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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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281 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Affordable Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Machine Supervision System for the Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturers

With the rapid concurrent advance of artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) technology, manufacturing environments are being upgraded or equipped with a smart and connected infrastructure that empowers workers and supervisors to optimize manufacturing workflow and processes for improved energy efficiency, equipment reliability, quality, safety, and productivity. This challenges capital cost and complexity for many small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) who heavily rely on people to supervise manufacturing processes and facilities. This research aims to create an affordable, scalable, accessible, and portable (ASAP) solution to automate the supervision of manufacturing processes. The proposed approach seeks to reduce the cost and complexity of smart manufacturing deployment for SMMs through the deployment of consumer-grade electronics and a novel AI development methodology. The proposed system, AI-assisted Machine Supervision (AIMS), provides SMMs with two major subsystems: direct machine monitoring (DMM) and human-machine interaction monitoring (HIM). The AIMS system was evaluated and validated with a case study in 3D printing through the affordable AI accelerator solution of the vision processing unit (VPU).

3D printing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) Sharing Lifecycle Report

As Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) adoption efforts mature, SBOM sharing continues to occur, but no single solution or set of solutions have become ubiquitous. The purpose of this report is to enumerate and describe the different parties and phases of the SBOM sharing lifecycle and assist readers in choosing suitable SBOM sharing solutions based on the amount of time, resources, subject-matter expertise, effort, and access to tooling that is available to the reader to implement a phase of the SBOM sharing lifecycle. The SBOM sharing lifecycle consists of the Discovery, Access, and Transport of an SBOM and this report details these individual phases and how an SBOM goes from author to the consumer. This report also details how potential enrichment activities may be performed on an SBOM to create a new product before or after it has been shared. The concept of a sophistication classification for SBOM sharing solutions is concurrently introduced with a focus on the inclusion or lack of certain features and effort associated with their implementation. Examples of low, medium, and high-sophistication solutions are provided; however, these examples and associated categorizations should not be seen as a qualitative judgment meant to push the reader towards a particular adoption strategy since sharing solutions are chosen based on the unique needs of the user. This report does recommend the SBOM community consider how to make current and future sharing solutions interoperable with each other as well as more automated methods to facilitate sharing and broader SBOM adoption. This report also highlights an SBOM sharing survey results obtained from interviews with stakeholders to understand the current SBOM sharing landscape. The categorized results of the survey suggest that SBOMs are currently transported directly to the receiver through email or similar informal communication mechanisms or alternatively the SBOM resides on a repository available to consumers. In addition to these transport methods, this report captures industry efforts to create private sharing solutions and services that can store and transport enrichment data and may use higher sophistication features that are cloud-based or using distributed ledger technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differential laboratory passaging of SARS-CoV-2 viral stocks impacts the in vitro assessment of neutralizing antibodies

Viral populations in natural infections can have a high degree of sequence diversity, which can directly impact immune escape. However, antibody potency is often tested in vitro with a relatively clonal viral populations, such as laboratory virus or pseudotyped virus stocks, which may not accurately represent the genetic diversity of circulating viral genotypes. This can affect the validity of viral phenotype assays, such as antibody neutralization assays. To address this issue, we tested whether recombinant virus carrying SARS-CoV-2 spike (VSV-SARS-CoV-2-S) stocks could be made more genetically diverse by passage, and if a stock passaged under selective pressure was more capable of escaping monoclonal antibody (mAb) neutralization than unpassaged stock or than viral stock passaged without selective pressures. We passaged VSV-SARS-CoV-2-S four times concurrently in three cell lines and then six times with or without polyclonal antiserum selection pressure. All three of the monoclonal antibodies tested neutralized the viral population present in the unpassaged stock. The viral inoculum derived from serial passage without antiserum selection pressure was neutralized by two of the three mAbs. However, the viral inoculum derived from serial passage under antiserum selection pressure escaped neutralization by all three mAbs. Deep sequencing revealed the rapid acquisition of multiple mutations associated with antibody escape in the VSV-SARS-CoV-2-S that had been passaged in the presence of antiserum, including key mutations present in currently circulating Omicron subvariants. These data indicate that viral stock that was generated under polyclonal antiserum selection pressure better reflects the natural environment of the circulating virus and may yield more biologically relevant outcomes in phenotypic assays. Thus, mAb assessment assays that utilize a more genetically diverse, biologically relevant, virus stock may yield data that are relevant for prediction of mAb efficacy and for enhancing biosurveillance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Collaborative Research Activities of the Arase and Van Allen Probes

