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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules

A thermoelectric power generator consists of an oven box and a solar cooker/solar reflector unit. The solar reflector concentrates sunlight into heat and transfers the heat into the oven box via a heat pipe. The oven box unit is surrounded by five thermoelectric modules and is located at the bottom end of the solar reflector. When the heat is pumped into one side of the thermoelectric module and ejected from the opposite side at ambient temperatures, an electrical current is produced. Typical temperature accumulation in the solar reflector is approximately 200 C (392 F). The heat pipe then transfers heat into the oven box with a loss of about 40 percent. At the ambient temperature of about 20 C (68 F), the temperature differential is about 100 C (180 F) apart. Each thermoelectric module, generates about 6 watts of power. One oven box with five thermoelectric modules produces about 30 watts. The system provides power for unattended instruments in remote areas, such as space colonies and space vehicles, and in polar and other remote regions on Earth.

Saiz, John R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exergy Analysis of a Convective Heat Pump Dryer Integrated with a Membrane Energy Recovery Ventilator

To increase energy efficiency, heat pump dryers and membrane dryers have been proposed to replace conventional fossil fuel dryers. Both conventional and heat pump dryers require substantial energy for condensing and reheating, while “active” membrane systems require vacuum pumps that are insufficiently developed. Lower temperature dehumidification systems make efficient use of membrane energy recovery ventilators (MERVs) that do not need vacuum pumps, but their high heat losses and lack of vapor selectivity have prevented their use in industrial drying. In this work, we propose an insulating membrane energy recovery ventilator for moisture removal from drying exhaust air, thereby reducing sensible heat loss from the dehumidification process and reheating energy. The second law analysis of the proposed system is carried out and compared with a baseline convective heat pump dryer. Irreversibilities in each component under different ambient temperatures (5–35 °C) and relative humidity (5–95%) are identified. At an ambient temperature of 35 °C, the proposed system substantially reduces sensible heat loss (47–60%) in the dehumidification process, resulting in a large reduction in condenser load (45–50%) compared to the baseline system. The evaporator in the proposed system accounts for up to 59% less irreversibility than the baseline system. A maximum of 24.5% reduction in overall exergy input is also observed. The highest exergy efficiency of 10.2% is obtained at an ambient condition of 35 °C and 5% relative humidity, which is more than twice the efficiency of the baseline system under the same operating condition.

Balaraman, Anand (ORCID:0000000218355788)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental investigation of low velocity and high temperature solid particle impact erosion wear

Next generation Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants utilizing solid particles as the heat transfer medium (HTM) are expected to achieve greater operational efficiencies. However, the erosion from the solid particles can cause significant damage to component materials. Low particle speeds (1–2 m/s) are proposed as a means of preventing excessive damage to containment materials. Within the current investigation, solid particle erosion of three potential containment materials, stainless-steel grade 316L, a nickel alloy (Inconel 740H), and a refractory material (Tufcrete 60 M), are examined at a particle impact speed of 1.6 m/s. CarboBead-HSP 40/70 particles, a candidate HTM for CSP systems, impact the specimens at a relatively high impact angle of 60° based on containment design criteria. Experiments were conducted at ambient temperature and 800 °C to examine erosion of the materials at very low impact speeds and determine how temperature effects erosion. Initial results revealed surprising outcomes inconsistent with available literature: ambient temperature erosion of SS316L is an order of magnitude lower than IN740H, but erosion (erosion-corrosion) of SS316L at 800 °C surpasses IN740H by two orders of magnitude. Furthermore, results suggest removal of oxide layers (erosion-corrosion) is responsible for the significant erosion that was observed even at these low particle speeds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermally unstable roosts influence winter torpor patterns in a threatened bat species

