Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Computational Parameters on Predicting Self-Consistent Residual Stress and Distortion during Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Production of three-dimensional metallic parts through integration of an articulated robot and gas metal arc welding, also known as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), can produce large-scale components with moderate geometrical complexity. This technology is particularly appealing due to its high deposition rates, scalability, and cost-effective feedstock compared to other AM processes. Despite its advantages, WAAM adoption is hindered by challenges in ensuring geometric conformity without extensive distortion, defect-free structures, and consistent mechanical properties. Finite element analysis (FEA) is often used to address the challenge of geometrical conformity. As the size of parts increases, the best practices for mesh size and temporal resolution known in the literature become computationally unviable. This research examined the effects of mesh and time-step resolutions during transient FEA of a large-scale (248 layers) metallic part. The impact of computational parameters on the thermal history, displacement, and residual stress distributions were evaluated. The results showed that predicted distortion was consistent across resolutions, while time-step length significantly affected predicted thermal history, and mesh size influenced residual stress distributions. To investigate this relationship further, directionally biased meshes were considered and analyzed. The results indicated that increasing mesh resolution perpendicular to the welding path yielded stress predictions that aligned closely with higher-resolution models while offering substantial computational savings. In conclusion, the significances of this research are related to verification and validation of WAAM models for widespread industrial adoption and pragmatic guidelines for optimizing computation parameters for balancing computational efficiency and predictive accuracy of residual stress and distortion.

Solsbee, Brandon [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, T↗
NASA NTRS1992

The effects of uneven fiber spacing on thermal residual stresses in a unidirectional SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminate

High residual stresses develop in SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composites during cooldown from the fabrication temperature; these residual stresses can effect the mechanical and physical properties of the composite. Discrete fiber-matrix finite element models were used to study the residual stresses due to the temperature change during the fabrication process, including the effects of uneven fiber spacing, the free surface, and increased fiber volume fractions. To accurately model the effects of the free surface, it is only necessary to model one fiber through the thickness. Below the first ply, the analysis predicts stress distributions that are identical to the infinite array predictions. For uneven fiber space less than 0.042 mm in an interior ply, the maximum hoop stress was predicted to occur between fibers within a ply and to increase as the fiber spacing decreased. The maximum hoop stress correlated well with the observed radial cracking between fibers. For the case of touching fibers, the analysis predicted tensile radial stresses at the fiber-matrix debonding during the fabrication cooldown. Identical trends were predicted for uneven fiber spacing in surface plies with slightly greater values of maximum stresses. The analysis predicted matrix yielding to occur upon cooldown when the edge-to-edge fiber spacing was less than or equal to 0.022 mm. The stress distributions preidcted for increasing fiber volume fractions were similar to those predicted for decreasing the fiber spacing for two adjacent fibers within a ply.

Bigelow, Catherine A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (Life) I. Improved Exoplanet Detection Yield Estimates for A Large Mid-Infrared Space-Interferometer Mission

Context. One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale that can spatially separate the signals from exoplanets and their host stars and thus directly scrutinize the exoplanets and their atmospheres. Aims. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared (MIR) nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. We study the impact of various parameters and compare the performance with that of large single-aperture mission concepts detecting exoplanets in reflected light. Methods. We have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Results. An interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures working in the 4–18.5 μ.m wavelength range with a total instrument throughput of 5% could detect up to ≈550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R ⊕ with an integrated S/N ≥ 7. At least ≈160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R ⊕ . Depending on the observing scenario, ≈25–45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ ) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four 3.5 m apertures, the total number of detections can increase to up to ≈770, including ≈60–80 rocky eHZ planets. With four times 1 m apertures, the maximum detection yield is ≈315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky eHZ planets. The vast majority of small, temperate exoplanets are detected around M dwarfs. The impact of changing the wavelength range to 3–20 μm or 6–17 μm on the detection yield is negligible. Conclusions. A large space-based MIR nulling interferometer will be able to directly detect hundreds of small, nearby exoplanets, tens of which would be habitable world candidates. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. Given that we assumed only 2.5 years for the search phase, a significant sub-set of the detected exoplanets can be followed-up in a second mission phase to obtain high SNR thermal emission spectra, leveraging the superior diagnostic power of the MIR wavelength regime compared to shorter wavelengths.

