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At least 289 records · Page 16

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future

Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO 2 yr -1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO 2 emissions—based on current-day assumptions regarding price and performance. DAC in particular could exacerbate demand for energy and water, yet it would avoid the most severe market-mediated effects of land-use competition from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation. This could result in staple food crop prices rising by approximately fivefold relative to 2010 levels in many parts of the Global South, raising equity concerns about the deployment of NETs. Overall, these results highlight that delays in aggressive global mitigation action greatly increase the requirement for DAC to meet climate targets, and correspondingly, energy and water impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Closing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) systems are an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, recent synthesis studies of field measurements of CH 4 emissions at different spatial scales are ~1.5–2× greater compared to official greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) estimates, with the production-segment as the dominant contributor to this divergence. Based on an updated synthesis of measurements from component-level field studies, we develop a new inventory-based model for CH 4 emissions, for the production-segment only, that agrees within error with recent syntheses of site-level field studies and allows for isolation of equipment-level contributions. We find that unintentional emissions from liquid storage tanks and other equipment leaks are the largest contributors to divergence with the GHGI. If our proposed method were adopted in the United States and other jurisdictions, inventory estimates could better guide CH 4 mitigation policy priorities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO 2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO 2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

climate-change mitigation↗

Methane Conversion and Byproduct Determination in a Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactor

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. Solutions for these pressing challenges have led to different avenues of methane mitigation one of which is the development of solid-state bioreactors. These reactors harness the power of biological species that have evolved to use methane as an energy source. These methanotrophs, Methylomicrobium buryatense (5GB1), have been known to produce acetate and formate as a byproduct of the methane consumption cycle. The development of Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactors (HS-SSBR) utilizes these microorganisms by way of hydrogel immobilization and infiltration of 3D printed scaffolds. The scaffolds act as a substrate for methanotroph growth and methane interaction. Methane consumption was monitored by way of gas sensors which indicated a reduction in methane concentration during the first 4 hours of closed loop methane recirculation. The byproducts of formate and acetate were confirmed by way of 1 H-NMR which indicated the 5GB1 methanotrophs were producing these molecules as a result of methane consumption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO 2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO 2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO 2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO 2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Thermal Management by Engineering the Alignment of Nanocellulose

One of the grand current research challenges is to improve the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings, which cumulatively consume more than 40% of the energy generated globally. In addition to improving the comfort of the inhabitants and mitigating the growing energy consumption problem, new building materials and technologies could provide a safe strategy for geoengineering to mitigate global climate change. Herein, recent progress in developing such advanced materials from nanocellulose, which is often derived from wood or even dirty feedstocks like waste, is reviewed. By using chemical and bacteria-enabled processing, nanocellulose can be used to fabricate broadband photonic reflectors, thermally super-insulating aerogels, solar gain regulators, and low-emissivity coatings, with potential applications in windows, roofs, walls, and other components of buildings envelopes. These material developments draw inspiration from advanced energy management found in nature, such as the nanoporous photonic structures that evolved in cuticles of beetles. Fabrication of such materials takes advantage of mesoscale liquid crystalline self-assembly, which allows for pre-designed control of cellulose nanoparticle orientations at the mesoscale. Finally, with the potential fully realized, such materials could one day transform the current energy-lossy buildings into energy plants on Earth and possibly even enable extraterrestrial habitats.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Catalytic Processes to Accelerate Decarbonization in a Net-Zero Carbon World

