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NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Analysis of Digitally Enabled Cooperative Operations in Class D Terminal Airspace

The primary contribution of this paper is an initial analysis of integrating digitally enabled cooperative operations (or digital operations for short) with Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) operations in the terminal airspace around a Class D airport, specifically around Fort Worth Alliance airport (KAFW). Enabled by connected digital technologies and automated information exchange, digital operations as envisioned would utilize cooperative practices and operator-responsible separation to ensure safety. In the present study, three conflict management configurations for digital operations were analyzed: 1) centralized with a single instance of a conflict management service to model a scenario with only one fleet operator conducting digital operations or all fleet operators utilizing the same service, 2) federated with two different instances to model a scenario with two different fleet operators conducting digital operations, and 3) fully distributed with a different instance for each digital operation. In simulations in which recorded tracks for VFR and IFR operations were played back and digital operations were modeled that would nominally arrive at KAFW once every 20 minutes (given no conflict resolution maneuvers), there were one or fewer losses of separation (LOS) across the three conflict management configurations. The same result was seen in simulations in which digital operations would nominally arrive at KAFW once every 10 minutes. However, in simulations in which digital operations would nominally arrive at KAFW once every 5 minutes, the number of LOS ranged between six and ten. This highlights the need for follow-on research to investigate the extent to which additional capabilities for digital operations, such as complexity management and/or flow organization, may be needed.

digitally enabled cooperative operations, digital ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Analysis of Digitally Enabled Cooperative Operations in Class D Terminal Airspace

digitally enabled cooperative operations↗

NASA NTRS2016

Deconflicting Wind-Optimal Aircraft Trajectories in North Atlantic Oceanic Airspace

North Atlantic oceanic airspace accommodates more than 1000 flights daily, and is subjected to very strong winds. Flying wind-optimal trajectories yields time and fuel savings for each individual flight. However, when taken together, these trajectories induce a large amount of potential en-route conflicts. This paper analyses the detected conflicts, figuring out conflict distribution in time and space. It further describes an optimization algorithm aimed at reducing the number of conflicts for a daily set of flights on strategic level. Several trajectory modification strategies are discussed, followed with simulation results. Finally, an algorithm improvement is presented aiming at better preserving the trajectory optimality.

wind-optimal trajectories↗

NASA NTRS2020

Strategic Deconfliction Performance: Results and Analysis from the NASA UTM Technical Capability Level 4 Demonstration

Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) refers to the service-based, cooperative approach to the management of small UAS in the National Airspace System that is safe, scalable, and fair. UTM provides the means to manage the airspace in a complementary manner that does not burden the current air traffic control workforce or infrastructure but allows the Air Navigation Service Provider to maintain its regulatory and operational authority of the airspace. A key feature of UTM is the ability to provide operators the means to strategically deconflict operations from others in the airspace through the digital exchange of information via supporting services. Through this approach, the four-dimensional operation volumes that encompass the intent of operators in a given area are discoverable and can be used for airspace awareness as well as planning conflict free operations that account for and avoid other operations. In certain cases, it is also possible to negotiate volume intersections for shared airspace use without the need to re-plan. In the NASA UTM concept, strategic deconfliction is the first layer of three in the overall conflict management model. The three layers of the conflict management model, which follow the International Civil Aviation Organization’s scheme [ICAO 2005] are: strategic conflict management, separate provision, and collision avoidance. In UTM, the strategic layer mostly occurs prior to departure, but is applicable to en route operations with sufficient planning horizon. The initial requirements for a strategic deconfliction capability within UTM are defined in a NASA publication [Rios 2018]. Within the concept and implementation of service-provided strategic deconfliction is the notion of priority. It is understood that there are instances in which an operation requires a priority designation within the UTM system and special handling accordingly to provide situation awareness and facilitate appropriate responses from other airspace users. Examples of situations requiring priority designation include: when an operator declares an emergency due to problems with the vehicle or its immediate surroundings; operations that are in support of certain organizations (e.g., public safety and first responders); or special missions that also require priority use of airspace (e.g., emergency medical deliveries). UAS Volume Reservations (UVRs) also relate to the topic of priority in the sense that the airspace that the volume encompasses has a different status or classification in which unassociated operations must vacate if inside, or avoid if outside, through strategic deconfliction with the volume. Operations that are specially permitted to access the UVR area are typically assigned priority status given the nature of their mission and their associated credentials. The ability to perform strategic deconfliction, handle certain operations with a priority distinction, and establish UVRs that are communicated throughout the UTM system, is predicated on an architecture that has been established through an evolutionary process in response to close collaboration with stakeholders from government and industry. Another important and influential aspect of these capabilities and architecture is the live, distributed flight tests that have been conducted across the Technical Capability Levels (TCLs) that culminated with a set of complex tests performed as part of TCL4 [Rios 2020]. The TCL4 flight test involved two FAA-designated UAS test sites building teams to collaborate with NASA’s UTM Project on the execution of several detailed, small UAS scenarios in urban environments.

