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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riparian vegetation composition and diversity shows resilience following cessation of livestock grazing in northeastern Oregon, USA

Riparian ecosystem restoration has been accomplished through exclusion of livestock using corridor fencing along hundreds of kilometers of streams in the western United States, for the benefit of riparian-obligate wildlife and endangered fishes. Yet, there are limited scientific studies that have evaluated more than short-term shifts in vegetation composition and diversity at a single location or handful of locations following grazing. We sampled riparian vegetation composition along 11-paired grazed and ungrazed (exclosed) stream reaches in northeastern Oregon. Exclosure ages ranged from 2 to >30 years and grazing treatments varied from light grazing every one out of three years to heavy season-long grazing. Species richness and diversity was higher in the ungrazed reaches (p = 0.002). The abundance of native sedges ( Carex spp.) and broad-leaved forbs were also significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater in ungrazed areas. In contrast, exotic species adapted to grazing such as Poa pratensis and Trifolium repens were more abundant in grazed stream reaches. The prevalence of hydrophytic species significantly increased (p ≤ 0.01) in ungrazed reaches, (based on wetland species indicator scores), indicating that wetland-dominated communities within the ungrazed stream reaches were replacing ones adapted to drier environments. The increased abundance of facultative and wetland-obligate species in ungrazed reaches compared to grazed reaches suggests that livestock grazing exacerbates those climate change effects also leading to warmer and drier conditions. Further, riparian-obligate shrub cover along the streambank was higher in 7 of 8 exclosures that were older than 5 years (p = 0.05). As a restoration approach, the inherent resilience of riparian ecosystems exhibited in ungrazed riparian zones suggest positive feedbacks to other beneficial ecosystem processes such as increased species and habitat diversity, increased carbon sequestration, enhanced allochthonous inputs and greater sediment retention, that would affect the aquatic and terrestrial biota, water quality, and stream morphology.

Kauffman, J. Boone (ORCID:0000000290202815)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review: PFAS Adsorption, Sensing, and Remediation with Engineered Nanoporous Materials

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are among the most abundant environmental contaminant species. They are widespread due to uncontrolled industrial and commercial use and have been linked to health risks such as cancer. With rising global concerns about the public health effects of PFAS, there is an incentive to develop strategies for reliable monitoring and effective PFAS removal, particularly in drinking water. Traditional PFAS sensing techniques are inefficient due to long measurement times, high labor input, high costs, and limitations to ex situ analysis. Current commercially available sorbents for PFAS removal generally lack the ability to capture PFAS components rapidly and quantitatively. Furthermore, existing sorbents are notably inefficient in removing the more toxic, smaller PFAS chemical chains. Large-scale applications of these methods tend to be costly and resource-intensive. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has developed unique strategies for PFAS sensing and removal with capture probe technology that has an affinity for fluorocarbons, including PFAS. For both sensing and removal, the customizable capture probes can target specific PFAS compounds since they used a metal-organic framework (MOF)-based technology that can be fine-tuned and molecularly tailored. This tailoring of the materials enables high PFAS sensitivity, selectivity, and faster uptake. PNNL’s capture probe materials have been developed into a sensing technique based on the interactions of the capture probes with PFAS at the molecular level and further transduced that to a quantifiable electrochemical response. The materials have been integrated into a sensor platform developed by New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT). Tunable capture probes with a range of detection sensitivities allow for faster and more sensitive PFAS detection limits as low as what appears to be 0.5 ng/L (compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health advisory level of 70 ng/L). Customization of the capture probe results in improved sorption capacities (fast kinetics and high capacities) compared to commercial granular activated carbons. This research applied various experimental and modeling tools to improve understanding the molecular level interactions between the sorbents towards PFAS adsorption properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Throughput Optimization of Molybdenum Carbide Nanoparticle Catalysts in a Continuous Flow Reactor Using Design of Experiments

