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NASA NTRS2012

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2019

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the largest natural climate perturbations, but few observational constraints exist on either the climate responses to eruptions or the properties (size, hemispheric aerosol distribution, etc.) of the eruptions themselves. Paleoclimate records are thus important sources of information on past eruptions, often through the measurement of oxygen isotopic ratios (𝛿18O) in natural archives. However, since many processes affect 𝛿18O, the dynamical interpretation of these records can be quite complex. Here we present results from new, isotope-enabled members of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, documenting eruption-induced 𝛿18O variations throughout the climate system. Eruptions create significant perturbations in the 𝛿18O of precipitation and soil moisture in central/eastern North America, via excitation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monsoon Asia and Australia also exhibit strong precipitation and soil 𝛿18O anomalies; in these cases, 𝛿18O may reflect changes to El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase following eruptions. Salinity and seawater 𝛿18O patterns demonstrate the importance of both local hydrologic shifts and the phasing of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation response, both along the equator and in the subtropics. In all cases, the responses are highly sensitive to eruption latitude, which points to the utility of isotopic records in constraining aerosol distribution patterns associated with past eruptions. This is most effective using precipitation 𝛿18O; all Southern eruptions and the majority (66%) of Northern eruptions can be correctly identified. This work thus serves as a starting point for new, quantitative uses of isotopic records for understanding volcanic impacts on climate.

Stevenson, S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Design, Evaluation and GCM-Performance of a New Parameterization for Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRas)

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) was developed with the aim of improving cloud-microphysics, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes convective, stratiform, and boundary-layer clouds. The convective clouds merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly time-scale, while the boundary-layer clouds do so instantly. The cloud condensate transforms into precipitation following the auto-conversion relations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, and diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully active cloud-microphysics throughout its life-cycle, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry. An evaluation of McRAS in a single column model (SCM) with the GATE Phase III data has shown that McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. An evaluation with the ARM-CART SCM data in a cloud model intercomparison exercise shows reasonable but not an outstanding accurate simulation. Such a discrepancy is common to almost all models and is related, in part, to the input data quality. McRAS was implemented in the GEOS II GCM. A 50 month integration that was initialized with the ECMWF analysis of observations for January 1, 1987 and forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice distribution and vegetation properties (biomes, and soils), with prognostic soil moisture, snow-cover, and hydrology showed a very realistic simulation of cloud process, incloud water and ice, and cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). The simulated ITCZ showed a realistic time-mean structure and seasonal cycle, while the simulated CRF showed sensitivity to vertical distribution of cloud water which can be easily altered by the choice of time constant and incloud critical cloud water amount regulators for auto-conversion. The CRF and its feedbacks also have a profound effect on the ITCZ. Even though somewhat weaker than observed, the McRAS-GCM simulation produces robust 30-60 day oscillations in the 200 hPa velocity potential. Two ensembles of 4-summer (July, August, September) simulations, one each for 1987 and 1988 show that the McRAS-GCM simulates realistic and statistically significant precipitation differences over India, Central America, and tropical Africa. Several seasonal simulations were performed with McRAS-GEOS II GCM for the summer (June-July- August) and winter (December-January-February) periods to determine how the simulated clouds and CRFs would be affected by: i) advection of clouds; ii) cloud top entrainment instability, iii) cloud water inhomogeneity correction, and (iv) cloud production and dissipation in different cloud-processes. The results show that each of these processes contributes to the simulated cloud-fraction and CRF.

Sud, Y. C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗

NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

DOE OSTI2023

Joint Geophysical and Numerical Insights of the Coupled Thermal‐Hydro‐Mechanical Processes During Heating in Salt

Abstract Salt offers an optimal medium for the permanent isolation of heat‐producing radioactive waste due to its impermeability, high thermal conductivity, and ability to close fractures through creep. A thorough understanding of the thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes, encompassing brine migration, is fundamental for secure radioactive waste disposal within salt formations. At the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), we conducted joint in situ geophysical monitoring experiments during active heating to investigate brine migration near excavations. This experiment incorporated electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) alongside high‐resolution fiber‐optic‐based distributed temperature sensing within a controlled heating experiment. Additionally, discrete element model (DEM) based numerical simulations were conducted to simulate THM processes during heating, providing a more mechanistic understanding of the coupled processes leading to the observed changes in geophysical measurements. During heating, resistivity shifts near the heater were reasonably explained by temperature effects. However, in more distant, cooler regions, the resistivity decrease exceeded predictions based solely on temperature. DEM simulations highlighted brine migration, propelled by pore pressure gradients, as the likely primary factor contributing to the additional resistivity decline beyond temperature effects. The comparison between the predicted ERT responses and observations was much improved when considering the effects of brine migration based on the DEM simulations. These geophysical and simulation findings shed light on brine migration in response to salt heating, enhancing our understanding of the coupled THM processes in salt for safe radioactive waste disposal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Remote Sensing and Modeling of Landslides: Detection, Monitoring and Risk Evaluation

