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At least 289 records · Page 16

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being developed by NASA in response to the National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of the moisture present at Earth's land surface and will distinguish frozen from thawed land surfaces. Direct observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state from space will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing observations will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance by helping to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink on land over the boreal latitudes. The SMAP mission concept would utilize an L-band radar and radiometer. These instruments will share a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. The SMAP instruments provide direct measurements of surface conditions. In addition, the SMAP project will use these observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide deeper root-zone soil moisture and estimates of land surface-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy and carbon. SMAP is scheduled for a 2014 launch date

Entekhabi, Dara↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of mitigation strategies for radioactive fission gases in fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactors

Here, the Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) is a promising Generation IV nuclear reactor due to its improved safety design, near atmospheric working pressure, and high electric power conversion efficiency. However, control of radioactive fission gases, such as tritium, is a critical issue in FHRs due to the significantly larger production rate and potentially larger leakage rate of tritium compared to those in Light Water Reactors (LWRs). Therefore, this study proposes two mitigation strategies for tritium in FHRs: Double-Wall Heat eXchanger with a Tritium Carrier (DWHX-TC) option and Single-Wall Heat eXchanger with a Tritium Barrier (SWHX-TB) option. For the DWHX-TC option, two tube surface configurations, i.e., plain and fluted tubes, and four tritium carriers, i.e., helium, FLiBe, FLiNaK, and KF-ZrF 4 , are initially considered, among which the best tube configuration and promising tritium carrier are then selected and used for design optimization of the DWHX. For the SWHX-TB option, two cases, tritium barriers with and without cracks, are investigated in this study. In addition, the two mitigation strategies are evaluated by an in-house, one-dimensional, coupled HEat and MAss Transfer (HEMAT) code developed to predict the leakage rate of tritium in nuclear systems. Our analysis shows that (1) a double-wall configuration using fluted tubes as both the inner and outer tubes is better than other double-wall configurations investigated; (2) helium, as a tritium carrier, is superior to other candidates, including FLiBe, FLiNaK, and KF-ZrF 4 ; (3) the leakage rate of tritium (into the atmosphere) is reduced from 3400 Ci/day, taking the Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (AHTR) as a reference, to 4.0 Ci/day for an optimum design of the DWHX-TC option using helium as the tritium carrier and 1.7 Ci/day for an optimum design of the SWHX-TB option using 30-µm thick silicon carbide (SiC) as the tritium barrier (no cracks); and (4) potential cracks in tritium barriers may significantly deteriorate mass transfer performance of the SWHX-TB option. For example, a cracking rate of 0.1% leads to an increase of 694.1% in the leakage rate under the conditions investigated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mechanism for Recent Production of Liquid Water on Mars

Though Mars is a cold, dry planet, with respect to the thermal stability of liquid water at low altitudes it is not terribly different from comparably cold places on Earth. In dry air such water would evaporate faster on Mars, at a rate comparable to a 60 C hot spring on Earth, but the heat loss associated with that evaporation would be mitigated by the poor thermal convection in the thin Martian air. Even at higher altitudes where the atmospheric pressure does not reach the triple point of water, liquid water might theoretically exist in a low-vapor pressure form such as wet soil, in a briny solution, or simply under a layer of dust or snow. The theoretical stability of liquid water does not suggest its occurrence, either on Mars or in Antarctica. In fact, global models have suggested that locations capable of providing sufficient heat for melting are, precisely for that reason, too dry for water to be present. However, the temperature of irregular local structures such as trenches or craters can be markedly warmer than those of the uniform surfaces of global models. The work described here suggests a plausible scenario in which seasonal liquid water might be produced locally, in sheltered locations, through a process of condensation, cold-trapping, buffering, and melting. While the amounts produced in the present climate would be small, copious amounts of meltwater may have been produced at other phases of the orbital cycle, as recently as 20,000 years ago.

