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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Deep Space Network and Lunar Network Communication Coverage of the Moon

In this article, we describe the communication coverage analysis for the lunar network and the Earth ground stations. The first part of this article focuses on the direct communication coverage of the Moon from the Earth's ground stations. In particular, we assess the coverage performance of the Moon based on the existing Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas and the complimentary coverage of other potential stations at Hartebeesthoek, South Africa and at Santiago, Chile. We also address the coverage sensitivity based on different DSN antenna scenarios and their capability to provide single and redundant coverage of the Moon. The second part of this article focuses on the framework of the constrained optimization scheme to seek a stable constellation six relay satellites in two planes that not only can provide continuous communication coverage to any users on the Moon surface, but can also deliver data throughput in a highly efficient manner.

lunar network↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Methods for 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

Global lightning detection has advanced greatly over the past few decades both on ground and from orbit. Ground-based systems like the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) excel at high-precision 3D reconstruction of local flashes, while spaceborne lightning sensors have much larger potential coverage but are limited by coarser resolution and often rely on data from other instruments to determine 3D flash locations. CubeSpark is a new mission concept focused on combining these two methods in the form of six small satellites in low-Earth orbit. CubeSpark will combine RF and bispectral optical measurements of lightning in order to map the 3D structure of both individual flashes and their parent thunderstorms at 1-2 km spatial resolution on a global scale, enabling a host of new atmospheric, climate, and space electricity studies. The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility and expected resolution of lightning mapping via indivudal VHF sources using different methods and detector combinations. Flashes were simulated beneath orbital configurations consisting of 1-6 satellites, taking into account the complicated interactions with Earth's ionosphere. In the multi-satellite (>5) approach, RF detectors on each satellite measure the arrival times of impulsive VHF sources to collectively pinpoint their locations in 3D and reconstruct flashes with higher resolution than has been achieved from space. The same can process can be performed with 3-4 satellites by constraining sources' horizontal locations with onboard optical imagers. A 1-2 station approach follows the established method of determining the height of an RF source using the arrival time difference between direct RF waves and their reflections off the Earth's surface. Here we present preliminary results of the expected accuracy of these methods to inform potential satellite missions like CubeSpark.

Lightning↗
NASA NTRS1985

Comparison of level I land cover classification accuracy for MSS and AVHRR data

The capabilities of the Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for land-cover mapping were investigated by comparing the accuracy of land-cover information for the Washington, DC area derived from NOAA-7 AVHRR data with that from Landsat Multispectral Scanner Subsystem (MSS) data. Unsupervised level I land-cover classifications were performed for MSS and AVHRR data sets collected on July 11, 1981. A detailed accuracy assessment was conducted based on ground data delineated on 12 U.S. Geological Survey 7-5 min series topographic maps. These results produced overall land-cover classification accuracies of 71.9 and 76.8 per cent for AVHRR and MSS, respectively. While the accuracies for predominant categories were similar for both sensors, land-cover discrimination for less commonly occurring and/or spatially heterogeneous categories was improved with the MSS data set. The AVHRR, however, performed as well as or better than the MSS in classifying large homogeneous areas. The application of AVHRR data with its lower processing cost and more frequent worldwide coverage appears promising for regional land-cover mapping.

Gervin, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Real Time Fatigue Damage Growth Assessment of a Composite Three-Stringer Panel Using Passive Thermography

Fatigue testing of advanced composite structures is critical to validate both structural designs and damage prediction models. In-situ inspection methods are necessary to track damage onset and growth as a function of load cycles. Passive thermography is a large area, noncontact inspection technique that is used to detect composite damage onset and growth in real time as a function of fatigue cycles. The thermal images are acquired in synchronicity to the applied compressive load using a dual infrared camera acquisition system for full (front and back) coverage. Image processing algorithms are investigated to increase defect contrast areas. The thermal results are compared to non-immersion ultrasound inspections and acoustic emission data.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application‐driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision‐making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real‐time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm‐season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L‐band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35‐km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L‐band instrument in conjunction with a 3‐km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar‐radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality‐control and bias‐correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS‐Noah output. LIS‐Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near‐surface and boundary‐layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS‐Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS‐Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

