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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Do Better Satellite Precipitation Algorithms Improve Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Satellites make it possible to estimate precipitation in near real time. Given the challenges of achieving global coverage by other means, these data are used widely. However, few systems for landslide hazard assessment rely on satellite precipitation estimates. This could be due in part to perceptions of accuracy, although latency, spatial resolution, and other factors may also be important. We test whether recent changes to data streams from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) have improved its potential for use in landslide prediction. Specifically, we examine data produced by the Integrated Multi-satellitERetrievals for the GPM (IMERG) algorithm, which was upgraded to version 7 this year. IMERG relies upon other algorithms, including the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) and the GPM Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Many changes have been made during the switch from IMERG version 6 to version 7. These include upgrading CORRA and GPROF to version 7, to improve the accuracy of precipitation in frozen, mountainous, and coastal areas. The measured intensity of some storms has been enhanced with a new algorithm, the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood. Combined with many others, these changes to IMERG should improve its utility for landslide hazard assessment in a variety of contexts. To test this idea, we retrain the global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model twice—first with data from IMERG version 6B and second with 7B. Since current daily rainfall is the most important variable in determining outcomes predicted by LHASA, it should reflect changes made to that input. First, we grid the landslides at a daily, thirty-arcsecond resolution. This serves as the response variable. At each of these sites current and antecedent rainfall are extracted, along with antecedent snow mass and soil moisture, slope, and PGA. In addition, one million grid cells are selected at random points to represent conditions under which landslides (probably) do not occur. After merging these data, we hold back 20% of the dataset for validation purposes and train a machine-learning model with the rest. We assess both the model’s overall ability to identify landslides and its ability to predict specific large landslide disasters.

Thomas A Stanley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Disparate Measures of Metabolic Rate During Simulated Spacewalks

Scientists from NASA's Extravehicular Activities (EVA) Physiology Systems and Performance Project help design space suits for future missions, during which astronauts are expected to perform EVA activities on the Lunar or Martian surface. During an EVA, an astronaut's integrated metabolic rate is used to predict how much longer the activity can continue and still provide a safe margin of remaining consumables. For EVAs in the Apollo era, NASA physicians monitored live data feeds of heart rate, O 2 consumption, and liquid cooled garment (LCG) temperatures, which were subjectively combined or compared to produce an estimate of metabolic rate. But these multiple data feeds sometimes provided conflicting estimates of metabolic rate, making real-time calculations of remaining time difficult for physician/monitors. Currently, designs planned for the Constellation Program EVAs utilize an automated, but largely heuristic methodology for incorporating the above three measurements, plus an additional one - CO 2 production, ignoring data that appears in conflict; however a more rigorous model-based approach is desirable. In this study, we show how principal axis factor analysis, in combination with OLS regression and LOWESS smoothing can be used to estimate metabolic rate as a data-driven weighted average of heart rate, O 2 consumption, LCG temperature data, and CO 2 production. Preliminary results suggest less sensitivity to occasional spikes in observed data feeds, and reasonable within-subject reproducibility when applied to subsequent tasks. These methods do not require physician monitoring and as such can be automated in the electronic components of future space suits. With additional validation, our models show promise for increasing astronaut safety, while reducing the need for and potential errors associated with human monitoring of multiple systems.

Alan H Feiveson↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Aerodynamic results of a separation effects test on a 0.01-scale model (52-OTS) of integrated SSV in the AEDC/VKF 40-by-40 inch supersonic wind tunnel A, volume 1

Experimental aerodynamic investigations were conducted, during the period July 18-19, 1974, in the AEDC/VKF Tunnel A facility on a 0.01-scale model (52-OTS) of the integrated space shuttle vehicle, including only one SRB. The purpose of the investigation was to obtain data for close-in proximity (SRB to orbiter/tank) effects with the orbiter/tank combination at relatively high alpha and beta attitudes, and with the SRB separation motors off. The AEDC Captive Trajectory System (CTS), which supported the SRB, was used in conjunction with the tunnel primary sector (supporting the orbiter/tank) to obtain grid type separation effects data. The one symmetrical SRB model was used interchangeably to obtain both right-hand and left-hand SRB data. Free-stream data were also obtained for the orbiter/tank and for the SRB. This data was used to provide baselines for proximity effects. The entire investigation was conducted at a free-stream Mach number of 4.5 with unit Reynolds number ranging from 4.0 to 6.5 million per foot.