Hecht, M. H.↗

Lunar Base Life Support Failures

Dynamic simulation of the lunar outpost habitat life support was undertaken to investigate the impact of life support failures and to investigate responses. Some preparatory static analysis for the Lunar Outpost life support model, an earlier version of the model, and an investigation into the impact of Extravehicular Activity (EVA) were reported previously. (Jones, 2008-01-2184, 2008-01-2017) The earlier model was modified to include possible resupply delays, power failures, recycling system failures, and atmosphere and other material storage failures. Most failures impact the lunar outpost water balance and can be mitigated by reducing water usage. Food solids, nitrogen can be obtained only by resupply from Earth. The most time urgent failure is a lass of carbon dioxide removal capability. Life support failures might be survivable if effective operational solutions are provided in the system design.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Space Environmental Effects on Materials and Processes

The Materials and Processes (M&P) Branch of the Structural Engineering Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) seeks to uphold the production of dependable space hardware through materials research, which fits into NASA's purpose of advancing human exploration, use, and development of space. The Space Environmental Effects projects fully support these Agency goals. Two tasks were assigned to support M&P. Both assignments were to further the research of material behavior outside of Earth's atmosphere in order to determine which materials are most durable and safe to use in space for mitigating risks. One project, the Materials on International Space Station Experiments (MISSE) task, was to compile data from International Space Station (ISS) experiments to pinpoint beneficial space hardware. The other project was researching the effects on composite materials of exposure to high doses of radiation for a Lunar habitat project.

Sabbann, Leslie M.↗

Fundamentals of Free-Space Optical Communications

Free-space optical communication systems potentially gain many dBs over RF systems. There is no upper limit on the theoretically achievable photon efficiency when the system is quantum-noise-limited: a) Intensity modulations plus photon counting can achieve arbitrarily high photon efficiency, but with sub-optimal spectral efficiency. b) Quantum-ideal number states can achieve the ultimate capacity in the limit of perfect transmissivity. Appropriate error correction codes are needed to communicate reliably near the capacity limits. Poisson-modeled noises, detector losses, and atmospheric effects must all be accounted for: a) Theoretical models are used to analyze performance degradations. b) Mitigation strategies derived from this analysis are applied to minimize these degradations.

deep space communications↗

On The Development of Additive Construction Technologies for Application to Development of Lunar/Martian Surface Structures Using In-Situ Materials

For long-duration missions on other planetary bodies, the use of in-situ materials will become increasingly critical. As man's presence on these bodies expands, so must the breadth of the structures required to accommodate them including habitats, laboratories, berms, radiation shielding for natural radiation and surface reactors, garages, solar storm shelters, greenhouses, etc. Planetary surface structure manufacturing and assembly technologies that incorporate in-situ resources provide options for autonomous, affordable, pre-positioned environments with radiation shielding features and protection from micrometeorites, exhaust plume debris, and other hazards. This is important because gamma and particle radiation constitute a serious but reducible threat to long-term survival of human beings, electronics, and other materials in space environments. Also, it is anticipated that surface structures will constitute the primary mass element of lunar or Martian launch requirements. The ability to use in-situ materials to construct these structures will provide a benefit in the reduction of up-mass that would otherwise make long-term Moon or Mars structures cost prohibitive. The ability to fabricate structures in situ brings with it the ability to repair these structures, which allows for self-sufficiency necessary for long-duration habitation. Previously, under the auspices of the MSFC In Situ Fabrication and Repair (ISFR) project and more recently, under the joint MSFC/KSC Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME) project, the MSFC Surface Structures Group has been developing materials and construction technologies to support future planetary habitats with in situ resources. One such technology, known as Contour Crafting (additive construction), is shown in Figure 1, along with a typical structure fabricated using this technology. This paper will present the results to date of these efforts, including development of novel nozzle concepts for advanced layer deposition using the Contour Crafting process. This process, conceived initially for rapid development of cementitious structures on Earth, also lends itself exceptionally well to the automated fabrication of planetary surface structures using minimally processed regolith as aggregate, and imported binder material or binders developed from in situ materials. This process has been used successfully in the fabrication of construction elements using lunar regolith simulant and Mars regolith simulant, both with various binder materials. These binder materials have resulted from extensive evaluation and include both "imported" binder materials that might be launched from Earth as well as some binder materials that can theoretically also be derived from existing regolith materials. They were chosen to 1) reduce penetrating radiation as much as possible, primarily with hydrogen-bearing polymers, 2) attempt to provide an air-tight structure, 3) sufficiently mix and adsorb to regolith grains for strength, 4) maximize tolerance to day-night thermal cycling, 5) possibly increase electrical conductivity to dissipate any accumulated static charge, and 6) ease their application on planetary surfaces (specifically, the accommodation of reduced atmosphere and lack of heat sinks). Some of these materials have been tested with respect to radiation mitigation, micrometeorite resistance, and resistance to larger, slower-traveling pieces of regolith impinging on the surface, simulating nearby launch and landing activities. Conceptual designs for a Continuous Feedstock Delivery/Mixing System (CFDMS) will also be presented and future planned activities will be discussed as well.

