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At least 289 records · Page 16
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NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗
NASA NTRS2012

Implementation and Testing of the First Prompt Search for Electromagnetic Counterparts to Gravitational Wave Transients

A transient astrophysical event observed in both gravitational wave (OW) and electromagnetic (EM) channels would yield rich scientific rewards. A first program initiating EM follow-ups to possible transient OW events has been developed and exercised by the LIGO and Virgo community in association with several partners. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the methods used to promptly identify and localize OW event candidates and to request images of targeted sky locations. Methods. During two observing periods (Dec 172009 to Jan 8 2010 and Sep 2 to Oct 20 2010), a low-latency analysis pipeline was used to identify OW event candidates and to reconstruct maps of possible sky locations. A catalog of nearby galaxies and Milky Way globular clusters was used to select the most promising sky positions to be imaged, and this directional information was delivered to EM observatories with time lags of about thirty minutes. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to evaluate the low-latency OW pipeline's ability to reconstruct source positions correctly. Results. For signals near the detection threshold, our low-latency algorithms often localized simulated GW burst signals to tens of square degrees, while neutron star/neutron star inspirals and neutron star/black hole inspirals were localized to a few hundred square degrees. Localization precision improves for moderately stronger signals. The correct sky location of signals well above threshold and originating from nearby galaxies may be observed with approx.50% or better probability with a few pointings of wide-field telescopes. Key words. gravitational waves - methods: observational

Camp, Jordan↗
NASA NTRS1985

New analysis of nuclear interaction observed by Mt. Kanbara emulsion chamber experiment

To date the analysis of the air cascade family has been performed using a full Monte Carlo simulation. It is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about the interaction mechanism by using only this kind of simulation. On the other hand, attempts to reproduce the original gamma ray at the interaction point, for example decascading, have also been made. This method makes it possible to observe the interaction directly and to analyze the data from various angles. All of these methods, however, assume a constant ER in the cascade shower, where E is energy and R is the distance from the center of the cascade shower. It is impossible to reproduce the exact interaction height and energy by these methods. A relative method in separating one cascade shower from others is adopted. This method makes it possible to estimate the interaction height and energy by using information about the lateral spread of the cascade shower.

Nanjo, H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Radiation modeling with direct simulation Monte Carlo

Improvements in the modeling of radiation in low density shock waves with direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are the subject of this study. A new scheme to determine the relaxation collision numbers for excitation of electronic states is proposed. This scheme attempts to move the DSMC programs toward a more detailed modeling of the physics and more reliance on available experimental data. The new method is compared with the current modeling technique and both techniques are compared with available data. The differences in the results are evaluated. The test case is based on an AVCO-Everett shock tube experiment, a 10-km/s standing shock wave in air at 0.1 Torr. The new method agrees with the available data as well as the results from the earlier scheme and is more easily extrapolated to different flow conditions.

Carlson, Ann B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Radiation Modeling with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Improvements in the modeling of radiation in low density shock waves with direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are the subject of this study. A new scheme to determine the relaxation collision numbers for excitation of electronic states is proposed. This scheme attempts to move the DSMC programs toward a more detailed modeling of the physics and more reliance on available rate data. The new method is compared with the current modeling technique and both techniques are compared with available experimental data. The differences in the results are evaluated. The test case is based on experimental measurements from the AVCO-Everett Research Laboratory electric arc-driven shock tube of a normal shock wave in air at 10 km/s and .1 Torr. The new method agrees with the available data as well as the results from the earlier scheme and is more easily extrapolated to di erent ow conditions.

Carlson, Ann B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Cassini-Huygens Aerodynamics with Comparison to Flight

An analysis has been performed on the aerodynamics of the Cassini spacecraft as it passed through the atmosphere of Titan with and without the Huygens probe attached. The free stream density of Titan s atmosphere was measured by two methods. However, these methods resulted in very different values of density, one result being 3-5 times higher than the other. In an attempt to understand the source of this discrepancy and verify the assumptions made by and the original engineering analysis performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), free molecular and direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) analyses were performed for two atmospheric passes. The drag coefficient was calculated using an area based on a Monte Carlo area determination program. Although the source of the discrepancy has not been determined, it has been confirmed that the original, simplified force-and-moment analysis performed by JPL produced results that were comparable to the high-fidelity DSMC analysis and that the source of the discrepancy lies elsewhere.

