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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

GridAPPS-D™ a distribution management platform to develop applications for rural electric utilities

Rural electric utilities, many of which operate with a co-op management approach, have unique operational challenges not shared with their municipal or IOU counterparts. Rural electric utilities typically have fewer customers per feeder mile, and are generally less able to afford the costs, or provide robust support for today’s Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) offerings. Additionally, co-ops typically do not need the full suite of ADMS offerings but would benefit from a subset of applications such as OMS, Unbalanced Power-Flow, Volt-VAR optimization and FLISR (Fault Location Isolation and Service Restoration). Their needs, even within these applications, are simpler and more standardized. Lastly, due to their size, their IT capabilities and resources are commonly limited; hence hardware and software needs to be standards-based and easy to maintain with only most expansions of current capabilities. GridAPPS-D™ is an open-source, application development environment that’s part of the Department of Energy’s Grid Modernization Efforts, being led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The GridAPPS-D project is developing a reference architecture and implementation with the goal of reducing the time and cost to integrate distribution applications for both planning and operations through the use of standardized interfaces and data models. In this paper, we present a view of the reference architecture for GridAPPS-D and highlight its applicability to the rural electric utilities’ needs, including descriptions of applications being developed using this platform, and how they can be applied to other rural electric utilities.

distribution management, GridAPPS-D, rural electri↗
DOE OSTI2018

Releasing Correlated Trajectories: Towards High Utility and Optimal Differential Privacy

A mutual correlation between trajectories of two users is very helpful to real-life applications such as product recommendation and social media. While providing tremendous benefits, the releasing of correlated trajectories may leak sensitive social relations, due to potential links between mutual correlations and social relations. To the best of our knowledge, here we take the first step to propose a mathematically rigorous n-body Laplace framework, satisfying epsilon-differential privacy, which efficiently prevents a social relation inference through the mutual correlation between n-node trajectories of two users. The problem is mathematically formulated by defining a trajectory correlation score to measure the social relation between two users. Then, under the n-body Laplace framework, we propose two Lagrange Multiplier-based Differentially Private (LMDP) approaches to optimize the privacy budgets, for the data utility measured by location distances and the data utility measured by location correlations, i.e., UD-LMDP and UC-LMDP. Also, we present detailed analyses of privacy, data utility, adversary knowledge and the constrained optimizations. Finally, we perform experimental studies with real-life data. Our experimental results show that our proposed approaches achieve better privacy and data utility than the existing approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improvement of Transmission Line Ampacity Utilization by Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

Most of the existing overhead transmission lines (TLs) are assigned a static rating by considering the conservative environmental conditions (e.g., high ambient temperature and low wind speed). Such a conservative approach often results in underutilization of line ampacity because the worst conditions prevail only for a short period of time during the year. Dynamic line rating (DLR) utilizes local meteorological conditions and grid loadings to adaptively compute additional line ampacity headroom that may be available due to favorable local environmental conditions. This paper details Idaho National Laboratory-developed weather-based DLR, which utilizes a state-of-the-art general line ampacity state solver for real-time computation of thermal ratings of TLs. Performance of the proposed DLR solution is demonstrated in existing TL segments at AltaLink, Canada, and the potential benefits of the proposed DLR for enhanced transmission ampacity utilization are quantified. Moreover, we investigated a hypothetical case for emulating the impact of an additional wind plant near the test grid. Furthermore, the results for the given system and data configurations demonstrated that real-time ratings were above the seasonal static ratings for at least 76.6% of the time, with a mean increase of 22% over the static rating, thereby demonstrating huge potential for improvement on ampacity utilization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of formic acid by extremely thermoacidophilic archaea species

