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NASA NTRS2005

Identification of atypical flight patterns

Method and system for analyzing aircraft data, including multiple selected flight parameters for a selected phase of a selected flight, and for determining when the selected phase of the selected flight is atypical, when compared with corresponding data for the same phase for other similar flights. A flight signature is computed using continuous-valued and discrete-valued flight parameters for the selected flight parameters and is optionally compared with a statistical distribution of other observed flight signatures, yielding atypicality scores for the same phase for other similar flights. A cluster analysis is optionally applied to the flight signatures to define an optimal collection of clusters. A level of atypicality for a selected flight is estimated, based upon an index associated with the cluster analysis.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multiscale Studies of the Three-Dimensional Dayside X-Line

We review recent experience from the Cluster, Double Star, and THEMIS missions for lessons that apply to the upcoming Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) being developed for launch in 2014. On global scales, simulation and statistical studies lead to mean congurations of dayside reconnection, implying specific relative alignments of the inflow magnetic fields and X-line, with implications for MMS operations designed to maximize the number of close encounters with the diffusion region. At intermediate MHD-to-ion scales, reconstruction of features created by one or two X-lines have developed to the point where data from a cluster of spacecraft can determine their temporal trends and the approximate three-dimensional X-line structure. Recent petascale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of reconnection encompass three spatial dimensions with excellent resolution, and make striking predictions of electron scale physics that creates complex interacting flux ropes under component reconnection. High time resolution measurements from MMS will determine the detailed electron scale kinetics embedded within the global and MHDion scale contexts. These developments will lead to the refinement of our three-dimensional multiscale picture of reconnection, yielding improved understanding of the global, MHD, and local physics controlling the onset or quenching, variability, and mean rate of reconnection. This in turn will enable improved predictability of the structural features created by transient reconnection, and their space weather consequences.

Reconnection↗

NASA NTRS1978

The CLASSY clustering algorithm: Description, evaluation, and comparison with the iterative self-organizing clustering system (ISOCLS)

A clustering method, CLASSY, was developed, which alternates maximum likelihood iteration with a procedure for splitting, combining, and eliminating the resulting statistics. The method maximizes the fit of a mixture of normal distributions to the observed first through fourth central moments of the data and produces an estimate of the proportions, means, and covariances in this mixture. The mathematical model which is the basic for CLASSY and the actual operation of the algorithm is described. Data comparing the performances of CLASSY and ISOCLS on simulated and actual LACIE data are presented.

Lennington, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A cosmological redshift-distance square law

This paper directly examines the claims of Segal (1976) that the (m,z) Hubble diagram is fitted best by a square law z = Kr-squared rather than by the traditional Hubble law z = Hr in the low-redshift range, z no more than about 0.01, corresponding to galaxies brighter than 14th mag. Segal attempts to fit a distance relation to the (m,z) scatter diagram in which each individual galaxy is plotted. The exact relation between the mean redshift for all galaxies in a small magnitude interval and the apparent magnitude is calculated. This relation is independent of luminosity function and peculiar velocity distribution about the general expansion, and is not affected by sample incompleteness as a function of apparent magnitude or the clustering of galaxies in the sample. Segal's method is affected by all of these and requires a highly sophisticated statistical analysis to deal with the non-Gaussian pointwise scatter. The present analysis favors the Hubble law and conclusively rules out the square law for the small redshift region.

Soneira, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Coronal mass ejection recurrence studies indicating global activity and local suppression

The distribution of time intervals between successive coronal mass ejection events observed from the SMM and Skylab coronagraphs has been analyzed. Histograms of such recurrence times show that mass ejections tend to cluster in periods of activity. Evidence is found for simultaneous activity on a global scale. A second result is that, statistically, limb regions within + or - 59 deg position angle of a mass ejection show a marked absence of subsequent observable ejections for approximately 10 h. Flares of importance greater than or equal to 1 show no such deficit; however, large disparitons brusques tend similarly to be suppressed, for 24 h. This result, together with the closer association of mass ejection with eruptive prominences rather than with flares and the realization that eruptive prominences are rarely if ever seen without an accompanying mass ejection, obviates suggestions that magnetohydrodynamic conditions in the outflow following the earlier mass ejection hide subsequent coronal events.

