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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian Inversion of Seismic and Electromagnetic Data for Marine Gas Reservoir Characterization Using Multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling

In this study we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) and controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Adaptive Metropolis (AM) samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and CSEM data. The multi-chain MCMC is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach is used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic AVA and CSEM joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic AVA-only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated – reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moving Beyond Direct Load Control: A Maturity Model for Realizing the Promise of Demand Flexibility

This report discusses a new maturity model that regulators and utilities can use to guide and expand demand flexibility programs and enable the resources to provide more grid services. The model has six demand flexibility categories: planning and design; customer engagement; program operations; evaluation, measurement and verification; distributed energy resource orchestration; and data infrastructure. Within each category, capabilities are identified and described on a maturity scale that ranges from performing below expectations to improving on best practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility and reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1982

Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices

The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1983

A multi-item maintenance center inventory model for low-demand reparable items

In many military and commercial contexts, complex equipment undergoes scheduled maintenance overhauls at regular intervals during which all failed components are replaced. Failure to have replacements on hand for all failed parts requires emergency measures at premium cost. When reparable parts are highly reliable and expensive, both holding and shortage costs are high. This model determines the reparable parts inventory for a maintenance center under three alternative criteria: (1) maximizing job-completion rate subject to constraint on total holding costs, (2) minimizing total holding costs plus expected job noncompletion costs, and (3) minimizing total holding costs subject to a required minimum job-completion rate. Exact solutions may be obtained using dynamic programming. Approximate solutions, found easily by marginal analysis, have readily computed bounds on possible error. The solution methods for the three formulations are illustrated in a simple example.

Schaefer, M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Structural Analysis Results of Thermal, Operating and Seismic Analysis for Hanford Single-Shell Tank Integrity - 12261

Since Hanford's 149 Single-Shell Tanks (SSTs) are well beyond their design life, the U.S. Department of Energy has commissioned a state of the art engineering analysis to assess the structural integrity of the tanks to ensure that they are fit for service during the cleanup and closure phase. The structural integrity analysis has several challenging factors. There are four different tank sizes in various configurations that require analysis. Within each tank type there are different waste level and temperature histories, soil overburden depths, tank floor arrangements, riser sizes and locations, and other on-tank structures that need to be addressed. Furthermore, soil properties vary throughout the tank farms. This paper describes the structural integrity analysis that was performed for the SSTs using finite element models that incorporate the detailed design features of each tank type. The analysis was performed with two different models: an ANSYS static model for the Thermal and Operating Loads Analysis, and an ANSYS dynamic model for the seismic analysis. The TOLA analyses simulate the waste level and thermal history and it included a matrix of analysis cases that bounded the material property uncertainties. The TOLA also predicts the occurrence of concrete thermal degradations and cracking, reinforcement yielding, and soil plasticity. The seismic analysis matrix included uncertainty in waste properties, waste height and the soil modulus. In seismic analysis the tank concrete was modeled as a linear elastic material that was adjusted for the present day degraded conditions. Also, the soil was treated as a linear elastic material while special modeling techniques were used to avoid soil arching and achieve proper soil pressure on the tank walls. Seismic time histories in both the horizontal and vertical directions were applied to the seismic model. Structural demands from both Thermal and Operating Loads Analysis and seismic models were extracted in the form of section forces and moments for sections throughout the tank under the appropriate load combinations. These demands were evaluated against the American Concrete Institute (ACI) code requirements for nuclear safety-related concrete structures as defined in ACI-349-06. Structural integrity analysis of Hanford's Type II and Type III Single-Shell Tanks (SSTs) was performed using finite element models (ANSYS software) that incorporate the detailed design features of each tank type. The analysis was performed with two different models: a static model for the Thermal and Operating Loads Analysis, and a dynamic model for the seismic analysis. Structural demands from both Thermal and Operating Loads Analysis and seismic models were evaluated against the American Concrete Institute (ACI) code requirements for nuclear safety-related concrete structures as defined in ACI-349-06. The ratio of demand to capacity (D/C) was reported as a measure of structural integrity for the applicable ACI-349-06 load combinations. Although the Type II and Type III analysis matrix showed varying demands depending on the material combinations, all of the tank regions that are critical to structural stability passed the ACI 349-06 acceptance criteria. This was true for the conservative combination of maximum recorded thermal loads and maximum soil overburden depth combined with the analysis matrix of bounding material property combinations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

ModBase, a database of annotated comparative protein structure models and associated resources

ModBase (http://salilab.org/modbase) is a database of annotated comparative protein structure models. The models are calculated by ModPipe, an automated modeling pipeline that relies primarily on Modeller for fold assignment, sequence-structure alignment, model building and model assessment (http://salilab.org/modeller/). ModBase currently contains almost 30 million reliable models for domains in 4.7 million unique protein sequences. ModBase allows users to compute or update comparative models on demand, through an interface to the ModWeb modeling server (http://salilab.org/ modweb). ModBase models are also available through the Protein Model Portal (http://www.prote inmodelportal.org/). Recently developed associated resources include the AllosMod server for modeling ligand-induced protein dynamics (http://salilab.org/ allosmod), the AllosMod-FoXS server for predicting a structural ensemble that fits an SAXS profile (http://salilab.org/allosmod-foxs), the FoXSDock server for protein–protein docking filtered by an SAXS profile (http://salilab.org/foxsdock), the SAXS Merge server for automatic merging of SAXS profiles (http://salilab.org/saxsmerge) and the Pose & Rank server for scoring protein–ligand complexes (http://salilab.org/poseandrank). In this update, we also highlight two applications of ModBase: a PSI:Biology initiative to maximize the structural coverage of the human alpha-helical transmembrane proteome and a determination of structural determinants of human immunodeficiency virus-1 protease specificity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open Power System Datasets and Open Simulation Engines: A Survey Toward Machine Learning Applications