Liechty, Derek S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Solution of the radiative transfer theory problems by the Monte Carlo method

The Monte Carlo method is used for two types of problems. First, there are interpretation problems of optical observations from meteorological satellites in the short wave part of the spectrum. The sphericity of the atmosphere, the propagation function, and light polarization are considered. Second, problems dealt with the theory of spreading narrow light beams. Direct simulation of light scattering and the mathematical form of medium radiation model representation are discussed, and general integral transfer equations are calculated. The dependent tests method, derivative estimates, and solution to the inverse problem are also considered.

Marchuk, G. I.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Recommended Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Collision Model Parameters for Reacting Methane Flows

While hydrocarbon combustion and gas-surface interactions have been simulated for a variety of applications in continuum solvers, such processes have been rarely investigated in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC). Thus Variable Hard/Soft Sphere (VHS/VSS)collision parameters are not available for most molecules of interest in the decomposition of methane, a significant pyrolysis gas product and potential atmospheric species for Titan re-entries. As these properties are essential for accurate modeling of gas transport and thermochemical effects, a method must be devised to compute them for use in DSMC. In this study, the methodology outlined in Stephani et al is utilized to compute the VHS/VSS parameters by fitting the Ω(1,1)and Ω(2,2) collision integrals [1]. These collision integrals are typically computed from intermolecular potentials and are used in CFD simulations to calculate transport properties such as viscosity, thermal conductivity, and diffusion. This approach ensures consistency between micro-scale collisions and macro-scale transport properties. To produce the necessary collision integrals needed for the fitting routine, we utilize the method described by Laricchiuta et al, where collision integrals are computed based on the constituent particles’ polarizability and effective electron number [2].Preliminary computations of pure-species Ω(1,1)and Ω(2,2)collision integrals produced from the coupled approach of Stephani et al and Laricchiuta et al for methane show good agreement with those computed via available ab-initio Potential Energy Surface Computations, as seen in Figure 1. Above 300K, no more than 12% deviation is observed between the two results over the temperature range of the fitted PES data [3].Current results of this study include full collision-specificVSS transport properties for a complex-species mixture involving major byproducts of pure methane decomposition. Targeted final results will include a comprehensive list of VSS parameters relevant toDSMC simulations of Titan atmospheric entry, based on the reduced kinetic model of Savajano et al [4].

M R Gosma↗
NASA NTRS2022

Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (Life) I. Improved Exoplanet Detection Yield Estimates for A Large Mid-Infrared Space-Interferometer Mission

Context. One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale that can spatially separate the signals from exoplanets and their host stars and thus directly scrutinize the exoplanets and their atmospheres. Aims. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared (MIR) nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. We study the impact of various parameters and compare the performance with that of large single-aperture mission concepts detecting exoplanets in reflected light. Methods. We have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Results. An interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures working in the 4–18.5 μ.m wavelength range with a total instrument throughput of 5% could detect up to ≈550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R ⊕ with an integrated S/N ≥ 7. At least ≈160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R ⊕ . Depending on the observing scenario, ≈25–45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ ) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four 3.5 m apertures, the total number of detections can increase to up to ≈770, including ≈60–80 rocky eHZ planets. With four times 1 m apertures, the maximum detection yield is ≈315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky eHZ planets. The vast majority of small, temperate exoplanets are detected around M dwarfs. The impact of changing the wavelength range to 3–20 μm or 6–17 μm on the detection yield is negligible. Conclusions. A large space-based MIR nulling interferometer will be able to directly detect hundreds of small, nearby exoplanets, tens of which would be habitable world candidates. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. Given that we assumed only 2.5 years for the search phase, a significant sub-set of the detected exoplanets can be followed-up in a second mission phase to obtain high SNR thermal emission spectra, leveraging the superior diagnostic power of the MIR wavelength regime compared to shorter wavelengths.

planets and satellites: terrestrial planets↗
NASA NTRS1992

Robust rendezvous maneuver point conditions

This study develops rendezvous maneuver point conditions that are robust to one dimensional errors in state estimation and burn execution. Allowing small deviations in the time of intercept provides a degree of freedom that can be used to compensate for these errors. The direction of allowable burn deviation is developed for errors in state estimation and burn execution. The maneuver points for which the error is aligned with the insensitive direction provide excellent rendezvous initiation points. The method is applied to sample rendezvous for vehicles in circular and elliptic orbits. Robust maneuver points are selected and the vehicles' relative motion plotted, demonstrating the validity of the maneuver points. Finally, a graphical illustration of the error focusing effect is demonstrated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation.