Wagner, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Tests of two convection theories for red giant and red supergiant envelopes

Two theories of stellar envelope convection are considered here in the context of red giants and red supergiants of intermediate to high mass: Boehm-Vitense's standard mixing-length theory (MLT) and Canuto & Mazzitelli's new theory incorporating the full spectrum of turbulence (FST). Both theories assume incompressible convection. Two formulations of the convective mixing length are also evaluated: l proportional to the local pressure scale height (H(sub P)) and l proportional to the distance from the upper boundary of the convection zone (z). Applications to test both theories are made by calculating stellar evolutionary sequences into the red zone (z). Applications to test both theories are made by calculating stellar evolutionary sequences into the red phase of core helium burning. Since the theoretically predicted effective temperatures for cool stars are known to be sensitive to the assigned value of the mixing length, this quantity has been individually calibrated for each evolutionary sequence. The calibration is done in a composite Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for the red giant and red supergiant members of well-observed Galactic open clusters. The MLT model requires the constant of proportionality for the convective mixing length to vary by a small but statistically significant amount with stellar mass, whereas the FST model succeeds in all cases with the mixing lenghth simply set equal to z. The structure of the deep stellar interior, however, remains very nearly unaffected by the choices of convection theory and mixing lenghth. Inside the convective envelope itself, a density inversion always occurs, but is somewhat smaller for the convectively more efficient MLT model. On physical grounds the FST model is preferable, and seems to alleviate the problem of finding the proper mixing length.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Radiation breakage of DNA: a model based on random-walk chromatin structure

Monte Carlo computer software, called DNAbreak, has recently been developed to analyze observed non-random clustering of DNA double strand breaks in chromatin after exposure to densely ionizing radiation. The software models coarse-grained configurations of chromatin and radiation tracks, small-scale details being suppressed in order to obtain statistical results for larger scales, up to the size of a whole chromosome. We here give an analytic counterpart of the numerical model, useful for benchmarks, for elucidating the numerical results, for analyzing the assumptions of a more general but less mechanistic "randomly-located-clusters" formalism, and, potentially, for speeding up the calculations. The equations characterize multi-track DNA fragment-size distributions in terms of one-track action; an important step in extrapolating high-dose laboratory results to the much lower doses of main interest in environmental or occupational risk estimation. The approach can utilize the experimental information on DNA fragment-size distributions to draw inferences about large-scale chromatin geometry during cell-cycle interphase.

Chromatin/radiation effects↗

NASA NTRS2005

Identification of a typical flight patterns

Method and system for analyzing aircraft data, including multiple selected flight parameters for a selected phase of a selected flight, and for determining when the selected phase of the selected flight is atypical, when compared with corresponding data for the same phase for other similar flights. A flight signature is computed using continuous- valued and discrete-valued flight parameters for the selected flight parameters and is optionally compared with a statistical distribution of other observed flight signatures, yielding a typicality scores for the same phase for other similar flights. A cluster analysis is optionally applied to the flight signatures to define an optimal collection of clusters. A level of atypicality for a selected flight is estimated, based upon an index associated with the cluster analysis.

Irving C Statler↗

NASA NTRS2010

Acceleration of Magnetospheric Relativistic Electrons by Ultra-Low Frequency Waves: A Comparison between Two Cases Observed by Cluster and LANL Satellites

