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At least 289 records · Page 16

The Anomalous Winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki Eruption or an Analog of the 2009-2010 Winter to Blame?

The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

D'Arrigo, Rosanne↗

Kinetic simulations of anomalous resistivity in high-temperature current carrying plasmas

Anomalous resistivity caused by lower hybrid drift instabilities (LHDIs) has been extensively studied in the literature, and has been invoked to explain the rates of magnetic diffusion and plasma profile evolution in the low-density plasma periphery of theta and screw pinch plasmas. In this article, we present a fully kinetic simulation study of LHDIs with a realistic mass ratio using the particle-in-cell code Chicago over a large range of drift speeds, 0.5 < v$^{2}_{di}$/v$^{2}_{ti}$ < 14.5, plasma β, β ≥ 2×10 –5 , and temperature ratios, 0.1 < T e /T i < 10. The resistivity quantified from the simulations is compared with the analytic estimates from the literature and a generalized resistivity expression is presented, which can be applied over the entire range of plasma environments that were simulated in this study. This expression uses the amplitude of the LHDI fluctuations resulting from instability saturation by electron resonance broadening rather than plateau formation, current relaxation, or ion trapping. The generalized resistivity expression is appropriate for full-scale fluid simulations that encounter a large range of plasma conditions, and has better agreement with the resistivity quantified from kinetic simulations than previous expressions in the literature, particularly at low plasma β. Anomalous resistivity has also been considered as an explanation of the rapid magnetic field dissipation during magnetic reconnection events at large plasma β. At a large β, the magnetic field fluctuations of LHDIs can dominate the electrostatic fluctuations and this article investigates enhanced collisionality due to the nonlinear magnetic force, δJ×δB/c.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Extreme Case of Magnetars

Magnetars are magnetically powered rotating neutron stars with extreme magnetic fields (over 10(exp 14) Gauss). They were discovered in the X- and gamma-rays where they predominantly emit their radiation. Very few sources (roughly 18) have been found since their discovery in 1987. NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope was launched June 11, 2009; since then the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) recorded emission from four magnetar sources. Two of these were brand new sources, SGR J0501+4516, discovered with Swift and extensively monitored with Swift and GBM, SGR J0418+5729, discovered with GBM and the Interplanetary Network (IPN). A third was SGR J1550-5418, a source originally classified as an Anomalous X-ray Pulsar (AXP 1E1547.0-5408), but exhibiting a very prolific outburst with over 400 events recorded in January 2009. In my talk I will give a short history of magnetars and describe how this, once relatively esoteric field, has emerged as a link between several astrophysical areas including Gamma-Ray Bursts. Finally, I will describe the exciting new results of Fermi in this field and the current status of our knowledge of the magnetar population properties and magnetic fields.

Kouveliotou, Chryssa↗

Discovery of multimechanisms of screw dislocation interaction in bcc iron from open-ended saddle point searches

Dislocation motion and interactions determine mechanical properties in body-centered cubic (bcc) metallic materials. However, studying mechanisms for the screw dislocation interaction is fundamentally challenging since many underlying processes involve mesotimescales and atomistic resolution, currently inaccessible by either experimental techniques or continuum theoretical methods. Here, in this paper, we develop a computational capability based on self-evolving atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) to sample the critical events and saddle point energies related to screw dislocations and their junctions. The method is first validated by calculating the stress dependence of Peierls barriers and formation energies of kink pairs and cross-slip kink pairs on a single screw dislocation in bcc iron. Then the method is applied to a binary junction of a pair of intersecting screw dislocations, the structure of which is crucial for low-temperature plastic deformation. We identify three important mechanisms: coplanar cross-slipping, jog-pinning, and a previously unknown unzipping mechanism during the evolution of the binary junction. The mechanisms are then further validated using classical molecular dynamics simulations. The computational capability developed in this paper provides an effective tool to evaluate screw dislocation related thermally activated events in complex stress conditions. The mechanisms discovered in this paper provide critical insights into temperature dependence of the anomalous slip, a breakdown of the Schmidt law, during the plastic deformation in bcc iron and can be generalized to other bcc metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Differential spacecraft charging on the geostationary operational environmental satellites

