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At least 289 records · Page 16

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A new stream function formulation for the Euler equations

A new stream function formulation is developed for the solution of Euler's equations in the transonic flow region. The stream function and the density are the dependent variables in this method, while the governing equations for adiabatic flow are the momentum equations which are solved in the strong conservation law form. The application of this method does not require a knowledge of the vorticity. The algorithm is combined with the automatic grid solver (GRAPE) of Steger and Sorenson (1979) in order to study arbitrary geometries. Results of the application of this method are presented for the NACA 0012 airfoil at various Mach numbers and angles of attack, and cylinders. In addition, detailed comparisons are made with other solutions of the Euler equations.

Atkins, H. L.↗

Incorporating Parallel Computing into the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations or forecast alone can provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called the analysis, are regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. Analysis plays a key role in numerical weather prediction and is becoming increasingly important for climate research. These applications, and the need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system pose computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. The mission of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. The system used to create these datasets is the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The core components of the the GEOS DAS are: the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM), the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), the Observer, the on-line Quality Control (QC) system, the Coupler (which feeds analysis increments back to the GCM), and an I/O package for processing the large amounts of data the system produces (which will be described in another presentation in this session). The discussion will center on the following issues: the computational complexity for the whole GEOS DAS, assessment of the performance of the individual elements of GEOS DAS, and parallelization strategy for some of the components of the system.

Larson, Jay W.↗

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗

Optimized Dispatch of Distributed Energy Resources for Resiliency and Power Quality Improvements at the Grid-Edge

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) installed on low-voltage distribution systems, both utility-owned and nonutility owned may be employed to make improvements to system resiliency and power quality, in addition to simply serving load demand. By selectively dispatching active and reactive power from these existing DERs, improvements in voltage profiles and service availability during adverse events may be achieved. Further benefits can be gained by optimally choosing which DERs to dispatch power from, and the distribution of power from those DERs. For a given operating condition, using Linear Programming methods, optimal power dispatch values for individual DERs can be determined, while considering variables such as voltage gains, losses in the lines and the DERs, and DER reserve capacities. One such optimization technique is developed in this paper, and results from a real-time simulation study on a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution system with three DERs, are being presented. The operation of the optimized DER selection and dispatch algorithm is shown during normal operation of the transmission system when the DERs operate in grid-connected mode. Similar analyses can drive decision making during transmission system failure when the DERs operate in grid-forming or islanded mode.

Chowdhury, Prithwiraj Roy↗

Quantum effects on the dynamics and properties of soft materials

The quantum effects of nuclear and electronic motion play an important role in the structure, dynamics, and function of soft materials, yet they are difficult to capture with conventional classical simulations or static electronic–structure methods. In this work several complementary approaches for treating quantum effects in polymeric and soft–matter systems are demonstrated, with a focus being on the hydrogen-bonded networks, ion and charge transport, and photoactive chromophores. The proton transfer, tunneling, and isotope effects are captured within the reduced-dimensionality models by implementing grid-based nuclear quantum dynamics in terms of the discrete variable and Fourier bases. The nuclear quantum dynamics is extended to larger systems by employing the quantum trajectories and quantum–thermal bath schemes combined with on-the-fly electronic structure, enabling the description of high-dimensional polymeric environments at feasible cost. The dynamics in the electronic degrees of freedom, simulating the optical response in large chromophores such as chlorophylls, is performed using the real-time time-dependent density functional theory implemented in the real-space multigrid (RMG) code. These approaches are demonstrated on case studies of the proton and hydroxide transport in hydrated polymer membranes, charge transfer in conjugated polymers, and the optical spectra of chlorophyll chromophores relevant to polymerized chlorophyll materials and chlorophyll–polymer hybrids. The reviewed methods and applications highlight practical routes of including quantum effects in simulations of soft functional materials.

Garashchuk, Sophya [Univ. of South Carolina, Colum↗

HexWeather: Hexagonal Spatial Data Aggregation for Weather-Driven Grid Resilience Analysis

Extreme weather accounts for over 8 0 % of major U.S. power outages since 2000, highlighting the need for spatial tools that align weather data with the irregular boundaries of electric infrastructure. This paper introduces HexWeather, a modular, resolution-aware framework for aggregating historical and forecasted weather data using Uber's H3 hexagonal spatial indexing system. Unlike traditional methods that rely on state or county-level grids, HexWeather enables weather analysis across custom geographies such as utility service areas where public datasets are often unavailable or misaligned. Using Open-Meteo data, we evaluate how H3 resolution affects anomaly detection, spatial variability, and forecast uncertainty across three scales: state, county, and utility. Results show that while coarse resolutions suffice for broad trend tracking, finer resolutions are essential for identifying localized variability and operational risks. By applying metrics like Z-score standard deviation and interquartile range, HexWeather quantifies the spatial spread of both historical anomalies and forecasted conditions, allowing users to assess resolution adequacy for each analysis. This framework supports rapid weather data reuse, reproducible anomaly detection, and predictive modeling for infrastructure resilience. By bridging spatial misalignment in traditional datasets and enabling retrospective and forward-looking analysis within the same pipeline, HexWeather lays the groundwork for better post event analysis, outage prediction, and resilience planning.