VAS operational procedures and results at the Kansas City Satellite Field Services Station

An operational assessment of VAS data by using a Man-computer Interactive Data Access System (McIDAS) terminal linked by a 9600 band telephone line is discussed. Seven hours of VAS data were processed and edited daily. Data was scheduled 16 hours a day, 7 days a week; however, during this time period there were very few days with 16 hours of data to evalute. The McIDAS terminal, which has 10 display frames and 5 graphics, provide access to the sounding data processed. These data are processed using two procedures. The dwell sounding data are generated by using all 12 spectral channels with a spin budget of 39. To provide coverage for most of the United States, soundings are made starting at 18 minutes after the hour from approximately 49 deg N to 36 deg N and at 48 minutes after the hour from 36 deg N to 26 deg N. The dwell imaging mode uses 11 channels but the spin budge is 17. With the reduced spin budget, retrievals can be made at 18 or 48 minutes after the hour for approximately 44 deg N to 27 deg N. With these constraints a schedule, of data sets was proposed to use the schedule and how the data set could be used are shown.

Heckman, B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Climate Signal in Regional Moisture Fluxes: A Comparison of Three Global Data Assimilation Products

This study assesses the quality of estimates of climate variability in moisture flux and convergence from three assimilated data sets: two are reanalysis products generated at the Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEPJNCAR), and the third consists of the operational analyses generated at the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). The regions under study (the United States Great Plains, the Indian monsoon region, and Argentina east of the Andes) are characterized by frequent low level jets (LLJs) and other interannual low level wind variations tied to the large-scale flow. While the emphasis is on the reanalysis products, the comparison with the operational product is provided to help assess the improvements gained from a fixed analysis system. All three analyses capture the main moisture flux anomalies associated with selected extreme climate (drought and flood) events during the period 1985-93. The correspondence is strongest over the Great Plains and weakest over the Indian monsoon region reflecting differences in the observational coverage. For the reanalysis products, the uncertainties in the lower tropospheric winds is by far the dominant source of the discrepancies in the moisture flux anomalies in the middle latitude regions. Only in the Indian Monsoon region, where interannual variability in the low level winds is comparatively small, does the moisture bias play a substantial role. In contrast, the comparisons with the operational product show differences in moisture which are comparable torhe differences in the wind in all three regions. Compared with the fluxes, the anomalous moisture convergences show substantially larger differences among the three products. The best agreement occurs over the Great Plains region where all three products show vertically-integrated moisture convergence during the floods and divergence during the drought with differences in magnitude of about 25%. The reanalysis products, in particular, show good agreement in depicting the different roles of the mean flow and transients during the flood and drought periods. Differences between the three products in the other two regions exceed 100% reflecting differences in the low level jets and the large scale circulation patterns. The operational product tends to have locally larger amplitude convergence fields which average out in area-mean budgets: this appears to be at least in part due to errors in the surface pressure fields and aliasing from the higher resolution of the original ECMWF fields. On average, the reanalysis products show higher coherence with each other than with the operational product in the estimates of interannual variability. This result is less clear in the Indian monsoon region where differences in the input observations appears to be an important factor. The agreement in the anomalous convergence patterns is, however, still rather poor even over relatively data dense regions such as the United States Great Plains. These differences are attributed to deficiencies in the assimilating GCM's representations of the planetary boundary layer and orography, and a global observing system incapable of resolving the highly confined low level winds associated with the climate anomalies.

Min, Wei↗
NASA NTRS1983

Comparative accuracies of AVHRR and MSS data used for Level I land cover classifications

The capabilities of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for land cover mapping were investigated by comparing the accuracy of land cover information for the Washington, DC area derived from NOAA-7 AVHRR data with that from Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data. Unsupervised Level I land cover classifications were performed for MSS and AVHRR data sets collected on July 11, 1981. A detailed accuracy assessment was conducted based on ground truth delineated on six USGS 7.5 minute series topographic maps. Preliminary results produced overall land cover classification accuracies of 75.6 percent and 76.1 percent for AVHRR and MSS, respectively. While the accuracies for predominant categories such as agriculture, forest, and urban were similar for both sensors, discrimination of the less commonly occurring categories such as barren, wetland, and water was improved with the MSS data set. The AVHRR, however, performed as well as or better than the MSS in classifying large homogeneous areas. The application of AVHRR data with its lower processing cost and more frequent worldwide coverage appears promising for global land cover mapping.