planets and satellites: terrestrial planets↗
NASA NTRS2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Artemis I Space Launch System Integrated Aerodynamics Databases

Accurate prediction of integrated aerodynamic forces and moments is a necessary part of aerospace vehicle development. This accuracy can be quantified in the form of an uncertainty model, which makes the prediction more useful within an integrated vehicle design effort. Aerodynamic force and moment databases were constructed for the Artemis~I mission of the Space Launch System vehicle. These databases reconcile data from multiple sources to yield unified predictions of how NASA's most advanced launch vehicle interacts with Earth's atmosphere as it ascends into orbit. This paper outlines how the uncertainty quantification was performed for these databases to ensure comprehensive and tractable uncertainty source coverage.

Michael W Lee↗
NASA NTRS1972

Measured and calculated mean flow properties of a two-dimensional, hypersonic, turbulent wake

The hypersonic turbulent wake produced by a wedge was studied experimentally and its properties were compared with predictions obtained from a numerical computation procedure. In the computation procedure several models for the eddy viscosity formulation of the turbulent transport were examined. Conventional-defect models and a modified mixing-length model were found to yield good predictions of the experimental data. The classical mixing-length model gave unrealistic results. The experimental data displayed similarity when velocity and temperature defects were scaled by the maximum defects and the transverse coordinate was scaled by the velocity-defect half-width.

Wagner, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genomic prediction of hybrid performance for agronomic traits in sorghum

Hybrid breeding in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] utilizes the cytoplasmic-nuclear male sterility (CMS) system for seed production and subsequently harnesses heterosis. Since the cost of developing and evaluating inbred and hybrid lines in the CMS system is costly and time-consuming, genomic prediction of parental lines and hybrids is based on genetic data genotype. We generated 602 hybrids by crossing two female (A) lines with 301 diverse and elite male (R) lines from the sorghum association panel and collected phenotypic data for agronomic traits over two years. We genotyped the inbred parents using whole genome resequencing and used 2,687,342 high quality (minor allele frequency > 2%) single nucleotide polymorphisms for genomic prediction. For grain yield, the experimental hybrids exhibited an average mid-parent heterosis of 40%. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) for hybrid performance yielded an average prediction accuracy of 0.76–0.93 under the prediction scenario where both parental lines in validation sets were included in the training sets (T2). However, when only female tester was shared between training and validation sets (T1F), prediction accuracies declined by 12–90%, with plant height showing the greatest decline. Mean accuracies for predicting the general combining ability of male parents ranged from 0.33 to 0.62 for all traits. Our results showed hybrid performance for agronomic traits can be predicted with high accuracy, and optimizing genomic relationship is essential for optimal training population design for genomic selection in sorghum breeding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Reduced Order Model for Cost and Emission Assessment of a Pyrolysis System

Biomass pyrolysis is a promising approach for producing economic and environmentally-friendly fuels and bioproducts. Biomass pyrolysis experiments show that feedstock properties have a significant impact on product yields and composition. Scientists are developing detailed chemical reaction mechanisms to capture the relationships between biomass composition and pyrolysis yields. These mechanisms can be computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate the use of a machine learning reduced order model (ROM) for assessing the costs and emissions of a pyrolysis biorefinery. Here, we developed a Kriging-based ROM to predict pyrolysis yields of 314 feedstock samples based on the results of a detailed chemical kinetic pyrolysis mechanism. The ROM is integrated into a chemical process model for calculating mass and energy yields in a commercial-scale (2000 tonne/day) biorefinery. The ROM estimated biofuel yields of 65 to 130 gallons per ton of dry biomass. This results in biofuel minimum fuel-selling prices of $2.62 to $5.43 per gallon and emissions of -13.62 to 145 kg of CO 2 per MJ. The ROM achieved an average mean square error of 1.8e-20 and a mean absolute error of 0.53%. These results suggest that ROMs can facilitate rapid feedstock screening for biorefinery systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of U10Mo Fuel Plate Performance Modeling Over Hot Isostatic Press and Hydraulic Bending for MURR DDE Plates

