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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the large-scale circulation in South America

The influence of each phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the largescale circulation in South America is investigated using rainfall observations, fully-coupled, large-ensemble, historical simulations (LENS), and forced experiments using the coupled model’s atmospheric component. IOD events often occur when El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of interannual variability of precipitation in South America, is active. To distinguish from effects of ENSO, only cases during neutral ENSO conditions are analyzed in LENS and observations. During the positive IOD polarity, a perturbation in the localWalker circulation leads to increased convection over equatorial South America, resulting in wet anomalies in the Amazon basin. This signal is the opposite of what is expected during El Niño events. Tropical convection anomalies in the Indian Ocean also force an extratropical Rossby wave train that reaches subtropical South America. During positive IOD, the moisture flux from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil weakens, resulting in a drying of the area associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic Subtropical High strengthens, contributing to a drying in southeastern Brazil. During negative IOD, the induced wave train from the Indian Ocean leads to increased moisture transport to the La Plata basin, leading to wet anomalies in the region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia

A robust understanding of the sub-seasonal cold season (November–March) precipitation variability over the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) is lacking. Here, we identify dynamic and thermodynamic pathways through which natural modes of climate variability establish their teleconnections over the HMA. First, we identify evaporative sources that contribute to the cold season precipitation over the HMA and surrounding areas. The predominant moisture contribution comes from the mid-latitude regions, including the Mediterranean/Caspian Seas and Mediterranean land. Second, we establish that several tropical and extratropical forcings display a sub-seasonally fluctuating influence on precipitation distribution over the region during the cold season. Many of them varyingly interact, so their impacts cannot be explained independently or at seasonal timescales. Lastly, a single set of evaporative sources is not identifiable as the key determinant in propagating a remote teleconnection because the sources of moisture anomalies depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Abstract Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage‐related AGB losses rather than by mortality‐related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand‐level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage‐related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.

Zuleta, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Extreme Phenomena in the Stable Boundary Layer over the Amazonian Forest

We apply different methods for detection of extreme phenomena (EP) in air-turbulent time series measured in the nocturnal boundary layer above the Amazon forest. The methods used were: (a) a Morlet complex wavelet transform, which is often used in analysis of non-linear application processes. Through the use of the wavelet, it is possible to observe a phase singularity that involves a strong interaction between an extensive range of scales; (b) recurrence plot tests, which were used to identify a sudden change between different stable atmospheric states. (c) statistical analysis of early-warning signals, which verify simultaneous increases in the autocorrelation function and in the variance in the state variable; and (d) analysis of wind speed versus turbulent kinetic energy to identify different turbulent regimes in the stable boundary layer. We found it is adequate to use a threshold to classify the cases of strong turbulence regime, as a result of the occurrence of EP in the tropical atmosphere. All methods used corroborate and indicate synergy between events that culminate in what we classify as EP of the stable boundary layer above the tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2020

The response of stomatal conductance to seasonal drought in tropical forests

Stomata regulate CO2 uptake for photosynthesis and water loss through transpiration. The approaches used to represent stomatal conductance (gs) in models vary. In particular, current understanding of drivers of the variation in a key parameter in those models, the slope parameter (i.e. a measure of intrinsic plant water-use-efficiency), is still limited, particularly in the tropics. Here we collected diurnal measurements of leaf gas exchange and water potential (?leaf), and a suite of plant traits from the upper canopy of 15 tropical trees in two contrasting Panamanian forests throughout the dry season of the 2016 El Niño. The plant traits included wood density, leaf-mass-per-area (LMA), leaf carboxylation capacity (Vc,max25), leaf water content, the degree of isohydry, and predawn ?leaf. We first investigated how the choice of four commonly used leaf-level gs models with and without the inclusion of ?leaf as an additional predictor variable influence the ability to predict gs, and then explored the abiotic (i.e. month, site-month interaction) and biotic (i.e. tree-species-specific characteristics) drivers of slope parameter variation. Our results show that the inclusion of ?leaf did not improve model performance and that the models that represent the response of gs to vapor pressure deficit performed better than corresponding models that respond to relative humidity. Within each gs model, we found large variation in the slope parameter, and this variation was attributable to the biotic driver, rather than abiotic drivers. We further investigated potential relationships between the slope parameter and the six available plant traits mentioned above, and found that only one trait, LMA, had a significant correlation with the slope parameter (R2=0.66, n=15), highlighting a potential path towards improved model parameterization. This study advances understanding of gs dynamics over seasonal drought, and identifies a practical, trait-based approach to improve modeling of carbon and water exchange in tropical forests.

carbon and water exchange, stomatal conductance mo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Furthermore, the radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r ~ [0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative analysis of nutrient concentrations in generalist and specialist tree species and soils, Manaus, Brazil

This dataset was collected near Manaus, Brazil, at ZF-2 site, inside the North-South transect plots from 20221011 to 20221020. Measurements were made on specialists and generalist tree species along topographic gradient (in upland high-clay content soils of plateaus and high sandy content and partially flooded soils of valleys). We selected nine species (with four replicates each, totaling 35 individuals) occurring in different topographic positions: three plateau specialists, three valley specialists, and three generalists, where leaf and trunk samples were collected from each individual, and soil samples for carbon and nutrient analysis and quantification. Three soil pits were opened around each sample tree, about one meter apart (total of 105 soil pits each 60-cm deep), where soil samples were collected at four depths: 0-5, 5-10, 10-30 and 30-50 cm. In each of the three pits around each tree, one single sample was taken at each depth and combined to obtain a composite sample per depth per individual tree (35 trees × 4 depths = 140 soil samples). The files “Plant_Nutrient_Concentrations_NS_Transect_Manaus.csv” and “Soil_Nutrient_Concentrations_NS_Transect_Manaus.csv” contain the nutrient concentration data from plant and soil material, respectively. Additionally, the file “Sample_Info.csv” contains details about each variable including units and data type. The file “Species_Info.csv” includes information about each sampled individual, such as species, family, diameter at the breast height (DBH), and more. The dataset is ready to be used in any programming language like python or R. This dataset was originally published on the NGEE Tropics Archive and is being mirrored on ESS-DIVE for long-term archival Acknowledgement: Funding for NGEE-Tropics data resources was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observations and Modeling of Ocean Circulation in the Seychelles Plateau Region

