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Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗

A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.

mapping↗

Ecological Forecasting Project Management with Examples

Once scientists publish results of their projects and studies, all too often they end up on the shelf and are not otherwise used. The NASA Earth Science Division established its Applied Sciences Program (ASP) to apply research findings to help solve and manage real-world problems and needs. ASP-funded projects generally produce decision support systems for operational applications which are expected to last beyond the end of the NASA funding. Because of NASAs unique perspective of looking down on the Earth from space, ASP studies involve the use of remotely sensed information consisting of satellite data and imagery as well as information from sub-orbital platforms. ASP regularly solicits Earth science proposals that address one or more focus areas; disasters mitigation, ecological forecasting, health and air quality, and water resources. Reporting requirements for ASP-funded projects are different from those typical for research grants from NASA and other granting agencies, requiring management approaches different from other programs. This presentation will address the foregoing in some detail and give examples of three ASP-funded ecological forecasting projects that include: 1) the detection and survey of chimpanzee habitat in Africa from space, 2) harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the California Current System affecting aquaculture facilities and marine mammal populations, and 3) a call for the public to identify North America wildlife in Wisconsin using trail camera photos. Contact information to propose to ASP solicitations for those PIs interested is also provided.

Management↗

Space Technology - Game Changing Development NASA Facts: Autonomous Medical Operations

The AMO (Autonomous Medical Operations) Project is working extensively to train medical models on the reliability and confidence of computer-aided interpretation of ultrasound images in various clinical settings, and of various anatomical structures. AI (Artificial Intelligence) algorithms recognize and classify features in the ultrasound images, and these are compared to those features that clinicians use to diagnose diseases. The acquisition of clinically validated image assessment and the use of the AI algorithms constitutes fundamental baseline for a Medical Decision Support System that will advise crew on long-duration, remote missions.

Autonomous Medical Operations Project↗

Clinical Decision Support Software: Modeling and Capabilities

With its distance from Earth and communication delays, exploration space flight will place new demands for crew autonomy. Crewmembers operating during such missions require a dedicated Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) that enhances their earth independence by augmenting their knowledge, skills, and abilities in different medical scenarios. A CDSS is a software application that must function optimally in diverse and varied scenarios (while interfacing with and providing actionable information to appropriate vehicle systems) to augment crew performance by enhancing or adding knowledge, skills, and abilities that preserve health and wellness and ultimately helping to ensure mission success. In addition, the software tool should provide various functions and computational models to meet the demands of astronauts beyond low earth orbit.

B Russell↗

Mangrove Carbon Stocks in Pongara National Park, Gabon

Mangroves are recognized for their valued ecosystem services to coastal areas, and the functional linkages between those services and ecosystem carbon stocks have been established. However, spatially explicit inventories are necessary to facilitate management and protection of mangroves, as well as providing a foundation for payment for ecosystem service programs such as REDD+. We conducted an inventory of carbon stocks in mangroves within Pongara National Park (PNP), Gabon using a stratified random sampling design based on forest canopy height derived from TanDEM-X remote sensing data. Ecosystem carbon pools, including aboveground and belowground biomass and necromass, and soil carbon to a depth of 2 m were assessed using measurements and samples from plots distributed among three canopy height classes within the park. There were two mangrove species within the inventory area in PNP, Rhizophora racemosa and R. harrisonii. R. harrisonii was predominant in the sparse, low-stature stands that dominated the west side of the park. In the east side of the park, both species occurred in tall-stature stands, with tree height often exceeding 30 m. Canopy height was an effective means to stratify the inventory area, as biomass was significantly different among the height classes. Despite those differences in aboveground biomass, the soil carbon density was not significantly different among height classes. Soils were the main component of the ecosystem carbon stock, accounting for over 84% of the total. The ecosystem carbon density ranged from 644 to 943 Mg C ha−1 among the three height classes. The ecosystem carbon stock within PNP is estimated to be 40,588 Gg C. The combination of pre-inventory information about stand conditions and their spatial distribution within the assessment area obtained from remote sensing data and a spatial decision support system were fundamental to implementing this relatively large-scale field inventory. This work exemplifies how mangrove carbon stocks can be quantified to augment national C reporting statistics, provide a baseline for projects involving monitoring, reporting and verification (i.e., MRV), and provide data on the forest composition and structure for sustainable management and conservation practices.