This paper presents the highlights of joint observations of the inner magnetosphere by the Arase spacecraft, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, and ground-based experiments integrated into spacecraft programs. The concurrent operation of the two missions in 2017–2019 facilitated the separation of the spatial and temporal structures of dynamic phenomena occurring in the inner magnetosphere. Because the orbital inclination angle of Arase is larger than that of Van Allen Probes, Arase collected observations at higher L-shells up to L ~ 10. After March 2017, similar variations in plasma and waves were detected by Van Allen Probes and Arase. We describe plasma wave observations at longitudinally separated locations in space and geomagnetically-conjugate locations in space and on the ground. The results of instrument intercalibrations between the two missions are also presented. Arase continued its normal operation after the scientific operation of Van Allen Probes completed in October 2019. The combined Van Allen Probes (2012-2019) and Arase (2017-present) observations will cover a full solar cycle. This will be the first comprehensive long-term observation of the inner magnetosphere and radiation belts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Field-collected vegetation attributes and site photos

This dataset represents field observations of vegetation samples collected as part of the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) during June and July of 2025. Samples were collected in the field using tablet computers and digital forms, with target data differing by sample type (individual trees, individual shrubs, or 1-meter square plots of meadow and subshrub vegetation). Field samples were collected within 72 hours of airborne data collection using the National Ecological Observatory Network’s Aerial Observation Platform (NEON AOP). The NEON AOP collected waveform LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and imaging spectrometer data in 426 spectral bands from the visible to shortwave infrared. Remote sensing data for the project is available on ESS-DIVE (DOI and citation to be added upon publication). Field data collected included canopy height and per-species horizontal proportional cover for meadow plots, species identity and height information for shrubs, as well as species identity, height, diameter at breast height, and health assessment information for trees. Photos of the focal site and surrounding landscape were taken for all sampling sites and are included in this archive. Green leaves or needles were collected for plant trait and foliar chemistry analysis. This data is archived separately (DOI and citation to be added upon publication). High-precision geospatial data for each sample (crown perimeter polygons for trees and shrubs, plot boundaries for meadow plots) is available here (Henderson et al., 2026). Field and remote sensing protocols largely followed those of a previous field and airborne imaging campaign performed in 2018 (described in Chadwick et al. 2020). Field data from the 2018 campaign can be found here (Chadwick et al., 2020 doi:10.15485/1618130). Because different field measurements were taken for meadow, shrub, and tree sites, data from these three sample types are archived as separate tables (chess_meadow_site_cleaned.csv, chess_shrub_site_cleaned.csv, chess_tree_site_cleaned.csv). Meadow proportional cover data is stored in a separate table (chess_meadow_cover_cleaned.csv). Taxonomy was treated identically between sample types, and the dataset shares a common set of voucher specimens (chess_voucher_IDs_cleaned.csv), as well as a single species list (chess_species_list_cleaned.csv). All taxonomic determinations were performed to the species level, and adhere to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) backbone taxonomy as of January 10th, 2026 (GBIF Secretariat 2023). CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compositional Reasoning for Hierarchical State Machines

Harel statecharts and its derivatives are popular graphical languages for specifying discrete control systems via hierarchical state machines. Separately, there has been a long line of work on specifying concurrent systems with process calculi which come equipped with an algebraic theory, the ability reason compositionally about various temporal properties, and strong type systems. While these two approaches to modeling systems are tantalizingly similar, the integrated reasoning principles that exist for process calculi have not been demonstrated in hierarchical state machines. A key issue is that operational theories for process calculi do not behave like control systems, and thus, there is virtually no tool support for modeling control systems with such languages. For a control system designer, bringing the integrated, more scalable reasoning from the process calculi to state-machine languages would enable the specification of more complex systems and a more modular systems development process. Our insight is that we can recover many important results from the process calculi in hierarchical state machines with local scope. We employ a structural operational semantics, which is ubiquitous in process and 𝜆-calculi but uncommon in hierarchical statemachine formalizations, to enable inductive reasoning about behavior. Taking inspiration from the structure of process calculi metatheories, we define a calculus of refinement and equivalence that we prove sound with respect to local notion of (bi)simulation. Furthermore, we prove that the calculus preserves the behavioral properties of reactivity, observational determinism, traces, and linear temporal properties. Our results are mechanized in the Rocq proof assistant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