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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Manual Crew Override of Vehicle Landings Following G-Transitions

BACKGROUND Manual control during exploration spaceflight consists of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. This crew override capability is critical to enable overall mission success during landing contingencies. However, the introduction of manual override capabilities must be implemented to enable crews to mitigate risks introduced by human error. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. While training and landing aids enable successful landing through disorientation, these adaptive changes may increase cognitive demand that needs to be accounted for in the manual control strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition to develop appropriate countermeasures. METHODS In this study, we will examine operational piloting tasks following International Space Station (ISS) missions in a simulated lunar landing using a six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) motion base. The motion-based simulation will be implemented in our laboratory at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) and will be available within hours following the return from commercial crew landings. The primary goals of this study are (1) to understand the impact of spaceflight on crew ability to perform manual crew override tasks, (2) to examine how adaptive changes in vestibular and cognitive function relate to changes in manual crew override proficiency, and (3) compare performance during late “just-in-time” on-board training with early post-flight crew performance. The impact of spaceflight on piloting capability will be assessed from pre- versus post-flight changes in crewmembers assigned to either short duration (< 30 day) or long duration (~6- month) missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Individual differences in post-flight vestibular and cognitive changes include motion sickness reports, measures of tilt motion perception accuracy and precision, and dual-task tracking. During the 6DOF lunar simulation, the crew will manually takeover attitude and rate-of-descent to the nominal or re-designated landing aim point during the approach phase. The outcome measures for the lunar crew override tasks will be the percent time maintaining actual vehicle states, e.g., attitude and rate-of-descent, within recommended guidance during the landing approach, number and maximum deviation outside limits, and root mean square error (RMSE). Given that “just-in-time” (JIT) training is an operational expectation for the Human Landing System (HLS) program, all participants will perform late inflight JIT training for each manual crew override task in which they will participate. Crew proficiency will be captured inflight during JIT training that will be implemented on a laptop with hand controllers to allow the crewmember to practice the landing task procedures like the approach implemented for JIT training with Shuttle landing and ISS telerobotic tasks. COUNTERMEASURE UPDATES The lunar lander simulation has been implemented onto a two-laptop display system where subjects select from alternative landing points, based upon avoiding hazards that the on-board system identifies during the landing. The subject makes inputs using a rotational hand controller (i.e., joystick) and a translational hand controller, which are processed by simulated vehicle dynamics to update the vehicle attitude and rate of descent. Subjects will utilize a combination of flight, situation, and status displays to monitor the state of the simulated vehicle. The simulation exports tilt and translation movements to a 6DOF motion base synced to visual movements and provides representative vestibular cues to the subject while performing the task inside an enclosed cabin featuring a simulated lunar out-the-window view and a heads-down lander cockpit view. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew override capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew override performance will help better characterize the manual control risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. The inclusion of “just-in-time” on-board training will ensure we are characterizing changes in override proficiency with this expected countermeasure in place. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors acknowledge contributions from Draper, HLS Joint Test Panel, Crew HLS Interfaces for Piloting Working Group, and Dynamic Skills Trainer (DST) Lab toward the development of the lunar landing simulation. This project is funded by the Human Health Countermeasures Element.

Austin M Bollinger↗

NASA NTRS2009

Infusing Training into the Documentation and Culture of Ares I Upper Stage Design and Manufacturing

In roughly two years time, Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Mission Operations Laboratory (MOL) has incubated a personnel training and certification program for about 1000 learners and multiple phases of the Ares I Upper Stage (US) project. Previous MOL-developed training programs focused on about 100 learners with a focus on operations, and had enough full-time training staff to develop courseware and provide training administration. This paper discusses 1) how creation of a broad, structured training program unfolded as feedback from more narrowly defined tasks, 2) how training philosophy, development methods, and administration are being simplified and tailored so that many Upper Stage organizations can grow their own training yet maintain consistency, accountability, and traceability across the project, and 3) possibilities for interfacing with the production contractor's training system and staff.

