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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32◦ degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of 18 Satellite- and Model-Based Soil Moisture Products Using in Situ Measurements From 826 Sensors

Information about the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture is critical for many purposes, including monitoring of hydrologic extremes, irrigation scheduling, and prediction of agricultural yields. We evaluated the temporal dynamics of 18 state-of-the-art (quasi-)global near-surface soil moisture products, including six based on satellite retrievals, six based on models without satellite data assimilation (referred to hereafter as “open-loop” models), and six based on models that assimilate satellite soil moisture or brightness temperature data. Seven of the products are introduced for the first time in this study: one multi-sensor merged satellite product called MeMo (Merged soil Moisture) and six estimates from the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model with three precipitation inputs (ERA5, IMERG, and MSWEP) with and without assimilation of SMAPL3E satellite retrievals, respectively. As reference, we used in situ soil moisture measurements between 2015 and 2019 at 5 cm depth from 826 sensors, located primarily in the USA and Europe. The 3-hourly Pearson correlation (R) was chosen as the primary performance metric. We found that application of the Soil Wetness Index (SWI) smoothing filter resulted in improved performance for all satellite products. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the four single-sensor satellite products was SMAPL3E SWI , SMOS SWI , AMSR2 SWI , and ASCAT SWI , with the L-band-based SMAPL3E SWI (median R of 0.72) outperforming the others at 50 % of the sites. Among the two multi-sensor satellite products (MeMo and ESA-CCI SWI ), MeMo performed better on average (median R of 0.72 versus 0.67), probably due to the inclusion of SMAPL3E SWI . The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six open-loop models was HBV-MSWEP, HBV-ERA5, ERA5-Land, HBV-IMERG, VIC-PGF, and GLDAS-Noah. This ranking largely reflects the quality of the precipitation forcing. HBV-MSWEP (median R of 0.78) performed best not just among the open-loop models but among all products. The calibration of HBV improved the median R by +0.12 on average compared to random parameters, highlighting the importance of model calibration. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six models with satellite data assimilation was HBV-MSWEP+SMAPL3E, HBV-ERA5+SMAPL3E, GLEAM, SMAPL4, HBV-IMERG+SMAPL3E, and ERA5. The assimilation of SMAPL3E retrievals into HBV-IMERG improved the median R by +0.06, suggesting that data assimilation yields significant benefits at the global scale.

Hylke E. Beck↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sputtering of Surfaces by Ion Irradiation: A Comparison of Molecular Dynamics and Binary Collision Approximation Models to Laboratory Measurements

We compare various sputtering simulation methods to experimental results in both the low energy (<1 keV) and high energy (≥1 keV) impact regimes for argon ions impacting a pure copper substrate at normal incidence. Our results indicate that for high energy impacts, both binary collision approximation (BCA) and molecular dynamics methods can be used to generate reasonable predictions for the yield and energy distribution of the sputtered atoms. We also find reasonable agreement between the theoretical and experimental results down to impact energies of 600 eV. However, at 200 eV impact energies, significant discrepancies appear between the experimental and theoretical ejecta energy distributions in the peak position, the width of the energy distribution, and the magnitude of the high energy tail. These discrepancies appear to arise from the experimental results being only for atoms sputtered normal to the substrate surface, whereas the theoretical results are integrated over all 2π solid angles above the surface. Using the BCA code SDTrimSP and limiting the results to only atoms emitted within ±15° of the surface normal brings theory and experiment into reasonable agreement. These results suggest that for low energy impacts, the energy distribution of sputtered atoms is highly dependent on the emission angle of the ejecta.

Solar wind↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Curating AI-Ready Datasets for Equity and Environmental Justice: A Data-Centric AI Case Study

An equitable and environmentally just community is essentialin order to avoid disproportionate burden borne by vulnerablecommunities. This need becomes pressing in the aftermathof an extreme event such as disaster or hazard when it is diffi-cult for the governing bodies to implement resource allocationas per the need. Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms canhelp surface Equity and Environmental Justice (EEJ) issueswhen trained on EEJ datasets. However, curating AI-readyEEJ training datasets is challenging due to differences in fac-tors such as heterogeneity, resolution, modality, and level ofexpertise in labeling. Additionally, EEJ issues involve sensi-tive information where uncertainties and errors could degradethe performance of AI algorithms. For eg. Error in seasonalcrop yield information can highly affect the prediction of an-nual crop yield. To address these challenges, Data-centricAI (DCAI) methods are employed, which enhance AI algo-rithm performance even with limited training samples. DCAIprioritizes data quality, thereby reducing the adverse effectsof uncertainties and errors during the model training process.This research proposes a novel dataset and benchmark for an-alyzing the effect of the Maui Wildfire of 2023 for Equityand Environmental Justice (EEJ) issues. The proposed datasetaligns with the concepts of DCAI such as annotation quality,data preprocessing, privacy, feature engineering, governanceand provenance. We firmly believe that the proposed datasetwould lay a foundation to implement robust and reliable mod-ern AI algorithms for addressing EEJ issues.