Campbell, J. H., II↗
NASA NTRS1988

Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

Keeley, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission: Systems Engineering Challenges on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission

MRO project is a system of systems requiring system engineering team to architect, design, integrate, test, and operate these systems at each level of the project. The challenge of system engineering mission objectives into a single mission architecture that can be integrated tested, launched, and operated. Systems engineering must translate high-level requirements into integrated mission design. Systems engineering challenges were overcome utilizing a combination by creative designs built into MRO's flight and ground systems: a) Design of sophisticated spacecraft targeting and data management capabilities b) Establishment of a strong operations team organization; c) Implementation of robust operational processes; and d) Development of strategic ground tools. The MRO system has met the challenge of its driving requirements: a) MRO began its two-year primary science phase on November 7, 2006, and by July 2007, met it minimum requirement to collect 15 Tbits of data after only eight months of operations. Currently we have collected 22 Tbits. b) Based on current performance, mission data return could return 70 Tbits of data by the end of the primary science phase in 2008.

systems engineering↗
NASA NTRS2013

Compute Element and Interface Box for the Hazard Detection System

The Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) program is building a sensor that enables a spacecraft to evaluate autonomously a potential landing area to generate a list of hazardous and safe landing sites. It will also provide navigation inputs relative to those safe sites. The Hazard Detection System Compute Element (HDS-CE) box combines a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) board for sensor integration and timing, with a multicore computer board for processing. The FPGA does system-level timing and data aggregation, and acts as a go-between, removing the real-time requirements from the processor and labeling events with a high resolution time. The processor manages the behavior of the system, controls the instruments connected to the HDS-CE, and services the "heavy lifting" computational requirements for analyzing the potential landing spots.

Villalpando, Carlos Y.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Direct Measurement of Dust Attenuation in z approx. 1.5 Star-Forming Galaxies from 3D-HST: Implications for Dust Geometry and Star Formation Rates

The nature of dust in distant galaxies is not well understood, and until recently few direct dust measurements have been possible. We investigate dust in distant star-forming galaxies using near-infrared grism spectra of the 3D-HST survey combined with archival multi-wavelength photometry. These data allow us to make a direct comparison between dust towards star-forming regions (measured using Balmer decrements) and the integrated dust properties (derived by comparing spectral energy distributions [SEDs] with stellar population and dust models) for a statistically significant sample of distant galaxies. We select a sample of 163 galaxies between 1.36< or = z< or = 1.5 with H(alpha) SNR > or = 5 and measure Balmer decrements from stacked spectra. First, we stack spectra in bins of integrated stellar dust attenuation, and find that there is extra dust extinction towards star-forming regions (AV,HII is 1.81 times the integrated AV, star), though slightly lower than found for low-redshift starburst galaxies. Next, we stack spectra in bins of specific star formation rate (log sSFR), star formation rate (log SFR), and stellar mass (logM∗). We find that on average AV,HII increases with SFR and mass, but decreases with increasing sSFR. The amount of extra extinction also decreases with increasing sSFR and decreasing stellar mass. Our results are consistent with the two-phase dust model - in which galaxies contain both a diffuse and a stellar birth cloud dust component - as the extra extinction will increase once older stars outside the star-forming regions become more dominant. Finally, using our Balmer decrements we derive dust-corrected H(alpha) SFRs, and find evidence that SED fitting produces incorrect SFRs if very rapidly declining SFHs are included in the explored parameter space. Subject headings: dust, extinction- galaxies: evolution- galaxies: high-redshift

Direct↗
NASA NTRS2013

GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

Precise Point Positioning (PPP)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mapping Pine Plantations in the Southeastern U.S. Using Structural, Spectral, and Temporal Remote Sensing Data

The southeastern U.S. produces the most industrial roundwood in the U.S. each year, largely from commercial pine plantations. The extent of plantation forests and management dynamics can be difficult to ascertain from periodic forest inventories, yet short-rotation tree plantations also present challenges for remote sensing. Here, we integrated spectral, temporal, and structural information from airborne and satellite platforms to distinguish pine plantations from natural forests and evaluate the contribution from planted forests to regional forest coverin the southeastern U.S. Within flight lines from NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, lidar metrics of forest structure had the highest overall accuracy for pine plantations among single-source classifications (90%), but the combination of spectral and temporal metrics from Landsat generated comparable accuracy (91%). Combined structural, temporal, and spectral information from G-LiHT and Landsat had the highest accuracy for plantations (92%) and natural forests (88%). At a regional scale, classifications using Landsat spectral and temporal metrics had between 74 and 82% mean class accuracy for plantations.Regionally, plantations accounted for 28% of forest cover in the southeastern U.S., a result similar to plot-based estimates, albeit with greater spatial detail. Regional maps of plantation forests differed from existing map products, including the National Land Cover Database. Combining plantation extent in 2011 with Landsat based forest change data identified strong regional gradients in plantation dynamics since 1985, with distinct spatial patterns of rotation age (east-west) and plantation expansion (interior). Our analysis demonstrates the potential to improve the characterization of dynamic land cover classes, including economically important timber plantations, by integrating diverse remote sensing datasets. Critically, multi-source remote sensing provides an approach to leverage periodic forest inventory data for annual monitoring of managed forest landscapes.