Morris, Jacob [ORNL]↗

The multigrid method: Fast relaxation

A multi-level grid method was studied as a possible means of accelerating convergence in relaxation calculations for transonic flows. The method employs a hierarchy of grids, ranging from very coarse (e.g. 4 x 2 mesh cells) to fine (e.g. 64 x 32); the coarser grids are used to diminish the magnitude of the smooth part of the residuals, hopefully with far less total work than would be required with optimal iterations on the finest grid. To date the method was applied quite successfully to the solution of the transonic small-disturbance equation for the velocity potential in conservation form. Nonlifting transonic flow past a parabolic arc airfoil is the example studied, with meshes of both constant and variable step size.

South, J. C., Jr.↗

A Two-Dimensional Linear Bicharacteristic FDTD Method

The linear bicharacteristic scheme (LBS) was originally developed to improve unsteady solutions in computational acoustics and aeroacoustics. The LBS has previously been extended to treat lossy materials for one-dimensional problems. It is a classical leapfrog algorithm, but is combined with upwind bias in the spatial derivatives. This approach preserves the time-reversibility of the leapfrog algorithm, which results in no dissipation, and it permits more flexibility by the ability to adopt a characteristic based method. The use of characteristic variables allows the LBS to include the Perfectly Matched Layer boundary condition with no added storage or complexity. The LBS offers a central storage approach with lower dispersion than the Yee algorithm, plus it generalizes much easier to nonuniform grids. It has previously been applied to two and three-dimensional free-space electromagnetic propagation and scattering problems. This paper extends the LBS to the two-dimensional case. Results are presented for point source radiation problems, and the FDTD algorithm is chosen as a convenient reference for comparison.

Beggs, John H.↗

Adjoint Formulation for an Embedded-Boundary Cartesian Method

Many problems in aerodynamic design can be characterized by smooth and convex objective functions. This motivates the use of gradient-based algorithms, particularly for problems with a large number of design variables, to efficiently determine optimal shapes and configurations that maximize aerodynamic performance. Accurate and efficient computation of the gradient, however, remains a challenging task. In optimization problems where the number of design variables dominates the number of objectives and flow- dependent constraints, the cost of gradient computations can be significantly reduced by the use of the adjoint method. The problem of aerodynamic optimization using the adjoint method has been analyzed and validated for both structured and unstructured grids. The method has been applied to design problems governed by the potential, Euler, and Navier-Stokes equations and can be subdivided into the continuous and discrete formulations. Giles and Pierce provide a detailed review of both approaches. Most implementations rely on grid-perturbation or mapping procedures during the gradient computation that explicitly couple changes in the surface shape to the volume grid. The solution of the adjoint equation is usually accomplished using the same scheme that solves the governing flow equations. Examples of such code reuse include multistage Runge-Kutta schemes coupled with multigrid, approximate-factorization, line-implicit Gauss-Seidel, and also preconditioned GMRES. The development of the adjoint method for aerodynamic optimization problems on Cartesian grids has been limited. In contrast to implementations on structured and unstructured grids, Cartesian grid methods decouple the surface discretization from the volume grid. This feature makes Cartesian methods well suited for the automated analysis of complex geometry problems, and consequently a promising approach to aerodynamic optimization. Melvin e t al. developed an adjoint formulation for the TRANAIR code, which is based on the full-potential equation with viscous corrections. More recently, Dadone and Grossman presented an adjoint formulation for the Euler equations. In both approaches, a boundary condition is introduced to approximate the effects of the evolving surface shape that results in accurate gradient computation.

Nemec, Marian↗

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Two Colorable Fourth Order Compact Difference Scheme and Parallel Iterative Solution of the 3D Convection Diffusion Equation

A new fourth order compact difference scheme for the three dimensional convection diffusion equation with variable coefficients is presented. The novelty of this new difference scheme is that it Only requires 15 grid points and that it can be decoupled with two colors. The entire computational grid can be updated in two parallel subsweeps with the Gauss-Seidel type iterative method. This is compared with the known 19 point fourth order compact differenCe scheme which requires four colors to decouple the computational grid. Numerical results, with multigrid methods implemented on a shared memory parallel computer, are presented to compare the 15 point and the 19 point fourth order compact schemes.

Zhang, Jun↗

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Long-term Trend - Part 1

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Chen, Junye↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience

The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.

microgrid↗

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Accelerated solution of the steady Euler equations

The present paper is concerned with two methods for the accelerated solution of the steady Euler equations. One method makes use of a second-order embedding to facilitate the derivation of the relaxation solution of the steady equations of motion, while the other method employs a multile-gridding concept to accelerate the convergence of a simple, explicit, time-marching scheme applied to the unsteady equations. It is pointed out that the surrogate equation technique provides a means for formulating problems involving the full steady Euler equations in such a way as to allow the use of relaxation solution procedures. It is, therefore, possible to solve either irrotational or rotational flow problems spanning the entire spectrum of subsonic, transonic, and supersonic conditions. The solutions can be obtained without an employement of either derived dependent variables, semidirect methods, or an unsteady formulation.

Johnson, G. M.↗

Flight vehicle propellant surface motion by numerical method

The marker and cell technique is applied to three idealized hydrodynamic situations of interest to the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET). These applications illustrate the versatility of this technique as well as its usefulness in solving similar problems in the aerospace industry. The codes used are the simplified marker and cell (SMAC) code and the variable grid simplified marker and cell code named ERIE. The examples focus on the dropout height in the LH2 tank, the slosh behavior of propellant in the bottom dome of the ET during thrust termination, both of which are required to accurately determine the amount of usable propellants, and the effect on liquid surface due to LO2 tank wall motions occurring during Space Shuttle lift-off. Comparisons with experimental results and linear theory are also presented.

Mehta, G.↗