Transition metal carbides (TMCs) have attracted significant attention because of their applications toward a wide range of catalytic transformations. However, the practicality of their synthesis is still limited because of the harsh conditions in which most TMCs are prepared. Recently, a solution-phase synthesis of phase-pure a-MoC1-x nanoparticles was presented. While this synthetic route yielded nanoparticles with exceptional catalytic performance, the reaction parameter space was not explored, and catalyst throughput was not optimized for scale-up. Continuous flow platforms coupled with statistical design of experiments (DoE) can provide a powerful method for understanding the reaction parameter space for optimizations. Here, we demonstrate the use of statistical DoE in tandem with response surface methodology for a parametric screening analysis to optimize the throughput of a MoC1-x nanoparticle synthesis utilizing a millifluidic flow reactor. A full factorial design was implemented to evaluate four input variables (reaction temperature, flow rate, solvent fraction of oleylamine, and precursor concentration) that carry statistically significant effects on three responses (throughput, residence time, and isolated yield). A Doehlert matrix was implemented to investigate each significant variable at a higher number of levels to optimize throughput. Our results give a nonintuitive set of experimental conditions that resulted in an optimized throughput of 2.2 g h-1. This translates to a 50-fold increase in throughput compared to the previously reported batch method. The catalytic performance of the MoC1-x nanoparticles produced under optimized throughput was demonstrated in the CO2 hydrogenation reaction. This DoE screening analysis and throughput optimization of MoC1-x synthesis open the door to an increased feasibility for scale-up.

design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of High-Temperature Martensitic Steels for Heavy-Duty Diesel Piston Applications

Five different commercially available high-temperature martensitic steels were evaluated for use in a heavy-duty diesel engine piston application and compared to existing piston alloys 4140 and microalloyed steel 38MnSiVS5 (MAS). Finite element analyses (FEA) were performed to predict the temperature and stress distributions for severe engine operating conditions of interest, and thus aid in the selection of the candidate steels. Complementary material testing was conducted to evaluate the properties relevant to the material performance in a piston. The elevated temperature strength, strength evolution during thermal aging, and thermal property data were used as inputs into the FEA piston models. Additionally, the long-term oxidation performance was assessed relative to the predicted maximum operating temperature for each material using coupon samples in a controlled-atmosphere cyclic-oxidation test rig. A current commercial steel piston alloy, quenched and tempered martensitic steel 4140, was tested in a single-cylinder research engine for a baseline oxidation and mechanical performance assessment using an abbreviated (50h) durability test plan. The predicted suitability of a candidate piston material in an engine is primarily based on its elevated temperature strength, oxidation resistance, and the complex influence of thermal conductivity, the latter of which is substantially lower for the candidate materials considered in this research relative to the traditional alloys. Although the lower thermal conductivity causes the candidate alloys to operate in higher temperature ranges under identical engine operating conditions and piston geometries, increasing the likelihood of partially or completely negating their strength and oxidation resistance advantages relative to 4140 and MAS steels, this evaluation indicates that several of the candidate piston alloys are predicted to enable improved oxidation resistance under more severe engine operating conditions relative to the current piston materials. However, further evaluation is required to determine if the elevated temperature fatigue strength and durability of these alloys are suitable for more severe engine conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rare Earth Elements (REE) and Critical Minerals (CM) in Middle Pennsylvanian-Age Coals and Associated Sediments in the Central Appalachian Basin, Eastern U.S.A.