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is one of the critical challenges to mitigate global climate change, which is having detrimental impacts on society and the environment. Fossil fuel combustion in transportation, power generation, and industrial processes is the dominant contributor to carbon emissions. Over the past decades, sustainable solutions and strategies have been investigated and developed to enable decarbonization. Catalysis plays an essential role to address this global challenge by increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, capturing carbon dioxide, and utilizing clean energy sources to displace fossil fuels. In this Review, the role of catalysis in reducing energy demand was discussed, enhancing process efficiency, displacing carbon-intensive feedstocks and products, and therefore, reducing carbon emissions. Here, recent advances in catalyst development were summarized, focusing on applications to enhance industrial processes efficiency and enable utilization of clean energy sources. Emerging approaches in catalysis were reviewed, including the manufacture of iron and steel, direct air capture of CO 2 , production of ethylene, ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuels, plastic recycling, and the synthesis of biobased plastics. The Review was concluded with suggested research directions to achieve a carbon net-zero world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process modeling, techno-economic assessment, and life cycle assessment of the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 : a review

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional fossil-based technologies for the synthesis of chemicals. Its industrial implementation could lead to a reduction in the carbon footprint of chemicals and the mitigation of climate change impacts caused by hard-to-decarbonize industrial applications, among other benefits. However, the current low technology readiness levels of such emerging technologies make it hard to predict their performance at industrial scales. During the past few years, researchers have developed diverse techniques to model and assess the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 toward its industrial implementation. The aim of this literature review is to provide a comprehensive overview of techno-economic and life cycle assessment methods and pave the way for future assessment approaches. First, we identify which modeling approaches have been conducted to extend analysis to the production scale. Next, we explore the metrics used to evaluate such systems, regarding technical, environmental, and economic aspects. Finally, we assess the challenges and research opportunities for the industrial implementation of CO 2 reduction via electrolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A comprehensive review on regeneration strategies for direct air capture

Direct air capture (DAC), which removes CO 2 directly from ambient air, is a critical negative emission technology for mitigating global climate change. Efficiency and the source of energy are crucial considerations for DAC to enable negative emissions. Substantial technological progress has been made in DAC technologies, and promising opportunities exist for commercial-scale deployments. However, DAC technologies require high regeneration energy to release CO 2 from sorbents. Various approaches have been tested and optimized for different DAC systems. This review demonstrates that the work equivalent regeneration energy demand (supported by either the electric grid or fossil fuel combustion) ranges from 0.5–18.75 GJ/t-CO 2 for solid sorbent DAC systems and 0.62–17.28 GJ/t-CO 2 for liquid solvent DAC systems. The regeneration process is the energy-demanding process in DAC that is a key step for efficient operation. Potential methods to lower the regeneration energy demand include microwave, ultrasound, magnetic particle heating, and electric swing. Although the potential methods to date are still at the lab scale, significant work is being done to optimize DAC system processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pore-Scale Microenvironments Control Anthropogenic Carbon Mineralization Outcomes in Basalt

Thin sections and hand samples from 50 sidewall cores from the Wallula Basalt Pilot Demonstration, a basaltic carbon sequestration demonstration, provided the opportunity for the in-depth analysis of carbon mineralization induced by the injection of supercritical CO 2 . In this study, we used optical petrography and scanning electron microscopy to characterize the physical and chemical characteristics of the basalt components influenced by carbon mineralization reactions from all available hand samples and thin sections within the three CO 2 injection zones and caprock flow interiors. We found extensive carbonate mineralization, mostly in the form of nodules that were shown to be chemically zoned: Ca-dominant in the core regions and Ca-bearing Fe-dominant in the outer regions. Carbonate mineralization also took the form of fracture-filling carbonate cement, and acicular aragonite was also observed. Overall, we clarified the structural and paragenetic relationships between newly formed minerals, identifying a new fibro-palagonite-like, poorly crystalline silicate phase that grew on the carbonate nodules and pore-lining zeolites. Here we observed Fe-dominant carbonate precipitates surrounding acicular aragonite and rhombohedral Ca-carbonate cores, whereas previous studies of these zoned nodules did not observe these structures. A comprehensive accounting of the carbon mineralization products is vital to understand and predict the behavior of supercritical CO 2 in the subsurface given both the diversity of the host rock between and within injection zones, especially considering that the morphology and chemistry of the diverse precipitates are influenced by the pore-scale microenvironments of the basalt.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