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At least 289 records · Page 16

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.

Olsson, Josefine A↗

Development of neural network force fields for corrosion studies

To fully understand the chemistry and physics of corrosion, novel methods of simulation must be developed. One approach is designing machine learning (ML) algorithms integrated with density functional theory to develop adaptive force fields to gain insight into corrosion behavior namely at the surface of metal oxides. Current methods of modeling corrosion are slow due to the computational cost of resolving both reaction mechanics and mass transport processes. Machine learning methods can be implemented to obtain structure-activity relationships at both the molecular and bulk scale while still retaining the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) and significantly decreasing the time needed for simulations of complex chemical processes in the various environments of corrosion. Multiscale models are needed for corrosion studies to fully understand its processes not only at the atomic length scale (chemical bonding, energies, and forces), but also at the nano and meso length scales (solid-state physics and material science processes). Current methods of study include DFT, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo. The limitation of DFT is that only a small number of atoms or molecules can be simulated at that level of theory. Density functional theory is used to study the electronic structure of atoms and molecules, and calculate the force component of each atom. However, these calculations are limited to about 1000 atoms. Custom periodic boundary conditions (PBC) can be used to describe the various environments and defects that affect the atomic forces to produce a large data set from which a training set can be derived. Machine learning can be utilized to overcome the barrier of modeling macroscopic and multi-scale processes from ab initio calculations through the development of adaptive force fields. Local environments determine the atomic forces of a given system, therefore adaptive force fields must be created to produce reliable quantum mechanical calculations. This can be achieved by developing a learning algorithm that uses the mapped atomic forces or fingerprint as an input to produce energies and magnetic moments as output. A systematic approach was used to begin to build a data set in order to accurately describe the atomic forces in various environments. In Figure 4 below, a simple PBC cell of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} was first optimized. A surface optimization was performed next, followed by a hydroxylated surface optimization. Once this calculation has converged, the adsorption of halide species to the hydroxylated surface will be investigated. TensorFlow is an open source platform for machine learning developed by Google. Using a high level application program interface (API) such as Keras allows for building and training ML models easily in a number of different environments and languages. For this project, a neural network was developed within Anaconda in Python. Future Work: Further development of reference data set; Refining neural network and learning algorithm; Fingerprinting atomic environment to enable mapping of atomic force components; Choosing appropriate training set from reference data; Learning from training set and enabling non-linear mapping of training set fingerprints and the atomic forces; Estimation of uncertainty to identify ranges of outside applicability; Testing and analysis of molecular dynamic simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards Lightweight Data Integration Using Multi-Workflow Provenance and Data Observability

Modern large-scale scientific discovery requires multidisciplinary collaboration across diverse computing facilities, including High Performance Computing (HPC) machines and the Edge-to-Cloud continuum. Integrated data analysis plays a crucial role in scientific discovery, especially in the current AI era, by enabling Responsible AI development, FAIR, Reproducibility, and User Steering. However, the heterogeneous nature of science poses challenges such as dealing with multiple supporting tools, cross-facility environments, and efficient HPC execution. Building on data observability, adapter system design, and provenance, we propose MIDA: an approach for lightweight runtime Multi-workflow Integrated Data Analysis. MIDA defines data observability strategies and adaptability methods for various parallel systems and machine learning tools. With observability, it intercepts the dataflows in the background without requiring instrumentation while integrating domain, provenance, and telemetry data at runtime into a unified database ready for user steering queries. We conduct experiments showing end-to-end multi-workflow analysis integrating data from Dask and MLFlow in a real distributed deep learning use case for materials science that runs on multiple environments with up to 276 GPUs in parallel. We show near-zero overhead running up to 100,000 tasks on 1,680 CPU cores on the Summit supercomputer.

Santos Souza, Renan↗

Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group: GeoCLUSTER App, Subsurface Simulation Results, and Publications

To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance, and economic viability of closed-loop geothermal systems in hot-dry rock, the Closed-Loop Geothermal Working Group -- a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed-loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and supercritical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying Python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the techno-economic analysis script are provided. This data submission will contain results from the Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group study that are within the public domain, including publications, simulation results, databases, and computer codes. GeoCLUSTER is a Python-based web application created using Dash, an open-source framework built on top of Flask that streamlines the building of data dashboards. GeoCLUSTER provides users with a collection of interactive methods for streamlining the exploration and visualization of an HDF5 dataset. The GeoCluster app and database are contained in the compressed file geocluster_vx.zip, where the "x" refers to the version number. For example, geocluster_v1.zip is Version 1 of the app. This zip file also contains installation instructions. **To use the GeoCLUSTER app in the cloud, click the link to "GeoCLUSTER on AWS" in the Resources section below. To use the GeoCLUSTER app locally, download the geocluster_vx.zip to your computer and uncompress this file. When uncompressed this file comprises two directories and the geocluster_installation.pdf file. The geo-data app contains the HDF5 database in condensed format, and the GeoCLUSTER directory contains the GeoCLUSTER app in the subdirectory dash_app, as app.py. The geocluster_installation.pdf file provides instructions on installing Python, the needed Python modules, and then executing the app.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Ground Delay Program Analytics with Behavioral Cloning and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