Understanding the origin and acceleration of magnetospheric relativistic electrons (MREs) in the Earth's radiation belt during geomagnetic storms is an important subject and yet one of outstanding questions in space physics. It has been statistically suggested that during geomagnetic storms, ultra-low-frequency (ULF) Pc-5 wave activities in the magnetosphere are correlated with order of magnitude increase of MRE fluxes in the outer radiation belt. Yet, physical and observational understandings of resonant interactions between ULF waves and MREs remain minimum. In this paper, we show two events during storms on September 25, 2001 and November 25, 2001, the solar wind speeds in both cases were > 500 km/s while Cluster observations indicate presence of strong ULF waves in the magnetosphere at noon and dusk, respectively, during a approx. 3-hour period. MRE observations by the Los Alamos (LANL) spacecraft show a quadrupling of 1.1-1.5 MeV electron fluxes in the September 25, 2001 event, but only a negligible increase in the November 2.5, 2001 event. We present a detailed comparison between these two events. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of MRE acceleration during the September 25, 2001 event can be attributed to the compressional wave mode with strong ULF wave activities and the physical origin of MRE acceleration depends more on the distribution of toroidal and poloidal ULF waves in the outer radiation belt.

Shao, X.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRS2014

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

weather↗

NASA NTRS1994

Clumped X-ray emission around radio galaxies in Abell clusters

We have made a comparison of the X-ray and radio morphologies for a sample of 41 rich cluster fields using Einstein Observatory Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) and Very Large Array (VLA) 20 cm images. Surprisingly, we find that 75% of the radio galaxies have a statistically significant X-ray peak or subclump within 5 min of the radio galaxy position. The X-ray luminosity and the generally extended nature of the X-ray subclumps suggest that these subclumps are overdense regions emitting free-free radiation, although there is also evidence for Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) X-ray emission coming from some of the more compact, high surface brightness X-ray peaks. Some interesting correlations with radio morphology were also discovered. For clusters which contain wide-angle-tailed radio sources associated with centrally dominant galaxies, there are significant elongations or clumps in the central X-ray emission which are unusual for this type of cluster. We suggest that cluster radio galaxies are pointers to particular clusters or regions within clusters that have recently undergone mergers between cluster subsystems.

Burns, Jack O.↗

NASA NTRS2016

ERRATUM: 'MAPPING THE GAS TURBULENCE IN THE COMA CLUSTER: PREDICTIONS FOR ASTRO-H'

The published version of this paper contained an error in Figure 5. This figure is intended to show the effect on the structure function of subtracting the bias induced by the statistical and systematic errors on the line shift. The filled circles show the bias-subtracted structure function. The positions of these points in the left panel of the original figure were calculated incorrectly. The figure is reproduced below (with the original caption) with the correct values for the bias-subtracted structure function. No other computations or figures in the original manuscript are affected.

galaxies: clusters: intracluster medium- methods: ↗

NASA NTRS1990

The application of optical potentials for reactive scattering - A case study

A precise method is presented for measuring decay fractions of metastable cluster ions with corrections concerning instrumental artifacts and ion trajectory of parents and daughters. Experimental data are used to derive the Gspann parameter and heat capacity of clusters as described in Klots' evaporative ensemble model. The model is applied to obtain binding energies of ammonia cluster ions. The deduced binding energy values are in very good agreement with both thermochemical data and Engelking's (1986) modified statistical theory.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1992

Extragalactic counterparts to Einstein slew survey sources

The Einstein slew survey consists of 819 bright X-ray sources, of which 636 (or 78 percent) are identified with counterparts in standard catalogs. The importance of bright X-ray surveys is stressed, and the slew survey is compared to the Rosat all sky survey. Statistical techniques for minimizing confusion in arcminute error circles in digitized data are discussed. The 238 slew survey active galactic nuclei, clusters, and BL Lacertae objects identified to date and their implications for logN-logS and source evolution studies are described.

Schachter, Jonathan F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The forest and the trees

Comments on the nature of cometary nuclei, some problems regarding cometary origin, and some correlations among cometary data are presented. Comparisons with an earlier report on cometary nuclei are noted, and most of the earlier advances in concept are substantiated. The mean density of the Halley nucleus may have been underestimated, while the nature of the rotation remains uncertain. The dust/gas ratio apparently needs to be increased by as much as two times, perhaps to unity or higher. CHON grains appear to be important sources of gas. Evidence is presented to support the thesis that aging among long-period comets increases statistically as the periods decrease. Data on the orientation of cometary axes with respect to the Galaxy and the properties of clusters defined by these axes are presented.

Whipple, Fred L.↗