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DOE OSTI2023

Forecasts on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies with Current and Future Kinematic Observations

We forecast parameter uncertainties on the mass profile of a typical Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxy (dSph) using the spherical Jeans equation and Fisher matrix formalism. For a Draco-like system we show that radial velocity measurements for 1000 individual stars can constrain the mass contained within the effective radius of a dSph to within 5%. This is consistent with constraints extracted from current observational data. We compare two systems, a cusp and core, and demonstrate that a minimum sample of 100,000 (10,000) stars with both radial and proper motions measurements is required to disentangle their inner slopes at the 2σ (1σ) level. If using the log-slope measured at the half-light radius as a proxy for differentiating between a core or cusp slope, only 1000 line-of-sight and proper motions measurements are required; however, we show this choice of radius does not always unambiguously differentiate between core and cusped profiles. Once observational errors are below half the value of the intrinsic dispersion, improving the observational precision yields little change in the density profile uncertainties. The choice of priors in our profile shape analysis plays a crucial role when the number of stars in a system is less than 100 but does not affect the resulting uncertainties for larger kinematic samples. Our predicted 2D confidence regions agree well with those from a full likelihood analysis run on a mock kinematic data set taken from the Gaia Challenge, validating our Fisher predictions. Our methodology is flexible, allowing us to predict density profile uncertainties for a wide range of current and future kinematic data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracer-field cross-correlations with k -nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT In astronomy and cosmology significant effort is devoted to characterizing and understanding spatial cross-correlations between points – e.g galaxy positions, high energy neutrino arrival directions, X-ray and AGN sources, and continuous fields – e.g. weak lensing meiand Cosmic Microwave Background maps. Recently, we introduced the k-nearest neighbour (kNN) formalism to better characterize the clustering of discrete (point) data sets. Here, we extend it to the point – field cross-correlations analysis. It combines kNN measurements of the point data set with measurements of the field smoothed at many scales. The resulting statistics are sensitive to all orders in the joint clustering of the points and the field. We demonstrate that this approach, unlike the 2-pt cross-correlation, can measure the statistical dependence of two data sets even when there are no linear (Gaussian) correlations between them. We further demonstrate that this framework is far more effective than the two point function in detecting cross-correlations when the continuous field is contaminated by high levels of noise. For a particularly high level of noise, the cross-correlation between haloes and the underlying matter field in a cosmological simulation, between 10 h−1 Mpc and 30 h−1 Mpc, is detected at >5σ significance using the technique presented here, when the two-point cross-correlation significance is ∼1σ. Finally, we show that kNN cross-correlations of haloes and the matter field can be well modelled on quasi-linear scales using the Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) framework, with the same set of bias parameters as are used for 2-pt cross-correlations. The substantial improvement in the statistical power of detecting cross-correlations using this method makes it a promising tool for various cosmological applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, in this work, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole–neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The anomaly of the CMB power with the latest Planck data

Abstract The lack of power anomaly is an unexpected feature observed at large angular scales in the maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) produced by the COBE, WMAP andPlancksatellites. This signature, which consists in a missing of power with respect to that predicted by the ΛCDM model, might hint at a new cosmological phase before the standard inflationary era.The main point of this paper is taking into account the latestPlanckpolarisation data to investigate how the CMB polarisation improves the understanding of this feature. With this aim, we apply to the latestPlanckdata, both PR3 (2018) and PR4 (2020) releases, a new class of estimators capable of evaluating this anomaly by considering temperature and polarisation data both separately and in a jointly way. This is the first time that the PR4 dataset has been used to study this anomaly. To critically evaluate this feature, taking into account the residuals of known systematic effects present in thePlanckdatasets, we analyse the cleaned CMB maps using different combinations of sky masks, harmonic range and binning on the CMB multipoles.Our analysis shows that the estimator based only on temperature data confirms the presence of a lack of power with a lower-tail-probability (LTP), depending on the component separation method, ≤ 0.33% and ≤ 1.76% for PR3 and PR4, respectively. To our knowledge, the LTP≤ 0.33% for the PR3 dataset is the lowest one present in the literature obtained fromPlanck2018 data, considering thePlanckconfidence mask. We find significant differences between these two datasets when polarisation is taken into account most likely due to a different level of systematics. Especially, the analysis with PR3 data, unlike that with PR4, seems to point towards a lack of power at large scales also for polarisation.Moreover, we also show that for the PR3 dataset the inclusion of the subdominant polarisation information provides estimates that are less likely accepted in a ΛCDM cosmological model than the only-temperature analysis over the entire harmonic-range considered. In particular, at ℓ max = 26, we found that no simulation has a value as low as the data for all the pipelines.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding PDF uncertainty in W boson mass measurements*

