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DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud water adjustments to aerosol perturbations are buffered by solar heating in non-precipitating marine stratocumuli

Abstract. Marine low-level clouds are key to the Earth's energy budget due to their expansive coverage over global oceans and their high reflectance of incoming solar radiation. Their responses to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations remain the largest source of uncertainty in estimating the anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate. A major challenge is the quantification of the cloud water response to aerosol perturbations. In particular, the presence of feedbacks through microphysical, dynamical, and thermodynamical pathways at various spatial and temporal scales could augment or weaken the response. Central to this problem is the temporal evolution in cloud adjustment, governed by entangled feedback mechanisms. We apply an innovative conditional Monte Carlo subsampling approach to a large ensemble of diurnal large-eddy simulation of non-precipitating marine stratocumulus to study the role of solar heating in governing the evolution in the relationship between droplet number and cloud water. We find a persistent negative trend in this relationship at night, confirming that the role of microphysically enhanced cloud-top entrainment. After sunrise, the evolution in this relationship appears buffered and converges to ∼-0.2 in the late afternoon. This buffering effect is attributed to a strong dependence of cloud-layer shortwave absorption on cloud liquid water path. These diurnal cycle characteristics further demonstrate a tight connection between cloud brightening potential and the relationship between cloud water and droplet number at sunrise, which has implications for the impact of the timing of advertent aerosol perturbations.

Zhang, Jianhao (ORCID:0000000169882935)↗

NASA NTRS1998

FIRE Arctic Clouds Experiment

An overview is given of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Clouds Experiment that was conducted in the Arctic during April through July, 1998. The principal goal of the field experiment was to gather the data needed to examine the impact of arctic clouds on the radiation exchange between the surface, atmosphere, and space, and to study how the surface influences the evolution of boundary layer clouds. The observations will be used to evaluate and improve climate model parameterizations of cloud and radiation processes, satellite remote sensing of cloud and surface characteristics, and understanding of cloud-radiation feedbacks in the Arctic. The experiment utilized four research aircraft that flew over surface-based observational sites in the Arctic Ocean and Barrow, Alaska. In this paper we describe the programmatic and science objectives of the project, the experimental design (including research platforms and instrumentation), conditions that were encountered during the field experiment, and some highlights of preliminary observations, modelling, and satellite remote sensing studies.

Curry, J. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Influence of Sea ice on Arctic Cloud Properties: What Can We Learn by Applying a In Situ Observational Strategy to Satellite Data?

Sea ice is declining because of anthropogenic climate change. This change alters many aspects of the Arctic climate system, including the way that the surface and atmosphere interact. Atmosphere-surface coupling processes represent an important cloud feedback mechanism that can alter the Arctic surface energy budget. For the Arctic, it has been hypothesized that a reduction in sea ice cover could lead to an increase in clouds. If this process were to occur as originally hypothesized, sea ice loss in all seasons would lead to an increase in clouds. Recent observational studies find a cloud response to sea ice loss in non-summer months and no cloud response in summer months. However, previous studies rely on inter-annual variability and reanalysis to control for the influence of meteorology, reducing the confidence in the resulting conclusions. We adopt a phenomenological, event-based approach that does not need to use meteorological reanalysis. The approach analyzes cloud properties derived from CALIPSO-CloudSat over sea ice and adjacent ice-free footprints by compositing individual satellite ground tracks that cross the Arctic sea ice edge. The underlying assumption, which we verify, is that footprints that are close to each other in space and time experience similar large-scale meteorological conditions. Our results show larger cloud fraction and more cloud liquid water over ice-free than over sea ice footprints and provide additional evidence for a seasonal dependence of cloud-sea ice coupling that is in line with previous work. We find a different result where the maximum cloud property differences between sea ice and ice-free ocean occurs in spring, not fall as earlier studies suggest. We argue that these cloud differences between sea ice and ice-free ocean are primarily caused by the influence of the surface type on the thermodynamic stability of the lower troposphere and not principally from an increase in surface evaporation. In addition, we explore the sensitivity of these results to marginal ice zone width, season, Atlantic vs. Pacific sector, and the cloud property dependence on the distance from the sea ice edge. Overall, our results provide further evidence that cloud-sea ice coupling processes are not offsetting the observed surface energy budget perturbation due to sea ice loss in summer; thus, the cloud response to declining sea ice appears to contribute to amplified Arctic warming.

