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The objective is to use cost-benefit analyses to identify, for a given project, optimal sets of software assurance activities. Towards this end we have incorporated cost-benefit calculations into a risk management framework.
We have extended an existing risk management framework with a refined cost-benefit model. Benefits are measured in terms of reduction of risk.
NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Program is investing in technologies to revolutionize the robotic exploration of deep space. One of these technologies is Aerocapture, the most promising of the "aeroassist" techniques used to maneuver a space vehicle within an atmosphere, using aerodynamic forces in lieu of propellant. (Other aeroassist techniques include aeroentry and aerobraking.) Aerocapture relies on drag atmospheric drag to decelerate an incoming spacecraft and capture it into orbit. This technique is very attractive since it permits spacecraft to be launched from Earth at higher velocities, providing shorter trip times and saving mass and overall cost on future missions. Recent aerocapture systems analysis studies quantify the benefits of aerocapture to future exploration. The 2002 Titan aerocapture study showed that using aerocapture at Titan instead of conventional propulsive capture results in over twice as much payload delivered to Titan. Aerocapture at Venus results in almost twice the payload delivered to Venus as with aerobraking, and over six times more mass delivered into orbit than all-propulsive capture. Aerocapture at Mars shows significant benefits as the payload sizes increase and as missions become more complex. Recent Neptune aerocapture studies show that aerocapture opens up entirely new classes of missions at Neptune. Current aerocapture technology development is advancing the maturity of each subsystem technology needed for successful implementation of aerocapture on future missions. Recent development has focused on both rigid aeroshell and inflatable aerocapture systems. Rigid aeroshell systems development includes new ablative and non-ablative thermal protection systems, advanced aeroshell performance sensors, lightweight structures and higher temperature adhesives. Inflatable systems such as trailing tethered and clamped "ballutes" and inflatable aeroshells are also under development. Computational tools required to support future aerocapture missions are an integral part of aerocapture development. Tools include engineering reference atmosphere models, guidance and navigation algorithms, aerothermodynamic modeling, and flight simulation.
The NASA/CNES Jason satellite, follow-on to the highly successful TOPEX/Poseidon mission, continues to provide oceanographers and marine operators across the globe with a continuous twelve-year, high quality stream of sea surface height data. The mission is expected to extend through 2007, when the NASA/NOAA/CNES follow-on mission, OSTM, will be launched with the wide-swath ocean altimeter on board. This unprecedented resource of valuable ocean data is being used to map sea surface height, geostrophic velocity, significant wave height, and wind speed over the global oceans. Altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and improve our understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. Ocean altimeter data has many societal benefits and has proven invaluable in many practical applications including; a) Ocean forecasting systems; b) Climate research and forecasting; c) Ship routing; d) Fisheries management; e) Marine mammal habitat monitoring; f) Hurricane forecasting and tracking; g) Debris tracking; and h) Precision marine operations such as cable-laying and oil production. The data has been cited in nearly 2,000 research and popular articles since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, and almost 200 scientific users receive the global coverage altimeter data on a monthly basis. In addition to the scientific and operational uses of the data, the educational community has seized the unique concepts highlighted by these altimeter missions as a resource for teaching ocean science to students from grade school through college. This presentation will highlight societal benefits of ocean altimetry data in the areas of climate studies, marine operations, marine research, and non-ocean investigations.
The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is driving a paradigm shift in the Earth Observation community, refocusing Earth observing systems on GEO Societal Benefit Areas (SBA). Over the short history of space-based Earth observing systems most decisions have been made based on improving our scientific understanding of the Earth with the implicit assumption that this would serve society well in the long run. The space agencies responsible for developing the satellites used for global Earth observations are typically science driven. The innovation of GEO is the call for investments by space agencies to be driven by global societal needs. This paper presents the preliminary findings of an analysis focused on the observational requirements of the GEO Energy SBA. The analysis was performed by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Systems Engineering Office (SEO) which is responsible for facilitating the development of implementation plans that have the maximum potential for success while optimizing the benefit to society. The analysis utilizes a new taxonomy for organizing requirements, assesses the current gaps in spacebased measurements and missions, assesses the impact of the current and planned space-based missions, and presents a set of recommendations.
Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.
