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At least 289 records · Page 16

Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

An analytic study of the Charney problem on the sphere

An analytic study of the Charney (1947) problem is presented, in which a shortwave approximation and a two-scale assumption are adopted to derive approximate solutions for the problem. The solutions contain a second-order turning point whose location is important in determining the properties of baroclinic unstable waves. This turning point is located at the maximum of the meridional temperature gradient. The solutions indicate a close relation between baroclinic instability on the sphere and on a Beta-plane. The solutions have some limitations and are not valid for long waves. It is suggested that the solutions have implications for parameterizations of eddy fluxes in climate modeling.

Lee, Yung-An↗

Annual, orbital, and enigmatic variations in tropical oceanography recorded by the Equatorial Atlantic amplifier

Equatorial Atlantic surface waters respond directly to changes in zonal and meridional lower tropospheric winds forced by annual insolation. This mechanism has its maximum effect along the equatorial wave guide centered on 10 deg W. The result is to amplify even subtle tropical climate changes such that they are recorded by marked amplitude changes in the proxy signals. Model realizations, NCAR AGCM and OGCM for 0 Ka and 126 Ka (January and July), and paleoceanographic proxy data show that these winds are also forced by insolation changes at the orbital periods of precession and obliquity. Perhelion in boreal summer produces a strengthened monsoon, e.g., increase meridional and decrease zonal wind stress. This reduces oceanic Ekman divergence and thermocline/nutricline shallowing. The result, in the equatorial Atlantic, is reduced primary productivity and higher euphotic zone temperatures; vice versa for perihelion in boreal winter. Perihelion is controlled by precession. Thus, the dominant period in spectra from a stacked SST record (0-252 Ka BP) at the site of the equatorial Atlantic amplifier is 23 Ky (53 percent of the total variance). This precessional period is coherent (k = 0.920) and in phase with boreal summer insolation. Oscillations of shorter period are present in records from cores sited beneath the amplifier region. These occur between 12.5 and 74.5 Ka BP, when eccentricity modulation of precession is at a minimum. Within this time interval there are 21 cycles with mean periods of 3.0 plus or minus 0.5 Ky. Similar periods have been documented from high latitude regions, e.g., Greenland ice cores from Camp Century. The Camp Century signal in this same time interval contains 21 cycles. A subjective correlation was made between the Camp Century and the equatorial records; the signals were statistically similar, r = 0.722 and k = 0.960.

Mcintyre, Andrew↗

Civil Procedure for the Anthropocene

Climate considerations must become an element of procedural analysis. Scholars, rule makers, legislators, and judges have historically prioritized procedural values including cost, speed, and accuracy. More recent waves of scholarship—including critical perspectives—have emphasized participation as a further procedural goal. Yet this list has grown stale. Current environmental realities force all areas of law, including civil procedure, to reckon with climate change. In the future, proceduralists will be forced to integrate climate-aware thinking into their analyses, proposals, and discussions. Predictably, minds will disagree on how to accomplish this and the kinds of trade-offs that are warranted. Yet the fundamental point of this article remains: climate change resilience is a procedural concern that has not been recognized but must be. This signals not the genesis of a new branch of procedural scholarship but an opportunity to broaden the discussion for all procedural scholarship. In addition, this Article serves as a guide for rule makers and legislators who have just recently begun to show interest in climate-aware procedures. It directs them to procedural topics that require urgent attention, provides implementation strategies for developing resilient procedures, and considers the attendant costs and benefits of different approaches ranging from laissez-faire to aggressive engagement. Just as civil procedural innovations contributed to the emergence and success of the civil rights movement, our collective response to climate change will also be shaped by civil procedure. This Article prepares for this future and offers a corrective to the field’s failure to anticipate and respond to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM↗

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Explicit Cloud Representation in the Atmos 1D Climate Model for Earth and Rocky Planet Applications

1D climate models are less sophisticated than 3D global circulation models (GCMs), however their computational time is much less expensive, allowing a large number of runs in a short period of time to explore a wide parameter space. Exploring parameter space is particularly important for predicting the observable properties of exoplanets, for which few parameters are known with certainty. Therefore, 1D climate models are still very useful tools for planetary studies. In most of these 1D models, clouds are not physically represented in the atmosphere, despite having a well-known, significant impact on a planetary radiative budget. This impact is simulated by artificially raising surface albedo, in order to reproduce the observed-averaged surface temperature (i.e. 288 K for modern Earth) and a radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere. This non-physical representation of clouds, causes atmospheric long wave and shortwaves fluxes to not match observational data. Additionally, this technique represents a parameter that is highly-tuned to modern Earth’s climate, and may not be appropriate for planets that deviate from modern Earth’s climate conditions. In this paper, we present an update to the climate model within the Atmos 1­D atmospheric modeling package with a physical representation of clouds. We show that this physical representation of clouds in the atmosphere allows both long wave and shortwave fluxes to match observational data. This improvement will allow us to study the energy fluxes for a variety of cloudy rocky planets, and increase our confidence in future simulations of temperature profile and net energy balance.

