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DOE OSTI2024

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

What's New in the NSRDB

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides solar resource data across the globe at a high temporal and spatial resolution. This data is primarily used in solar energy modeling. The NSRDB is updated annually for the United States and North, Central and South America and the data is currently available from 1998-2021. In 2022 the NSRDB was updated using the latest version of the underlying Physical Solar Model (PSM). This update includes improved surface albedo and gap-filling of cloud properties. The inclusion of these updates reduced the uncertainty in the data compared to previous versions of the NSRDB. The Himawari and Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC) satellites were added to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and made our coverage global. While standard data from the GOES continues to be served at an hourly 4km x 4km resolution, full resolution data has also been made available to the user. The NSRDB now contains over 200Tb of data with nearly 40Tb being added annually. We provide significant flexibility for data download depending on the amount of data required by the users. In this paper we provide an update on the current status on the NSRDB.

photovoltaic systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

NOAA PSL Microwave Radiometer Block Island / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous brightness temperature measurements at 35 channels observed with a microwave radiometer MP3000A operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory on the Block Island for WFIP3. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a sensor attached to the MWR housing. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

What drives daily precipitation over the central Amazon? Differences observed between wet and dry seasons

This study offers an alternative presentation regarding how diurnal precipitation is modulated by convective events that developed over the central Amazon during the preceding nighttime period. We use data collected during the Observations and Modelling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/2015) field campaign that took place from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015 in the central Amazon. Local surface-based observations of cloud occurrence, soil temperature, surface fluxes, and planetary boundary layer characteristics are coupled with satellite data to identify the physical mechanisms that control the diurnal rainfall in central Amazon during the wet and dry seasons. This is accomplished through evaluation of the atmospheric properties during the nocturnal periods preceding raining and non-raining events. Comparisons between these non-raining and raining transitions are presented for the wet (January to April) and dry (June to September) seasons. The results suggest that wet-season diurnal precipitation is modulated by nighttime cloud coverage and local influences such as heating induced turbulence, whereas the dry-season rain events are controlled by large-scale circulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Muon Smasher’s Guide

In this work, we lay out a comprehensive physics case for a future high-energy muon collider, exploring a range of collision energies (from 1 to 100 TeV) and luminosities. We highlight the advantages of such a collider over proposed alternatives. We show how one can leverage both the point-like nature of the muons themselves as well as the cloud of electroweak radiation that surrounds the beam to blur the dichotomy between energy and precision in the search for new physics. The physics case is buttressed by a range of studies with applications to electroweak symmetry breaking, dark matter, and the naturalness of the weak scale. Additionally, we make sharp connections with complementary experiments that are probing new physics effects using electric dipole moments, flavor violation, and gravitational waves. An extensive appendix provides cross section predictions as a function of the center-of-mass energy for many canonical simplified models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Machine Learning Inference with GPUs in ProtoDUNE Data Processing

Abstract We study the performance of a cloud-based GPU-accelerated inference server to speed up event reconstruction in neutrino data batch jobs. Using detector data from the ProtoDUNE experiment and employing the standard DUNE grid job submission tools, we attempt to reprocess the data by running several thousand concurrent grid jobs, a rate we expect to be typical of current and future neutrino physics experiments. We process most of the dataset with the GPU version of our processing algorithm and the remainder with the CPU version for timing comparisons. We find that a 100-GPU cloud-based server is able to easily meet the processing demand, and that using the GPU version of the event processing algorithm is two times faster than processing these data with the CPU version when comparing to the newest CPUs in our sample. The amount of data transferred to the inference server during the GPU runs can overwhelm even the highest-bandwidth network switches, however, unless care is taken to observe network facility limits or otherwise distribute the jobs to multiple sites. We discuss the lessons learned from this processing campaign and several avenues for future improvements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cepheids with giant companions: II. Spectroscopic confirmation of nine new double-lined binary systems composed of two Cepheids