conflict management↗

NASA NTRS2022

Preliminary Analysis of Separation Standards for Urban Air Mobility using Unmitigated Fast-Time Simulation

This research provides a preliminary analysis of various separation standards for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This study focuses on understanding and analyzing potential conflicts between UAM flights and conflicts between UAM and conventional aircraft. Fast-time simulations are conducted with a projected high-density of UAM traffic scenario and historical conventional non-UAM traffic flying under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or Visual Flight Rules (VFR) in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace. The conflicts are analyzed by examining losses of separation and near mid-air collisions of UAM flights and unmitigated risk of collision. A set of varied separation standards are used to investigate the impact of the new UAM operations on safety. The preliminary conflict analysis results will help inform separation standards development and in airspace and route design activities for future UAM operations.

Urban air mobility↗

DOE OSTI2020

Disentangling Sources of Gene Tree Discordance in Phylogenomic Data Sets: Testing Ancient Hybridizations in Amaranthaceae s.l

Gene tree discordance in large genomic data sets can be caused by evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization, as well as model violation, and errors in data processing, orthology inference, and gene tree estimation. Species tree methods that identify and accommodate all sources of conflict are not available, but a combination of multiple approaches can help tease apart alternative sources of conflict. Here, using a phylotranscriptomic analysis in combination with reference genomes, we test a hypothesis of ancient hybridization events within the plant family Amaranthaceae s.l. that was previously supported by morphological, ecological, and Sanger-based molecular data. The data set included seven genomes and 88 transcriptomes, 17 generated for this study. We examined gene-tree discordance using coalescent-based species trees and network inference, gene tree discordance analyses, site pattern tests of introgression, topology tests, synteny analyses, and simulations. We found that a combination of processes might have generated the high levels of gene tree discordance in the backbone of Amaranthaceae s.l. Furthermore, we found evidence that three consecutive short internal branches produce anomalous trees contributing to the discordance. Overall, our results suggest that Amaranthaceae s.l. might be a product of an ancient and rapid lineage diversification, and remains, and probably will remain, unresolved. This work highlights the potential problems of identifiability associated with the sources of gene tree discordance including, in particular, phylogenetic network methods. Our results also demonstrate the importance of thoroughly testing for multiple sources of conflict in phylogenomic analyses, especially in the context of ancient, rapid radiations. We provide several recommendations for exploring conflicting signals in such situations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment

The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

The effect of simultaneous exposure on the attention selection and integration of segments and lexical tones by Urdu-Cantonese bilingual speakers

In the perceptual learning of lexical tones, an automatic and robust attention-to-phonology system enables native tonal listeners to adapt to acoustically non-optimal speech, such as phonetic conflicts in daily communications. Previous tone research reveals that non-native listeners who do not linguistically employ lexical tones in their mother tongue may find it challenging to attend to the tonal dimension or integrate it with the segmental features. However, it is unknown whether the attentional interference initially caused by a maternal attentional system would continue influencing the non-optimal tone perception for simultaneous bilingual teenagers. From an endpoint in the age of language acquisition, we investigate whether the tone-specific attention mechanism developed by the Urdu-Cantonese simultaneous bilinguals is automatic enough to assist them in adapting to a phonetically-conflicting environment. Three groups of teenagers engaged in a four-condition ABX task: Urdu-Cantonese simultaneous bilinguals, Cantonese native listeners, and Urdu-speaking, late learners of Cantonese. The results showed that although the simultaneous bilinguals could phonologically process Cantonese tones in a Cantonese-like way under a conflict-free listening condition, they still failed in adapting to the phonetic conflicts, especially the segment-induced ones. It thus demonstrated that the simultaneous exposure and years of regular education in Hong Kong local schools still could not automatically guarantee simultaneous bilingual processing of Cantonese tones. In interpreting the findings, it hypothesized that, except for simultaneous exposure, the development of a tone-specific attention mechanism is also likely to be L1-inhibitory, tone experience-driven, and language-specific for simultaneous bilinguals.