The United States High Performance Research Reactor Program’s objective is to reduce the amount of highly enriched uranium currently implemented in research reactors. The conversion of these research reactors requires designing a monolithic U10Mo plate fuel, with the fuel plate geometry being dependent on each research reactor. The process of forming the plates includes a hot isostatic pressing (HIP) to manufacture a prototypic plate. In the case of the Missouri University Research Reactor (MURR) design demonstration element (DDE) plate manufacture, plates that have been through HIP are then curved using dies and a hydraulic press to impart the desired curvature. Both fabrication processes impart residual stresses into each fuel plate region, with the curvature of the plates taking some regions of the fuel plate up to their material yield stresses, accompanied by plastic strain. The amount of plastic strain and stress imparted onto each MURR DDE plate is determined by the radius of curvature, thickness of each region, and overall width of the fuel plates. Furthermore, this work aims to predict the yield stresses and strain using ABAQUS to simulate the proposed fabrication process of the MURR DDE plates, accompanied by discussion over the stresses and strains as to their relation to nuclear fuel performance and the impact they will have during early irradiation.

ABAQUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-Assisted Quality Pattern Identification in Finance

Short-term patterns in financial time series form the cornerstone of many algorithmic trading strategies, yet extracting these patterns reliably from noisy market data remains a formidable challenge. In this paper, we propose an entropy-assisted framework for identifying high-quality, non-overlapping patterns that exhibit consistent behavior over time. We ground our approach in the premise that historical patterns, when accurately clustered and pruned, can yield substantial predictive power for short-term price movements. To achieve this, we incorporate an entropy-based measure as a proxy for information gain: patterns that lead to high one-sided movements in historical data yet retain low local entropy are more “informative” in signaling future market direction. Compared to conventional clustering techniques such as K-means and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), which often yield biased or unbalanced groupings, our approach emphasizes balance over a forced visual boundary, ensuring that quality patterns are not lost due to over-segmentation. By emphasizing both predictive purity (low local entropy) and historical profitability, our method achieves a balanced representation of Buy and Sell patterns, making it better suited for short-term algorithmic trading strategies. This paper offers an in-depth illustration of our entropy-assisted framework through two case studies on Gold vs. USD and GBPUSD. While these examples demonstrate the method’s potential for extracting high-quality patterns, they do not constitute an exhaustive survey of all possible asset classes.

Physics↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of STS-2 experimental heating rates and transition data

Experimental laminar and 'fully' turbulent windward-ray heating rates obtained from the second Space Shuttle flight are compared with predicted rates based on equilibrium-air approximate and detailed analyses. A comparison of the results of the prediction techniques yield discrepancies of approximately 10 percent. The experimental laminar heating rates for altitudes greater than 67 km are as much as 35 percent lower than the results of the approximate code over the first 40 percent of the shuttle length. The approximate equilibrium predictions are in good agreement with these laminar data beyond the 40-percent station and over the entire shuttle at altitudes lower than 67 km. However, recent results of a detailed viscous-shock-layer nonequilibrium code indicate significant departures, especially at high altitudes, from the equilibrium state. Since the comparison of these predicted values and the data result in some currently unresolved questions, an engineering correlation of the predictions for use in the approximate code is not feasible at this time. Factors which may affect the comparisons of data and the nonequilibrium predictions are considered. The turbulent heating comparisons are good and boundary-layer transition data are compared with a current boundary-layer transition criterion.

