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At least 289 records · Page 16

Investigating the Effects of Space Weathering in Ryugu Samples Using Coordinated Microanalyses

Airless planetary surfaces are characterized by a distinct lack of an atmosphere or magnetic field, leading to direct exposure to the effects of hypervelocity micrometeoroid impacts and solar wind ion irradiation [1]. These processes, cumulatively known as space weathering, gradually alter the microstructural and chemical properties of the grains on airless surfaces. Signatures of space weathering include vesiculated textures, amorphous grain rims (upper ~100 nm), solar flare tracks, and Fe-bearing nanoparticles (npFe) [2,3]. The accumulation of these microstructural space weathering characteristics, particularly the presence of npFe, alters the spectral properties of airless regoliths resulting in changes in spectral slope and reflectance of the surfaces, and the attenuation of characteristic absorption bands in the visible to near-infrared (Vis-NIR) wavelengths. These spectral changes complicate our ability to accurately interpret the mineralogy of airless bodies via remote sensing spectroscopy [1,4]. Studies of space weathering have primarily focused on anhydrous silicate minerals, reflecting the main components of the available returned samples from the Moon and S-type asteroid Itokawa [3,5,6]. However, our understanding of space weathering of primitive, organic-rich carbonaceous materials is still a work in progress. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)’s Hayabusa2 mission offered the first opportunity to directly investigate carbonaceous asteroids by returning samples from C-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu. Initial studies of Ryugu samples show mineralogical similarities to CI chondrites along with surface modifications consistent with space weathering. These surface modifications are primarily in the form of μm-thick silicate melts, amorphized phyllosilicates, glassy spherules, and burst vesicles [3,7]. Here, we report results from coordinated microanalytical techniques to further our understanding of the mineralogy and space weathering of carbonaceous materials.

L E Melendez↗

A numerical examination of the effect of sulfide dissolution on silicate weathering

Silicate weathering regulates climate on geological time scales as a net, climate-sensitive sink of atmospheric CO 2 . On the other hand, sulfuric acid produced through sulfide dissolution affects silicate weathering, diminishing its effectiveness as a climate regulator based on evidence from river chemistry. This study takes a theoretical approach to quantitatively examine the effect of sulfide dissolution, coupling a one-dimensional model of pyrite weathering to that of albite transformation to kaolinite. The coupled model reveals that when the reaction front of sulfide is deeper than that of silicates reacting with CO 2 , the silicate-weathering feedback on climate is not directly affected by sulfide dissolution, but only indirectly through oceanic processes such as reverse weathering and carbonate deposition. In turn, when sulfide dissolution occurs within zones of CO 2 -silicate reactions close to the surface, the feedback between climate and silicate weathering can be significantly weakened because sulfuric acid competes effectively with carbonic acid in mineral dissolution. As the depth of the sulfide reaction front can be changed by variations in water table depth, the latter feedback weakening could have occurred in concert with climate-change-driven water table fluctuations, amplifying atmospheric CO 2 variations during the Phanerozoic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Weather data at The Morton Arboretum 2017-2023

We have been monitoring long-term weather patterns using two weather stations at The Morton Arboretum to link environmental conditions to tree growth and other tree responses. This data package contains weather data at The Morton Arboretum from 2017-08-23 to 2023-12-31; data is located in the "MortonWeatherData2017_2023.csv" file. The two weather stations are located on each side of The Arboretum (e.g., the Nursery station on the East side and the Ware Field station on the West side; the two weather stations are 3.23 km apart and coordinates are included in the "Location_metadata.csv" file). Measured variables include rain accumulation, air temperature, relative humidity, three soil moisture/temperature measurements at various depths (10, 30, and 50 cm for the Nursery weather station, and 10, 25, and 50 cm for the Ware Field), solar radiation, saturation vapor pressure, and vapor pressure deficit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep root activity overprints weathering of petrogenic organic carbon in shale