Fogle, Debra Ann↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Radiation Chemistry Code Based on the Green's Function of the Diffusion Equation

Stochastic radiation track structure codes are of great interest for space radiation studies and hadron therapy in medicine. These codes are used for a many purposes, notably for microdosimetry and DNA damage studies. In the last two decades, they were also used with the Independent Reaction Times (IRT) method in the simulation of chemical reactions, to calculate the yield of various radiolytic species produced during the radiolysis of water and in chemical dosimeters. Recently, we have developed a Green's function based code to simulate reversible chemical reactions with an intermediate state, which yielded results in excellent agreement with those obtained by using the IRT method. This code was also used to simulate and the interaction of particles with membrane receptors. We are in the process of including this program for use with the Monte‐Carlo track structure code Relativistic Ion Tracks (RITRACKS). This recent addition should greatly expand the capabilities of RITRACKS, notably to simulate DNA damage by both the direct and indirect effect.

Plante, Ianik↗
NASA NTRS2002

TIES for Dummies 3rd Edition (Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection) Basic how to's to implement the TIES method

The TIES method is a forecasting environment whereby the decision-maker has the ability to easily assess and trade-off the impact of various technologies without sophisticated and time-consuming mathematical formulations. TIES provides a methodical approach where technically feasible alternatives can be identified with accuracy and speed to reduce design cycle time, and subsequently, life cycle costs, and was achieved through the use of various probabilistic methods, such as Response Surface Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations. Furthermore, structured and systematic techniques are utilized from other fields to identify possible concepts and evaluation criteria by which comparisons can be made. This objective is achieved by employing the use of Morphological Matrices and Multi-Attribute Decision Making techniques. Through the execution of each step, a family of design alternatives for a given set of customer requirements can be identified and assessed subjectively or objectively. This methodology allows for more information (knowledge) to be brought into the earlier phases of the design process and will have direct implications on the affordability of the system. The increased knowledge allows for optimum allocation of company resources and quantitative justification for program decisions. Finally, the TIES method provided novel results and quantitative justification to facilitate decision making in the early stages of design so as to produce affordable and quality products.

Kirby, Michelle R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Inverse Compton Scattering in Mildly Relativistic Plasma

We investigated the effect of inverse Compton scattering in mildly relativistic static and moving plasmas with low optical depth using Monte Carlo simulations, and calculated the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in the cosmic background radiation. Our semi-analytic method is based on a separation of photon diffusion in frequency and real space. We use Monte Carlo simulation to derive the intensity and frequency of the scattered photons for a monochromatic incoming radiation. The outgoing spectrum is determined by integrating over the spectrum of the incoming radiation using the intensity to determine the correct weight. This method makes it possible to study the emerging radiation as a function of frequency and direction. As a first application we have studied the effects of finite optical depth and gas infall on the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (not possible with the extended Kompaneets equation) and discuss the parameter range in which the Boltzmann equation and its expansions can be used. For high temperature clusters (k(sub B)T(sub e) greater than or approximately equal to 15 keV) relativistic corrections based on a fifth order expansion of the extended Kompaneets equation seriously underestimate the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect at high frequencies. The contribution from plasma infall is less important for reasonable velocities. We give a convenient analytical expression for the dependence of the cross-over frequency on temperature, optical depth, and gas infall speed. Optical depth effects are often more important than relativistic corrections, and should be taken into account for high-precision work, but are smaller than the typical kinematic effect from cluster radial velocities.

Molnar, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Discrete range clustering using Monte Carlo methods

For automatic obstacle avoidance guidance during rotorcraft low altitude flight, a reliable model of the nearby environment is needed. Such a model may be constructed by applying surface fitting techniques to the dense range map obtained by active sensing using radars. However, for covertness, passive sensing techniques using electro-optic sensors are desirable. As opposed to the dense range map obtained via active sensing, passive sensing algorithms produce reliable range at sparse locations, and therefore, surface fitting techniques to fill the gaps in the range measurement are not directly applicable. Both for automatic guidance and as a display for aiding the pilot, these discrete ranges need to be grouped into sets which correspond to objects in the nearby environment. The focus of this paper is on using Monte Carlo methods for clustering range points into meaningful groups. One of the aims of the paper is to explore whether simulated annealing methods offer significant advantage over the basic Monte Carlo method for this class of problems. We compare three different approaches and present application results of these algorithms to a laboratory image sequence and a helicopter flight sequence.