Paridhi Parajuli↗
NASA NTRS2024

HPIC: The Habitable Worlds Observatory Preliminary Input Catalog

The Habitable Worlds Observatory Preliminary Input Catalog (HPIC) is a list of ∼13,000 nearby bright stars that will be potential targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) in its search for Earth-sized planets around Sun-like stars. We construct this target list using the TESS and Gaia DR3 catalogs and develop an automated pipeline to compile stellar measurements and derived astrophysical properties for all stars. We benchmark the stellar properties in the HPIC relative to those of the manually curated ExEP HWO Precursor Science Stars list and find that, for the 164 best targets for exo-Earth direct imaging, our stellar properties are consistent. We demonstrate the utility of the HPIC by using it as an input for yield calculations to predict the science output of various mission designs, including those with larger telescope diameters and those focused on other planet types besides Earth analogs, such as Jupiter-mass planets. The breadth and completeness of the HPIC is essential for accurate HWO mission trade studies, and it will be useful for other exoplanet studies and general astrophysics studying the population of bright nearby stars.

Noah W. Tuchow↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Crops↗
NASA NTRS1974

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities

The feasibility of using the data collection system on Earth Technology Satellite-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data-collection platforms (DCPs), placed in two commercial wheat fields, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCPs from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray to control leaf rust, and then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field, a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1974

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities

The author has identified the following significant results. The feasibility of using the data collection system on ERTS-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data collection platforms (DCP'S), placed in two commercial wheat fields in Riley County, Kansas, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCP'S from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield was obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray (5.6 kg/ha) to control leaf rust, then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Results of MISSE 6 Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yields of Layered Kapton H Films with Monte Carlo Computational Predictions

A space experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 6B (MISSE 6B) was designed to compare the atomic oxygen erosion yield (Ey) of layers of Kapton H polyimide with no spacers between layers with that of layers of Kapton H with spacers between layers. The results were compared to a solid Kapton H (DuPont, Wilmington, DE) sample. Monte Carlo computational modeling was performed to optimize atomic oxygen interaction parameter values to match the results of both the MISSE 6B multilayer experiment and the undercut erosion profile from a crack defect in an aluminized Kapton H sample flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). The Monte Carlo modeling produced credible agreement with space results of increased Ey for all samples with spacers as well as predicting the space-observed enhancement in erosion near the edges of samples due to scattering from the beveled edges of the sample holders.

Oxygen atoms↗
NASA NTRS1997

Prediction of High-Lift Flows using Turbulent Closure Models

The flow over two different multi-element airfoil configurations is computed using linear eddy viscosity turbulence models and a nonlinear explicit algebraic stress model. A subset of recently-measured transition locations using hot film on a McDonnell Douglas configuration is presented, and the effect of transition location on the computed solutions is explored. Deficiencies in wake profile computations are found to be attributable in large part to poor boundary layer prediction on the generating element, and not necessarily inadequate turbulence modeling in the wake. Using measured transition locations for the main element improves the prediction of its boundary layer thickness, skin friction, and wake profile shape. However, using measured transition locations on the slat still yields poor slat wake predictions. The computation of the slat flow field represents a key roadblock to successful predictions of multi-element flows. In general, the nonlinear explicit algebraic stress turbulence model gives very similar results to the linear eddy viscosity models.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ignition and Burn in a Hybrid Nuclear Fuel for a Pulsed Rocket Engine

This work explores the parameter space of a cylindrical hybrid nuclear fuel in support of a z-pinch driven pulsed fission-fusion (PuFF) engine. 0D power balance and 1D burn wave calculations have been performed to explore the parameter space of hybrid cylindrical nuclear fuels. The boundary of minimal initial conditions needed to reach breakeven are found within the context of the model. The effects of initial conditions upon the yield at the end of burn wave expansion are also determined. The model is used to examine the minimum initial energies predicted to result in yields of a few MJ. The goal of this work is to guide fuel design, inform future models and experiments as well as look for the most efficient parameter space for ignition in a z-pinch driven hybrid nuclear reaction. The impact of initial parameters upon ignition, burn, and gain are discussed. It is found that a hybrid cylindrical target may breakeven with initial energy near the axis of approximately 4 to 6 MJ in lithium deuteride/uranium 235 fuel. It is also found that magnetic field can lower the threshold further of which the magnitude changes across the parameter space. The dual fusion/fission reactions are found to boost each other leading to lower initial driving energies needed to reach breakeven in the hybrid cylindrical nuclear fuel.

fission↗
NASA NTRS1966

Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.