We used historical data to build two types of model that predict Ground Delay Program implementation decisions and also produce insights into how and why those decisions are made. More specifically, we built behavioral cloning and inverse reinforcement learning models that predict hourly Ground Delay Program implementation at Newark Liberty International and San Francisco International airports. Data available to the models include actual and scheduled air traffic metrics and observed and forecasted weather conditions. We found that the random forest behavioral cloning models we developed are substantially better at predicting hourly Ground Delay Program implementation for these airports than the inverse reinforcement learning models we developed. However, all of the models struggle to predict the initialization and cancellation of Ground Delay Programs. We also investigated the structure of the models in order to gain insights into Ground Delay Program implementation decision making. Notably, characteristics of both types of model suggest that GDP implementation decisions are more tactical than strategic: they are made primarily based on conditions now or conditions anticipated in only the next couple of hours.

Bloem, Michael↗

Field Validation of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Software Solution

The U.S. General Services Administration's (GSA's) Green Proving Ground (GPG) program, in partnership with the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), completed a field study of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) software solution. The study focused on a single testbed facility to test the GEB functionality of the software solution, along with other features. The testbed facility - a courthouse - is a common building type in GSA's vast building portfolio, offering potentially impactful findings on a scalable level. The study evaluated Prescriptive Data's technology, Nantum OS, a connected building operating system ("GEB Solution") which aggregates multiple sources of previously siloed building data and combines that data with external sources, such as weather information or utility signals, into a single integrated platform. A GEB Solution is a type of Energy Management Information System (EMIS). EMIS is defined as a system of devices, data services, and software applications that communicates with any building system or third-party data source to aggregate and transform data into new capabilities to aid in the optimization of energy use at the building, campus, or agency level. This specific GEB Solution is an EMIS with ASO, automated system optimization, offering supervisory control of certain aspects of the Building Automation System (BAS). Multiple features were evaluated including, but not limited to, Continuous Demand Management to avoid setting new monthly kilowatt (kW) peaks, energy efficiency for reduction of kilowatt hours (kWh) and natural gas consumption, and automated demand response (ADR) for purposes of lowering demand during a utility called Demand Response (DR) event. The testbed facility was the Foley Federal Building and US Courthouse ("Foley Federal Building") located in Las Vegas, NV. This is a 209,496 sq. ft. building constructed in the 1960s with major renovations in 2004. The facility was a good candidate due to the large prevalence of office and courthouse spaces in the GSA portfolio of buildings. It also has many features which allow integration into and control of the building and a strong facilities team to assist with the study. Quantitative and qualitative performance objectives were developed using GSA's GPG GEB project template along with input from the vendor and building facility staff; these are outlined in Table 1. The quantitative performance objectives focused on continuous demand management, energy efficiency, and automated demand response. The qualitative performance objectives focused on the ease of installation and commissioning as well as the operability of the GEB solution. Other performance metrics that are reported on include carbon reduction, cost effectiveness, and occupant acceptance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhancing occupant behavior representation for interoperability between building information modeling and building energy modeling

Building Performance Simulation (BPS) has been adopted as an essential tool for designing, operating, and retrofitting buildings to optimize energy efficiency throughout the building life cycle. The Green Building XML (gbXML) schema facilitates seamless data exchange between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) software tools. However, limited occupant behavior (OB) representation in BIM often leads to inconsistent and inaccurate energy simulation in BEM software. This paper presents 154 systematic enhancements to the existing occupant behavior XML (obXML) schema v1.3.4, initially developed for standardizing OB representation for BEM, to address existing limitations and improve interoperability with BIM models. The enhancements encompass improved integration with BIM models through extended building representations and system operations, expanded support for advanced OB models with additional environmental parameters and mathematical capabilities, and implementation of a standardized model documentation framework. To facilitate seamless data transformation between gbXML and obXML schemas, we developed a publicly available gb-obXML Schema Converter. Three case studies demonstrate the enhanced schema’s capabilities: representation of building information using a two-story office building model, documentation of a window operation behavior model, and validation of the schema converter’s functionality. The enhanced obXML schema v1.4 enables sophisticated modeling of occupant-building interactions while maintaining consistency with industry-standard BIM schemas. The standardized documentation framework facilitates reproducibility and knowledge sharing in the OB research community, while the schema converter automates the integration of building information into OB simulation workflows. These enhancements establish a foundation for more accurate building performance simulation by supporting sophisticated representation of occupant behavior within the BIM-to-BEM simulation workflows.