Werkheiser, Niki↗

The Intercalibration of Geostationary Visible Imagers Using Operational Hyperspectral SCIAMACHY Radiances

Spectral band differences between sensors can complicate the process of intercalibration of a visible sensor against a reference sensor. This can be best addressed by using a hyperspectral reference sensor whenever possible because they can be used to accurately mitigate the band differences. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using operational Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) large-footprint hyperspectral radiances to calibrate geostationary Earth-observing (GEO) sensors. Near simultaneous nadir overpass measurements were used to compare the temporal calibration of SCIAMACHY with Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer band radiances, which were found to be consistent to within 0.44% over seven years. An operational SCIAMACHY/GEO ray-matching technique was presented, along with enhancements to improve radiance pair sampling. These enhancements did not bias the underlying intercalibration and provided enough sampling to allow up to monthly monitoring of the GEO sensor degradation. The results of the SCIAMACHY/GEO intercalibration were compared with other operational four-year Meteosat-9 0.65-μm calibration coefficients and were found to be within 1% of the gain, and more importantly, it had one of the lowest temporal standard errors of all the methods. This is more than likely that the GEO spectral response function could be directly applied to the SCIAMACHY radiances, whereas the other operational methods inferred a spectral correction factor. This method allows the validation of the spectral corrections required by other methods.

Doelling, David R.↗

A tutorial assessment of atmospheric height uncertainties for high-precision satellite altimeter missions to monitor ocean currents

Information from a number of sources is synthesized, and an error budget is deduced giving the projected overall height uncertainty correction for a suggested next-generation high-precision radar altimeter. Uncertainties deriving from the wet and dry troposphere, clouds, and the ionosphere are reviewed. It is assumed that the next generation of precision altimeters will be dual-frequency (13.5 and 6 GHz) and will be designed to correct for the ionospheric error. The altimeter-carrying satellite will have a nadir pointing near coincident-beam dual-frequency microwave radiometer for mitigating the wet tropospheric uncertainty. Whereas there are a number of caveats, the combined uncertainty in the height correction due to the atmosphere for the suggested system should be nominally 3 cm rms compared with at least 6 cm associated with the Seasat-A mission. Improvements in height resolution of the kind discussed here are considered vital for future satellite missions designed to monitor ocean currents.

Goldhirsh, J.↗

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Short Note on the Derivation of the Atmospheric Transfer Function for a Communications Channel and its Connection to Associated Propagation Parameters

The systems engineering description of a wideband communications channel is provided which is based upon the fundamental propagation aspects of the problem. In particular, the well known time variant description of a channel is formulated from the basic multiple scattering processes that occur in a random propagation medium. Such a connection is required if optimal processing methods are to be applied to mitigate the deleterious random fading and multipathing of the channel. An example is given which demonstrates how the effective bandwidth of the channel is diminished due to atmospheric propagation impairments.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Ambient ion focusing from a field-free region to a detector: enhanced signal for explosives and drug detection with mass spectrometry

This study demonstrates ion focusing at ambient pressure and increased ion signal by creating a voltage gradient from a field-free region to a detector, thereby improving the detection of chemicals, such as explosives and drugs. At ambient pressure, ion loss and resulting signal reduction pose challenges that limit detection sensitivity in analytical instruments. Techniques to increase sensitivity, such as atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS), extend ion-molecule reaction times but result in significant overall ion loss due to diffusion. Ion manipulation techniques, though challenging at ambient pressure, can mitigate these losses by concentrating ions toward the detector inlet. Using SIMION, ion trajectories were modeled with a voltage gradient applied between a flow tube and a detector, revealing ion focusing at ambient pressure. Experimental verification with an atmospheric flow tube employed both mass spectrometry and Faraday plate detectors to measure ion beam profiles across varying flow rates, tube diameters, and voltage gradients. Application of a voltage gradient effectively directed ions to the axial center of the flow tube, narrowed ion beam width, and increased signal intensity by 5 to 10 times compared to conditions without a voltage gradient. This ion focusing approach shows promise for improving sensitivity in ambient-pressure instruments. This technique has the potential to enhance detection levels in security and forensic applications, with particular benefits for field-portable devices used at checkpoints to identify explosives and drugs.