Abstract We study the dependence of the transverse mass distribution of charged leptons and the missing energy on parton distributions (PDFs) adapted to W boson mass measurements at the CDF and ATLAS experiments. We compare the shape variations of the distribution induced by different PDFs and find that the spread of predictions from different PDF sets can be significantly larger than the PDF uncertainty predicted by a specific PDF set. We suggest analyzing the experimental data using up-to-date PDFs to gain a better understanding of the PDF uncertainties in W boson mass measurements. We also perform a series of Lagrange multiplier scans to identify the constraints on the transverse mass distribution imposed by individual data sets in the CT18 global analysis. In the case of the CDF measurement, the distribution is mostly sensitive to d -quark PDFs in the intermediate x region, which are largely constrained by DIS and Drell-Yan data on deuteron targets and Tevatron lepton charge asymmetry data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Tutorial Set to Prepare for Science with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

In this poster the Rubin Observatory's Community Science team (CST) presents its current suite of tutorials, which are designed to help people make use of simulated data sets in preparation for the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We will show examples of the tutorial contents, provide custom learning modules for different astronomical fields, and describe the online environment for data analysis (the Rubin Science Platform; RSP). We will also supply a checklist for how to obtain an RSP account and access the tutorials. All are welcome to drop by the poster or the Rubin booth in the exhibit hall with questions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Tutorial Set to Prepare for Science with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

In this poster the Rubin Observatory's Community Science team (CST) presents its current suite of tutorials, which are designed to help people make use of simulated data sets in preparation for the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We will show examples of the tutorial contents, provide custom learning modules for different astronomical fields, and describe the online environment for data analysis (the Rubin Science Platform; RSP). We will also supply a checklist for how to obtain an RSP account and access the tutorials. All are welcome to drop by the poster or the Rubin booth in the exhibit hall with questions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic properties of ultralight scalar field gradients

Ultralight axion-like particles are well-motivated dark matter candidates that are the target of numerous direct detection efforts. In the vicinity of the Solar System, such particles can be treated as oscillating scalar fields. The velocity dispersion of the Milky Way determines a coherence time of about 10 6 oscillations, beyond which the amplitude of the axion field fluctuates stochastically. Any analysis of data from an axion direct detection experiment must carefully account for this stochastic behavior to properly interpret the results. This is especially true for experiments sensitive to the gradient of the axion field that are unable to collect data for many coherence times. Indeed, the direction, in addition to the amplitude, of the axion field gradient fluctuates stochastically. We present the first complete stochastic treatment for the gradient of the axion field, including multiple computationally efficient methods for performing likelihood-based data analysis, which can be applied to any axion signal, regardless of coherence time. Additionally, we demonstrate that ignoring the stochastic behavior of the gradient of the axion field can potentially result in failure to discover a true axion signal

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Halo-independent analysis of direct dark matter detection through electron scattering

Sub-GeV mass dark matter particles whose collisions with nuclei would not deposit sufficient energy to be detected, could instead be revealed through their interaction with electrons. Analyses of data from direct detection experiments usually require assuming a local dark matter halo velocity distribution. In the halo-independent analysis method, properties of this distribution are instead inferred from direct dark matter detection data, which allows then to compare different data without making any assumption on the uncertain local dark halo characteristics. Furthermore, this method has so far been developed for and applied to dark matter scattering off nuclei. Here we demonstrate how this analysis can be applied to scattering off electrons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching for axionlike particles from core-collapse supernovae with Fermi LAT’s low-energy technique