Scott, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Knowledge-based system to assess air crew training requirements

A description is given of a prototype training assessment tool developed as part of a computer-based cockpit design and analysis workstation that estimates the training resources and time imposed by the anticipated mission and cockpit design. Embedding instructional system and training analysis domain knowledge in a production system environment, the tool allows crew station designers to readily determine the training ramifications of their choices for cockpit equipment, mission tasks, and operator qualifications. Initial results have been validated by comparison to an existing training program, demonstrating the tool's utility as a conceptual design aid and illuminating areas for future development.

Smith, Barry R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

IMS Rapid Response 2024 Summary Report: A Machine Learning Potential for the Periodic Table

Stockpile stewardship and nuclear waste remediation are inherently chemically complex, involving practically the full diversity of the periodic table, but existing methods are too expensive or not functional for a large diversity of atom types. Overall, the field of machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) has advanced dramatically in 2024 with large high-accuracy datasets existing for bulk, surface, and organic chemical systems and new online leaderboards for diverse chemistry. To participate in, and bring LANL interests into this ecosystem, here, we have built upon existing technologies created by LANL to create a framework capable of creating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for over 90 atom types. Our results have created a massively diverse coordination complex training dataset more than 3 times the size of existing datasets, parallelized MLIP training over multiple GPUs, enabling the training of an MLIP spanning the periodic table at 20 times the speed of prior training on 32 GPUs. These advances are substantial towards creation on foundational MLIPs for LANL-specific application areas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1980

Astronaut training manual

Scientific information from previous space flights, space medicine, exercise physiology, and sports medicine was used to prepare a physical fitness manual suitable for use by members of the NASA astronaut population. A variety of scientifically valid exercise programs and activities suitable for the development of physical fitness are provided. Programs, activities, and supportive scientific data are presented in a concise, easy to read format so as to permit the user to select his or her mode of training with confidence and devote time previously spent experimenting with training routines to preparation for space flight. The programs and activities included were tested and shown to be effective and enjoyable.

Coleman, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Preflight and In-Flight Exercise Conditions for Astronauts on the International Space Station

The physiological demands of spaceflight require astronauts to have certain physical abilities. They must be able to perform routine and off-nominal physical work during flight and upon re-entry into a gravity environment to ensure mission success, such as an Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) or emergency egress. To prepare the astronauts for their mission, a Wyle Astronaut Strength Conditioning and Rehabilitation specialist (ASCR) works individually with the astronauts to prescribe preflight strength and conditioning programs and in-flight exercise, utilizing Countermeasure Systems (CMS) exercise hardware. PURPOSE: To describe the preflight and in-flight exercise programs for ISS crewmembers. METHODS: Approximately 2 years before a scheduled launch, an ASCR is assigned to each astronaut and physical training (PT) is routinely scheduled. Preflight PT of astronauts consists of carrying out strength, aerobic and general conditioning, employing the principles of periodization. Exercise programs are prescribed to the astronauts to account for their individual fitness levels, planned mission-specific tasks, areas of concern, and travel schedules. Additionally, astronauts receive instruction on how to operate CMS exercise hardware and receive training for microgravity-specific conditions. For example, astronauts are scheduled training sessions for the International Space Station (ISS) treadmill (TVIS) and cycle ergometer (CEVIS), as well as the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED). In-flight programs are designed to maintain or even improve the astronauts pre-flight levels of fitness, bone health, muscle strength, power and aerobic capacity. In-flight countermeasure sessions are scheduled in 2.5 h blocks, six days a week, which includes 1.5 h for resistive training and 1 h for aerobic exercise. CONCLUSIONS: Crewmembers reported the need for more scheduled time for preflight training. During flight, crewmembers have indicated that the in-flight exercise is sufficient, but would like more reliable and capable hardware.