Fagan, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ground Data System Risk Mitigation Techniques for Faster, Better, Cheaper Missions

With the advent of faster, cheaper, and better missions, NASA Projects acknowledged that a higher level of risk was inherent and accepted with this approach. It was incumbent however upon each component of the Project whether spacecraft, payload, launch vehicle, or ground data system to ensure that the mission would nevertheless be an unqualified success. The Small Explorer (SMEX) program's ground data system (GDS) team developed risk mitigation techniques to achieve these goals starting in 1989. These techniques have evolved through the SMEX series of missions and are practiced today under the Triana program. These techniques are: (1) Mission Team Organization--empowerment of a closeknit ground data system team comprising system engineering, software engineering, testing, and flight operations personnel; (2) Common Spacecraft Test and Operational Control System--utilization of the pre-launch spacecraft integration system as the post-launch ground data system on-orbit command and control system; (3) Utilization of operations personnel in pre-launch testing--making the flight operations team an integrated member of the spacecraft testing activities at the beginning of the spacecraft fabrication phase; (4) Consolidated Test Team--combined system, mission readiness and operations testing to optimize test opportunities with the ground system and spacecraft; and (5). Reuse of Spacecraft, Systems and People--reuse of people, software and on-orbit spacecraft throughout the SMEX mission series. The SMEX ground system development approach for faster, cheaper, better missions has been very successful. This paper will discuss these risk management techniques in the areas of ground data system design, implementation, test, and operational readiness.

Catena, John J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Robust Informatics Infrastructure Required For ICME: Combining Virtual and Experimental Data

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for robust automated materials information management system(s) enabling sophisticated data mining tools is increasing, as evidenced by the emphasis on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) and the recent establishment of the Materials Genome Initiative (MGI). This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Further, the use of increasingly sophisticated nonlinear, anisotropic and or multi-scale models requires both the processing of large volumes of test data and complex materials data necessary to establish processing-microstructure-property-performance relationships. Fortunately, material information management systems have kept pace with the growing user demands and evolved to enable: (i) the capture of both point wise data and full spectra of raw data curves, (ii) data management functions such as access, version, and quality controls;(iii) a wide range of data import, export and analysis capabilities; (iv) data pedigree traceability mechanisms; (v) data searching, reporting and viewing tools; and (vi) access to the information via a wide range of interfaces. This paper discusses key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the connections at various length scales to be made between experimental data and corresponding multiscale modeling toolsets to enable ICME. In particular, NASA Glenn's efforts towards establishing such a database for capturing constitutive modeling behavior for both monolithic and composites materials

Mutli-scale models↗
NASA NTRS2006

Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks

Genetic and evolutionary algorithms have been applied to solve numerous problems in engineering design where they have been used primarily as optimization procedures. These methods have an advantage over conventional gradient-based search procedures became they are capable of finding global optima of multi-modal functions and searching design spaces with disjoint feasible regions. They are also robust in the presence of noisy data. Another desirable feature of these methods is that they can efficiently use distributed and parallel computing resources since multiple function evaluations (flow simulations in aerodynamics design) can be performed simultaneously and independently on ultiple processors. For these reasons genetic and evolutionary algorithms are being used more frequently in design optimization. Examples include airfoil and wing design and compressor and turbine airfoil design. They are also finding increasing use in multiple-objective and multidisciplinary optimization. This lecture will focus on an evolutionary method that is a relatively new member to the general class of evolutionary methods called differential evolution (DE). This method is easy to use and program and it requires relatively few user-specified constants. These constants are easily determined for a wide class of problems. Fine-tuning the constants will off course yield the solution to the optimization problem at hand more rapidly. DE can be efficiently implemented on parallel computers and can be used for continuous, discrete and mixed discrete/continuous optimization problems. It does not require the objective function to be continuous and is noise tolerant. DE and applications to single and multiple-objective optimization will be included in the presentation and lecture notes. A method for aerodynamic design optimization that is based on neural networks will also be included as a part of this lecture. The method offers advantages over traditional optimization methods. It is more flexible than other methods in dealing with design in the context of both steady and unsteady flows, partial and complete data sets, combined experimental and numerical data, inclusion of various constraints and rules of thumb, and other issues that characterize the aerodynamic design process. Neural networks provide a natural framework within which a succession of numerical solutions of increasing fidelity, incorporating more realistic flow physics, can be represented and utilized for optimization. Neural networks also offer an excellent framework for multiple-objective and multi-disciplinary design optimization. Simulation tools from various disciplines can be integrated within this framework and rapid trade-off studies involving one or many disciplines can be performed. The prospect of combining neural network based optimization methods and evolutionary algorithms to obtain a hybrid method with the best properties of both methods will be included in this presentation. Achieving solution diversity and accurate convergence to the exact Pareto front in multiple objective optimization usually requires a significant computational effort with evolutionary algorithms. In this lecture we will also explore the possibility of using neural networks to obtain estimates of the Pareto optimal front using non-dominated solutions generated by DE as training data. Neural network estimators have the potential advantage of reducing the number of function evaluations required to obtain solution accuracy and diversity, thus reducing cost to design.