Subsystems aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 4 and 5 showed instances of anomalous changes in state corresponding to false commands. Evidence linking the anomalous changes to geomagnetic activity, and presumably static discharges generated by spacecraft differential charging induced by substorm particle injection events is presented. The anomalies are shown to be correlated with individual substorms as monitored by stations of the North American Magnetometer Chain. The relative frequency of the anomalies is shown to be a function of geomagnetic activity. Finally a least squares fit to the time delay between substorm initiation and spacecraft anomaly as a function of spacecraft local time is shown to be consistent with injected electron populations with energy in the range 10 keV to 15 keV, in agreement with present understanding of the spacecraft charging mechanism. The spacecraft elements responsible for the differential charging were not satisfactorily identified. That question is currently under investigation.

Farthing, W. H.↗

A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed and used to study the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. With no anomalous external forcing, the coupled model reproduces certain key features of the observed phenomenon, including the recurrence of warm events at irregular intervals with a preference for three to four years. It is shown that the mean sea surface temperature, wind and ocean current fields determine the characteristic spatial structure of ENSO anomalies. The tendency for phase-locking of anomalies is explained in terms of a variation in coupling strength associated with the annual cycle in the mean fields. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the amplitude and the time scale of the oscillation are sensitive to several parameters that affect the strength of the atmosphere-ocean coupling. Stronger coupling implies larger oscillations with a longer timescale. A critical element of the model oscillation is the variability in the equatorial heat content of the upper ocean. Equatorial heat content increases prior to warm events and decreases sharply during the events. A theory for this variability and the associated transitions between non-El Nino and El Nino states is presented. Implications of the model results for the prediction of El Nino events are discussed.

Zebiak, Stephen E.↗

Permeability of rayon based polymer composites

Several types of anomalous rayon based phenolic behavior have been observed in post-fired nozzles and exit cones. Many of these events have been shown to be related to the development of internal gas pressure within the material. The development of internal gas pressure is a function of the amount of gas produced within the material and the rate at which that gas is allowed to escape. The latter property of the material is referred to as the material's permeability. The permeability of two dimensional carbonized rayon based phenolic composites is a function of material direction, temperature, and stress/strain state. Recently significant differences in the permeability of these materials has been uncovered which may explain their inconsistent performance. This paper summarizes what is known about the permeability of these materials to date and gives possible implications of these finding to the performance of these materials in an ablative environment.

Stokes, E. H.↗

Track vs Shower Discrimination in the Event Reconstruction of the ICARUS Experiment

The ICARUS collaboration has employed the 760-ton T600 liquid argon TPC detector in a successful three-year physics run at the underground LNGS laboratory, performing a sensitive search for LSND-like anomalous appearance in the CERN Neutrino to Gran Sasso beam, which contributed to the constraints on the allowed neutrino oscillation parameters to a narrow region around 1 eV. After a significant overhaul at CERN, the T600 detector has been installed at Fermilab. The detector commissioning phase lasted until June 2022, then ICARUS moved to data taking for neutrino oscillation physics collecting events from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam off-axis. The initial experiment goals are to either confirm or refute the claim by Neutrino-4 short-baseline reactor experiment, perform measurements of neutrino cross sections with the NuMI beam and several Beyond Standard Model searches. Then, ICARUS will jointly search for evidence of sterile neutrinos with the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND). In this contribution, we discuss recent changes to the standard TPC event reconstruction that uses Pandora, a pattern recognition software common to liquid argon-based detectors. In particular, we performed a new training of the Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) employed to separate track-like and shower-like reconstructed particles using Monte Carlo simulations of neutrino events from BNB in ICARUS. We compare the discrimination capabilities of the old and new BDT training and discuss further improvements of this algorithm.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