The exploration of novel hosts with the ability to assimilate formic acid, a C1 substrate that can be produced from renewable electrons and CO 2 , is of great relevance for developing novel and sustainable biomanufacturing platforms. Formatotrophs can use formic acid or formate as a carbon and/or reducing power source. Formatotrophy has typically been studied in neutrophilic microorganisms because formic acid toxicity increases in acidic environments below the pKa of 3.75 (25°C). Because of this toxicity challenge, utilization of formic acid as either a carbon or energy source has been largely unexplored in thermoacidophiles, species that possess the ability to produce a variety of metabolites and enzymes of high biotechnological relevance. Here we investigate the capacity of several thermoacidophilic archaea species from the Sulfolobales order to tolerate and metabolize formic acid. Metallosphaera prunae, Sulfolobus metallicus and Sulfolobus acidocaldarium were found to metabolize and grow with 1–2 mM of formic acid in batch cultivations. Formic acid was co-utilized by this species alongside physiological electron donors, including ferrous iron. To enhance formic acid utilization while maintaining aqueous concentrations below the toxicity threshold, we developed a bioreactor culturing method based on a sequential formic acid feeding strategy. By dosing small amounts of formic acid sequentially and feeding H 2 as co-substrate, M. prunae could utilize a total of 16.3 mM of formic acid and grow to higher cell densities than when H 2 was supplied as a sole electron donor. These results demonstrate the viability of culturing thermoacidophilic species with formic acid as an auxiliary substrate in bioreactors to obtain higher cell densities than those yielded by conventional autotrophic conditions. Our work underscores the significance of formic acid metabolism in extreme habitats and holds promise for biotechnological applications in the realm of sustainable energy production and environmental remediation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient chito–oligosaccharide utilization requires two TonB–dependent transporters and one hexosaminidase in Cellvibrio japonicus

Chitin utilization by microbes plays a significant role in biosphere carbon and nitrogen cycling, and studying the microbial approaches used to degrade chitin will facilitate our understanding of bacterial strategies to degrade a broad range of recalcitrant polysaccharides. The early stages of chitin depolymerization by the bacterium Cellvibrio japonicus have been characterized and are dependent on one chitin-specific lytic polysaccharide monooxygenase and non-redundant glycoside hydrolases from the family GH18 to generate chito-oligosaccharides for entry into metabolism. Here, we describe the mechanisms for the latter stages of chitin utilization by C. japonicus with an emphasis on the fate of chito-oligosaccharides. Here, our systems biology approach combined transcriptomics and bacterial genetics using ecologically relevant substrates to determine the essential mechanisms for chito-oligosaccharide transport and catabolism in Cellvibrio japonicus. Using RNAseq analysis we found a coordinated expression of genes that encode polysaccharide-degrading enzymes. Mutational analysis determined that the hex20B gene product, predicted to encode a hexosaminidase, was required for efficient utilization of chito-oligosaccharides. Furthermore, two gene loci (CJA_0353 and CJA_1157), which encode putative TonB-dependent transporters, were also essential for chito-oligosaccharides utilization. This study further develops our model of C. japonicus chitin metabolism and may be predictive for other environmentally or industrially important bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pressurization Analysis for Heating of a Screw Top Utility Can Loaded With Plutonium Oxide Powder by a 1273 K Fire

The documented safety analysis for the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) evaluates the consequences of a postulated 1273 K fire in a glovebox. The radiological dose consequences for a pressurized release of plutonium oxide powder during such a fire depend on the maximum pressure that is attained inside the oxide storage containers. The oxide storage configuration selected for analysis is can/bag/can, comprised of oxide powder inside an 8.38 × 10 -6 m 3 stainless steel B vial inside 0.006 kg of polyethylene bagging inside a one-quart screw top utility can of the type commonly used to package solvents or rubber cements. To enable evaluation of the dose consequences, temperature and pressure transients have been calculated for exposure of a typical set of storage containers to the fire. The pressurization analysis credits venting to and from the B vial but does not credit venting or leakage from the can. Due to the low rate of venting from the B vial into the can gas space, the can pressure is nearly independent of the B vial pressure. Calculated maximum pressures are compared to the utility can burst pressure. In lieu of a structural analysis of the utility cans, burst pressures and leakage rates were measured using compressed nitrogen gas. The measured gauge burst pressure was 0.250 ± 0.043 MPa. The measured burst pressures are lower than the calculated maximum pressure due to fire exposure, indicating that the utility cans could burst during exposure to a 1273 K fire.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