Rai, Man Mohan↗
NASA NTRS1980

A clear-sky spectral solar radiation model for snow-covered mountainous terrain

A clear-sky spectral solar radiation model for direct and diffuse fluxes, combined with topographic calculations from digital terrain data, computes either incident, net, or reflected solar radiation at any point on a snow surface in mountainous terrain. The radiation may be integrated over any wavelength range from 250 to 5000 nm, or over any time step. Atmospheric attenuation parameters are ozone, water vapor, the Angstrom turbidity coefficient and exponent, and the absorptance to reflectance ratio of the atmospheric aerosols. The model derives these, from measurements which may contain both systematic and random errors, by finding the least squares solution to an overdetermined set of nonlinear equations. For calculations over a specified area, it employs table look-up procedures, so that computation speed for the spectral model approaches that for a lumped model. Thus it may be useful as part of a snow surface energy budget calculation over a drainage basin.

Dozier, J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Efficient and accurate computation of the incomplete Airy functions

The incomplete Airy integrals serve as canonical functions for the uniform ray optical solutions to several high-frequency scattering and diffraction problems that involve a class of integrals characterized by two stationary points that are arbitrarily close to one another or to an integration endpoint. Integrals with such analytical properties describe transition region phenomena associated with composite shadow boundaries. An efficient and accurate method for computing the incomplete Airy functions would make the solutions to such problems useful for engineering purposes. In this paper a convergent series solution for the incomplete Airy functions is derived. Asymptotic expansions involving several terms are also developed and serve as large argument approximations. The combination of the series solution with the asymptotic formulae provides for an efficient and accurate computation of the incomplete Airy functions. Validation of accuracy is accomplished using direct numerical integration data.

Constantinides, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Martian Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE)

Space radiation presents a very serious hazard to crews of interplanetary human missions. The two sources of this radiation are the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The GCR provides a steady source of low dose rate radiation that is primarily responsible for stochastic effects, such as cancer, and can effect the response of the central nervous system. Nuclear interactions of these components with the Martian atmosphere produces substantial flux of neutrons with high Radio Biological Effectiveness. The uncertainty in the knowledge of many fragmentation cross sections and their energy dependence required by radiation transport codes, uncertainties in the ambient radiation environment, and knowledge of the Martian atmosphere, lead to large enough uncertainties in the knowledge of calculated radiation dose in both free space (cruise phase), in Martian orbit, and on Martian surface. Direct measurements of radiation levels, the relative contributions of protons, neutrons, and heavy ions, and Martian atmospheric characteristics is thus a prerequisite for any human mission. An integrated suite of two spectrometers to provide these data will be described. The Orbiter spectrometer will measure the energy spectrum of SEP events from 15 to 500 MeV/n, and when combined with data from other space based instruments, such as the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), would provide accurate GCR spectra also. The Lander spectrometer would measure the absorbed dose rate, dose equivalent dose rate, and the linear energy transfer (LET) spectra and is capable of separating the relative contribution of these quantities from protons, neutrons, and high Z particles. There are two separate flight instruments, one for the Orbiter and one for the Lander, based on a common design of the backplane, the central processing unit (CPU), power supply, and onboard data storage. The Orbiter instrument consists of an energetic particle spectrometer that can measure the elemental energy spectra of charged particles over energy range of 15-500 MeV/n. The spectrometer will be mounted on the science deck and has an angular acceptance of 50 degrees. As the spacecraft orbits Mars, the axis of this field of view sweeps a cone of directions on the sky. During each orbit, the angle between the axis of the spectrometer's field of view and the mean interplanetary field direction varies from 90 degrees to 180 degrees. The Lander instrument is designed: (1) to measure the accumulated absorbed dose and dose rate in tissue as a function of time, (2) to determine the radiation quality factor, (3) to determine the energy deposition spectrum from 0.1 keV/micron to 1500 keV/micron, and (4) to separate the contribution of protons, neutrons, and HZE particles to these quantities.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Current Applications of OMI Tropospheric NO2 Data for Air Quality and a Look to the Future