The American Institute of Aeronautics Astronautics (AIAA) Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee is in final preparation of a new standard for the exchange of flight dynamics models. The standard will become an ANSI standard and is under consideration for submission to ISO for acceptance by the international community. The standard has some a spects that should provide benefits to the simulation training community. Use of the new standard by the training simulation community will reduce development, maintenance and technical refresh investment on each device. Furthermore, it will significantly lower the cost of performing model updates to improve fidelity or expand the envelope of the training device. Higher flight fidelity should result in better transfer of training, a direct benefit to the pilots under instruction. Costs of adopting the standard are minimal and should be paid back within the cost of the first use for that training device. The standard achie ves these advantages by making it easier to update the aerodynamic model. It provides a standard format for the model in a custom eXtensible Markup Language (XML) grammar, the Dynamic Aerospace Vehicle Exchange Markup Language (DAVE-ML). It employs an existing XML grammar, MathML, to describe the aerodynamic model in an input data file, eliminating the requirement for actual software compilation. The major components of the aero model become simply an input data file, and updates are simply new XML input files. It includes naming and axis system conventions to further simplify the exchange of information.
In today's air traffic control operations, sectors that have traffic demand below capacity are combined so that fewer controller teams are required to manage air traffic. Controllers in current operations are certified to control a group of six to eight sectors, known as an area of specialization. Sector combinations are restricted to occur within areas of specialization. Since there are few sector combination possibilities in each area of specialization, human supervisors can effectively make sector combination decisions. In the future, automation and procedures will allow any appropriately trained controller to control any of a large set of generic sectors. The primary benefit of this will be increased controller staffing flexibility. Generic sectors will also allow more options for combining sectors, making sector combination decisions difficult for human supervisors. A sector-combining algorithm can assist supervisors as they make generic sector combination decisions. A heuristic algorithm for combining under-utilized air space sectors to conserve air traffic control resources has been described and analyzed. Analysis of the algorithm and comparisons with operational sector combinations indicate that this algorithm could more efficiently utilize air traffic control resources than current sector combinations. This paper investigates the benefits of using the sector-combining algorithm proposed in previous research to combine high altitude generic airspace sectors. Simulations are conducted in which all the high altitude sectors in a center are allowed to combine, as will be possible in generic high altitude airspace. Furthermore, the algorithm is adjusted to use a version of the simplified dynamic density (SDD) workload metric that has been modified to account for workload reductions due to automatic handoffs and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B). This modified metric is referred to here as future simplified dynamic density (FSDD). Finally, traffic demand sets with increased air traffic demand are used in the simulations to capture the expected growth in air traffic demand by the mid-term.
Respiratory diseases such as asthma can be triggered by environmental conditions that can be monitored using Earth observing data and environmental forecast models. Frequent dust storms in the southwestern United States, the annual cycle of juniper pollen events in the spring, and increased aerosol and ozone concentrations in summer, are health concerns shared by the community at large. Being able to forecast the occurrence of these events would help the health care community prepare for increased visits to emergency rooms, as well as allow public health officials to issue alerts to affected persons. This information also is important to epidemiologists for analyzing long-term trends and impacts of these events on the health and well-being of the community. Earth observing data collected by remote sensing platforms are important for improving the performance of models that can forecast these events, and in turn, improve products and information for decision-making by public health authorities. This presentation will discuss the benefits of using remote sensing data for forecasting environmental events that can adversely affect individuals with respiratory ailments. The presentations will include a brief discussion on relevant Earth observing data, the forecast models used, and societal benefits of the resulting products and information. Several NASA-funded projects will be highlighted as examples
New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.
The concept of re-partitioning the airspace into a new set of sectors for allocating capacity rather than delaying flights to comply with the capacity constraints of a static set of sectors is being explored. The reduction in delay, a benefit, achieved by this concept needs to be greater than the cost of controllers and equipment needed for the additional sectors. Therefore, tradeoff studies are needed for benefits assessment of this concept.
To date there has been much discussion about the value of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) for space missions. Claims of various benefits, based on paper analysis, are good; however a benefits statement with empirical evidence to support is even better. This paper presents potential and actual advantages of using DTN for Earth science missions based on results from multiple demonstrations, conducted by the Communications, Standards, and Technology Laboratory (CSTL) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Demonstrations included two flight demonstrations using the Earth Observing Mission 1 (EO-1) and the Near Earth Network (NEN), a ground based demonstration over satellite links to the Internet Router in Space (IRIS) payload on Intelsat-14, and others using the NASA Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). Real and potential findings include increased flexibility and efficiency in science campaigns, reduced latency in a collaborative science scenario, and improved scientist-instrument communication and control.
Future space exploration missions will need to use less logistical supplies if humans are to live for longer periods away from our home planet. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse or recycle items that have been launched will be very valuable. Reuse and recycling also reduce the trash burden and associated nuisances, such as smell, but require good systems engineering and operations integration to reap the greatest benefits. A systems analysis was conducted to quantify the mass and volume savings of four different technologies currently under development by NASA fs Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing project. Advanced clothing systems lead to savings by direct mass reduction and increased wear duration. Reuse of logistical items, such as packaging, for a second purpose allows fewer items to be launched. A device known as a heat melt compactor drastically reduces the volume of trash, recovers water and produces a stable tile that can be used instead of launching additional radiation protection. The fourth technology, called trash ]to ]supply ]gas, can benefit a mission by supplying fuel such as methane to the propulsion system. This systems engineering work will help improve logistics planning and overall mission architectures by determining the most effective use, and reuse, of all resources.