Thomas Fauchez↗

In the Shade of Affluence: The Inequitable Distribution of the Urban Heat Island

The urban heat island is an unintended consequence of humans building upon rural and native landscapes. We hypothesized that variations in vegetation and land use patterns across an urbanizing regional landscape would produce a temperature distribution that was spatially heterogeneous and correlated with the social characteristics of urban neighborhoods. Using biophysical and social data scaled to conform to US census geography, we found that affluent whites were more likely to live in vegetated and less climatically stressed neighborhoods likely to live in than low-income Latinos in Phoenix, Arizona. Affluent neighborhoods had cooler summer temperatures that reduced exposure to outdoor heat-related health risks, especially during a heat wave period. In addition to being warmer, poorer neighborhoods lacked critical resources in their physical and social environments to help them cope with extreme heat. Increased average temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate the impacts of urban heat islands.

Harlan, Sharon L.↗

Analysis of rainfall over northern Peru during El Nino: A PCDS application

In an examination of GOES satellite data during the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period, the appearance of lee wave cloud patterns was revealed. A correlation was hypothesized relating an anomalous easterly flow across the Andes with the appearance of these wave patterns and with the subsequent onset of intense rainfall. The cloud patterns are belived to be associated with the El Nino period and could be viewed as precursors to significant changes in weather patterns. The ultimate goal of the researchers will be the ability to predict occurrences of rainstorms associated with the appearance of lee waves and related cloud patterns as harbingers of destruction caused by flooding, huaycos, and other catastrophic consequences of heavy and abnormal rainfall. Rainfall data from about 70 stations in northern Peru from 1980 through 1984 were formatted to be utilized within the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS). This time period includes the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period. As an example of the approach, a well-pronounced lee wave pattern was shown from a GOES satellite image of April 4, 1983. The ground truth data were then displayed via the PCDS to graphically demonstrate the increase in intensity and areal distribution of rainfall in the northern Peruvian area in the next 4 to 5 days.

Goldberg, R.↗

Hydraulic performance and wave transmission through nature-inspired perforated hollow-base piles breakwater

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are critical to achieving long-term sustainable coastlines in deltaic coastlines, particularly susceptible to severe impacts under climate change. In recent years, coastal erosion has accelerated in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), particularly in the West Sea (from Ca Mau to Kien Giang). Due to the characteristics of muddy coastlines and eroded mangrove forests in this region, only a few engineering solutions have effectively reduced waves and promoted sediment accumulation to facilitate beach accretion. However, these solutions require significant investment and cannot be relocated or reused. Therefore, this study introduces a coastal mangrove-inspired perforated hollow-base piles breakwater (PHBPB), which uses the principle of biomimicry by studying the ability of mangrove groups to protect the coastline, stimulate sediment deposition, and over time, restore mangrove forests in the VMD. The hydraulic parameters of PHBPB were tested in 260 scenarios using a physical model, which included varying parameters such as crest width (B), pile row numbers (n c ), crest freeboard (R c ), and wave parameters (H s , T p ) in determining the capabilities of wave transmission, reflection, and wave dissipation. The results showed that the process of wave energy dissipation through perforated hollow-base breakwaters without piles (PHBBWP) is governed by three main parameters, including the relative water depth of the crest (R c /H m0,i ), the relative width of the crest (B/H m0,i ), and the wave slope at the structure location (s m = H m0,i /L m ). In contrast, for PHBPB, the primary influencing factors are the relative submergence depth or the length of the submerged pile portion (R c /H m0,i ) and the relative width of the pile system (X b /L m ). Finally, the hollow structure is suitable for the soft, weak mud geology in this region with poor load-bearing capacity, allows for rapid installation, is reasonably cost-effective, and can be relocated and reused once regeneration has been completed in each stretch of coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a Theory of Tropical/Midlatitude Mass Exchange from the Earth's Surface through the Stratosphere