Abstract Many hibernating bats in thermally stable, subterranean roosts have experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS). However, some WNS-affected species also use thermally unstable roosts during winter that may impact their torpor patterns and WNS susceptibility. From November to March 2017–19, we used temperature-sensitive transmitters to document winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) using thermally unstable roosts in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. Daily mean roost temperature was 12.9 ± 4.9°C SD in bridges and 11.0 ± 4.6°C in accessible cavities with daily fluctuations of 4.8 ± 2°C in bridges and 4.0 ± 1.9°C in accessible cavities and maximum fluctuations of 13.8 and 10.5°C, respectively. Mean torpor bout duration was 2.7 ± 2.8 days and was negatively related to ambient temperature and positively related to precipitation. Bats maintained non-random arousal patterns focused near dusk and were active on 33.6% of tracked days. Fifty-one percent of arousals contained passive rewarming. Normothermic bout duration, general activity and activity away from the roost were positively related to ambient temperature, and activity away from the roost was negatively related to barometric pressure. Our results suggest ambient weather conditions influence winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats using thermally unstable roosts. Short torpor bout durations and potential nighttime foraging during winter by tricolored bats in thermally unstable roosts contrasts with behaviors of tricolored bats in thermally stable roosts. Therefore, tricolored bat using thermally unstable roosts may be less susceptible to WNS. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of understanding the effect of roost thermal stability on winter torpor patterns and the physiological flexibility of broadly distributed hibernating species.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Testing of a Helium Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Future NASA space telescopes and exploration missions require cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks. One device that can potentially be used to provide closed-loop cryocooling is the cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP). A CLHP has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A helium CLHP has been tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryocooler as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components in the 3K temperature range. A copper plate with attached electrical heters was used to simulate the heat source, and heat was collected by the CLHP evaporator and transferred to the cryocooler for ultimate heat rejection. The helium CLHP thermal performance test included cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, capillary limit, heat removal capability, rapid power changes, and long duration steady state operation. The helium CLHP demonstrated robust operation under steady state and transient conditions. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully without pre-conditioning by simply applying power to both the capillary pump and the evaporator plate. It could adapt to rapid changes in the heat load, and reach a new steady state very quickly. Heat removal between 10mW and 140mW was demonstrated, yielding a power turn down ratio of 14. When the CLHP capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the power to the capillary pump. Steady state operations up to 17 hours at several heat loads were demonstrated. The ability of the helium CLHP to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

Crycooling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Testing of a Helium Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Future NASA space telescopes and exploration missions require cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks. One device that can potentially be used to provide closed-loop cryocooling is the cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP). A CLHP has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A helium CLHP has been tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryocooler as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components in the 3K temperature range. A copper plate with attached electrical heaters was used to simulate the heat source, and heat was collected by the CLHP evaporator and transferred to the cryocooler for ultimate heat rejection. The helium CLHP thermal performance test included cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, capillary limit, heat removal capability, rapid power changes, and long duration steady state operation. The helium CLHP demonstrated robust operation under steady state and transient conditions. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully without pre-conditioning by simply applying power to both the capillary pump and the evaporator plate. It could adapt to rapid changes in the heat load, and reach a new steady state very quickly. Heat removal between 10mW and 140mW was demonstrated, yielding a power turn down ratio of 14. When the CLHP capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the power to the capillary pump. Steady state operations up to 17 hours at several heat loads were demonstrated. The ability of the helium CLHP to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

cryocooling↗
DOE OSTI2020

IDENTIFICATION OF ADSORBA TION OF ADSORBATE FT-IR BANDS USING IN-SI -IR BANDS USING IN-SITU TECHNIQUES: Pd SPECIATION AND ADSORPTION CHEMISTRY OF Pd-ZEOLITES FOR PASSIVE NOx ADSORPTION

To meet increasingly stringent automotive emissions standards, further improvements in catalytic converter design are necessary. Current automotive catalyst systems are effective at eliminating emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx) once the catalyst reaches operational temperature (~200 °C). NOx emitted at lower catalyst temperatures now comprises most of the NOx released during a typical test cycle. Referred to as “the cold start problem” this issue has come to the forefront of automotive catalyst development, as mitigating these emissions is necessary to further reduce automotive emissions. Passive NOx adsorbers present an appealing solution to the cold start problem, these being a class of materials that chemisorb exhaust components such as NOx, carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons at near-ambient temperatures, and then desorb these compounds once the downstream catalyst has reached operational temperature. An effective passive NOx adsorber must have several properties: high NOx adsorption at near-ambient temperatures, near-complete NOx desorption at temperatures within the operational range, high thermal stability, and resistance to automotive exhaust components at high temperatures. The potential environmental impact of such a system is substantial, as NOx emissions currently result in the formation of millions of tons of smog and acid rain each year. Pd-exchanged zeolites have shown promise for deployment as Passive NOx adsorbers, though much remains to be understood about their adsorption chemistry and deactivation. In-situ Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier Transform Spectroscopy (DRIFTS) provides a convenient probe of adsorbed species, most automotive exhaust components possessing IR-active chemical bonds. By examining the evolution of IR bands under various pretreatments and adsorbates, the overall Pd-speciation and adsorptive zeolite sites of each material can be characterized, and the identities of IR bands can be deduced. In this work, microreactor-MS analysis of the adsorption and desorption behavior of these materials was also examined, these results being coupled with in-situ DRIFTS temperature programmed desorption (TPD) to correlate desorption events with specific adsorbed species. A pair of zeolite frameworks of similar Si/Al ratio but differing pore size were examined, Beta zeolite (BEA) and Chabazite (CHA) representing a medium- and small-pore framework, respectively. The effect of Pd-loading on BEA was examined, as well as the various deactivation pathways and active sites of each material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation-induced molecular hydrogen gas generation in the presence of aluminum alloy 1100