Chatterji, G. B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Study of Rarefied Hypersonic Flow Interacting with a Continuum Jet

An uncoupled Computational Fluid Dynamics-Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (CFD-DSMC) technique is developed and applied to provide solutions for continuum jets interacting with rarefied external flows. The technique is based on a correlation of the appropriate Bird breakdown parameter for a transitional-rarefied condition that defines a surface within which the continuum solution is unaffected by the external flow-jet interaction. The method is applied to two problems to assess and demonstrate its validity; one of a jet interaction in the transitional-rarefied flow regime and the other in the moderately rarefied regime. Results show that the appropriate Bird breakdown surface for uncoupling the continuum and non-continuum solutions is a function of a non-dimensional parameter relating the momentum flux and collisionality between the two interacting flows. The correlation is exploited for the simulation of a jet interaction modeled for an experimental condition in the transitional-rarefied flow regime and the validity of the correlation is demonstrated. The uncoupled technique is also applied to an aerobraking flight condition for the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft with attitude control system jet interaction. Aerodynamic yawing moment coefficients for cases without and with jet interaction at various angles-of-attack were predicted, and results from the present method compare well with values published previously. The flow field and surface properties are analyzed in some detail to describe the mechanism by which the jet interaction affects the aerodynamics.

Glass, Christopher E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

LES, DNS and RANS for the analysis of high-speed turbulent reacting flows

The purpose of this research is to continue our efforts in advancing the state of knowledge in large eddy simulation (LES), direct numerical simulation (DNS), and Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) methods for the computational analysis of high-speed reacting turbulent flows. In the second phase of this work, covering the period 1 Aug. 1994 - 31 Jul. 1995, we have focused our efforts on two programs: (1) developments of explicit algebraic moment closures for statistical descriptions of compressible reacting flows and (2) development of Monte Carlo numerical methods for LES of chemically reacting flows.

Adumitroaie, V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Parallelizing Timed Petri Net simulations

The possibility of using parallel processing to accelerate the simulation of Timed Petri Nets (TPN's) was studied. It was recognized that complex system development tools often transform system descriptions into TPN's or TPN-like models, which are then simulated to obtain information about system behavior. Viewed this way, it was important that the parallelization of TPN's be as automatic as possible, to admit the possibility of the parallelization being embedded in the system design tool. Later years of the grant were devoted to examining the problem of joint performance and reliability analysis, to explore whether both types of analysis could be accomplished within a single framework. In this final report, the results of our studies are summarized. We believe that the problem of parallelizing TPN's automatically for MIMD architectures has been almost completely solved for a large and important class of problems. Our initial investigations into joint performance/reliability analysis are two-fold; it was shown that Monte Carlo simulation, with importance sampling, offers promise of joint analysis in the context of a single tool, and methods for the parallel simulation of general Continuous Time Markov Chains, a model framework within which joint performance/reliability models can be cast, were developed. However, very much more work is needed to determine the scope and generality of these approaches. The results obtained in our two studies, future directions for this type of work, and a list of publications are included.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Simulations of particle acceleration in parallel shocks: Direct comparison between Monte Carlo and one-dimensional hybrid codes

We have made a direct comparison between two different computer simulations of a plane, parallel, collisionless shock including particle acceleration to energies typical of those of diffuse ions observed at the earth bow shock. Despite the fact that the one-dimensional hybrid and Monte Carlo techniques employ entirely different algorithms, they give surprisingly close agreement in the overall shapes of the complete distribution functions for protons as well as heavier ions. Both methods show that energetic ions emerge smoothly from the background thermal plasma with approximately the same relative injection rate and that the fraction of the incoming plasma's energy flux that is converted into downstream enthalpy flux of the accelerated population (i.e., the acceleration efficiency) is similar in the two cases. The fraction of the downstream proton distribution made up of superthermal particles is quite large, with at least 10% of the energy flux going into protons with energies above 10 keV. In addition, an upstream precursor, produced by backstreaming energetic particles, is present in both shocks, although the Monte Carlo precursor is considerably longer than that produced in the hybrid shock. These results offer convincing evidence that, at least in these ways, the two simulations are consistent in their description of parallel shock structure and particle acceleration, and they lay the groundwork for development of shock models employing a combination of both methods.

Ellison, Donald C.↗