Carl C Trettin↗

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Medical Diagnosis and Treatment During Space Exploration Missions

From May 8th to June 9th, 2023, I had the opportunity to participate in an experiential learning experience at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX with Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC), an element of the NASA Human Research Program. During this research experience, I was not only able to work on the above titled research project, but also gain an immense exposure to the field of aerospace medicine, make numerous connections within the field, tour NASA facilities, as well as travel to the Aerospace Medical Association Annual Conference (AsMA) in New Orleans. To briefly introduce my project, it is well understood that the medical capabilities available to crew medical officers (CMOs) on the International Space Station will be different than the capabilities available and needed during deep space exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Ground support is particularly limited due to distance, communication delays (or lack of communication), and lack of resupply. Therefore, to support medical care by CMOs on these missions, robust clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) must be designed. The recent publication and public launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based upon large language models (LLM) such as ChatGPT provides the opportunity to create a smart assistant for onboard triage, diagnosis, and treatment of medical conditions. Ultimately, the overall purpose of the project was to research what AI tools currently exist or are in development, and to see how they might be implemented onboard during exploration class spaceflights of the future. The ExMC element is actively developing several tools to be used in preparation for and during deep space exploration missions. One of those tools, known as IMPACT, is a probabilistic risk assessment model which can be used to propose a desired medical system (based on mass and volume) and suggest the clinical outcomes likely to occur for a design reference mission (DRM). The group recently presented the IMPACT model and a DRM of interest titled “Modified Long Duration Lunar Orbital and Lunar Surface” (mLDLOLS) at the recent AsMA conference. The mLDLOLS mock mission is a 9 month and 6-day deep space exploration mission consisting of time in Moon’s orbit (3 months on the Gateway space station), on the lunar surface (3 months within habitat), and another 3 months on Gateway before return to Earth. For this DRM, IMPACT ultimately outlined a preferred medical system that was then associated with medical conditions considered to be most likely based on frequency, most likely to cause astronaut task time loss (TTL), most likely to cause return to definitive care (RTDC), and most likely cause loss of crew life (LOCL). IMPACT also highlighted the medical capabilities/skills that would be required to care for those medical conditions, such as performing a history of present illness or musculoskeletal exam with ultrasound. The primary objective of the project was to perform a survey of the AI tools and systems applicable to the conditions outlined for the proposed mLDLOLS mission. Using PubMed (including most relevant MeSH terms) and Google Scholar, we then created a robust annotated bibliography organized by condition. The 56-page and over 500 reference annotated bibliography was subsequently used to create a review outline that would become the basis for drafting of a future publication. For the review outline, we took those medical conditions researched within the annotated bibliography (condition-based approach) and deployed a systems-based approach, combining those medical conditions and related tools into ten categories. These categories included general/all-purpose CDSSs, tools to diagnose or manage respiratory, dermatologic, neurologic, auditory and vestibular, ophthalmic, musculoskeletal, infection-associated, and gynecologic conditions, as well as tools that could be deployed in the setting of trauma/emergency. With the completion of the 30-page outline, we then began drafting the review paper. To conclude the research experience, I presented the findings from our survey to the ExMC Clinical and Science team. With these objectives, I ultimately learned about the number of AI tools that exist today to assist medical professionals with the triage, diagnosis, and management of several medical conditions. These tools can span from chatbot assistants to help triage knee pain to vision transformer models that can identify ophthalmic conditions based on ocular surface images captured with a cell phone. We also highlighted the current gaps that exist in the literature alongside the advancements that are needed to make the desired CDSS for deep space exploration missions. With this experience, I certainly confirmed an existing career goal and identified several additional skills needed to become an aerospace medical doctor including knowledge of critical care in an extreme medicine setting, aerospace engineering and human integration systems, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and risk models. I also identified numerous transferable skills for this career goal including the basic knowledge of medicine (MD), deployment of the scientific method for critical thought about new scientific questions (PhD), review of published literature, including creating an annotated bibliography (PhD), as well as detailed scientific writing (PhD). The results of my research will likely guide the design of an all-encompassing onboard medical assistant for use during deep space exploration missions of the future. I plan on sharing the outcomes from this experience with my peers at a student seminar in the Fall semester on August 30th. During the seminar, I will detail the project, my experience at NASA and AsMA, as well as offer best practice guidelines for students entertaining similar experiences or careers. In conclusion, I would like to thank the WVU School of Medicine, Research and Graduate Education office, as well as NASA ExMC for the unwavering support of this life-changing experience.

Ryan A. Lacinski↗

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Medical Diagnosis and Treatment During Space Exploration Missions