Ning, Jinghong↗

NASA NTRS1978

NASA aviation safety reporting system

A sample of reports relating to operations during winter weather is presented. Several reports involving problems of judgment and decisionmaking have been selected from the numerous reports representative of this area. Problems related to aeronautical charts are discussed in a number of reports. An analytic study of reports involving potential conflicts in the immediate vicinity of uncontrolled airports was performed; the results are discussed in this report. It was found that in three-fourths of 127 such conflicts, neither pilot, or only one of the pilots, was communicating position and intentions on the appropriate frequency. The importance of providing aural transfer of information, as a backup to the visual see and avoid mode of information transfer is discussed. It was also found that a large fraction of pilots involved in potential conflicts on final approach had executed straight-in approaches, rather than the recommended traffic pattern entries, prior to the conflicts. A selection of alert bulletins and responses to them by various segments of the aviation community is presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

An advisory system for predicting and resolving airspace violations based on four-dimensional guidance techniques

New heuristics are integrated with four-dimensional guidance techniques developed by NASA in order to automate the prediction and resolution of airspace violations, and three rules are derived to reduce the amount of computation time for conflict detection. Controller experience has been used to establish techniques for resolving potential conflicts including speed control, altitude maneuvers, and horizontal flight maneuvers. Current aircraft states, flight plans, and extrapolation of aircraft trajectories are used to synthesize four-dimensional trajectories, and the state of the air traffic and the interaction between aircraft are projected into the future using the four-dimensional algorithms. The situation is immediately updated to incorporate any new information. Potential conflicts among multiple aircraft are resolved by fast sequential resolution of potential conflicts between aircraft pairs, one at a time.

Lee, Homer Q.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Illusory self motion and simulator sickness

Presented here is a discussion of simulator sickness (with applications to motion sickness and space sickness) based on the notion of senses as perceptual systems, and the sensory conflict theory. Most forms of the sensory conflict theory unnecessarily propose the existence of a neural store. The neural store is thought to consist of a record of previous perceptual experiences against which currently experienced patterns of stimulation are compared. The authors seek to establish that in its most parsimonious form the sensory conflict theory does not require a construct such as the neural store. In its simpler form, the sensory conflict theory complements and extends Gibson's view of the senses as perceptual systems.

Hettinger, Lawrence J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

EOS distributed planning and scheduling prototype

Some of the more significant lessons learned during the development of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Distributed Planning and Scheduling Prototype are presented. The need for a central scheduler is not demonstrated. A mapping of scheduling and conflict-resolution responsibility across the nodes of the EOS distributed scheduling system is developed and shown to be both feasible and appropriate. Complex instrument scheduling is mostly accomplished at the ICC/IST (instrument control center/instrumental support terminal) with 'slidable' flexibility for slews and some kinds of calibrations resolved at the EOS Operations Center (EOC). All nodes have full visibility interinstrument contention for resource and environmental rights, e.g., vibration, thermal, and electromagnetic. The EOC assigns, by activity, initial action responsibility for conflict resolution to a node which is party to the conflict. Most interinstrument conflicts are resolved by the ICCs and ISTs during an intermediate scheduling phase while the EOC is negotiating a TDRS schedule with the NCC.

Hull, Larry G.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Integration of Multiple Non-Normal Checklist Procedures into a Single Checklist Procedure for Transport Aircraft: A Preliminary Investigation

Checklists are used by the flight crew to properly configure an aircraft for safe flight and to ensure a high level of safety throughout the duration of the flight. In addition, the checklist provides a sequential framework to meet cockpit operational requirements, and it fosters cross-checking of the flight deck configuration among crew members. This study examined the feasibility of integrating multiple checklists for non-normal procedures into a single procedure for a typical transport aircraft. For the purposes of this report, a typical transport aircraft is one that represents a midpoint between early generation aircraft (B-727/737-200 and DC-10) and modern glass cockpit aircraft (B747-400/777 and MD-11). In this report, potential conflicts among non-normal checklist items during multiple failure situations for a transport aircraft are identified and analyzed. The non-normal checklist procedure that would take precedence for each of the identified multiple failure flight conditions is also identified. The rationale behind this research is that potential conflicts among checklist items might exist when integrating multiple checklists for non-normal procedures into a single checklist. As a rule, multiple failures occurring in today's highly automated and redundant system transport aircraft are extremely improbable. In addition, as shown in this analysis, conflicts among checklist items in a multiple failure flight condition are exceedingly unlikely. The possibility of a multiple failure flight condition occurring with a conflict among checklist items is so remote that integration of the non-normal checklists into a single checklist appears to be a plausible option.