The oxidation of organic carbon in sedimentary bedrock (petrogenic OC, OC petro ) is increasingly recognized as a potential source of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Recent studies provide evidence for the mobilization and oxidation of OC petro in sedimentary bedrock during rock weathering. However, the mechanisms and rates remain uncertain, particularly where overlying soils and vegetation drive contemporaneous oxidation of recently fixed organic carbon. Here, in this study, we quantify OC petro weathering across a 16 m shale depth profile in a steep, rapidly eroding forested hillslope in the Northern California Coast Ranges. We report solid and gas phase radiocarbon and stable isotope analyses of samples extracted from specialized in-situ samplers, and a supporting laboratory incubation experiment of the shale regolith. OC petro is removed from the weathered bedrock at a rate of approximately 0.12 gC/m 3 yr, which is orders of magnitude lower than the rate of OC petro oxidation we achieved in the laboratory with crushed samples (557.1 gC/m 3 yr). This disparity occurs despite high O 2(g) content across the depth profile, indicating that physical accessibility of OC petro can regulate oxidative weathering. There is no direct radiocarbon evidence of OC petro oxidation in CO 2(g) across the upper 13 m of the weathering profile during both wet and dry seasons. Instead, vadose zone CO 2(g) production at the site is dominated by respiration of recently fixed carbon associated with deep rooting. OC petro is clearly mobilized across the vadose zone during weathering in this rapidly eroding, oxygen-rich, biologically dynamic hillslope, but at rates far below what can be measured given the contribution of root-derived CO 2(g) .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate forcing controls on carbon terrestrial fluxes during shale weathering

Climate influences near-surface biogeochemical processes and thereby determines the partitioning of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in shale, and yet the controls on carbon (C) weathering fluxes remain poorly constrained. Using a dataset that characterizes biogeochemical responses to climate forcing in shale regolith, we implement a numerical model that describes the effects of water infiltration events, gas exchange, and temperature fluctuations on soil respiration and mineral weathering at a seasonal timescale. Our modeling approach allows us to quantitatively disentangle the controls of transient climate forcing and biogeochemical mechanisms on C partitioning. We find that ~3% of soil CO 2 (1.02 mol C/m 2 /y) is exported to the subsurface during large infiltration events. Here, net atmospheric CO 2 drawdown primarily occurs during spring snowmelt, governs the aqueous C exports (61%), and exceeds the CO 2 flux generated by pyrite and petrogenic organic matter oxidation (~0.2 mol C/m 2 /y). We show that shale CO 2 consumption results from the temporal coupling between soil microbial respiration and carbonate weathering. This coupling is driven by the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on fresh organic matter availability and CO 2 transport to the weathering front. Diffusion-limited transport of gases under transient hydrological conditions exerts an important control on CO 2 (g) egress patterns and thus must be considered when inferring soil CO 2 drawdown from the gas phase composition. Our findings emphasize the importance of seasonal climate forcing in shaping the net contribution of shale weathering to terrestrial C fluxes and suggest that warmer conditions could reduce the potential for shale weathering to act as a CO 2 sink.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Q-Learning-Based Impact Assessment of Propagating Extreme Weather on Distribution Grids

The increasing number of power outage events due to extreme weather conditions is hampering us socioeconomically. Preparing in advance for the extreme weather event is critical. It can help utility operators to reduce grid damages, restore grid service quickly, allocate energy resources and repair crews strategically, and hence dramatically increase grid resilience. In this paper, we propose a method to identify the sequence of worst impact zones in the power grid caused by extreme weather events based on Q-learning (a reinforcement learning algorithm). To quantity the weather severity and its effect on the grid, we model the impact of extreme weather on the grid as a function of intensity, vulnerability, and exposure. A modified IEEE 123-node distribution feeder is presented in a mesh grid and experimented for sequences of zones identification. Finally, simulation results present the identified sequences and their associated impacts on the grid caused by extreme weather events.

distribution system↗

Assessment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Upon the Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program: Assessment of the ARRA

The Department of Energy (DOE) administers the national low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Under this program, DOE provides grants to states (grantees), which then provide grants to local weatherization agencies (subgrantees), to weatherize income-eligible homes for free. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 allocated $5 billion in funding to WAP, a very significant increase from an annual appropriation that ranged in the $200–250 million range for many years. Furthermore, as part of a major evaluation of WAP, states and local weatherization agencies were surveyed, in part, to assess their experiences during the ARRA period. The substantial funding increase created a number of issues for the national weatherization network: the political visibility of their programs increased significantly, organizational responsibilities were shifted, new laws and regulations were passed that impacted their programs, media attention of their programs increased, federal oversight of their programs increased; and programmatic costs increased because of the increased oversight and because ARRA required WAP to operate under the provisions of the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931. There was also some concern within the national weatherization network that the influx of ARRA funds would permanently damage nonfederal funding leveraging relationships. However, two-thirds of grantees and over 40% of subgrantees stated that they believe that the long-term impacts of ARRA on leveraging relationships will be positive.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Personal Insights and Anecdotes about the Weatherization Assistance Program Process Field Study