BACKGROUND The medical capabilities necessary for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will differ tremendously from those currently available to crew medical officers (CMOs) on the International Space Station (ISS). Ground support will be more challenging due to distance-related communication delays and data transmission, and resource utilization must be optimized given limited ability for resupply. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) can help mitigate these limitations. The recent launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based upon large language models (LLM) support the creation of a smart assistant for onboard triage, diagnosis, and guided treatment of medical conditions during these missions. The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool can help predict which clinical problems and outcomes are likely to occur for a design reference mission (DRM) and assist Medical Operations and systems engineering teams in creating a medical system that may optimally mitigate the predicted risks. The purpose of this study was to identify AI tools currently available or in development for the assistive diagnosis and care of medical conditions predicted for an extended duration Lunar mission. METHODS The 119 medical conditions currently built into the IMPACT suite were categorized into systems, and these diagnoses were used as keywords for our literature search. Using PubMed and Google Scholar, we performed a literature survey of AI tools applicable to these conditions. Article inclusion criteria included publication between the years 2017-2023, as the sentinel paper discussing the “selective attention” driving ChatGPT and other generative transformer models was published in June 2017. Where applicable, we reviewed only the top 1000 research articles (based on relevance) for each of the keywords/phrases. AI tools whose training sets were exclusive to a pediatric patient population were excluded. We also excluded any medical diagnostic tools (such as CT, MRI, mass spectrometry) or procedures (such as endoscopy, surgery) that are unlikely to be available during LDEMs due to mass and volume constraints, CMO knowledge, skills, and abilities, and/or inherent procedural risks. RESULTS Our survey highlighted several AI-driven tools for the triage, diagnosis, and management of those medical conditions highlighted by IMPACT. Selected publications for each medical condition were then screened for inclusion within ten systems-based categories including: general diagnostic tools (25), tools to diagnose and manage respiratory (40), dermatologic (34), neurologic (28), auditory and vestibular (30), ophthalmic (34), musculoskeletal (104), infection-associated (92), and gynecologic (19) conditions, as well as tools that could be deployed in the setting of trauma and emergency (34). CONCLUSIONS Numerous AI-driven tools were highlighted within this literature survey, ranging from chatbot assistants that triage knee pain to vision transformer models for diagnosis of ophthalmic conditions using ocular surface images captured with a mobile phone. Remaining challenges include optimizing connectivity and integration of existing and developing systems into the vehicles or habitats. Notably, findings from this survey could help guide the initial design of an all-encompassing, onboard medical AI assistant for use during future LDEMs.

R A Lacinski↗

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite as it nears its System Acceptance Review (SAR). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY23. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedule.

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

System Engineers and Decisions: It?s All about Knowledge

In order to guarantee that a system meets adequate levels of reliability and availability, system performances are continuously monitored and analyzed thanks to the technological advancements driving the Industry 4.0 revolution. An Industry 4.0 approach is typically based on advanced statistical, big data mining, machine learning, and internet-of-things methods designed to detect anomalies in the behavior of system, detect the most likely failure modes, and provide indications to system engineers on when maintenance activities should be performed before system performance are deemed unacceptable (which can be generated by diagnostic and prognostic methods). However, these analyses, which are designed to automatize and increase the efficacy of the system maintenance program, require large amount of data which can come in various forms: numeric, textual, images, sounds etc. Such data constitutes the historic knowledge benchmark to track system performances and support system engineer decisions. Here we claim that data is not sufficient to support this kind of analyses when applied to systems characterized by complex architectures and behaviors. Robust system engineer decisions require the ability to understand the system operational context that lies behind the observed data elements. In this respect, system models are in fact necessary to “put data in context” and capture relationships between data elements. Industry 4.0 methods require in fact contextual knowledge as a basis upon which hypotheses can be generated and assumptions tested. In our view, for complex systems, model-based system engineering (MBSE) models can afford this contextual knowledge, as they are typically used to describe systems architecture and dynamic behaviors. System knowledge is here intended as the blending of collected data and system architecture which takes the form of a “knowledge graph”. A knowledge graph is a database which consists of a large set of nodes (in our case an entity can be either a data or an MBSE element) which are linked to each other. The types of nodes and links follow a pre-defined topology, sometimes also refers as an ontology, that is designed to fit the actual decisions that needs to be performed. We show here how a knowledge graph can be defined to support system engineer maintenance decisions and how the same graph can be built based on system MBSE models and pre-processed data from numeric (through anomaly detections and diagnostic methods) and textual elements (through technical language processing TLP).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supporting Exploration Missions by Enabling Exploration Mission System Software

Future exploration missions will consist of a multitude of data sources, systems, and operators collaborating to complete mission objectives. Presently, NASA is instantiating the contractual mechanisms, such as the xEVAS and HLS contracts, to produce these mission assets. Architectural planning is also underway to establish the networking protocols and infrastructure to digitally create and connect mission elements, such as LunaNET. However, without new horizontally integrated data systems, these advancements will be limited in their ability to get mission data appropriately integrated into the plan, train, fly, explore workflow of the operations workforce. Here we describe several mission system software development efforts underway that are designed to support human spaceflight missions. We describe the current iterations of a suite of tools to support EVA procedure authoring and execution, for both ISS and Artemis missions, as well as a software solution to establish and interact with mission context and data products. These tools have been developed iteratively and continue to be tested in several NASA facilities such as the Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL), Artemis field testing, and in present-day International Space Station (ISS) operations on orbit. Our solutions demonstrate how software development can be aligned with ongoing operations development activities to discover the features that best support future human spaceflight missions.

EVA Mission System Software↗