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Tropospheric NO2 products are being used to enhance the ability to monitor changes in NO2 air quality, update emission inventories, and evaluate regional air quality models. Trends in tropospheric column NO2 have been examined over the eastern United States in relation to emissions changes mandated by regulatory actions. Decreases of 20 to 40 percent over the period 2005 to 2008 were noted, largely in response to major emission reductions at power plants. The OMI data have been used to identify regions in which the opposite trend has been found. We have also used OMI NO2 in efforts to improve emission inventories for NOx emissions from soil. Lightning NOx emissions have been added to CMAQ, the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional air quality model. Evaluation of the resulting NO2 columns in the model is being conducted using the OMI NO2 observations. Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) together with the OMI NO2 data comprise a valuable tool for monitoring and predicting air quality. Looking to the future, we expect that the combination of Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) (morning) and OMI (afternoon) data sets obtained through use of the same retrieval algorithms will substantially increase the possibility of successful integration of satellite information into regional air quality forecast models. Farther down the road, we anticipate the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) platform to supply data possibly on an hourly basis, allowing much more comprehensive analysis of air quality from space.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Creation of a Rapid High-Fidelity Aerodynamics Module for a Multidisciplinary Design Environment

In the traditional aerospace vehicle design process, each successive design phase is accompanied by an increment in the modeling fidelity of the disciplinary analyses being performed. This trend follows a corresponding shrinking of the design space as more and more design decisions are locked in. The correlated increase in knowledge about the design and decrease in design freedom occurs partly because increases in modeling fidelity are usually accompanied by significant increases in the computational expense of performing the analyses. When running high fidelity analyses, it is not usually feasible to explore a large number of variations, and so design space exploration is reserved for conceptual design, and higher fidelity analyses are run only once a specific point design has been selected to carry forward. The designs produced by this traditional process have been recognized as being limited by the uncertainty that is present early on due to the use of lower fidelity analyses. For example, uncertainty in aerodynamics predictions produces uncertainty in trajectory optimization, which can impact overall vehicle sizing. This effect can become more significant when trajectories are being shaped by active constraints. For example, if an optimal trajectory is running up against a normal load factor constraint, inaccuracies in the aerodynamic coefficient predictions can cause a feasible trajectory to be considered infeasible, or vice versa. For this reason, a trade must always be performed between the desired fidelity and the resources available. Apart from this trade between fidelity and computational expense, it is very desirable to use higher fidelity analyses earlier in the design process. A large body of work has been performed to this end, led by efforts in the area of surrogate modeling. In surrogate modeling, an up-front investment is made by running a high fidelity code over a Design of Experiments (DOE); once completed, the DOE data is used to create a surrogate model, which captures the relationships between input variables and responses into regression equations. Depending on the dimensionality of the problem and the fidelity of the code for which a surrogate model is being created, the initial DOE can itself be computationally prohibitive to run. Cokriging, a modeling approach from the field of geostatistics, provides a desirable compromise between computational expense and fidelity. To do this, cokriging leverages a large body of data generated by a low fidelity analysis, combines it with a smaller set of data from a higher fidelity analysis, and creates a kriging surrogate model with prediction fidelity approaching that of the higher fidelity analysis. When integrated into a multidisciplinary environment, a disciplinary analysis module employing cokriging can raise the analysis fidelity without drastically impacting the expense of design iterations. This is demonstrated through the creation of an aerodynamics analysis module in NASA’s OpenMDAO framework. Aerodynamic analyses including Missile DATCOM, APAS, and USM3D are leveraged to create high fidelity aerodynamics decks for parametric vehicle geometries, which are created in NASA’s Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP). Several trade studies are performed to examine the achieved level of model fidelity, and the overall impact to vehicle design is quantified.

Aerodynamic Properties↗