Patrick C Taylor↗

NASA NTRS1990

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Bauer, Susanne E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Earth Observing System: Science Objectives and Challenges

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. In this presentation we review the key areas of scientific uncertainty in understanding climate and global change, and follow that with a description of the EOS goals, objectives, and scientific research elements that comprise the program (instrument science teams and interdisciplinary investigations). Finally, I will describe how scientists and policy makers intend to use EOS data improve our understanding of key global change uncertainties, such as: (i) clouds and radiation, including fossil fuel and natural emissions of sulfate aerosol and its potential impact on cloud feedback, (ii) man's impact on ozone depletion, with examples of ClO and O3 obtained from the UARS satellite during the Austral Spring, and (iii) volcanic eruptions and their impact on climate, with examples from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

King, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS1998

Earth Observing System: Science Objectives and Challenges

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. In this presentation I will describe the key areas of scientific uncertainty in understanding climate and global change, and follow that with a description of the EOS goals, objectives, and scientific research elements that comprise the program (instrument science teams and interdisciplinary investigations). Finally, I will describe how scientists and policy makers intend to use EOS data to improve our understanding of key global change uncertainties, such as: (i) clouds and radiation, including fossil fuel and natural emissions of sulfate aerosol and its potential impact on cloud feedback, (ii) man's impact on ozone depletion, with examples of ClO and O3 obtained from the UARS satellite during the Austral Spring, and (iii) volcanic eruptions and their impact on climate, with examples from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

King, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere in Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

The terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere interface provides a key chemical, biological, and physical lower boundary for the atmosphere. The presence of vegetation itself modifies the physical boundary, or the biogeophysical aspects of the system, by controlling important climate drivers such as soil moisture, light environment, and temperature. The leaf surface area of the terrestrial biosphere provides additional surface area for emissions, and it can be up to 55% of the total Earth’s surface area during the boreal summer. Vegetation also influences the biogeochemical aspects of the system by emitting a broad suite of reactive trace gases such as biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and climate-relevant primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP). Many of these emissions are a function of meteorological and climatological conditions at the surface, including temperature, light environment, soil moisture, and winds. Once emitted, they can be processed in the troposphere through a suite of chemical reactions. BVOC can contribute to the formation of ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA), and PBAP can rupture to form smaller particles with climatic relevance. These emissions and subsequent aerosol products can influence atmospheric processes that affect the surface climate, such as the attenuation of radiation, the formation of greenhouse gases such as ozone that can feedback to surface air temperature, and the alteration of clouds and subsequent precipitation. These atmospheric changes can then feedback to the land surface and emissions themselves, creating positive or negative feedback loops that can dampen or amplify the emission response. For the dominant BVOC isoprene, the feedback response to temperature can be positive or negative depending on ambient temperatures that drive isoprene emissions. The feedback response to soil moisture and precipitation can be positive, negative, or uncoupled depending on the moisture content of the soil and the total atmospheric aerosol loading. For light, the isoprene response can be positive or negative depending on the role of diffuse light. Overall, these feedbacks highlight the dynamical response of the biosphere to changing atmospheric conditions across a range of time scales, from minutes for trace gases and aerosols, to months for phenological changes, to years for land cover and land use change. Here, the dynamic aspect of this system requires us to understand, simulate, and predict the complex feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere and understand their role in the simulation and understanding of climate and global change. From the observational perspective, these feedbacks are challenging to identify in observations, and predictive modeling tools provide a crucial link for understanding how these feedbacks will change under warming climate scenarios.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summertime low clouds mediate the impact of the large-scale circulation on Arctic sea ice