Potential Demand Reduction from Buildings in a Simulated Utility

The availability of large-area sensing, scalable algorithms, and high-performance computing has enabled the possibility of urban-scale building energy modeling using new methods not limited to the scalability of manual building energy model creation or retrieval of county-by-county tax assessor’s data. Automatic Building detection and Energy Model creation (AutoBEM) has created 178,368 building energy models for the Electric Power Board (EPB) of Chattanooga, TN, and compared simulation performance to 15-minute data from each building. These models leverage several data sources (e.g. imagery, GIS, utility), software tools to extract building properties (e.g. footprint, height, façade type, window-to-wall ratio, occupancy, building type), simulate at scale on two of the world’s #1 fastest supercomputers, and provide web-based visual analytics.Grid-interactive efficient buildings offer the potential to reduce utility and rate-payer energy costs during each calendar month’s hour of critical generation – when the least efficient, most costly, and often dirtiest generation assets must be brought online. In this paper, EnergyPlus is used to simulate over 150,000 buildings to assess the technical potential of utility-controlled smart thermostats. This is analyzed under a couple scenarios leveraging buildings as thermal batteries via pre-conditioning to coast through peak hours. Results are provided in box and whisker plots assessing the distribution of peak demand reduction at the utility-scale along with breakouts of energy and demand savings by building type and vintage.

Bass, Brett↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Energy Storage Density Utilization Trends in Redox Flow Battery Chemistries

The transition to new energy resources is driving the need for efficient energy storage. Redox flow batteries (RFBs) are a promising solution due to their flexible design and safer materials, particularly for long-duration storage applications. Despite these advantages, RFB technologies still have considerable room for growth in terms of utilizing all of their available energy storage density. Herein, we assess RFB energy storage density utilization trends for multiple chemistries by accounting for their unique thermodynamic limits, energy efficiencies, and charge capacity constraints. Of the RFBs chemistries analyzed, most still use less than 60% of their theoretical energy storage capacity. The conventional all-vanadium RFB was the closest to its thermodynamic limit available. Moreover, the volumetric footprint and electrolyte cost analyses demonstrate the real-world implications of these inefficiencies. This analysis further indicates that future studies would benefit from clearer reporting of two key quantities: discharge efficiency, which is more directly tied to practically recoverable energy density than round-trip energy efficiency, and state-of-charge or capacity-utilization limits, which govern access to theoretical storage capacity. More consistent reporting of these factors would improve the accuracy and comparability of energy storage utilization analyses across RFB chemistries.

battery energy storage↗
DOE OSTI2026

Binder-Stabilized Carbon Fiber Hosts for High-Utilization Sodium–Polysulfide Flow Catholytes

Sodium-sulfur (Na-S) batteries hold promise as high-energy-density batteries for long-duration energy storage due to their high open circuit voltage and Earth-abundant active materials. However, low utilization of the sulfur active material limits the achievable specific capacity, especially when a liquid polysulfide catholyte is utilized. High-surface-area carbon materials demonstrate promise to increase sulfur utilization in a Na-S battery. To make the carbon host material applicable for a flow battery application, a binder is required to bind the carbon materials together and to a porous substrate. Here, we utilize a composite carbon paper electrode coated by polymer,carbon nanofibers (CNFs) and carbon black (CB). By varying the mass ratios of CNF to CB, we found that a 70/20/10 mass ratio of CNF/CB/binder provided the highest capacity (260 mAh g −1 compared to the baseline of 156 mAh g −1 ) and stable battery performance over 100 cycles. Analysis of the composite electrode and full cells reveals that the amount of CB in the composite electrode influences binder distribution, cell resistance, and full cell performance.