Gervin, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reassessing the Origins and Contemporary Relevance of ck Acceptability Parameters: Evolving Perspectives on Similarity

“Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses Applied to Criticality Safety Validation,” introduces sensitivity and uncertainty methods to address challenges in defining and extending areas of applicability for criticality safety validation. These areas are traditionally defined by the bounds or limits on key parameters, but establishing valid ranges and managing complex parameter variations remain challenging. NUREG/CR-6655 introduces ck and other integral indices, as well as concepts such as the completeness of benchmark coverage, to better quantify system similarities. The work proposed herein seeks to evaluate these foundational concepts to ensure that the bounds remain effective in guiding the assessment of similarity and applicability in modern applications. The concept of completeness, along with other parameters envisioned within the framework, serves as an example of the foundational ideas that have been established, though their effectiveness in practice may not be fully understood. Advancements in scripting tools, coupled with the speed and efficiency of modern computing and statistical models, now allow for faster and more thorough assessments than previously possible. These advancements also enable the identification of trends within the data, which could provide additional insight into system behavior and further broaden the scope of previously performed benchmarks. By leveraging these capabilities, we will revisit and expand the scope of these foundational methods to determine whether the necessary elements for robust similarity evaluation are already embedded, partially realized, or remain untapped.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

NASA gateway requirements analysis

NASA devotes approximately 40 percent of its budget to R&D. Twelve NASA Research Centers and their contractors conduct this R&D, which ranges across many disciplines and is fueled by information about previous endeavors. Locating the right information is crucial. While NASA researchers use peer contacts as their primary source of scientific and technical information (STI), on-line bibliographic data bases - both Government-owned and commercial - are also frequently consulted. Once identified, the STI must be delivered in a usable format. This report assesses the appropriateness of developing an intelligent gateway interface for the NASA R&D community as a means of obtaining improved access to relevant STI resources outside of NASA's Remote Console (RECON) on-line bibliographic database. A study was conducted to determine (1) the information requirements of the R&D community, (2) the information sources to meet those requirements, and (3) ways of facilitating access to those information sources. Findings indicate that NASA researchers need more comprehensive STI coverage of disciplines not now represented in the RECON database. This augmented subject coverage should preferably be provided by both domestic and foreign STI sources. It was also found that NASA researchers frequently request rapid delivery of STI, in its original format. Finally, it was found that researchers need a better system for alerting them to recent developments in their areas of interest. A gateway that provides access to domestic and international information sources can also solve several shortcomings in the present STI delivery system. NASA should further test the practicality of a gateway as a mechanism for improved STI access.

Duncan, Denise R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global nitrogen deposition inputs to cropland at national scale from 1961 to 2020

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant nutrient input to cropland and consequently important for the evaluation of N budgets and N use efficiency (NUE) at different scales and over time. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of N deposition measurements is limited globally, whereas modeled N deposition values carry uncertainties. Here, we reviewed existing methods and related data sources for quantifying N deposition inputs to crop production on a national scale. We utilized different data sources to estimate N deposition input to crop production at national scale and compared our estimates with 14 N budget datasets, as well as measured N deposition data from observation networks in 9 countries. We created four datasets of N deposition inputs on cropland during 1961–2020 for 236 countries. These products showed good agreement for the majority of countries and can be used in the modeling and assessment of NUE at national and global scales. One of the datasets is recommended for general use in regional to global N budget and NUE estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability-Informed Life-Cycle Warranty Cost Analysis: A Case Study on a Transmission in Agricultural Equipment