The United States government currently manages nearly 13 metric tons of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (SNF) without a long-term storage solution, so a fundamental understanding of corrosion processes occurring on aluminum alloy surfaces is of utmost importance to plan for extended (>50 years) interim dry storage of aluminum-clad SNF. While thermal and chemical corrosion processes are well characterized for aluminum, radiation effects are not. To help understand the impacts of radiation on aluminum-clad SNF, here the radiation-induced molecular hydrogen gas (H 2 ) generation from pristine and pre-corroded aluminum alloy 1100 (Al-1100) coupons have been studied. Corrosion of coupons was achieved by submerging coupons in water at 95 °C for 29 days, yielding a ~5 μm boehmite/bayerite oxide film. Pre-corroded coupons were exposed to cobalt-60 gamma radiation to absorbed doses of up to 1.0 MGy under a variety of conditions: cover-gas composition (argon, nitrogen, or air), relative humidity (0, 50, and 100%), and temperature (ambient, 100, and 200 °C). Post-irradiation measurements demonstrated that the yield of H 2 was directly attributable to the presence of the Al-1100 coupons and their physisorbed water with dependence on absorbed gamma dose, relative humidity, and cover-gas composition. No H 2 was quantified in the presence of air, while both nitrogen and argon environments afforded higher H 2 yields with increasing relative humidities. This was attributed to the greater availability of adsorbed water for radiolytic processes. Irradiation of pre-corroded Al-1100 coupons at different temperatures under 0% relative humidity argon conditions yielded statistically equivalent H 2 yields for ambient temperatures and 100 °C. However, irradiation at 200 °C promoted a 3 to 4-fold increase in the yield of H 2 , possibly due to the transformation of bayerite to boehmite and/or improved efficiency of H • and H 2 release from oxide surfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗
NASA NTRS1984

Lightning attachment patterns and flight conditions experienced by the NASA F-106B airplane from 1980 to 1983

The direct lightning strike data and associated flight conditions recorded from 1980 to 1983 during 742 thunderstorm penetrations with a NASA F-106B in Oklahoma and Virginia are studied with an emphasis on aircraft protection design. The individual lightning attachment spots were plotted on isometric projections of the aircraft to identify lightning entry and exit points and swept flash patterns. The altitudes, ambient temperatures, turbulence, and precipitation at which the strikes occurred are summarized and discussed. It was noted that peak strike rates (0.81 strikes/min and 3 strikes/penetration) occurred at altitudes between 11 km and 11.6 km corresponding to ambient temperatures between -40 C and -45 C. The data confirmed that initial entry and exit points most frequently occur at aircraft extremities, in this case the nose boom, the wing tips, the vertical fin cap, and the afterburner. The swept-flash attachment paths and burn marks found in this program indicate that the mid-span areas of swept aircraft may be more susceptible to lightning than previously thought. It was also found that lightning strikes may attach to spots within the engine tail pipe.

Fisher, B. D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-adaptive radiative coating for all-season household thermal regulation

The sky is a natural heat sink that has been extensively used for passive radiative cooling of households. A lot of focus has been on maximizing the radiative cooling power of roof coating in the hot daytime using static, cooling-optimized material properties. However, the resultant overcooling in cold night or winter times exacerbates the heating cost, especially in climates where heating dominates energy consumption. In this work, we approached thermal regulation from an all-season perspective by developing a mechanically flexible coating that adapts its thermal emittance to different ambient temperatures. The fabricated temperature-adaptive radiative coating (TARC) optimally absorbs the solar energy and automatically switches thermal emittance from 0.20 for ambient temperatures lower than 15°C to 0.90 for temperatures above 30°C, driven by a photonically amplified metal-insulator transition. Simulations show that this system outperforms existing roof coatings for energy saving in most climates, especially those with substantial seasonal variations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2014

Testing of a Neon Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks is required for future NASA missions. A cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP) can provide a closed-loop cooling system for this purpose and has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A neon CLHP was tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryopump as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components. Tests conducted included loop cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, power cycle, heat removal capability, loop capillary limit and recovery from a dry-out, low power operation, and long duration steady state operation. The neon CLHP demonstrated robust operation. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully by applying power to both the pump and evaporator without any pre-conditioning. It could adapt to changes in the pump power andor evaporator power, and reach a new steady state very quickly. The evaporator could remove heat loads between 0.25W and 4W. When the pump capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the pump power. Steady state operations were demonstrated for up to 6 hours. The ability of the neon loop to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

Cryogenics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal Performance Characterization of a Gen3 Particle-Based Concentrating Solar Plant With a Spatially Resolved Transient Thermal Storage Model