The main findings of this research project have been the following: (1) there is a significant feedback from the stratosphere on tropospheric dynamics, and (2) a detailed analysis of the interaction between tropical and polar wave breaking in controlling stratospheric mixing. Two papers are were written and are included. The first paper is titled, "A New Perspective on the Dynamical Link Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere." Atmospheric processes of tropospheric origin can perturb the stratosphere, but direct feedback in the opposite direction is usually assumed to be negligible, despite the troposphere's sensitivity to changes in the release of wave activity into the stratosphere. Here, however, we present evidence that such a feedback exists and can be significant. We find that if the wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric vortex is distorted, either by waves propagating upward from the troposphere or by eastward-travelling stratospheric waves, then there is a concomitant redistribution of stratospheric potential vorticity that induces perturbations in key meteorological fields in the upper troposphere. The feedback is large despite the much greater mass of the troposphere: it can account for up to half of the geopotential height anomaly at the tropopause. Although the relative strength of the feedback is partly due to a cancellation between contributions to these anomalies from lower altitudes, our results imply that stratospheric dynamics and its feedback on the troposphere are more significant for climate modelling and data assimilation than was previously assumed. The second article is titled "Diagnosing the Polar Excitation of Subtropical Waves in the Stratosphere". The poleward migration of planetary scale tongues of subtropical air has often been associated with intense polar vortex disturbances in the stratosphere. This question of vortex influence is reexamined from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. Anomalous geopotential height and wind fields associated solely with vortex PV anomalies are derived and their impact on the stratospheric subtropical circulation is evaluated. Combined PV inversion and Contour Advection (CA) calculations indicate that transient large scale disturbances of the polar vortex do have a far reaching impact that extends beyond the midlatitude surf zone all the way to the subtropics. This vortex influence is clearly non-local so that even simple wave 2 distortions that leave the vortex well confined within the midlatitudes are observed to excite subtropical waves. Treating subtropical PV as active tracers also showed that upon entrainment, these large scale tongues of low PV air also influenced the dynamics of their own poleward migration.

Hartley, Dana↗

Simulation and Prediction of Warm Season Drought in North America

This presentation presents our recent work on model simulation and prediction of warm season drought in North America. The emphasis will be on the contribution from the leading modes of subseasonal atmospheric circulation variability, which are often present in the form of stationary Rossby waves. Here we take advantage of the results from observations, reanalyses, and simulations and reforecasts performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric and coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that stationary Rossby waves play a key role in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology variability on subseasonal timescales. In particular, such waves have been crucial to the development of recent short-term warm season heat waves and droughts over North America (e.g. the 1988, 1998, and 2012 summer droughts) and northern Eurasia (e.g., the 2003 summer heat wave over Europe and the 2010 summer drought and heat wave over Russia). Through an investigation of the physical processes by which these waves lead to the development of warm season drought in North America, it is further found that these waves can serve as a potential source of drought predictability. In order to properly represent their effect and exploit this source of predictability, a model needs to correctly simulate the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean jet streams and be able to predict the sources of these waves. Given the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM deficiency in simulating the NH jet streams and tropical convection during boreal summer, an approach has been developed to artificially remove much of model mean biases, which leads to considerable improvement in model simulation and prediction of stationary Rossby waves and drought development in North America. Our study points to the need to identify key model biases that limit model simulation and prediction of regional climate extremes, and diagnose the origin of these biases so as to inform modeling group for model improvement.

Rossby Waves↗

Exploring Ecological, Morphological, and Environmental Controls on Coastal Foredune Evolution at Annual Scales Using a Process-Based Model

Coastal communities commonly rely upon foredunes as the first line of defense against sea-level rise and storms, thus requiring management guidance to optimize their protective services. Here, we use the AeoLiS model to simulate wind-driven accretion and wave-driven erosion patterns on foredunes with different morphologies and ecological properties under modern-day conditions. Additional sets of model runs mimic potential future climate changes to inform how both morphological and ecological properties may have differing contributions to net dune changes under evolving environmental forcing. This exploratory study, applied to represent the morphological, environmental, and ecological conditions of the northern Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA, finds that dunes experiencing minimal wave collision have similar net volumetric growth rates regardless of beach morphology, though the location and density of vegetation influence sediment deposition patterns across the dune profile. The model indicates that high-density, uniform planting strategies trap sediment close to the dune toe, whereas low-density plantings may allow for accretion across a broader extent of the dune face. The initial beach and dune shape generally plays a larger role in annual-scale dune evolution than vegetation cover. For steeper beach slopes and/or low dune toe elevations, the model generally predicts wave-driven dune erosion at the annual scale.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