In agricultural and industrial equipment, both new and remanufactured systems are often available for warranty coverage. In such cases, it may be challenging for equipment manufacturers to properly trade-off between the system reliability and the cost associated with a replacement option (e.g., replace with a new or remanufactured system). To address this problem, we present a reliability-informed life-cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis framework that enables equipment manufacturers to evaluate different warranty policies. These warranty policies differ in whether a new or remanufactured system is used for replacement in the case of product failure. The novelty of this LCWC analysis framework lies in its ability to incorporate real-world field reliability data into warranty policy assessment using probabilistic warranty cost models that consider multiple life cycles. First, the reliability functions for the new and remanufactured systems are built as the time-to-failure distributions that provide the best-fit to the field reliability data. Then, these reliability functions and their corresponding warranty policies are used to build the LCWC models according to the specific warranty terms. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate the time-to-failure uncertainty of each system, modeled by its reliability function, through each LCWC model to produce a probability distribution of the LCWC. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability-informed LCWC analysis framework is demonstrated with a real-world case study on a transmission used in some agricultural equipment.

agricultural equipment↗
DOE OSTI2025

The infrared imaging video bolometer at Wendelstein 7-X

The radiated power distribution is a crucial aspect of heat transport, heat load mitigation, and plasma exhaust performance. An imaging video bolometer camera has been installed to measure the plasma radiated power in the divertor region of the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. This diagnostic offers a wide-angle (40° × 68°) sampling of the plasma volume in both the poloidal and toroidal directions. The field-of-view is covered with a large number (> 500) of bolometer channels, providing imaging capability. The diagnostic design is introduced here together with its data analysis procedure. A set of laboratory experiments is performed to assess the thermal properties of the gold absorber foil and their spatial uniformity. Following installation, a heat source originating from the inertially cooled front of the diagnostic is identified and filtered out. The discharge data indicate a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio as well as spatiotemporal resolution. These represent the first toroidally resolved images of the line-integrated radiated power in the W7-X island divertor. The diagnostic was then upgraded with a thinner platinum absorber and adjusted mirrors. Early data from the most recent experimental campaign employing the upgraded design show a considerable improvement in the diagnostic performance with more bolometer channels (> 1400), extended coverage, and increased spatial resolution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic and Cost Analysis for Winston-Salem, North Carolina

This study assesses the feasibility of solar installations at various sites in Winston-Salem, focusing on factors such as solar resource availability, electricity costs, and rooftop area for photovoltaic systems. The analysis begins by estimating daily energy requirements based on annual electricity use, followed by adjusting for seasonal and operational fluctuations. Using regional solar data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), we calculate average peak sun hours to determine effective system sizing. A parametric approach using the System Advisor Model (SAM) refines this sizing process, incorporating a safety margin of 1.2 to address demand peaks. Each PV system is designed to fit available rooftop space, and a coverage threshold of 70% is identified as optimal for maximizing cost savings and sustainability. This threshold allows installations to meet substantial energy demands, supporting energy resilience and enhancing economic returns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Malin, Jane T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics‐based iterative reconstruction for dual‐source and flying focal spot computed tomography

Purpose For single‐source helical Computed Tomography (CT), both Filtered‐Back Projection (FBP) and statistical iterative reconstruction have been investigated. However, for dual‐source CT with flying focal spot (DS‐FFS CT), a statistical iterative reconstruction that accurately models the scanner geometry and acquisition physics remains unknown to researchers. Therefore, our purpose is to present a novel physics‐based iterative reconstruction method for DS‐FFS CT and assess its image quality. Methods Our algorithm uses precise physics models to reconstruct from the native cone‐beam geometry and interleaved dual‐source helical trajectory of a DS‐FFS CT. To do so, we construct a noise physics model to represent data acquisition noise and a prior image model to represent image noise and texture. In addition, we design forward system models to compute the locations of deflected focal spots, the dimension, and sensitivity of voxels and detector units, as well as the length of intersection between x‐rays and voxels. The forward system models further represent the coordinated movement between the dual sources by computing their x‐ray coverage gaps and overlaps at an arbitrary helical pitch. With the above models, we reconstruct images by an advanced Consensus Equilibrium (CE) numerical method to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate to a joint optimization problem that simultaneously fits all models. Results We compared our reconstruction with Siemens ADMIRE, which is the clinical standard hybrid iterative reconstruction (IR) method for DS‐FFS CT, in terms of spatial resolution, noise profile, and image artifacts through both phantoms and clinical scan datasets. Experiments show that our reconstruction has a higher spatial resolution, with a Task‐Based Modulation Transfer Function (MTF task ) consistently higher than the clinical standard hybrid IR. In addition, our reconstruction shows a reduced magnitude of image undersampling artifacts than the clinical standard. Conclusions By modeling a precise geometry and avoiding data rebinning or interpolation, our physics‐based reconstruction achieves a higher spatial resolution and fewer image artifacts with smaller magnitude than the clinical standard hybrid IR.