A major factor behind the success of machine learning (ML) models in multiple domains is the availability and accessibility of large, labeled, and well-organized datasets for training and benchmarking. In comparison, power grid datasets face three major challenges: (i) real-world data is often restricted by regulatory constraints, privacy reasons, or security concerns, making it difficult to obtain and work with; (ii) synthetic datasets, which are created to address these limitations, often have incomplete information and are released using specialized tools, making them inaccessible to the broader community; and, (iii) input-output datasets are difficult to generate through simulation for non-experts because open-source simulators are not known outside the power system community. This survey addresses these challenges by serving as an entry point to publicly available datasets and simulators for researchers venturing in this area. We review the current landscape of open-source power network data, machine models, consumer demand profiles, renewable generation data, and inverter models. We also examine open-source power system simulators, which are crucial for generating high-quality, high-fidelity power grid datasets. We aim to provide a foundation for overcoming data scarcity and advance towards a structured web of datasets and simulators to support the development of ML for power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding activity engagement across weekdays and weekend days: A multivariate multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach

This paper is motivated by the increasing recognition that modeling activity-travel demand for a single day of the week, as is done in virtually all travel forecasting models, may be inadequate in capturing underlying processes that govern activity-travel scheduling behavior. The considerable variability in daily travel suggests that there are important complementary relationships and competing tradeoffs involved in scheduling and allocating time to various activities across days of the week. Both limited survey data availability and methodological challenges in modeling week-long activity-travel schedules have precluded the development of multi-day activity-travel demand models. With passive and technology-based data collection methods increasingly in vogue, the collection of multi-day travel data may become increasingly commonplace in the years ahead. This paper addresses the methodological challenge associated with modeling multi-day activity-travel demand by formulating a multivariate multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) model system. The comprehensive framework ties together two MDCP model components, one corresponding to weekday time allocation and the other to weekend activity-time allocation. By tying the two MDCP components together, the model system also captures relationships in activity-time allocation between weekdays on the one hand and weekend days on the other. Model estimation on a week-long travel diary data set from the United Kingdom shows that there are significant inter-relationships between weekdays and weekend days in activity-travel scheduling behavior. In conclusion, the model system presented in this paper may serve as a higher-level multi-day activity scheduler in conjunction with existing daily activity-based travel models.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Agricultural Irrigation Demand Response Estimation Tool

This program is used to model the energy demand of agricultural irrigation pumps, used to maintain soil moisture levels in irrigated fields. This modeling is accomplished using historical data from evapotranspirationmeasuring weather stations (from the California Irrigation Management Information System) as well as irrigation system characteristics for the field(s) to be modeled. The modelled energy demand is used to estimate the achievable demand response (DR) potential of the field(s), for use in assessing the value of the DR for the utility company. The program can accept input data with varying degrees of rigor, and estimate the uncertainty of the output accordingly.

Olsen, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Response of Cyclic Electron Flow around Photosystem I to Changes in Photorespiration and Nitrate Assimilation

Photosynthesis captures light energy to produce ATP and NADPH. These molecules are consumed in the conversion of CO 2 to sugar, photorespiration, and NO 3 - assimilation. The production and consumption of ATP and NADPH must be balanced to prevent photoinhibition or photodamage. This balancing may occur via cyclic electron flow around photosystem I (CEF), which increases ATP/NADPH production during photosynthetic electron transport; however, it is not clear under what conditions CEF changes with ATP/NADPH demand. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and dark interval relaxation kinetics were used to determine the contribution of CEF in balancing ATP/NADPH in hydroponically grown Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) supplied different forms of nitrogen (nitrate versus ammonium) under changes in atmospheric CO 2 and oxygen.Measurements of CEF were made under low and high light and compared with ATP/NADPH demand estimated from CO 2 gas exchange. Under low light, contributions of CEF did not shift despite an up to 17% change in modeled ATP/NADPH demand. Under high light, CEF increased under photorespiratory conditions (high oxygen and low CO 2 ), consistent with a primary role in energy balancing. However, nitrogen form had little impact on rates of CEF under high or low light. Finally, we conclude that, according to modeled ATP/ NADPH demand, CEF responded to energy demand under high light but not low light. These findings suggest that other mechanisms, such as the malate valve and the Mehler reaction, were able to maintain energy balance when electron flow was low but that CEF was required under higher flow.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Prediction under Changed Demand Conditions: Robust Machine Learning Models and Input Feature Combinations

Deciding on a suitable algorithm for energy demand prediction in a building is non-trivial and depends on the availability of data. In this paper we compare four machine learning models, commonly found in the literature, in terms of their generalization performance and in terms of how using different sets of input features affects accuracy. This is tested on a data set where consumption patterns differ significantly between training and evaluation because of the Covid-19 pandemic. We provide a hands-on guide and supply a Python framework for building operators to adapt and use in their applications.

Schranz, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