RSRM Nozzle Anomalous Throat Erosion Investigation Overview

In September, 1996, anomalous pocketing erosion was observed in the aft end of the throat ring of the nozzle of one of the reusable solid rocket motors (RSRM 56B) used on NASA's space transportation system (STS) mission 79. The RSRM throat ring is constructed of bias tape-wrapped carbon cloth/ phenolic (CCP) ablative material. A comprehensive investigation revealed necessary and sufficient conditions for occurrence of the pocketing event and provided rationale that the solid rocket motors for the subsequent mission, STS-80, were safe to fly. The nozzles of both of these motors also exhibited anomalous erosion similar to, but less extensive than that observed on STS-79. Subsequent to this flight, the investigation to identify both the specific causes and the corrective actions for elimination of the necessary and sufficient conditions for the pocketing erosion was intensified. A detailed fault tree approach was utilized to examine potential material and process contributors to the anomalous performance. The investigation involved extensive constituent and component material property testing, pedigree assessments, supplier audits, process audits, full scale processing test article fabrication and evaluation, thermal and thermostructural analyses, nondestructive evaluation, and material performance tests conducted using hot fire simulation in laboratory test beds and subscale and full scale solid rocket motor static test firings. This presentation will provide an over-view of the observed anomalous nozzle erosion and the comprehensive, fault-tree based investigation conducted to resolve this issue.

Clinton, R. G., Jr.↗

Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

Smale, Alan P.↗

Search for long-lived charged particles using large specific ionisation loss and time of flight in 140 fb −1 of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a search for massive, charged, long-lived particles with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. These particles are expected to move significantly slower than the speed of light. In this paper, two signal regions provide complementary sensitivity. In one region, events are selected with at least one charged-particle track with high transverse momentum, large specific ionisation measured in the pixel detector, and time of flight to the hadronic calorimeter inconsistent with the speed of light. In the other region, events are selected with at least two tracks of opposite charge which both have a high transverse momentum and an anomalously large specific ionisation. The search is sensitive to particles with lifetimes greater than about 3 ns with masses ranging from 200 GeV to 3 TeV. The results are interpreted to set constraints on the supersymmetric pair production of long-lived R-hadrons, charginos and staus, with mass limits extending beyond those from previous searches in broad ranges of lifetime.

beyond Standard Model↗

Carbon mineralization pathways in interfacial adsorbed water nanofilms

Carbon mineralization in humidified carbon dioxide offers a promising route to mitigate anthropogenic emissions in a world stressed by water security. Despite its technological importance, our understanding of carbonation in water-poor environments lags, as traditional dissolution-precipitation pathways struggle to explain the adsorbed water nanofilm-mediated reactivity. Here, we utilize in operando X-ray diffraction (XRD) and advanced molecular simulations to investigate nanoconfined reactions driving forsterite carbonation, the magnesium-rich olivine. By examining magnesium ion dissolution and transport in atomistic simulations of the forsterite-water-carbon dioxide interface and comparing these with the in operando XRD activation energies, we identify both processes as rate-limiting at saturation. Our simulations reveal a mechanistic view of interfacial carbonation, where dissolution and precipitation are mediated by anomalous quasi two-dimensional diffusion. The transport process involves intermittent diffusive hopping in the desorbed state, separated by crawling events that are spatially short but temporally long. This understanding transcends carbon mineralization, with implications for understanding the transport of contaminants in geosystems, the design of multifunctional materials, water desalination, and molecular recognition systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Chandra ACIS Observations of Jovian X-Ray Emission