Lehmann, Michelle L. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prescribed fires, smoke exposure, and hospital utilization among heart failure patients

Abstract Background Prescribed fires often have ecological benefits, but their environmental health risks have been infrequently studied. We investigated associations between residing near a prescribed fire, wildfire smoke exposure, and heart failure (HF) patients’ hospital utilization. Methods We used electronic health records from January 2014 to December 2016 in a North Carolina hospital-based cohort to determine HF diagnoses, primary residence, and hospital utilization. Using a cross-sectional study design, we associated the prescribed fire occurrences within 1, 2, and 5 km of the patients’ primary residence with the number of hospital visits and 7- and 30-day readmissions. To compare prescribed fire associations with those observed for wildfire smoke, we also associated zip code-level smoke density data designed to capture wildfire smoke emissions with hospital utilization amongst HF patients. Quasi-Poisson regression models were used for the number of hospital visits, while zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used for readmissions. All models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and neighborhood socioeconomic status and included an offset for follow-up time. The results are the percent change and the 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Associations between prescribed fire occurrences and hospital visits were generally null, with the few associations observed being with prescribed fires within 5 and 2 km of the primary residence in the negative direction but not the more restrictive 1 km radius. However, exposure to medium or heavy smoke (primarily from wildfires) at the zip code level was associated with both 7-day (8.5% increase; 95% CI = 1.5%, 16.0%) and 30-day readmissions (5.4%; 95% CI = 2.3%, 8.5%), and to a lesser degree, hospital visits (1.5%; 95% CI: 0.0%, 3.0%) matching previous studies. Conclusions Area-level smoke exposure driven by wildfires is positively associated with hospital utilization but not proximity to prescribed fires.

Raab, Henry↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cellobionic acid utilization: from Neurospora crassa to Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Background: Economical production of fuels and chemicals from plant biomass requires the efficient use of sugars derived from the plant cell wall. Neurospora crassa, a model lignocellulosic degrading fungus, is capable of breaking down the complex structure of the plant cell wall. In addition to cellulases and hemicellulases, N. crassa secretes lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs), which cleave cellulose by generating oxidized sugars—particularly aldonic acids. However, the strategies N. crassa employs to utilize these sugars are unknown. Results: We identified an aldonic acid utilization pathway in N. crassa, comprised of an extracellular hydrolase (NCU08755), cellobionic acid transporter (CBT-1, NCU05853) and cellobionic acid phosphorylase (CAP, NCU09425). Extracellular cellobionic acid could be imported directly by CBT-1 or cleaved to gluconic acid and glucose by a β-glucosidase (NCU08755) outside the cells. Intracellular cellobionic acid was further cleaved to glucose 1-phosphate and gluconic acid by CAP. However, it remains unclear how N. crassa utilizes extracellular gluconic acid. The aldonic acid pathway was successfully implemented in Saccharomyces cerevisiae when N. crassa gluconokinase was coexpressed, resulting in cellobionic acid consumption in both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Conclusions: We successfully identified a branched aldonic acid utilization pathway in N. crassa and transferred its essential components into S. cerevisiae, a robust industrial microorganism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. 7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. 8) Considering changes in DPV’s value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. 9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Pathway To Low-Carbon Lignite Utilization; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233