The rapid Arctic sea ice retreat in the early 21 st century is believed to be driven by several dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, such as ice-albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. However, the role of clouds in these feedbacks remains unclear since the causality between clouds and these processes is complex. Here, we use NASA CERES satellite products and NCAR CESM model simulations to suggest that summertime low clouds have played an important role in driving sea ice melt by amplifying the adiabatic warming induced by a stronger anticyclonic circulation aloft. The upper-level high pressure regulates low clouds through stronger downward motion and increasing lower troposphere relative humidity. The increased low clouds favor more sea ice melt via emitting stronger longwave radiation. Then decreased surface albedo triggers a positive ice-albedo feedback, which further enhances sea ice melt. Considering the importance of summertime low clouds, accurate simulation of this process is a prerequisite for climate models to produce reliable future projections of Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Microphysical fundamentals governing cirrus cloud growth: Modeling studies

For application to Global Climate Models, large scale numerical models of cirrus cloud formation and maintenance need to be refined to more reliably simulate the effects and feedbacks of high level clouds. A key aspect is how ice crystal growth is initiated in cirrus, which has started a cloud microphysical controversy between camps either believing that heterogeneous or homogeneous drop freezing is predominantly responsible for cold cirrus ice crystal nucleation. In view of convincing evidence for the existence of highly supercooled cloud droplets in the middle and upper troposphere, however, it is concluded that active ice nuclei are rather scarce at cirrus cloud altitudes, and so a new understanding of cirrus cloud formation is needed. This understanding is sought through an examination of cirrus cloud growth models.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2022

Orbital Trade Study for the PREFIRE Mission

The Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) is a low-cost cubesat-based Earth Science mission selected for rapid implementation through NASAs Earth Ventures-Instrument program. Two cubesats carrying thermal infrared spectrometers (TIRS) in polar orbits will test long-held assumptions regarding radiative balance at long wavelengths where the cold-dry Arctic and Antarctic surfaces expel significant amounts of the earth's radiant energy. Thermal radiometry with better than one micron sampling at wavelengths beyond 15 microns will provide critical observational bounds for inputs into glacier melt and climate change models through improvements in surface emissivities, longwave greenhouse effect parameterizations, and cloud presence/types. Additional information on potential far-infrared surface/atmosphere feedbacks during rapid melt processes may be captured with sub-diurnal revisits of targeted areas. A baseline mission with two cubesats in different orbits provides a means for optimization of sub-diurnal sampling for science purposes. In this presentation we provide details of orbit studies that inform expected sampling metrics. Candidate orbits are modeled in SGP and then TIRS sampling is projected into surface footprints with appropriate geo-location. Matching algorithms then compile statistics for time-delayed revisits between and within the two orbits. Binning of results by latitude allows for abstraction of precession issues as well as for correlations with surface types as defined by radiometric classification schemes. Multiple acceptable pairs of science-driven orbits were found that optimize sampling in areas known to experience rapid melt events. The final choice of PREFIRE orbital parameters includes the systems trade-space, particularly the power budget, as well as the availability of launch opportunities.

"L'Ecuyer, Tristan"↗

NASA NTRS2001

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Feedback Processes and Climate Response

The response of the climate system to an external perturbation--e.g., a change in solar irradiance or a change in atmospheric opacity due to an increase in CO2--depends rather strongly on feedback processes in the system, which either amplify or dampen the effects of the initial perturbation. A simple representation of the climate system is used to compare several important feedbacks, based upon general circulation model (GCM) simulations by various investigators. The models are in general agreement with respect to water vapor feedback, but in wide disagreement with respect to cloud feedback. Because of the arguments raised by Lindzen (1990)--that the processes which determine water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere are quite different from those which operate in the planetary boundary layer, and that upper tropospheric water vapor might actually decrease even when the boundary layer is getting warmer and more moist--researchers undertook a study to determine the sensitivity of climate to changes in water vapor at various levels in the troposphere. The result is that climate is just as sensitive to percentage changes in upper tropospheric water vapor, where the mixing ratio is very small, as it is to percentage changes in the boundary layer, which contains the bulk of total column water vapor.

Arking, Albert↗