The Central Appalachian Basin (CAB) of Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and Virginia has a long history of coal mining and oil and gas extraction that has empowered the regional and national economies, the development of infrastructure, and a highly trained energy resources work force. As our societal demands for advanced technologies have rapidly increased in recent years, coal-related materials are viewed as an important new unconventional domestic source of critical minerals (CM) that are required for telecommunications, aerospace and transportation industries, electronics, the transition to low-carbon emissions energy production, and many consumer products. Coal-related materials encompass coal, associated sediments, coal mining waste materials, produced waters, and ash residues from coal-fired power plants. An important objective of the Evolve Central Appalachia Project (Evolve CAPP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is to assess the quantity and distribution of CM resources in the CAB region. The rare earth elements (REE) are considered highest priority, although other important CM such as niobium, gallium, and zirconium are known to occur in the Middle Pennsylvanian-age coals and sediments. Working with coal industry partners who provided access to drill cores, coal-related sediments and waste materials, over 600 samples have been collected for laboratory analysis, and over 730 materials have been scanned using portable x-ray fluorescence (pXRF) equipment. The application of pXRF provides the means for real-time semiquantitative analysis of CM content at very close spacings (typically 2-3 inch intervals) along drill core and in-situ channel samples that span the roof, coal seam, and floor rock. The comparison of pXRF geochemical data with laboratory results, geologic data, and downhole spectral gamma logs can provide high resolution input to lithologic and depositional models for future CM resource evaluations. The preliminary findings show that pXRF is capable of accurately measuring low concentrations of many of the CM with a high level of confidence (Ba, Cr, Ga, K, Nb, Rb, Sr, Th, Y), whereas for others (La, Ce, Co, Mn, Nd, Ni, Sc, Ti, V) the detection limits are very high or spectral interferences increase the uncertainty. Notably, the mean abundances of Y (34 ppm), La (86 ppm), Ga (40 ppm), and V (146 ppm) in coal underclays in the CAB region are up to 7X enriched compared with the overlying coal. These values also exceed the reported concentrations in published reference materials for upper continental crustal rocks (Rudnick and Gao, 2003), North American Shale Composite (Gromet et al., 1984), and North American coal (Finkelman, 1993). The pXRF data are in part verified by laboratory results that indicate the mean Y abundance (36 ppm) is highly correlated (R2 = 0.807) with total REE (ΣREE). The correlation is even higher (R2 = 0.957) with heavy REE (ΣHREE). Applying these correlations to the pXRF data for the coal underclays, the mean estimated values for ΣREE+Y and ΣHREE+Y are 270 ppm and 58 ppm, respectively. Although these average values are not considered high, the range of Y measured by pXRF in the coal underclays extended as high as 114 ppm, which would suggest ΣREE+Y equal to 847 ppm. The mean abundances of Zr (192 ppm) and Th (21 ppm) in coal underclays are also enriched compared with the overlying coal and these results likely reflect the presence of resistant detrital heavy minerals such as monazite, xenotime, and zircon in the underclay matrix. Several of the profiled coal seams and associated wall rocks contained thin volcanic ash layers up to 4-5 inches in thickness. The extent to which these ash fall layers provided a source for CM under the paleoenvironmental conditions that resulted in coal deposits in the CAB remains to be fully studied. Continuing investigations in the Evolve CAPP study area will include laboratory determinations of mineralogic and clay compositions, and evaluations of CM geochemical mobility in the coal and coal underclays.

Lassetter, Billy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Formation and fate of freshwater on an ice floe in the Central Arctic

The melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer is a significant source of relatively fresh meltwater. The fate of this freshwater, whether in surface melt ponds or thin layers underneath the ice and in leads, impacts atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions and their subsequent coupled evolution. Here, we combine analyses of datasets from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (June–July 2020) for a process study on the formation and fate of sea ice freshwater on ice floes in the Central Arctic. Our freshwater budget analyses suggest that a relatively high fraction (58 %) is derived from surface melt. Additionally, the contribution from stored precipitation (snowmelt) outweighs by 5 times the input from in situ summer precipitation (rain). The magnitude and rate of local meltwater production are remarkably similar to those observed on the prior Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign, where the cumulative summer freshwater production totaled around 1 m during both. A relatively small fraction (10 %) of freshwater from melt remains in ponds, which is higher on more deformed second-year ice (SYI) compared to first-year ice (FYI) later in the summer. Most meltwater drains laterally and vertically, with vertical drainage enabling storage of freshwater internally in the ice by freshening brine channels. In the upper ocean, freshwater can accumulate in transient meltwater layers on the order of 0.1 to 1 m thick in leads and under the ice. The presence of such layers substantially impacts the coupled system by reducing bottom melt and allowing false bottom growth; reducing heat, nutrient, and gas exchange; and influencing ecosystem productivity. Regardless, the majority fraction of freshwater from melt is inferred to be ultimately incorporated into the upper ocean (75 %) or stored internally in the ice (14 %). Terms such as the annual sea ice freshwater production and meltwater storage in ponds could be used in future work as diagnostics for global climate and process models. For example, the range of values from the CESM2 climate model roughly encapsulate the observed total freshwater production, while storage in melt ponds is underestimated by about 50 %, suggesting pond drainage terms as a key process for investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Creep-fatigue Behavior and Damage Accumulation of a Candidate Structural Material for Concentrating Solar Power Solar Thermal Receiver (Final Technical Report)