Context.Binary Cepheids with giant companions are crucial for studying the physical properties of Cepheid variables, in particular providing the best means to measure their masses. Systems composed of two Cepheids are even more important, but to date, only one such system has been identified, in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Aims.Our current aim is to increase the number of these systems known tenfold and to provide their basic characteristics. The final goal is to obtain the physical properties of the component Cepheids, including their masses and radii, and to learn about their evolution in the multiple systems, also revealing their origin. Methods.We started a spectroscopic monitoring campaign of nine unresolved pairs of Cepheids from the OGLE catalog to check if they are gravitationally bound. Two of these so-called double Cepheids are located in the LMC, five are in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), and two are in the Milky Way (MW). Results.We report a spectroscopic detection of the binarity of all nine of these double Cepheids with orbital periods ranging from 2 to 18 years. This increases the number of known binary double (BIND) Cepheids from 1 to 10 and triples the number of all confirmed double-lined binary (SB2) Cepheids. For five BIND Cepheids, the disentangled pulsational light curves of the components show anti-correlated phase shifts due to orbital motion. We show the first empirical evidence that typical period–luminosity relations (PLRs) are rather binary Cepheid PLRs, as they include light of the companion. Conclusions.The statistics of pulsation period ratios of BIND Cepheids do not agree with those expected for pairs of Cepheids of the same age. These ratios together with the determined mass ratios far from unity suggest a merger origin of at least one component for about half of the systems. The SMC and MW objects are the first found in SB2 systems composed of giants in their host galaxies. The Milky Way BIND Cepheids are also the closest such systems, being located at about 11 and 26 kpc.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains (Final Report)

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cloud-based implementation of white-box model predictive control for a GEOTABS office building: A field test demonstration

Model predictive control (MPC) has been proven in simulations and pilot case studies to be a superior control strategy for large buildings. MPC can utilize the weather and occupancy schedule forecasts, together with the system model, to predict the future thermal behavior of the building and minimize the overall energy use and maximize thermal comfort. However, these advantages come with the cost of increased modeling effort, computational demands, communication infrastructure, and commissioning efforts. Thus a typical approach is to, often rapidly, simplify the building modeling and MPC optimization problem while paying a price of not reaching the full performance potential. It has been shown that by employing accurate physics-based models, MPC performance can be notably increased closer to its theoretical performance bound. However, implementation of such high-fidelity MPC in real buildings remains a challenge, resulting in a lack of successful field test studies. This work presents the methodology and field test demonstration of a computationally efficient implementation of the white-box MPC in an office building in Belgium. The detailed model of the building is based on first-principle physical equations. The deployment and supervision of MPC operation in a practical setting are supported by an automated cloud-based communication infrastructure. The motivating factor behind the cloud-based architecture is its compatibility with a commercially appealing control as a service concept. The building is equipped with a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and thermally activated building structures (TABS), where the combination of both is also known as GEOTABS. From a control perspective, GEOTABS buildings are particularly challenging systems due to large scale, complex heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system, and slow dynamics with time delays. On the other hand, there is an increased potential for energy savings due to the high thermal mass, which acts as thermal storage. The MPC operation is demonstrated during the challenging transient seasons (switching between heating and cooling), and its performance is compared to a traditional rule-based controller (RBC). We provide a proof of concept of real MPC operation for the most difficult seasons with notable GSHP energy use savings equal to 53.5% and thermal comfort improvement by 36.9%. Other MPC applications found in the literature describe tests for only cooling or only heating, and up to now only for a black-box or a grey-box approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase diagrams and microstructures of aqueous short alkyl chain polyethylene glycol ether carboxylate and carboxylic acid triblock surfactant solutions