Wang, Xiao↗
NASA NTRS2011

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Algorithm and Cal/Val Activities and Synergies with SMOS and Other L-Band Missions

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has as its key measurement objective the frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, would enable significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing floods and for monitoring drought. In addition, observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes can help reduce uncertainties in quantifying the global carbon balance. The SMAP measurement concept utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The SMAP radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs are incorporating approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). The radar and radiometer instruments are planned to operate in a 680 km polar orbit, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments would yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state to be provided at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, every two to three days. Plans are to provide also a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution. This product and the underlying brightness temperatures have characteristics similar to those provided by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. As a result, there are unique opportunities for common data product development and continuity between the two missions. SMAP also has commonalities with other satellite missions having L-band radiometer and/or radar sensors applicable to soil moisture measurement, such as Aquarius, SAO COM, and ALOS-2. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. The algorithms are developed and evaluated in the SDS Testbed using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including SMOS. The SMAP project is developing a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level I) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher). In this presentation we report on the development status of the SMAP data product algorithms, and the planning and implementation of the SMAP Cal/Val program. Several components of the SMAP algorithm development and Cal/Val plans have commonality with those of SMOS, and for this reason there are shared activities and resources that can be utilized between the missions, including in situ networks, ancillary data sets, and long-term monitoring sites.

Njoku, Eni↗
NASA NTRS2001

Searching for the Beginning of the Ozone Turnaround Using a 22-Year Merged Satellite Data Set

We have used the data from six satellite instruments that measure the total column amount of ozone to construct a consistent merged data set extending from late 1978 into 2000. The keys to constructing a merged data set are to minimize potential drift of individual instruments and to accurately establish instrument-to-instrument offsets. We have used the short-wavelength D-pair measurements (306nm-313nm) of the SBUV and SBUV/2 instruments near the equator to establish a relatively drift-free record for these instruments. We have then used their overlap with the Nimbus 7 and EP TOMS instruments to establish the relative calibration of the various instruments. We have evaluated the drift uncertainty in our merged ozone data (MOD) set by examining both the individual instrument drift uncertainty and the uncertainty in establishing the instrument- to-instrument differences. We conclude that the instrumental drift uncertainty over the 22-year data record is 0.9 %/decade (2-sigma). We have compared our MOD record with 37 ground stations that have a continuous record over that time period. We have a mean drift with respect to the stations of +0.3 %/decade which is within 1-sigma of our uncertainty estimate. Using the satellite record as a transfer standard, we can estimate the capability of the ground instruments to establish satellite calibration. Adding the statistical variability of the station drifts with respect to the satellite to an estimate of the overall drift uncertainty of the world standard instrument, we conclude that the stations should be able to be used to establish the drift of the satellite data record to within and uncertainty of 0.6 %/decade (2-sigma). Adding to this an uncertainty due to the-incomplete global coverage of the stations, we conclude that the station data should be able to establish the global trend with an uncertainty of about 0.7 %/decade, slightly better than for the satellite record. We conclude that merging the two records together gives only a slight improvement in the uncertainty. Keeping them separate gives the greater confidence of two independent measures of the ozone trend and potential recovery. We fit the trend in our MOD record through May of 1991 and then extrapolated forward to see if the data at the end of the record was above the statistical model as a measure of ozone recovery as was done in the last WMO/UNEP assessment report. Because our data set drifts with respect to the ground-stations through May of 1991, we calculated a smaller global trend (-1.1 %/decade) than in the WMO/UNEP report. Our data in 1998 and 1999 was, on average 2 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 6 DU. For the combined mid-latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres, the data was 5 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 10 DU. These may be signs of recovery, but they are still statistically insignificant.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