Guilliams, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Neuromorphic learning of continuous-valued mappings from noise-corrupted data. Application to real-time adaptive control

The ability of feed-forward neural network architectures to learn continuous valued mappings in the presence of noise was demonstrated in relation to parameter identification and real-time adaptive control applications. An error function was introduced to help optimize parameter values such as number of training iterations, observation time, sampling rate, and scaling of the control signal. The learning performance depended essentially on the degree of embodiment of the control law in the training data set and on the degree of uniformity of the probability distribution function of the data that are presented to the net during sequence. When a control law was corrupted by noise, the fluctuations of the training data biased the probability distribution function of the training data sequence. Only if the noise contamination is minimized and the degree of embodiment of the control law is maximized, can a neural net develop a good representation of the mapping and be used as a neurocontroller. A multilayer net was trained with back-error-propagation to control a cart-pole system for linear and nonlinear control laws in the presence of data processing noise and measurement noise. The neurocontroller exhibited noise-filtering properties and was found to operate more smoothly than the teacher in the presence of measurement noise.

Troudet, Terry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adiabatic quantum support vector machines

Adiabatic quantum computers can solve difficult optimization problems (e.g., the quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem), and they seem well suited to train machine learning models. In this paper, we describe an adiabatic quantum approach for training support vector machines. We show that the time complexity of our quantum approach is an order of magnitude better than the classical approach. Next, we compare the test accuracy of our quantum approach against a classical approach that uses the Scikit-learn library in Python across five benchmark datasets (Iris, Wisconsin Breast Cancer (WBC), Wine, Digits, and Lambeq). We show that our quantum approach obtains accuracies on par with the classical approach. Finally, we perform a scalability study in which we compute the total training times of the quantum approach and the classical approach with an increasing number of features and an increasing number of data points in the training dataset. In conclusion, our scalability results show that the quantum approach obtains a 3.5–4.5x speedup over the classical approach on datasets with many (millions of) features.

Computational Complexity↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1984

A new class of solar burst with MM-wave emission but only at the highest frequency (90 GHz)

High sensitivity and high time resolution solar observations at 90 GHz (lambda = 3.3 mm) have identified a unique impulsive burst on May 21, 1984 with emission that was more intense at this frequency than at lower frequencies. The first major time structure of the burst was over 10 times more intense at 90 GHz than at 30 GHz, 7 GHz, or 2.8 GHz.Only 6 seconds later, the 30 GHz impulsive structures started to be observed but still with lower intensity than at 90 GHz. Hard X-ray time structures at energies above 25 keV were almost identical to the 90 GHZ structures (to better than one second). All 90 GHz major time structures consisted of trains of multiple subsecond pulses with rise times as short as 0.03 sec and amplitudes large compared to the mean flux. When detectable, the 30 GHz subsecond pulses had smaller relative amplitude and were in phase with the corresponding 90 GHz pulses.

Kaufmann, P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Solar burst with millimetre-wave emission at high frequency only

The first high sensitivity and high time-resolution observations of a solar burst taken simultaneously at 90 GHz and at 30 GHz are presented. These identify a unique impulsive burst on May 21, 1984 with fast pulsed emission that was considerably more intense at 90 GHz than at lower frequencies. Hard X-ray time structures at energies above 25 keV were almost identical to the 90 GHz structures to better than 1 s. The structure of the onset of the major 90 GHz burst coincided with the hard X-ray structure to within 128 ms. All 90 GHz major time structures consisted of trains of multiple subsecond pulses with rise times as short as 0.03 s and amplitudes that were large compared with the mean flux. When detectable, the 30 GHz subsecond pulses had smaller relative amplitude and were in phase with the corresponding 90 GHz pulses.

Kaufmann, P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing Accuracy-Speedup Tradeoff in Machine Learning Surrogates for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The performance promise of machine learning surrogates of molecular dynamics simulations of soft materials is significant but generally comes at the cost of acquiring large training datasets to learn the complex relationships between input soft material attributes and output properties. Under the constraint of limited high-performance computing resources, optimizing the size of the training datasets becomes paramount. Using an artificial neural network based surrogate for molecular dynamics simulations of confined electrolytes, we explore the tradeoff between surrogate accuracy and computational gains. Accuracy is assessed by computing the root-mean-square errors between the surrogate predictions and the ground truth results obtained via molecular dynamics simulations. The computational performance is judged by evaluating the speedup which incorporates the training dataset creation time. Improvement in accuracy occurs with a loss of speedup, which scales as the inverse of the training dataset size. Furthermore, the link between surrogate generalizability and the accuracy-speedup tradeoff is assessed by examining the errors incurred in surrogate predictions on unseen, interpolated input variables and developing a net speedup metric to capture the associated gains.