Particle-based Gen3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) can be paired with high-temperature power cycles (>700 °C) and can have built-in long duration (≥10 hours) thermal energy storage if the working particles are stored properly in thermal energy storage bins. Although high-temperature and long-duration thermal energy storage can mitigate daily intermittencies in solar irradiation, seasonal variability in local meteorological conditions can still have a significant impact on the overall performance of CSP systems. Aside from daily cloud coverage affecting incident solar radiation, wind speed and ambient temperature are also significant variables regarding system heat attenuation, component efficiency, and overall solar conversion efficiency. In this work, we present simulation results for a Gen3 CSP prototype system in operation over four weeks throughout the year in Albuquerque, NM. The meteorological conditions are taken directly from the TMY3 data at the Albuquerque International Sunport, where the hourly Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI), wind speed, and ambient temperature are of particular interest. An investigation of the sensitivity of individual components like storage and ducting to the local meteorological conditions is provided and extended to the overall performance of the CSP system. The results from this study show that the particle inlet temperature at the particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger can change as fast as 30 °C/min under standard operation in a passive mode.

Plewe, Kaden (ORCID:0000000286826879)↗
NASA NTRS1988

Final results of the NASA storm hazards program

Lightning swept-flash attachment patterns and the associated flight conditions were recorded from 1980-1986 during 1496 thunderstorm penetrations and 714 direct strikes with a NASA F-1068 research airplane. These data were studied with an emphasis on lightning avoidance by aircraft and on aircraft protection design. The individual lightning attachment spots, along with crew comments and on-board photographic data were used to identify lightning swept-flash attachment patterns and the orientations of the lightning channels with respect to the airplane. The full-scale in-flight data were compared to results from scale-model arc-attachment tests. The airborne and scale-model data showed that any exterior surface of this airplane may be susceptible to direct lightning attachment. In addition, the altitudes, ambient temperatures, and the relative turbulence and precipitation levels at which the strikes occurred in thunderstorms are summarized and discussed. It was found that the peak strike rate occurred at pressure altitudes betwen 38,000 ft and 40,000 ft, corresponding to ambient temperatures colder than -40 C.

Fisher, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Sublimation and reformation of icy grains in the primitive solar nebula

The quantity of water ice that sublimates during the free fall of grains into the solar nebula from a surrounding interstellar cloud varies from over 90 percent of the grain mass as 30 AU from the nebular center to less than 10 percent at more than 100 AU. Virtually all the water that is sublimated ultimately recondenses, since the cold nebular gas lying beyond 10 AU is unable to hold more than a small portion as vapor. The return of most of the gas to solid phase near the nebular ambient temperature, of about 50 K, may result in at least two grain populations consisting, in one case, of unaltered interstellar grains which did not undergo sublimation, and in the other of water ice which cocondensed with more volatile gases at nebular ambient temperatures to yield volatile-rich amorphous phases.

Lunine, Jonathan I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Advanced thermoplastic resins, phase 2

High temperature structural resins are required for use on advanced aerospace vehicles as adhesives and composite matrices. NASA-Langley developed polyimide resins were evaluated as high temperature structural adhesives for metal to metal bonding and as composite matrices. Adhesive tapes were prepared on glass scrim fabric from solutions of polyamide acids of the semicrystalline polyimide LARC-CPI, developed at the NASA-Langley Research Center. Using 6Al-4V titanium adherends, high lap shear bond strengths were obtained at ambient temperature (45.2 MPa, 6550 psi) and acceptable strengths were obtained at elevated temperature (14.0 MPa, 2030 psi) using the Pasa-Jell 107 conversion coating on the titanium and a bonding pressure of 1.38 MPa (200 psi). Average zero degree composite tensile and compressive strengths of 1290 MPa (187 ksi) and 883 MPa (128 ksi) respectively were obtained at ambient temperature with unsized AS-4 carbon fiber reinforcement.

Brown, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

V-378A: A modified bismaleimide for advanced composites

Addition polyimides cure with no evolution of gaseous by-products at relatively low temperatures and may be cured at low pressures to yield composites with excellent hot-wet strength retention. These properaties have made them excellent candidates as matrix resins for advanced composites. However, commercially available bismaleimides are solids and difficult to handle in preimpregnated form. V-378A is an addition polyimide composed of a mixture of bismaleimides and other reactive ingredients formulated to provide good prepreg properties and handling, facile cure and excellent composite mechanical properties. Several curing mechanisms are utilized to provide the characteristics exhibited by V-378A. Part of the mechanism is free radial and takes place at ambient temperature and above. Other mechanisms are principally Diels-Alder in nature. V-378A prepregs are tacky at ambient temperature, but do not have long tacky outlife similar to some epoxies. V-378A yields composites which exhibit hot-wet strength retention which is superior to that provided by epoxy resin systems.

Street, S. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