Foernsler, Lynda J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Driving Parameters for Distributed and Centralized Air Transportation Architectures

This report considers the problem of intersecting aircraft flows under decentralized conflict avoidance rules. Using an Eulerian standpoint (aircraft flow through a fixed control volume), new air traffic control models and scenarios are defined that enable the study of long-term airspace stability problems. Considering a class of two intersecting aircraft flows, it is shown that airspace stability, defined both in terms of safety and performance, is preserved under decentralized conflict resolution algorithms. Performance bounds are derived for the aircraft flow problem under different maneuver models. Besides analytical approaches, numerical examples are presented to test the theoretical results, as well as to generate some insight about the structure of the traffic flow after resolution. Considering more than two intersecting aircraft flows, simulations indicate that flow stability may not be guaranteed under simple conflict avoidance rules. Finally, a comparison is made with centralized strategies to conflict resolution.

Feron, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2001

Automatic Debugging Support for UML Designs

Design of large software systems requires rigorous application of software engineering methods covering all phases of the software process. Debugging during the early design phases is extremely important, because late bug-fixes are expensive. In this paper, we describe an approach which facilitates debugging of UML requirements and designs. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a set of notations for object-orient design of a software system. We have developed an algorithm which translates requirement specifications in the form of annotated sequence diagrams into structured statecharts. This algorithm detects conflicts between sequence diagrams and inconsistencies in the domain knowledge. After synthesizing statecharts from sequence diagrams, these statecharts usually are subject to manual modification and refinement. By using the "backward" direction of our synthesis algorithm. we are able to map modifications made to the statechart back into the requirements (sequence diagrams) and check for conflicts there. Fed back to the user conflicts detected by our algorithm are the basis for deductive-based debugging of requirements and domain theory in very early development stages. Our approach allows to generate explanations oil why there is a conflict and which parts of the specifications are affected.

Schumann, Johann↗

NASA NTRS2004

Trajectory Specification for High-Capacity Air Traffic Control

In the current air traffic management system, the fundamental limitation on airspace capacity is the cognitive ability of human air traffic controllers to maintain safe separation with high reliability. The doubling or tripling of airspace capacity that will be needed over the next couple of decades will require that tactical separation be at least partially automated. Standardized conflict-free four-dimensional trajectory assignment will be needed to accomplish that objective. A trajectory specification format based on the Extensible Markup Language is proposed for that purpose. This format can be used to downlink a trajectory request, which can then be checked on the ground for conflicts and approved or modified, if necessary, then uplinked as the assigned trajectory. The horizontal path is specified as a series of geodetic waypoints connected by great circles, and the great-circle segments are connected by turns of specified radius. Vertical profiles for climb and descent are specified as low-order polynomial functions of along-track position, which is itself specified as a function of time. Flight technical error tolerances in the along-track, cross-track, and vertical axes define a bounding space around the reference trajectory, and conformance will guarantee the required separation for a period of time known as the conflict time horizon. An important safety benefit of this regimen is that the traffic will be able to fly free of conflicts for at least several minutes even if all ground systems and the entire communication infrastructure fail. Periodic updates in the along-track axis will adjust for errors in the predicted along-track winds.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Performance Assessment of an Airborne Separation Assistance System Using Realistic Complex Traffic Flows

This paper presents the results from a study that investigates the performance of a tactical Airborne Separation Assistance System (ASAS) in en route airspace, under varying demand levels, with realistic traffic flows. The ASAS concept studied here allows flight crews of equipped aircraft to perform separation from other air traffic autonomously. This study addresses the tactical aspects of an ASAS using aircraft state data (i.e. position and velocity) to detect and resolve projected conflicts. In addition, use of a conflict prevention system helps ASAS-equipped aircraft avoid maneuvers that may cause new conflicts. ASAS-capable aircraft are equipped with satellite-based navigation and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) for transmission and receipt of aircraft state data. In addition to tactical conflict detection and resolution (CD&R), a complete, integrated ASAS is likely to incorporate a strategic CD&R component with a longer look-ahead time, using trajectory intent information. A system-wide traffic flow management (TFM) component, located at the FAA command center helps aircraft to avoid regions of excessive traffic density and complexity. A Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS), as used today is the system of last resort. This integrated approach avoids sole reliance on the use of the tactical CD&R studied here, but the tactical component remains a critical element of the complete ASAS. The focus of this paper is to determine to what extent the proposed tactical component of ASAS alone can maintain aircraft separation at demand levels up to three times that of current traffic. The study also investigates the effect of mixing ASAS-equipped aircraft with unequipped aircraft (i.e. current day) that do not have the capability to self-separate. Position and velocity data for unequipped aircraft needs to be available to ASASequipped. Most likely, for this future concept, state data would be available from instrument flight rules (IFR) aircraft, equipped with at least ADS-B transmission capability. The objective is to reduce the number of losses of separation to a minimum and investigate the limits of tactical-only CD&R. Thus, the objective is not, expressly, to achieve zero losses of separation with tactical ASAS because this is one component of an integrated ASAS.

Smith, Jeremy C.↗