Zoby, E. V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Perspective for the High Lift Common Research Model Using the LAVA Framework

An in-depth assessment of the High Lift-Common Research Model (HL-CRM) aerodynamic performance is made using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology. Results presented here were produced in support of the 4th AIAA High Lift Prediction Workshop(HLPW-4), with additional simulation results and analysis used to support findings from the workshop. Mesh resolution, RANS closure models, and tunnel effects were among the sources of simulation sensitivity addressed, all in the pursuit of evaluating best-practice simulation methods for complex high-lift configurations. In general, free-air simulations using RANS yield accurate predictions of integrated loads in the pre-stall regime for the HL-CRM, while strong sensitivity to simulation method is observed near CLmax. Additionally, a study assessing changes in aerodynamic performance due to flap deflection angle indicated strong sensitivity to turbulence model closure and mesh resolution, particularly at the highest deflection setting. Several available corrections for the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model were tested and generally introduced more error relative to the experiment in comparison to the baseline SA closure model. The Standard Menter Baseline Two-Equation (k-ωBSL) turbulence model was also explored, which arguably yielded results highly consistent with experiment, but at a substantially higher computational cost. Therefore, as a compromise between computational cost and accuracy, the baseline SA closure model was selected for additional HL-CRM studies that assess alternative solution methods. These strategies include “warm start” approaches, which initialize the simulation from a previously converged solution at a nearby angle of attack, unsteady calculations, and simulations that model the experimental wind tunnel. Results from these studies would reinforce the shortcomings of RANS in predicting aircraft performance at high-lift conditions, namely at high-αand highly loaded flap conditions, while also answering questions about appropriate modeling techniques to minimize the errors associated with RANS where possible

TTT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning dielectric screening for the simulation of excited state properties of molecules and materials

Accurate and efficient calculations of absorption spectra of molecules and materials are essential for the understanding and rational design of broad classes of systems. Solving the Bethe–Salpeter equation (BSE) for electron–hole pairs usually yields accurate predictions of absorption spectra, but it is computationally expensive, especially if thermal averages of spectra computed for multiple configurations are required. We present a method based on machine learning to evaluate a key quantity entering the definition of absorption spectra: the dielectric screening. We show that our approach yields a model for the screening that is transferable between multiple configurations sampled during first principles molecular dynamics simulations; hence it leads to a substantial improvement in the efficiency of calculations of finite temperature spectra. We obtained computational gains of one to two orders of magnitude for systems with 50 to 500 atoms, including liquids, solids, nanostructures, and solid/liquid interfaces. Importantly, the models of dielectric screening derived here may be used not only in the solution of the BSE but also in developing functionals for time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations of homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Overall, our work provides a strategy to combine machine learning with electronic structure calculations to accelerate first principles simulations of excited-state properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1993

A function approximation approach to anomaly detection in propulsion system test data

Ground test data from propulsion systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) can be automatically screened for anomalies by a neural network. The neural network screens data after being trained with nominal data only. Given the values of 14 measurements reflecting external influences on the SSME at a given time, the neural network predicts the expected nominal value of a desired engine parameter at that time. We compared the ability of three different function-approximation techniques to perform this nominal value prediction: a novel neural network architecture based on Gaussian bar basis functions, a conventional back propagation neural network, and linear regression. These three techniques were tested with real data from six SSME ground tests containing two anomalies. The basis function network trained more rapidly than back propagation. It yielded nominal predictions with, a tight enough confidence interval to distinguish anomalous deviations from the nominal fluctuations in an engine parameter. Since the function-approximation approach requires nominal training data only, it is capable of detecting unknown classes of anomalies for which training data is not available.