Light axionlike particles (ALPs) are expected to be abundantly produced in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), resulting in a ~ 10 -second long burst of ALPs. These particles subsequently undergo conversion into gamma rays in external magnetic fields to produce a long gamma-ray burst (GRB) with a characteristic spectrum peaking in the 30–100-MeV energy range. At the same time, CCSNe are invoked as progenitors of ordinary long GRBs, rendering it relevant to conduct a comprehensive search for ALP spectral signatures using the observations of long GRBs with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We perform a data-driven sensitivity analysis to determine CCSN distances for which a detection of an ALP signal is possible with the LAT’s low-energy technique which, in contrast to the standard LAT analysis, allows for a a larger effective area for energies down to 30 MeV. Assuming an ALP mass m a ≲ 10 - 10 eV and ALP-photon coupling g a γ = 5.3 × 10 - 12 GeV - 1 , values considered and deduced in ALP searches from SN1987A, we find that the distance limit ranges from ~ 0.5 to ~ 10 Mpc , depending on the sky location and the CCSN progenitor mass. Furthermore, we select a candidate sample of 24 GRBs and carry out a model comparison analysis in which we consider different GRB spectral models with and without an ALP signal component. We find that the inclusion of an ALP contribution does not result in any statistically significant improvement of the fits to the data. Finally, we discuss the statistical method used in our analysis and the underlying physical assumptions, the feasibility of setting upper limits on the ALP-photon coupling, and give an outlook on future telescopes in the context of ALP searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extended dark energy analysis using DESI DR2 BAO measurements

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) second data release cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck cosmic microwave background observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and nonparametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the 𝑤 0⁢ 𝑤 𝑎⁢ CDM (cold dark matter) key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by nonparametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian processes, we find that extending Λ⁢ CDM to include a two-parameter 𝑤⁡(𝑧) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying 𝑤 ≥ −1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (𝑧 ≲ 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the Discovery Power of the Dark Energy Survey Gravitational Wave Program in Its Fourth Observing Campaign

The universe is growing at an accelerated rate, yet the several experiments and science cases used to measure this property yield conflicting results for the rate. Known colloquially as the Hubble tension problem, this discrepancy calls for a novel measurement of the Hubble Constant, H0, in order to be resolved. The Dark Energy Survey Gravitational Wave group (DESGW) aims to relieve this tension by performing a standard sirens measurement of H0 independent of traditional methods. To do so in the current era of data abundance and limited telescope time demands a robust, optimized, and complete science software pipeline to carefully balance the transition from gravitational wave data to state-of-the-art images, images to photometric data, and photometric data to identification and analysis of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave signals. This thesis details the contributions of the author to the DESGW Search & Discovery Pipeline for the fourth observing run of the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA gravitational wave detector network, as well as the science applications that have been pursued.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Detection of Habitable Trojan Planets in the Kepler Circumbinary Systems

We present the results of a study of the prospect of detecting habitable Trojan planets in the Kepler Habitable Zone circumbinary planetary systems (Kepler-16, -47, -453, -1647, and -1661). We integrated the orbits of 10,000 separate N-body systems (N = 4, 6), each with a one Earth-mass body in a randomly selected orbit near the L {sub 4} and L {sub 5} Lagrangian points of the host HZ circumbinary planet. We find that stable Trojan planets are restricted to a narrow range of semimajor axes in all five systems and limited to small eccentricities in Kepler-16, -47, and -1661. To assess the prospect of the detection of these habitable Trojan planets, we calculated the amplitudes of the variations they cause in the transit timing of their host bodies. Results show that the mean amplitudes of the transit timing variations (TTVs) correlate with the mass of the transiting planet and range from 70 minutes for Kepler-16b to 390 minutes for Kepler-47c. Our analysis indicates that the TTVs of the circumbinary planets caused by these Trojan bodies fall within the detectable range of timing precision obtained from the Kepler telescope’s long-cadence data. The latter points to Kepler data as a viable source to search for habitable Trojan planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Search for Astrophysical Neutrinos from 1FLE Blazars with IceCube

The majority of astrophysical neutrinos have undetermined origins. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed astrophysical neutrinos but has not yet identified their sources. Blazars are promising source candidates, but previous searches for neutrino emission from populations of blazars detected in ≳GeV gamma rays have not observed any significant neutrino excess. Recent findings in multimessenger astronomy indicate that high-energy photons, coproduced with high-energy neutrinos, are likely to be absorbed and reemitted at lower energies. Thus, lower-energy photons may be better indicators of TeV–PeV neutrino production. This paper presents the first time-integrated stacking search for astrophysical neutrino emission from MeV-detected blazars in the first Fermi Large Area Telescope low energy (1FLE) catalog using ten years of IceCube muon–neutrino data. The results of this analysis are found to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis. Assuming an E -2 neutrino spectrum and proportionality between the blazars MeV gamma-ray fluxes and TeV–PeV neutrino flux, the upper limit on the 1FLE blazar energy-scaled neutrino flux is determined to be 1.64 x 10 -12 TeV cm -2 s -1 at 90% confidence level. This upper limit is approximately 1% of IceCube’s diffuse muon–neutrino flux measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