Anions↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

NASA NTRS1992

Carotid-cardiac baroreflex response and LBNP tolerance following resistance training

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of lower body resistance training on cardiovascular control mechanisms and blood pressure maintenance during an orthostatic challenge. Lower body negative pressure (LBNP) tolerance, carotid-cardiac baroreflex function (using neck chamber pressure), and calf compliance were measured in eight healthy males before and after 19 wk of knee extension and leg press training. Resistance training sessions consisted of four or five sets of 6-12 repetitions of each exercise, performed two times per week. Training increased strength 25 +/- 3 (SE) percent (P = 0.0003) and 31 +/- 6 percent (P = 0.0004), respectively, for the leg press and knee extension exercises. Average fiber size in biopsy samples of m. vastus lateralis increased 21 +/- 5 percent (P = 0.0014). Resistance training had no significant effect on LBNP tolerance. However, calf compliance decreased in five of the seven subjects measured, with the group average changing from 4.4 +/- 0.6 ml.mm Hg-1 to 3.9 +/- 0.3 ml.mm Hg-1 (P = 0.3826). The stimulus-response relationship of the carotid-cardiac baroreflex response shifted to the left on the carotid pressure axis as indicated by a reduction of 6 mm Hg in baseline systolic blood pressure (P = 0.0471). In addition, maximum slope increased from 5.4 +/- 1.3 ms.mm Hg-1 before training to 6.6 +/- 1.6 ms.mm Hg-1 after training (P = 0.0141). Our results suggest the possibility that high resistance, lower extremity exercise training can cause a chronic increase in sensitivity and resetting of the carotid-cardiac baroreflex.

Tatro, D. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Isolator Shock Train Response to Dual-Mode Scramjet Throttling-Like Forcing

Typical dual-mode scramjet designs employ an isolator component situated between the inlet and combustor. The isolator fluidically buffers the inlet from the combustor via the formation of a shock train, an interconnected series of shock-boundary layer interactions. The isolator is required during ramjet-engine operation and at the lower edges of the scramjet operational envelope. In an operational engine, transient behavior imposes fluidic dynamics due to attitude adjustments, combustor throttling, aberrant resonances within the combustor, etc. To accommodate these transients, the shock train adjusts on both temporal and spatial scales. Sufficiently large downstream pressure increases in the combustor play a critical role during unstart, whereby strong compression waves propagate upstream in the isolator to ultimately force the shock train out the inlet, if it cannot stabilize to the pressure increase. This critically reduces the engine mass flow rate, potentially causing a catastrophic reduction in thrust and loss of the vehicle. A nearly instantaneous unstart can, in principle, be predicted by a ratio of the normal shock pressure jump in an inviscid isolator. However, lower-magnitude perturbations, below this bound, also induce unstarts. Understanding the transient behavior inherent in unsteady isolator operation is critical to reducing safety margin in isolator length and refining engine control algorithms to improve engine performance. The Isolator Dynamics Research Lab (IDRL) is a cold-flow, direct-connect isolator facility ideal for assessing the fundamental fluid dynamics of shock trains. The internal flow of a scramjet isolator is modeled using a 2D, symmetric Mach 2.5 nozzle followed by a 695 mm long, 25.4x50.8 mm rectangular isolator test section. A blockage cone on a high-speed ball screw actuator downstream of the isolator is pulsed to simulate the throttling behavior in an operational combustor. Wall flush high-speed static pressure transducers detect the streamwise shock train within the isolator. Time delays between the onset of the throttling and the response motion of the shock train are analyzed to assess the controlling scales and parameters. From this analysis, the response time of the isolator shock train system is found to depend primarily on the isolator back pressure time-rate-of-change but quickly saturates to a maximum propagation speed along the isolator. These results inform dual-mode scramjet engine designers of the critical parameters and limits of an unstart resistant engine.

scramjet↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II - Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

Erika Munshi↗