Whitehead, Bruce A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Realizing symmetry-guaranteed pairs of bound states in the continuum in metasurfaces

Abstract Bound states in the continuum (BICs) have received significant attention for their ability to enhance light-matter interactions across a wide range of systems, including lasers, sensors, and frequency mixers. However, many applications require degenerate or nearly degenerate high-quality factor ( Q ) modes, such as spontaneous parametric down conversion, non-linear four-wave mixing, and intra-cavity difference frequency mixing for terahertz generation. Previously, degenerate pairs of bound states in the continuum (BICs) have been created by fine-tuning the structure to engineer the degeneracy, yielding BICs that respond unpredictably to structure imperfections and material variations. Instead, using a group theoretic approach, we present a design paradigm based on six-fold rotational symmetry ( C 6 ) for creating degenerate pairs of symmetry-protected BICs, whose frequency splitting and Q -factors can be independently and predictably controlled, yielding a complete design phase space. Using a combination of resonator and lattice deformations in silicon metasurfaces, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to tune mode spacing from 2 nm to 110 nm while simultaneously controlling Q -factor.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Temporal Characterization of Aircraft Noise Sources

Current aircraft source noise prediction tools yield time-independent frequency spectra as functions of directivity angle. Realistic evaluation and human assessment of aircraft fly-over noise require the temporal characteristics of the noise signature. The purpose of the current study is to analyze empirical data from broadband jet and tonal fan noise sources and to provide the temporal information required for prediction-based synthesis. Noise sources included a one-tenth-scale engine exhaust nozzle and a one-fifth scale scale turbofan engine. A methodology was developed to characterize the low frequency fluctuations employing the Short Time Fourier Transform in a MATLAB computing environment. It was shown that a trade-off is necessary between frequency and time resolution in the acoustic spectrogram. The procedure requires careful evaluation and selection of the data analysis parameters, including the data sampling frequency, Fourier Transform window size, associated time period and frequency resolution, and time period window overlap. Low frequency fluctuations were applied to the synthesis of broadband noise with the resulting records sounding virtually indistinguishable from the measured data in initial subjective evaluations. Amplitude fluctuations of blade passage frequency (BPF) harmonics were successfully characterized for conditions equivalent to take-off and approach. Data demonstrated that the fifth harmonic of the BPF varied more in frequency than the BPF itself and exhibited larger amplitude fluctuations over the duration of the time record. Frequency fluctuations were found to be not perceptible in the current characterization of tonal components.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reduction of lunar basalt 70035: Oxygen yield and reaction product analysis

Oxygen production from a lunar rock has been experimentally demonstrated for the first time. A 10 g sample of high-Ti basalt 70035 was reduced with hydrogen in seven experiments at temperatures of 900-1050 C and pressures of 14.7-150 psia. In all experiments, water evolution began almost immediately and was essentially complete in tens of minutes. Oxygen yields ranged from 2.93 to 4.61% of the starting sample weight, and showed weak dependence on temperature and pressure. Analysis of the solid samples demonstrated total reduction of Fe(2+) in ilmenite and small degrees of reduction in olivine and pyroxene. Ti O2 was also partially reduced to one or more suboxides. Data from these experiments provide a basis for predicting the yield of oxygen from lunar basalt as well as new constraints on natural reduction in the lunar regolith.

Gibson, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compartmentalized model of multiphase chemical kinetics

There are significant challenges in predicting multiphase chemical kinetics due to the complex coupling of reaction and mass transport across a phase boundary (i.e., interface). Here, we describe a framework for predicting multiphase kinetics that embeds the elementary kinetic steps of reaction, solvation, and diffusion into a coarse grain spatial description of two phases. The model is constructed to bridge the short-timescale interfacial dynamics observed in molecular simulations with the longer timescales observed in kinetic experiments. A simple set of governing differential equations is derived, which, when solved numerically or analytically, yield accurate predictions of multiphase kinetics in microdroplets. Although the equations are formulated for gas-liquid reactions, the underlying conceptual framework is general and can be applied to transformations in other two-phase systems (solid-liquid, liquid-liquid, etc.).

Chemical kinetics and dynamics↗