The ocean circulation around and over the Seychelles Plateau is characterized using 35 months of temperature and velocity measurements along with a numerical model. The results here provide the first documented description of the ocean circulation atop the Seychelles Plateau. The Seychelles Plateau is an unusually broad (~200 km), shallow (~50 m) plateau, dropping off steeply to the abyss. It is situated in a dynamic location (3.5-5.5S, 54-57E) in the south-western tropical Indian Ocean where northwesterly winds are present during austral summer and become southeasterly in austral winter, following the reversal of the western Indian Ocean monsoon winds. Measurements around the Inner Islands, on the Seychelles Plateau, have been carried out since 2015. Velocity measurements show that most of the depth-averaged current variance on the Seychelles Plateau arises from near-inertial oscillations and lower-frequency variability. Lower-frequency variability encompasses seasonal and intraseasonal variability, the latter of which includes the effects of mixed Rossby-gravity waves and mesoscale eddies. Here, a global 0.1-degree numerical ocean simulation is used in conjunction with these observations to describe the regional circulation around the Seychelles Plateau. Atop the Seychelles Plateau, circulation is dominated by ageostrophic processes consistent with Ekman dynamics, while around the Seychelles Plateau, both geostrophic and ageostrophic processes are important and vary seasonally. Stratification responds to the sea surface height semi-annual signal which is due to Ekman pumping-driven upwelling (related to the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge) and the arrival of an annual downwelling Rossby wave.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree damage and mortality measurements across seven ForestGEO plots in the tropics between Oct 2016 and Mar 2023

Annual records (raw data) on tree survival and structural completeness of 36,524 trees (2,467 species) collected across 29 censuses in seven tropical forests distributed across the Neotropics (Amacayacu, Colombia; Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panamá; Yasuní, Ecuador) and Asia (Fushan, Taiwan; Huai Kha Khaeng (HKK), Thailand; Khao Chong (KC), Thailand; Pasoh, Malaysia). This dataset was used to compare aboveground biomass loss via damage to living trees relative to total AGB loss (mortality + damage). Variable definitions: site: name of the ForestGEO plot stemID.ams: Unique ID for the stem in the annual mortality surveys (ams) treeID.ams: Unique ID for the tree in the ams date.full.census: date of the previous full census of the plot, format: YYYY-MM-DD dbh.full.census: diameter at the breast height (dbh in mm) measured during the previous full census of the plot home: height of measurement of dbh (in m) meanWD: species-level wood density (g cm-3) date.ams: date of the ams, format: YYYY-MM-DD status: survival status of the tree (A: alive; D: dead; NF: not found; "?": unknown) H_considering_damage: living length of the main axis in meters; provides an estimate of the amount of remaining living tissues along the main axis of the stem (e.g., the height of breakage or the height discounting wood decay) b: the remaining proportion of branch volume within the living length (b∈[0,1]). weights.ind: frequency of the [size class x species] bins within the forest plot relative to their frequency in the sample. Necessary to extrapolate estimates to the whole plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on tropical cyclone simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data. These CSV files are derived from the NetCDF files in the c0 dataset. Unlike the original format, where geographic coordinates were stored in a separate file, each CSV now embeds the corresponding latitude and longitude values alongside the measured or simulated variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in modelled reservoir greenhouse gas emissions: comparison of select US hydropower reservoirs against global estimates

Abstract Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from reservoirs have most often been evaluated on a global extent through areal scaling or linear-regression models. These models typically rely on a limited number of characteristics such as age, size, and average temperature to estimate per reservoir or areal flux. Such approaches may not be sufficient for describing conditions at all types of reservoirs. Emissions from hydropower reservoirs have received increasing attention as industry and policy makers seek to better understand the role of hydropower in sustainable energy solutions. In the United States (US), hydropower reservoirs span a wide range of climate regions and have diverse design and operational characteristics compared to those most heavily represented in model literature (i.e., large, tropical reservoirs). It is not clear whether estimates based on measurements and modeling of other subsets of reservoirs describe the diverse types of hydropower reservoirs in the US. We applied the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (G‐res) emissions model to 28 hydropower reservoirs located in a variety of ecological, hydrological, and climate settings that represent the range of sizes and types of facilities within the US hydropower fleet. The dominant pathways for resulting GHG emissions estimates in the case-study reservoirs were diffusion of carbon dioxide, followed by methane ebullition. Among these case-study reservoirs, total post-impoundment areal flux of carbon ranges from 84 to 767 mgCm −2 d −1 , which is less variable than what has been reported through measurements at other US and global reservoirs. The net GHG reservoir footprint was less variable and towards the lower end of the range observed from modeling larger global reservoirs, with a range of 138 to 1,052 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 , while the global study reported a range of 115 to 145,472 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 . High variation in emissions normalized with respect to area and generation highlights the need to be cautious when using area or generation in predicting or communicating emissions footprints for reservoirs relative to those of other energy sources, especially given that many of the hydropower reservoirs in the US serve multiple purposes beyond power generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