On November 25 and 26, 1999, the Chandra X-ray spacecraft conducted a set of four 19,000 sec observations of Jupiter. The ACIS-S instrument configuration was used for its good low energy efficiency and spatial resolution. An anomalous response was obtained which was subsequently attributed to strong jovian infrared radiation penetrating the detector and piling up spurious events across the entire X-ray range. However, the pre-observation establishment of an offsetting bias field has allowed the recovery of data from that portion of Jupiter's disc which remained within the elevated portion of the bias field during the observation. This ranges from fewer than 3000 sec to the entire observing time for about 10% of the planet. Auroral emission is seen near both poles in each observation. The northern aurora ia overall more intense than the southern, consistent with prior Einstein and ROSAT Observatory results. The southern aurora shows more modulation with Jupiter's rotation than the northern. Spatial resolution has been improved by at least a factor of two over prior measurements but convincing evidence of structure has not been seen. Lower latitude emission, first observed by ROSAT, is confirmed with flux levels averaging more than a factor of five below peak auroral values. Pronounced variation in the observed emission has occurred over the observing period. The spectral response extends from 0.24 keV, below which noise dominates, to about 1.2 keV. For all four observations the spectrum is clearly enhanced between 0.45 and 0.85 keV. This is apparently unequivocal evidence that Jupiter's X-ray emission is the result of oxygen and perhaps sulfur ions precipitating into the planet's atmosphere, where they undergo charge exchange interactions. The identification of specific transitions lines in the spectrum is among the ongoing efforts. A bremsstrahlung component has not yet been identified.

Garmire, Gordon↗

Systematic Detection of Anomalous Ionospheric Perturbations Above LEOs From GNSS POD Data Including Possible Tsunami Signatures

In this article, we show the capability of a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) precise orbit determination (POD) low Earth orbit (LEO) data to detect anomalous ionospheric disturbances in the spectral range of the signals associated with earthquakes and tsunamis, applied to two of these events in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands during 2016. This is achieved thanks to the new PIES approach (POD-GNSS LEO Detrended Ionospheric Electron Content Significant Deviations). The significance of such ionospheric signals above the swarm LEOs is confirmed with different types of independent data: in situ electron density measurements provided by the Langmuir Probe (LP) onboard swarm LEOs, DORIS, and ground-based GNSS colocated measurements, as it is described in this article. In this way, we conclude the possible detection of the tsunami-related ionospheric gravity wave in PNG 2016 event, consistent with the most-recent theory, which shows that a tsunami (which is localized in space and time) excites a spectrum of gravity waves, some of which have faster horizontal phase speeds than the tsunami. We believe that this work shows as well the feasibility of a future potential monitoring system of ionospheric disturbances, to be made possible by hundreds of CubeSats with POD GNSS receivers among other appropriate sensors, and supported for real-time or near real-time confirmation and characterization by thousands of worldwide existing ground GNSS receivers.

Global Navigation Satellite System↗

Locations of termination shock and heliopause based on Voyager plasma and magnetic field data

The locations of the termination shock and the heliopause are studied taking into account the effects of pickup protons. The study uses available plasma and magnetic field data from Voyagers over a 14-year period (1978-1991) and Voyager observation of the 1992-93 radio emission event. Outside 30 AU, pickup protons have a significant influence on dynamical structures of the outer heliosphere. The solar wind is treated as a mixture of electrons, solar wind protons, and interstellar pickup protons. If the magnitude of the interstellar magnetic field B(sub int) is given, one can quantitatively study the motion and location of the termination shock. The location is anti-correlated with the sun spot number and the shock has an average speed of approx. 24 km/s. Because B(sub int) is poorly known, additional information is needed in studying the termination shock. Cummings, et al. have used observations of anomalous cosmic rays to estimate the location of the shock. The observations of the 1991 GMIR and GMIR shock and the 1992-93 radio emission event provide another handle for the study of the termination shock and the heliopause. After its penetration through the termination shock, the GMIR shock continued to propagate in the subsonic region of the solar wind and eventually interacted with the heliopause. This interaction produces a transmitted shock propagating outward in the interstellar medium and a reflected shock propagating inward toward the sun in the subsonic solar wind. The plasma frequencies behind the reflected and the transmitted shock can be, respectively, responsible for the 2- and 3-kHz radio emissions. Taking into account the effects of pickup protons we found that the average locations of the termination shock and the heliopause in 1991-92 are at approximately 66 AU and 150 AU, respectively.

Whang, Y. C.↗

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