Utilities continue to investigate ways to decrease their carbon footprint. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can enable existing power generation facilities to maintain operations and address carbon reduction. Subtask 2.1 – Pathway to Low-Carbon Lignite Utilization focused on several research areas in an effort to find ways to decrease the cost of capture across both precombustion and postcombustion platforms. Two postcombustion capture solvents were tested, one from CO 2 Solutions Inc. and one from ARCTECH, Inc. The CO 2 Solutions solvent had been evaluated previously, and the company had incorporated the concept of a rotating packed bed (RPB) to replace the traditional packed columns typically used. In the limited testing performed at the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), no CO 2 reduction benefit was seen from the RPB; however, if the technology could be scaled up, it may introduce some savings in capital expense and overall system footprint. Rudimentary tests were conducted with the ARCTECH solvent to evaluate if it could be utilized in a spray tower configuration contactor and capture CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x . This solvent after loading can be processed to make an additional product to filter wastewater, providing a second-tier usable product. Modeling of the RPB process for scaling to a 550-MW power system was also conducted. The reduced cost of RPB systems combined with a smaller footprint highlight the potential for reducing the cost of capturing CO 2 ; however, more extensive testing is needed to truly evaluate their potential for use at full scale. Hydrogen separation membranes from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) were evaluated through precombustion testing. These had also been previously tested and were improved by CSIRO for this test campaign. They are composed of vanadium alloy, which is less expensive than the palladium alloys that are typically used. Their performance was good, and they may be good candidates for medium-pressure gasifiers, but much more scale-up work is needed. Next-generation power cycles are currently being developed and show promise for high efficiency, and the utilization of supercritical CO 2 to drive a turbine could significantly increase cycle efficiency over traditional steam cycles. The EERC evaluated pressurized oxy-combustion technology from the standpoint of CO 2 purification. If impurities can be removed, the costs for CO 2 capture can be lowered significantly over postcombustion capture systems. Impurity removal consisted of a simple water scrubber referred to as the DeSNO x process. The process worked well, but corrosion management is crucial to its success. A model of this process was constructed. Finally, an integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) system model, developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), was modified to allow for the modeling of membrane systems in the IGCC process. This modified model was used to provide an assessment of the costs of membrane use at full scale. An economic estimation indicated a 14% reduction in cost for CO 2 separation over the SELEXOL™ process. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal sponsors for this project were the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Basin Electric Power Cooperative, and Allete, Inc. (including BNI Coal and Minnesota Power).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Next-Generation Performance-Based Regulation: Emphasizing Utility Performance to Unleash Power Sector Innovation

Performance-based regulation (PBR) enables regulators to reform hundred-year-old regulatory structures to unleash innovations within 21st century power systems. An old regulatory paradigm built to ensure safe and reliable electricity at reasonable prices from capital-intensive electricity monopolies is now adjusting to a new century of disruptive technological advances that change the way utilities make money and what value customers expect from their own electricity company. Advanced technologies are driving change in power sectors around the globe. Innovative technologies are transforming the way electricity is generated, delivered, and consumed. These emerging technology drivers include renewable generation, distributed energy resources such as distributed generation and energy storage, demand-side management measures such as demand-response, electric vehicles, and smart grid technologies and energy efficiency (EE). PBR enables regulators to recognize the value that electric utilities bring to customers by enabling these advanced technologies and integrating smart solutions into the utility grid and utility operations. These changes in the electric energy system and customer capacities means that there is an increasing interest in motivating regulated entities in other areas beyond traditional cost-of-service performance regulation. This report addresses best practices gleaned from more than two decades of PBR in practice, and analyzes how those best practices and lessons can be used to design innovative PBR programs. Readers looking for an introduction to PBR may want to focus on Chapters 1-5. Chapters 6 and 7 contain more detail for those interested in the intricate workings of PBR or particularly innovative PBR.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Value-Added Electricity Services: New Roles for Utilities and Third-Party Providers

New energy generation, storage, delivery, and end-use technologies support a broad range of value-added electricity services for retail electricity customers. Sophisticated energy management services, distributed generation coupled with storage, and electric vehicle charging are just a few examples of emerging offerings. Who should provide value-added services — utilities or third parties, or both, and under what conditions? What policy and regulatory changes may be needed to promote competition and innovation, to account for utility costs to enable these services, and to protect consumers? The report approaches the issues from three perspectives: utilities, third-party service providers, and consumers: -Jonathan Blansfield and Lisa Wood, Institute for Electric Innovation -Ryan Katofsky, Benjamin Stafford and Danny Waggoner, Advanced Energy Economy -National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities; forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by using a suite of models to explore the capacity expansion and operation of the Western Interconnection over a 15-year period across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. The system costs under a misforecast are compared against the costs under a perfect forecast, to quantify the costs of misforecasting. Using a simplified probabilistic method applied to these modeling results, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility’s forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, under our base assumptions, a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that DPV growth could range from 2% to 7.5% of total generation over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately $4 million if they could reduce the severity of misforecasting to within ±25%. Utility resource planners can compare those savings against the costs needed to achieve that level of precision, to guide their decision on whether to make an investment in tools or resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