Amstadter, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Microlevel thermal effects in metal matrix composites

A method for studying the influence of thermal effects on the inelastic response of metal matrix composites is reviewed. A micromechanics approach based upon the method of cells is shown to be quite versatile for studying a variety of materials response phenomena. Yielding and inelastic response of the composite are predicted as functions of thermal stresses, yielding of the matrix, and imperfect fiber/matrix bonding. Results are presented in the form of yield surfaces and nonlinear stress-strain curves for unidirectional and laminated boron/aluminum and silicon-carbide/titanium.

Herakovich, Carl T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

State-to-state rates for the D + H2(v = 1, j = 1) yield HD(v-prime, j-prime) + H reaction - Predictions and measurements

A fully quantal wavepacket approach to reactive scattering in which the best available H3 potential energy surface was used enabled a comparison with experimentally determined rates for the D + H2(v = 1, j = 1) yield HD(v-prime = 0, 1, 2; j-prime) + H reaction at significantly higher total energies (1.4 to 2.25 electron volts) than previously possible. The theoretical results are obtained over a sufficient range of conditions that a detailed simulation of the experiment was possible, thus making this a definitive comparison of experiment and theory. Good to excellent agreement is found for the vibrational branching ratios and for the rotational distributions within each product vibrational level. However, the calculated rotational distributions are slightly hotter than the experimentally measured ones.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2002

Simultaneous Laser Raman-rayleigh-lif Measurements and Numerical Modeling Results of a Lifted Turbulent H2/N2 Jet Flame in a Vitiated Coflow

An experiment and numerical investigation is presented of a lifted turbulent H2/N2 jet flame in a coflow of hot, vitiated gases. The vitiated coflow burner emulates the coupling of turbulent mixing and chemical kinetics exemplary of the reacting flow in the recirculation region of advanced combustors. It also simplifies numerical investigation of this coupled problem by removing the complexity of recirculating flow. Scalar measurements are reported for a lifted turbulent jet flame of H2/N2 (Re = 23,600, H/d = 10) in a coflow of hot combustion products from a lean H2/Air flame ((empty set) = 0.25, T = 1,045 K). The combination of Rayleigh scattering, Raman scattering, and laser-induced fluorescence is used to obtain simultaneous measurements of temperature and concentrations of the major species, OH, and NO. The data attest to the success of the experimental design in providing a uniform vitiated coflow throughout the entire test region. Two combustion models (PDF: joint scalar Probability Density Function and EDC: Eddy Dissipation Concept) are used in conjunction with various turbulence models to predict the lift-off height (H(sub PDF)/d = 7,H(sub EDC)/d = 8.5). Kalghatgi's classic phenomenological theory, which is based on scaling arguments, yields a reasonably accurate prediction (H(sub K)/d = 11.4) of the lift-off height for the present flame. The vitiated coflow admits the possibility of auto-ignition of mixed fluid, and the success of the present parabolic implementation of the PDF model in predicting a stable lifted flame is attributable to such ignition. The measurements indicate a thickened turbulent reaction zone at the flame base. Experimental results and numerical investigations support the plausibility of turbulent premixed flame propagation by small scale (on the order of the flame thickness) recirculation and mixing of hot products into reactants and subsequent rapid ignition of the mixture.

Cabra, R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding the Atmosphere of 51 Eri b: Do Photochemical Hazes Cloud the Planets Spectrum?

The first young giant planet to be discovered by the Gemini Planet Imager was the (is) approximately 2MJ planet 51 Eri b. This approximately 20 Myr old young Jupiter is the first directly imaged planet to show unmistakable methane in H band. To constrain the planet's mass, atmospheric temperature, and composition, the GPI J and H band spectra as well as some limited photometric points were compared to the predictions of substellar atmosphere models. The best fitting models reported in the discovery paper (Macintosh et al. 2015) relied upon a combination of clear and cloudy atmospheric columns to reproduce the data. However for an object as cool as 700 K, the origin of the cloud coverage is somewhat puzzling, as the global silicate and iron clouds would be expected to have sunk well below the photosphere by this effective temperature. While strong vertical mixing in these low gravity atmospheres remains a plausible explanation, we have explored whether atmospheric photochemistry, driven by the UV flux from the primary star, may yield hazes that also influence the observed spectrum of the planet. To explore this possibility we have modeled the atmospheric photochemistry of 51 Eri b using two state-of-the-art photochemical models, both capable of predicting yields of complex hydrocarbons under various atmospheric conditions. In our presentation we will summarize the modeling approach employed to characterize 51 Eri b, explaining constraints on the planet's effective temperature, gravity, and atmospheric composition and also present results of our studies of atmospheric photochemistry. We will discuss whether photochemical hazes could indeed be responsible for the particulate opacity that apparently sculpts the spectrum of the planet.

GPI - Gemini Planet Imager↗