ambient pressure↗

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth estimates over the continental U.S. during the 2020 wildfire season: Roles of smoke and land cover

Wildfires produce smoke that can affect an area >1000 times the burn extent, with far-reaching human health, ecologic, and economic impacts. Accurately estimating aerosol load within smoke plumes is therefore crucial for understanding and mitigating these impacts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the latest Collection 6.1 MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm in estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) across the U.S. during the historic 2020 wildfire season. We compared satellite-based MAIAC AOD to ground-based AERONET AOD measurements during no-, light-, medium-, and heavy-smoke conditions identified using the Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product. This smoke product consists of maximum extent smoke polygons digitized by analysts using visible band imagery and classified according to smoke density. We also examined the strength of the correlations between satellite- and ground-based AOD for major land cover types under various smoke density levels. MAIAC performed well in estimating AOD during smoke-affected conditions. Correlations between MAIAC and AERONET AOD were strong for medium- (r = 0.91) and heavy-smoke (r = 0.90) density, and MAIAC estimates of AOD showed little bias relative to ground-based AERONET measurements (normalized mean bias = 3 % for medium, 5 % for heavy smoke). During two high AOD, heavy smoke episodes, MAIAC underestimated ground-based AERONET AOD under mixed aerosol (i.e., smoke and dust; median bias = −0.08) and overestimated AOD under smoke-dominated (median bias = 0.02) aerosol. MAIAC most overestimated ground-based AERONET AOD over barren land (mean NMB = 48 %). Our findings indicate that MODIS MAIAC can provide robust estimates of AOD as smoke density increases in coming years. Increased frequency of mixed aerosol and expansion of developed land could affect the performance of the MAIAC algorithm in the future, however, with implications for evaluating wildfire-associated health and welfare effects and air quality standards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Harvest Intensity Effects on Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity Are Dependent on Regional Climate in Douglas-Fir Forests of British Columbia

Temperate forests provide crucial ecosystems services as living sinks for atmospheric carbon (C) and repositories of biodiversity. Applying harvesting at intensities that minimize losses offers one means for mitigating global change. However, little is known of overstory retention levels that best conserve ecosystem services in different regional climates, and likewise as climate changes. To quantify the effect of harvest intensity on C stocks and biodiversity, we compared five harvesting intensities (clearcutting, seedtree retention, 30% patch retention, 60% patch retention, and uncut controls) across a climatic aridity gradient that ranged from humid to semi-arid in the Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of British Columbia. We found that increased harvesting intensity reduced total ecosystem, above ground, and live tree C stocks 1 year post-harvest, and the magnitude of these losses were negatively correlated with climatic aridity. In humid forests, total ecosystem C ranged from 50% loss following clearcut harvest, to 30% loss following large patch retention harvest. In arid forests this range was 60 to 8% loss, respectively. Where lower retention harvests are sought, the small patch retention treatment protected both C stocks and biodiversity in the arid forests, whereas the seedtree method performed as well or better in the humid forests. Below ground C stocks declined by an average of 29% after harvesting, with almost all of the loss from the forest floor and none from the mineral soil. Of the secondary pools, standing and coarse deadwood declined in all harvesting treatments regardless of cutting intensity or aridity, while C stocks in fine fuels and stumps increased. The understory plant C pool declined across all harvesting intensities in the humid forests, but increased in arid forests. Shannon’s diversity and richness of tree and bryoid species declined with harvesting intensity, where tree species losses were greatest in the humid forests and bryoid losses greatest in arid forests. Shrub and herb species were unaffected. This study showed that the highest retention level was best at reducing losses in C stocks and biodiversity, and clearcutting the poorest, and while partial retention of canopy trees can reduce losses in these ecosystem services, outcomes will vary with climatic aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