Landslides are one of the most pervasive hazards in the world, resulting in more fatalities and economic damage than is generally recognized_ Occurring over an extensive range of lithologies, morphologies, hydrologies, and climates, mass movements can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall, seismicity, freeze/thaw processes, and antbropogertic activities, among other factors. The location, size, and timing of these processes are characteristically difficult to predict and assess because of their localized spatial scales, distribution, and complex interactions between rainfall infiltration, hydromechanical properties of the soil, and the underlying surface composition. However, the increased availability, accessibility, and resolution of remote sensing data offer a new opportunity to explore issues of landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk over a variety of spatial scales. This special issue presents a series of papers that investigate the sources, behavior, and impacts of different mass movement types using a diverse set of data sources and evaluation methodologies.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Snow Depth Datasets for Snodgrass Catchment, Colorado, Water Year 2022-2023

This data package presents snow depths data from distributed temperature probes at 18 locations near Snodgrass catchment, Colorado. These data show that snow melt-out dates are approximately one or two weeks later under evergreen forests compared to other vegetation types even at the same elevation. These data were collected to understand how snowmelt heterogeneity impacts headwater hydrology, including streamflow and groundwater levels. They were also used to compare with process-based model simulations of snow depth to evaluate whether the model accurately represents snowmelt dynamics and their effects on headwater hydrology. Snow_DTPs_locations.csv includes all probes locations and their associated elevation and vegetation types. Snow_Depth_Snodgrass_WY2022_2023.csv includes processed snow depths datasets for Water Year (WY) 2022 and 2023. This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. Several probes have recordings for WY 2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Water-management model in Florida from LANDSAT-1 data

A prototype data acquisition and dissemination network and its effectiveness in improving and/or solving hydrologic problems in southern Florida are evaluated. The network utilized LANDSAT MSS imagery and in situ monitoring by LANDSAT-DCS. Results show water level and rain fall measurements were collected and disseminated in less than two hours, a significant improvement over conventional methods which took up to two months. Improved network performance has also aided the development of water budgets and water distribution to the people, funa, and flora in the area. Imagery from LANDSAT was also found to enhance the utility of ground measurements.

Higer, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS1985

The albedo field and cloud radiative forcing produced by a general circulation model with internally generated cloud optics

A general circulation model (GCM) study is presented in which cloud radiative properties are computed from cloud liquid water content inferred from the GCM hydrological cycle. Model-generated and satellite albedos are in rough agreement. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing indicates that cloud albedo effects overcome cloud infrared opacity effects in most regions. Both computed and observed albedo of clouds decrease from low to high altitudes. The model with variable cloud optics produces significantly different regional albedos from the same one with fixed cloud optics, especially over the tropics. The cloud droplet size distribution also has a significant impact on the model albedos. The temperature of the tropical upper troposphere is somewhat sensitive to the microphysical characteristics of the model cirrus clouds.

Charlock, T. P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Space-Time Variations in Water Vapor as Observed by the UARS Microwave Limb Sounder

Water vapor in the upper troposphere has a significant impact on the climate system. Difficulties in making accurate global measurements have led to uncertainty in understanding water vapor's coupling to the hydrologic cycle in the lower troposphere and its role in radiative energy balance. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is able to retrieve water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere with good sensitivity and nearly global coverage. An analysis of these preliminary retrievals based on 3 years of observations shows the water vapor distribution to be similar to that measured by other techniques and to model results. The primary MLS water vapor measurements were made in the stratosphere, where this species acts as a conserved tracer under certain conditions. As is the case for the upper troposphere, most of the stratospheric discussion focuses on the time evolution of the zonal mean and zonally varying water vapor. Stratospheric results span a 19-month period and tropospheric results a 36-month period, both beginning in October of 1991. Comparisons with stratospheric model calculations show general agreement, with some differences in the amplitude and phase of long-term variations. At certain times and places, the evolution of water vapor distributions in the lower stratosphere suggests the presence of meridional transport.

Elson, Lee S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The Martian hydrologic cycle - Effects of CO2 mass flux on global water distribution

The Martian CO2 cycle, which includes the seasonal condensation and subsequent sublimation of up to 30 percent of the planet's atmosphere, produces meridional winds due to the consequent mass flux of CO2. These winds currently display strong seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries due to the large asymmetries in the distribution of insolation on Mars. It is proposed that asymmetric meridional advection of water vapor on the planet due to these CO2 condensation winds is capable of explaining the observed dessication of Mars' south polar region at the current time. A simple model for water vapor transport is used to verify this hypothesis and to speculate on the effects of changes in orbital parameters on the seasonal water cycle.

James, P. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