The surfactant C 8 Eo 8 CH 2 COOH (Akypo LF2) and its salts have a small hydrophobic and a significantly longer hydrophilic part. As a consequence, there must be a significant steric constraint, once these surfactant molecules form micelles. In addition, the partially charged headgroups should bring some additional fine-tuning via electrostatic interactions to this "essentially non-ionic" surfactant. Experiments: Phase diagrams of binary mixtures of water and C 8 Eo 8 CH 2 COOH are established over large concentration and temperature ranges, also at different pHs and in the presence of sodium and calcium ions. Surface tensions and osmotic pressures are measured to understand the systems. To evaluate the microstructures, also Dynamic Light Scattering and Small-Angle X-ray Scattering are performed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the CAM6 Climate Model Using Cloud Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

A comparative analysis between observational data from McMurdo Station, Antarctica and the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) simulation is performed focusing on cloud characteristics and their thermodynamic conditions. Ka-band Zenith Radar (KAZR) and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) retrievals are used as the basis of cloud fraction and cloud phase identifications. Radiosondes released at 12-hour increments provide atmospheric profiles for evaluating the simulated thermodynamic conditions. Our findings show that the CAM6 simulation consistently overestimates (underestimates) cloud fraction above (below) 3 km in four seasons of a year. Normalized by total in-cloud samples, ice and mixed phase occurrence frequencies are underestimated and liquid phase frequency is overestimated by the model at cloud fractions above 0.6, while at cloud fractions below 0.6 ice phase frequency is overestimated and liquid-containing phase frequency is underestimated by the model. The cloud fraction biases are closely associated with concurrent biases in relative humidity (RH), i.e., high (low) RH biases above (below) 2 km. Frequencies of correctly simulating ice and liquid-containing phase increase when the absolute biases of RH decrease. Cloud fraction biases also show a positive correlation with RH biases. Water vapor mixing ratio biases are the primary contributor to RH biases, and hence, likely a key factor controlling the cloud biases. Finally, this diagnosis of the evident shortfalls of representations of cloud characteristics in CAM6 simulation at McMurdo Station brings new insight in improving the governing model physics therein.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Vorticity Description of the Nuclear Cloud

We describe a model of the nuclear cloud in terms of the vorticity field associated with a buoyant vortex ring. A series of physical approximations are introduced that lower computational costs and render the model amenable for operational use. The determination of model parameters from the yield and emplacement of the weapon is also discussed.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

CMDV (CM)4 Project - University of Washington contribution. Final report

The original goal of this project was to diagnose and improve CLUBB, the turbulence and cloud fraction parameterization used in DOE’s E3SM model. For this purpose, we planned to use large-eddy simulation (LES) and ARM observations from the NE Pacific Ocean and the SGP site, in coordination with ARM’s LASSO program. It was determined that for these cloud regimes, many of the turbulent ‘moment closures’ which underlie CLUBB’s mathematical formulation are inconsistent with LES, which is an appropriate benchmark for testing this. The research assistant found that these closures could be more accurately formulated using machine learning using the LES as a training dataset. However the resulting parameterization proved to quickly drift away from physical plausibility. A novel machine-learning based boundary layer parameterization called MARBLE based on matching the time evolution of a parameterized cloud-topped boundary layer to reanalysis was then developed and published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating cosmological evolution by quantum quench of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate

In cosmological evolution, it is the homogeneous scalar field (inflaton) that drives the universe to expand isotropically and to generate standard model particles. However, to simulate cosmology, atomic gas research has focused on the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) with continuously applied forces. In this paper we argue that a complementary approach needs also to be pursued; we thus consider the analog BEC experiments in a nondriven and naturally closed atomic system. We implement this using a BEC in an optical lattice which, after a quench, freely transitions from an unstable to a stable state. Furthermore, this dynamical evolution displays the counterpart “preheating,” “reheating,” and “thermalization” phases of cosmology. Importantly, our studies of these analog processes yield tractable analytic models. Additionally, of great utility to the cold atom community, such understanding elucidates the dynamics of nonadiabatic condensate preparation. Indeed, the dynamical processes discussed here are generic and in future cold atom reequilibration experiments it will be important to observe both the preheating stage, corresponding to a fragmented condensate, and the reheating stage, corresponding to a particle cloud.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