Chung, Jihoon↗

Bim-to-fea Conversion Program

The purpose of this program is to enable interoperability between BIM-based architectural design software (i.e., Revit, ArchiCAD, AVEVA E3D) to structural analysis software (i.e., SAP2000). The program takes in BIM building model data via the IFC file format, automatically transforms the architectural coordination entities (structural beams, columns, slabs, walls) to structural analysis entities (i.e., finite element space frames and shells), automatically adjusts the connectivity of the structural analysis entities, and finally exports the structural analysis entities as a structural analysis model contained within a new IFC file. For example, a 3D building in Revit can be exported to an IFC file, run through this BIM-to-FEA program, then the exported IFC can be inputted into SAP2000.

Crowder, Nicholas [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

A Knowledge-based Framework for Building Energy Model Performance Verification

Building energy modeling (BEM) has been widely used by researchers, regulators, and engineers to quantify building energy performance. Quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) of the model's performance are essential parts of such analysis. Currently, QA/QC is done in a manual and ad-hoc manner, which is tedious, error-prone, and time-consuming when QA/QC a large number of models. To solve these challenges, we propose a a dAta-driveN buIlding perforMance verificATion framEwork (ANIMATE), which conducts automated output-based verification of building operations requirements (especially for time-series output-based verification of control requirements). While this framework was developed for verifying energy model performance, it can be extended for other applications such as BEM software testing and performance verification of real buildings in the field.

Chen, Yan↗

Scalable in situ non-destructive evaluation of additively manufactured components using process monitoring, sensor fusion, and machine learning

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. However, the current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques, which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. In this work, an in situ NDE (INDE) system was engineered to detect subsurface flaws detected in X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT) directly from process monitoring data. A multilayer, multimodal data input allowed the INDE system to detect numerous subsurface flaws in the size range of 200–1000µm using a novel human-in-the-loop annotation procedure. Furthermore, a framework was established for generating probability-of-detection (POD) and probability-of-false-alarm (PFA) curves compliant with NDE standards by systematically comparing instances of detected subsurface flaws to post-build XCT data. Here, we also introduce for the first time in the AM in situ sensing literature the a 90/95 – the flaw size corresponding to a 90% detection rate on the lower 95% confidence interval of the POD curve. The INDE system successfully demonstrated POD capabilities commensurate with traditional NDE methods. Traditional ML performance metrics were also shown to be inadequate for assessing the ability of the INDE system’s flaw detection performance. It is the hope of the authors that future studies will adopt the POD and PFA approach outlined here to provide better insight into the utility of process monitoring for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental investigation on thermal inertia characterization of commercial buildings for demand response

Characterizing the thermal inertia of commercial buildings is of great importance in quantifying demand flexibility. Experimental tests can be used to investigate the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. However, existing studies tend to be qualitative and have limited scope. In this study, a comprehensive field test has been performed to assess the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. In this field test, six buildings are selected with different sizes, vintages, and types of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to represent the majority of the U.S. commercial building stock. We quantify the thermal inertia with building operation data collected under various thermostat excitation signals. We then studied the relationship between thermal inertia and intrinsic properties, such as floor area, HVAC system, etc., as well as the operation condition indicators such as outdoor air temperature, zone temperature, and occupancy. The testing results indicate that the median values of the normalized charge response time and the normalized discharge response time of the five buildings are 1~5 hr/ °C and -5~-1 hr/ °C, respectively. The results also show that the thermal inertia of commercial buildings may be sensitive to the HVAC system type but not the floor area or location of zones, i.e., core vs. perimeter. Finally, our results suggest that the relationships between the charging/discharging normalized response time and the zone/outdoor temperature may vary among zones and be highly nonlinear.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization of Window Positions for Wind-Driven Natural Ventilation Performance

This paper optimizes opening positions on building facades to maximize the natural ventilation’s potential for ventilation and cooling purposes. The paper demonstrates how to apply computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results to architectural design processes, and how the CFD-driven decisions impact ventilation and cooling: (1) background: A CFD helps predict the natural ventilation’s potential, the integration of CFD results into design decision-making has not been actively practiced; (2) methods: Pressure data on building facades were obtained from CFD simulations and mapped into the 3D modeling environment, which were then used to identify optimal positions of two openings of a zone. The effect of the selected opening positions was validated with building energy simulations; (3) results: The cross-comparison study of different window positions based on different geographical locations quantified the impact on natural ventilation effectiveness; and (4) conclusions: The optimized window position was shown to be effective, and some optimal solutions contradicted the typical cross-ventilation strategy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Multi-fidelity physics-informed machine learning for probabilistic damage diagnosis

Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in structural health monitoring (SHM) because of their ability to learn the complex relationship between damage and sensor data. However, the lack of sufficient experimental data for structures with different degrees of damage is a key problem in training ML models for SHM. This problem can be alleviated by using physics-based models to generate the required training data to build physics-informed ML (PIML) models for SHM. However, it takes significant computational effort to perform enough high-fidelity simulations of the diagnostic test. It is thus desirable to know whether the available computational resource budget should be expended on numerous low-fidelity physics simulations, or a small number of high-fidelity simulations, or their combination. In this paper, we investigate this aspect of generating adequate training data for PIML, by constructing multi-fidelity PIML models. We evaluate the performance of several PIML models, trained with different amounts of low-fidelity and high-fidelity data, in locating hidden cracks in concrete structures using a nonlinear dynamics-based diagnosis technique. Here, we find that high-fidelity physics simulations that do not cover the (test and damage) parameter space do not improve the performance of diagnostic PIML models built using data from many low-fidelity physics simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA POWER: Providing Present and Future Climate Services Based on NASA Data for the Energy, Agricultural, and Sustainable Buildings Communities

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the renewable energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been successfully used by decision makers to support actions that address climate change. For example, POWER data has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing climate services to provide time series of the projected future evolution of key quantities that interest our users, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We demonstrate the potential of the new climate services by presenting here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at different NASA centers across the continental United States. These data services are based on downscaled climate model data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data set. We highlight the important insights that new climate services can provide. Our climate services will help our user communities quantify the impacts of climate change to support their key decisions in planning for the future, both inside and outside the Federal Government, especially for decisions in renewable energy and in building heating and cooling.

Bradley Hegyi↗

Completion design improvement using a deep convolutional network

Maximizing stimulated natural and hydraulic fracture network is one of the primary hydraulic fracturing concerns for economic production from a horizontal shale gas well. Geomechanical facies and preexisting fractures in each stage are identified based on similarities in formation characteristics to optimize the locations of perforation clusters. This often requires analyzing large volumes of drilling, Logging While Drilling (LWD) and Measurement While Drilling (MWD) data. In this paper, we develop a methodology that calculates the mechanical specific energy (MSE) using real-time drill string acceleration signals directly from its definition. High resolution vibration signals have been collected using a tri-axial accerlometer, which was an auxiliary tool included in acoustic borehole imager. This technique provides a cost-efficient solution for engineered completion design. Furthermore, we adopt deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with signal processing to build a data pipeline that effectively extracts patterns from dynamic acceleration signals for rock lateral MSE classification. First, we apply discrete wavelet transform and Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) for signal denoising and pattern recognition. Then we construct an image dataset using multi-scale image fusion at pixel level from 3 sensor channels, including axial, lateral acceleration spectrograms and zero-padded revolutions per minute (RPM). The resulted RGB image dataset includes 4,000 images of 5 MSE ranges with various rock strength conditions. Our results demonstrate that the proposed deep learning model can achieve more than 90% classification accuracy. The deep learning results, as a reference source, were applied in selected Marcellus Shale Energy and Environmental Lab (MSEEL) wells engineered completion located in the Marcellus shale gas site.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A First–Principles–Based Sub–Lattice Formalism for Predicting Off–Stoichiometry in Materials for Solar Thermochemical Applications: The Example of Ceria

Theoretical models that reliably can predict off-stoichiometry in materials via accurate descriptions of underlying thermodynamics are crucial for energy applications. For example, transition-metal and rare-earth oxides that can tolerate a large number of oxygen vacancies, such as CeO 2 and doped CeO 2 , can split water and carbon dioxide via a two-step, oxide-based solar thermochemical (STC) cycle. The search for new STC materials with a performance superior to that of state-of-the-art CeO 2 can benefit from predictions accurately describing the thermodynamics of oxygen vacancies. The sub-lattice formalism, a common tool used to fit experimental data and build temperature-composition phase diagrams, can be useful in this context. Here, sub-lattice models are derived solely from zero-temperature quantum mechanics calculations to estimate fairly accurate temperature- and oxygen-partial-pressure-dependent off-stoichiometries in CeO 2 and Zr-doped CeO 2 . Physical motivations for deriving some of the “excess” sub-lattice model parameters directly from quantum mechanical calculations, instead of fitting to minimize deviations from experimental and/or theoretical data, are identified. As a result, important limitations and approximations of the approach used are specified and extensions to multi-cation oxides are also suggested to help identify novel candidates for water and carbon dioxide splitting and related applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