Creep-fatigue deformation is an important consideration for a thermal receiver in Concentrating Solar Power systems due to the constant static stress or pressure, diurnal cycling, and elevated service temperatures required for efficient operation. An accurate description of the creep-fatigue behavior, not available for five of the six candidate materials, is important for assessment of preliminary designs. This project has provided a detailed analysis of the creep-fatigue behavior and damage accumulation of Alloy 740H, a candidate structural material for a CSP solar thermal receiver to address a critical knowledge barrier for receiver designs identified in the CSP Gen3 Demonstration Roadmap. This project was divided in to three tasks, split between two general categories: Experimental and design methodology. Tasks 1 and 3, relating to the collection of data on Alloy 740H plate and sheet forms, respectively, were performed at the Idaho National Laboratory and used as input to Task 2, the development of design methodology performed at Argonne National Laboratory. Experimental work covered limited tensile and creep testing to fill gaps in available data that is currently available and to demonstrate how the plate of Alloy 740H tested in this work compared to historical data. A more substantial testing program for fatigue and creep-fatigue was performed, with particular emphasis on creep-fatigue as there is little available data and it is necessary to understand the creep-fatigue interaction and develop related design models. This effort includes the development of rules for the design of solar receiver components against high temperature creep-fatigue and ratcheting failure modes. The ASME Code rules for high temperature nuclear components was used to the basis of the method but adjustments will be made to reflect the generally shorter, diurnal operating cycles of thermal receivers and the relative consequences of failure, comparing nuclear to solar components. This work has provided guidance for the design of components for concentrating power facilities operating at high temperatures and undergoing high, secondary thermal stresses relative to the applied primary pressure stress. The design rules were developed for the design of Generation 3 CSP tubular receivers manufactured from Alloy 740H, but are generally applicable to a wide range of component types undergoing similar loads. Procedural design rules for components to be used in conjunction with the 2019 edition of the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code and the corresponding design data for Alloy 740H have been developed. A commentary describing the rationale behind the design rules and the data underlying the design material properties, as well as an extensive set of worked sample problems detailing the application of the rules to CSP components were developed as a part of this project, with a separate report covering these aspects in detail and included in the Appendix of this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Nucleon Short-Range Correlations in Light Nuclei

Understanding the nucleon-nucleon interaction is a fundamental task in nuclear physics, as NN interaction models are a crucial input to modern nuclear structure calculations. While great progress has been made toward understanding this interaction, the available state-of-the-art models predict significantly different behaviors at short distances and high momenta (scale-and-scheme dependence), where two-nucleon Short-Range Correlations (SRCs) dominate the nuclear wave function. Thus, SRCs are a unique tool to constrain the NN interaction and vice versa. SRCs are naturallyoccurring high-local-density NN pairs that, as a result of their short-distance (approx. 0.1 fm) repulsive interaction, fly apart with high momenta, hence populating momentum states above the Fermi level. The study of SRCs also has significant implications for other fields, such as the astrophysics of neutron stars and the behavior of cold atomic gasses. This thesis describes experimental and phenomenological studies of the short-distance / high-momentum structure of the NN interaction through the study of SRCs and vice versa. Experimentally, I report the first measurement of the 3He and 3H(e,e'p) reactions in Hall A of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility in kinematics in which the measured cross sections should be sensitive to the underlying nucleon momentum distributions in the range 40 to 500 MeV/c. The resulting cross-section ratios and absolute cross sections were compared to momentum-distribution ratios and precise cross-section calculations respectively. Phenomenologically, I report the generalization of the Contact Formalism (GCF) to nuclear systems, which exploits scale separation and universality to describe nucleons at short distances and high momenta.