The present report is based on the research conducted for the Process Field Study between March and September 2011. The Process Field Study documents how Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) services were delivered to clients, and the quality with which those services were delivered. The assessments were conducted by visiting 19 agencies in 19 states around the country interviewing agency managers, staff, and contractors; observing program intake along, with 43 audits, 45 measure installation and 37 final inspections; and conducting debriefing interviews with clients and weatherization staff following the observation of service delivery. In this report, we turn to detailed observations of a few field interactions. The client stories from our observations illustrate some of the ways clients and crew interact to build the success of the program, but shows there will always be unanticipated obstacles to building trust and getting the program to the public. Stories of staff and crew career paths indicate that weatherization technology and techniques are being learned and used by technicians out of the new home construction industry and that their new knowledge provides them with technical tools and methods that many hope to take back into the construction industry if and when they return. This report is organized according to the four stages of weatherization: intake, audit, installation, and inspection. It contributes to our understanding of the area where policy, environment, culture, and individual decisions influence social innovation. The anecdotes reveal the realities of implementing programs for the benefit of the greater good at minimal cost and sacrifice in times of ever restricting budgets. As the authors revisited their field notes and compiled memorable narratives to communicate the essence of the weatherization experience, they identified three key takeaways that summarize the major issues. First, in WAP as in all services there will always be challenges to reaching the community needing to be served. Second, crew and staff learn new skills and gain experience that can be and are applied in jobs elsewhere. Finally, in the best cases, changes from the weatherization experience permeate communities in unanticipated ways.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improving Microalgal Biomass Productivity Using Weather-Forecast-Informed Operations

The operation of microalgal cultivation systems, such as culture dilution associated with harvests, affects biomass productivity. However, the constantly changing incident light and ambient temperature in the outdoor environment make it difficult to determine the operational parameters that result in optimal biomass growth. To address this problem, we present a pond operation optimization tool that predicts biomass growth based on future weather conditions to identify the optimal dilution rate that maximizes biomass productivity. The concept was tested by comparing the biomass productivities of three dilution scenarios: standard batch cultivation (no dilution), fixed-rate dilution (harvest 60% of the culture every three days), and weather-forecast-informed dilution. In the weather-forecast-informed case, the culture was diluted daily, and the dilution ratio was optimized by the operation optimization tool according to the future 24 h weather condition. The results show that the weather-forecast-informed dilution improved the biomass productivity by 47% over the standard batch cultivation and 20% over the fixed-rate dilution case. These results demonstrate that the pond operation optimization tool could help pond operators to make decisions that maximize biomass growth in the field under ever-changing weather conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Series FACTS Devices for Increasing Resiliency in Severe Weather Conditions

Severe weather conditions are low-probability, high-impact events that affect grid operations. The majority of power outages are caused by severe weather conditions. Grid resiliency to weather events can be enhanced by decreasing the reliance on its affected sections. One way to do this is to reduce the power flow through lines vulnerable to severe weather. If a line is disconnected, its initial power flow is distributed through the neighbor lines, which may cause congestion in the grid. FACTS devices can be used to control the power flow of lines that have a higher chance of power outages. Most previous works do not consider weather events in power flow control. In this work, a linearized optimal power flow (OPF)–based algorithm is developed to minimize the real power flow of vulnerable lines considering the thermal limits of lines to prevent infeasible solutions; the simulation is fast, making it suitable for large-scale systems. The proposed optimization problem is presented as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP), making it capable of using short-term load forecasting due to its high solution speed. The proposed optimization problem considers multiple lines with different outage probabilities and the uncertainties of the weather forecast. Moreover, it estimates the power reduction in vulnerable lines due to changes in the series FACTS devices. The performance of the proposed optimization problem is tested on IEEE 14-, 30-, and 118-bus systems for several scenarios. The results are validated with the AC power flow results from MATPOWER.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

air traffic routing↗