotypes and traits. We discuss barriers to integration of phenotypic data and make recommendations for developing an operationally useful, semantically interoperable phenotypic data ecosystem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD v1.0): numerical modeling of watershed hydrology with the finite volume method

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling is an essential strategy for understanding and predicting natural flows, particularly where observations are lacking in either space or time or where complex terrain leads to a disconnect in the characteristic time and space scales of overland and groundwater flow. However, significant difficulties remain for the development of efficient and extensible modeling systems that operate robustly across complex regions. This paper introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), an integrated, multiprocess, multiscale, flexible-time-step model, in which hydrologic processes are fully coupled using the finite volume method. SHUD integrates overland flow, snow accumulation/melt, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, groundwater flow, and river routing, thus allowing physical processes in general watersheds to be realistically captured. SHUD incorporates one-dimensional unsaturated flow, two-dimensional groundwater flow, and a fully connected river channel network with hillslopes supporting overland flow and baseflow. The paper introduces the design of SHUD, from the conceptual and mathematical description of hydrologic processes in a watershed to the model's computational structures. To demonstrate and validate the model performance, we employ three hydrologic experiments: the V-catchment experiment, Vauclin's experiment, and a model study of the Cache Creek Watershed in northern California. Ongoing applications of the SHUD model include hydrologic analyses of hillslope to regional scales (1 m2 to 106 km2), water resource and stormwater management, and interdisciplinary research for questions in limnology, agriculture, geochemistry, geomorphology, water quality, ecology, climate and land-use change. The strength of SHUD is its flexibility as a scientific and resource evaluation tool where modeling and simulation are required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm-season net CO 2 uptake outweighs cold-season emissions over Alaskan North Slope tundra under current and RCP8.5 climate

Abstract Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO 2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO 2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO 2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO 2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO 2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO 2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO 2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m −2 yr −1 ) than that of cold-season CO 2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m −2 yr −1 ) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO 2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m −2 yr −1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m −2 yr −1 ), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO 2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