Cruz Torres, Reynier↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding radiation effects in friction stir welded MA956 using ion irradiation and a rate theory model

We report an outstanding challenge in the manufacturing and joining of oxide dispersion strengthened steels is retaining the nanofeatures in the alloy throughout the fabrication and welding process. MA956 was friction stir welded with two different sets of welding parameters, resulting in a medium and high heat input. After welding, 5 MeV Fe ++ ion irradiations were performed at doses ranging from 50 to 200 dpa in the temperature range of 400 to 500°C. Post-irradiation characterization was performed with scanning transmission electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy to investigate the Y-Al-O dispersoids, voids, and dislocations. After welding, the dispersoid microstructure coarsened, resulting in fewer and larger dispersoids regardless of heat input. After irradiation, the dispersoid behavior in the welded material was sensitive to temperature, exhibiting growth behavior attributed to Ostwald coarsening at 500 °C but a mixture of nucleation and more muted growth at 400 and 450 °C, attributed to competing mechanisms of radiation-enhanced diffusion and Ostwald coarsening. Void swelling correlated to heat input; being more prevalent in the welded conditions occurring at lower doses and in higher values relative to the base material. The low values of swelling despite microstructure coarsening caused by welding demonstrate the excellent swelling resistance of MA956, even after welding with the highest swelling values of 0.5% noted in the stir zone high heat input condition at 450 °C, 200 dpa. The dislocation behavior was inconsistent: the strongest trend was that network density was higher for welded versus base material, and an increase in loop diameter with temperature was observed. A rate theory model based on the observed microstructure suggests at high temperature interstitial loss to sinks was more likely to be dominant compared to mutual annihilation via point defect recombination, because of an increase of the radiation diffusion coefficient with temperature regardless of initial welded microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

MOOSE Reactor Module: An Open-Source Capability for Meshing Nuclear Reactor Geometries

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has developed numerous physics solvers utilizing the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework for multiphysics reactor analysis. These solvers require input finite element meshes representing the discretized spatial domain. Typically, reactor analysts turn to licensed tools for the creation of reactor geometry meshes. Recently, open-source functionality has been added to the MOOSE framework to mesh common reactor geometries and improve MOOSE-based nuclear reactor application user workflows. The new functionality is primarily contained in the new Reactor module of MOOSE and includes support for hexagonal pins, assemblies, and cores, extended Cartesian geometry support, options for modeling static and rotating control drums within a hexagonal assembly, core periphery triangulation, and automatic tagging of pin, assembly, plane, and depletion regions for easier post processing of physics results. A set of reactor geometry mesh builder objects further streamlines the construction of hexagonal and Cartesian cores and allows mapping of materials to regions during mesh generation. The meshes produced with the MOOSE Reactor module may be used directly within MOOSE-based applications or exported as Exodus II files for use in other finite element solvers. The tools have been demonstrated and verified using a variety of NEAMS physics solvers on a range of reactor applications, including a sodium-cooled fast reactor core analysis using Griffin, a fast reactor assembly thermal deformation analysis using MOOSE Tensor Mechanics, and a heat pipe–cooled microreactor coupled analysis using Griffin, Bison, and Sockeye. MOOSE’s Reactor module provides significant advantages compared to the use of external meshing tools when analyzing Cartesian and hexagonal reactor lattices using MOOSE-based applications: immediate accessibility (open-source) to the end user, low barrier to entry for new users, speed of mesh generation, volume preservation of meshed fuel pins, and simplification of analysis workflow when used in conjunction with MOOSE-based applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