Category 3, Class C/D missions have the benefit of delivering worthwhile science at minimal cost which is increasingly important in NASA's constrained budget environment. Although higher cost Category 1 and 2 missions are necessary to achieve NASA's science objectives, Category 3 missions are shown to be an effective way to provide significant science return at a low cost. Category 3 missions, however, are often reviewed the same as the more risk averse Category 1 and 2 missions. Acknowledging that reviews are not the only aspect of a total engineering effort, reviews are still a significant concern for NASA programs. This can unnecessarily increase the cost and schedule of Category 3 missions. This paper quantifies the benefit and performance of Category 3 missions by looking at the cost vs. capability relative to Category 1 and 2 missions. Lessons learned from successful organizations that develop low cost Category 3, Class C/D missions are also investigated to help provide the basis for suggestions to streamline the review of NASA Category 3 missions.
Future space exploration missions will need to use less logistical supplies if humans are to live for longer periods away from our home planet. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse or recycle items that have been launched will be very valuable. Reuse and recycling also reduce the trash burden and associated nuisances, such as smell, but require good systems engineering and operations integration to reap the greatest benefits. A systems analysis was conducted to quantify the mass and volume savings of four different technologies currently under development by NASA s Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing project. Advanced clothing systems lead to savings by direct mass reduction and increased wear duration. Reuse of logistical items, such as packaging, for a second purpose allows fewer items to be launched. A device known as a heat melt compactor drastically reduces the volume of trash, recovers water and produces a stable tile that can be used instead of launching additional radiation protection. The fourth technology, called trash-to-gas, can benefit a mission by supplying fuel such as methane to the propulsion system. This systems engineering work will help improve logistics planning and overall mission architectures by determining the most effective use, and reuse, of all resources.
Throughout the history of the International Space Station (ISS), crews on board have conducted a variety of scientific research and educational activities. Well into the second year of full utilization of the ISS laboratory, the trend of scientific accomplishments and educational opportunities continues to grow. More than 1500 investigations have been conducted on the ISS since the first module launched in 1998, with over 700 scientific publications. The ISS provides a unique environment for research, international collaboration and educational activities that benefit humankind. This paper will provide an up to date summary of key investigations, facilities, publications, and benefits from ISS research that have developed over the past year. Discoveries in human physiology and nutrition have enabled astronauts to return from ISS with little bone loss, even as scientists seek to better understand the new puzzle of "ocular syndrome" affecting the vision of up to half of astronauts. The geneLAB campaign will unify life sciences investigations to seek genomic, proteomic, and metabolomics of the effect of microgravity on life as a whole. Combustion scientists identified a new "cold flame" phenomenon that has the potential to improve models of efficient combustion back on Earth. A significant number of instruments in Earth remote sensing and astrophysics are providing new access to data or nearing completion for launch, making ISS a significant platform for understanding of the Earth system and the universe. In addition to multidisciplinary research, the ISS partnership conducts a myriad of student led research investigations and educational activities aimed at increasing student interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Over the past year, the ISS partnership compiled new statistics of the educational impact of the ISS on students around the world. More than 43 million students, from kindergarten to graduate school, with more than 28 million teachers located in 49 countries have participated in some aspect of ISS educational activities. These activities include student-developed investigations, education competitions, and classroom versions of ISS investigations, participating in ISS investigator experiments, ISS hardware development, educational demonstrations, and cultural activities. Through the many inquiry-based educational activities, students and teachers are encouraged to participate in the ISS program thus motivating the next generation of students to pursue careers in STEM.
Modernization of the airline fleet avionics is essential to fully enable future technologies and procedures for increasing national airspace system capacity. However in the current national airspace system, system-wide benefits gained by avionics upgrade are not fully directed to aircraft/airlines that upgrade, resulting in slow fleet modernization rate. Preferential merge re-sequence scheduling is a best-equipped-best-served concept designed to incentivize avionics upgrade among airlines by allowing aircraft with new avionics (high-equipped) to be re-sequenced ahead of aircraft without the upgrades (low-equipped) at enroute merge waypoints. The goal of this study is to investigate the potential benefits gained or lost by airlines under a high or low-equipped fleet scenario if preferential merge resequence scheduling is implemented.
The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.