The Ecology Underground coalition: building a collaborative future of belowground ecology and ecologists
Abstract not provided.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Temporal scales”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS): A Methodology to Collect Radar Observations of Convective Cell Life Cycle
Abstract Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS), a smart sensing framework, was adapted to increase the likelihood of observing the vertical structure (with little to no gaps), spatial variability (at subkilometer scale), and temporal evolution (at ∼2-min resolution) of convective cells. This adaptation of MAAS guided two mechanically scanning C-band radars (CSAPR2 and CHIVO) by automatically analyzing the latest NEXRAD data to identify, characterize, track, and nowcast the location of all convective cells forming in the Houston domain. MAAS used either a list of predetermined rules or real-time user input to select a convective cell to be tracked and sampled by the C-band radars. The CSAPR2 tracking radar was first tasked to collect three sector plan position indicator (PPI) scans toward the selected cell. Edge computer processing of the PPI scans was used to identify additional targets within the selected cell. In less than 2 min, both the CSAPR2 and CHIVO radars were able to collect bundles of three to six range–height indicator (RHI) scans toward different targets of interest within the selected cell. Bundles were successively collected along the path of cell advection for as long as the cell met a predetermined set of criteria. Between 1 June and 30 September 2022 over 315 000 vertical cross-section observations were collected by the C-band radars through ∼1300 unique isolated convective cells, most of which were observed for over 15 min of their life cycle. To the best of our knowledge, this dataset, collected primarily through automatic means, constitutes the largest dataset of its kind.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach
Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.
3D reconstruction model↗
Code for the manuscript "Mori-Zwanzig Modal Decomposition"
We would like to create an open source repository in LANL's github on code written in Julia, in which we implement and extend the data-driven Mori-Zwanzig method for extracting large-scale spatio-temporal structures from data, which we call MZMD. This method is an extension of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) in which Mori-Zwanzig memory kernels are included into the associated companion matrix. In the code we would like to release, we apply MZMD to a flow over a cylinder with Reynolds number 100 rather than the much larger data set used in the associated manuscript. DMD is used extensively in the fluid dynamics community mainly for extracting large scale spatio-temporal structures (patters) from flow data. This is useful for understanding the key mechanisms that generate certain complex dynamical process relevant in engineering design. In MZMD, we improve upon DMD by adding the Mori-Zwanzig memory kernels, and show this improvement is especially important in strongly nonlinear regions of the flow.
Woodward, Michael↗
Large-Scale Image Analysis for Investigating Spatio-Temporal Changes in Nuclear DNA Damage Caused by Nitrogen Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Jets
The effective clinical application of atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) treatments requires a well-founded methodology that can describe the interactions between the plasma jet and a treated sample and the temporal and spatial changes that result from the treatment. In this study, we developed a large-scale image analysis method to identify the cell-cycle stage and quantify damage to nuclear DNA in single cells. The method was then tested and used to examine spatio-temporal distributions of nuclear DNA damage in two cell lines from the same anatomic location, namely the oral cavity, after treatment with a nitrogen APPJ. One cell line was malignant, and the other, nonmalignant. The results showed that DNA damage in cancer cells was maximized at the plasma jet treatment region, where the APPJ directly contacted the sample, and declined radially outward. As incubation continued, DNA damage in cancer cells decreased slightly over the first 4 h before rapidly decreasing by approximately 60% at 8 h post-treatment. In nonmalignant cells, no damage was observed within 1 h after treatment, but damage was detected 2 h after treatment. Notably, the damage was 5-fold less than that detected in irradiated cancer cells. Moreover, examining damage with respect to the cell cycle showed that S phase cells were more susceptible to DNA damage than either G1 or G2 phase cells. The proposed methodology for large-scale image analysis is not limited to APPJ post-treatment applications and can be utilized to evaluate biological samples affected by any type of radiation, and, more so, the cell-cycle classification can be used on any cell type with any nuclear DNA staining.
cellular imaging↗
The Effect of Air Separations on Fast Pyrolysis Products for Forest Residue Feedstocks
This study investigates the intricate relationship between biomass preprocessing and pyrolysis product yields, employing the air classification technique for the treatment of loblolly pine residues with varying moisture content. A comprehensive exploration of the physicochemical properties of air-classified loblolly pine informs a sophisticated pyrolysis simulation model. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of biomass pyrolysis, operating across diverse temporal and spatial scales, a pyrolysis kinetics-based CFD–DEM simulation method is employed to predict product yields. Results showed that the elevated moisture content amplifies particle adhesiveness, necessitating augmented air velocities for effective separation, thereby influencing the efficiency of the separation process. While carbon and hydrogen contents exhibit relative stability across diverse moisture contents and blower frequencies, the oxygen content undergoes noticeable changes. For example, the oxygen contents were measured as 29.2 and 38.6 wt% in the light fraction of 30% moisture content sample at blower frequencies of 10 and 20 Hz, respectively. An intriguing finding emerges from pyrolysis simulation, indicating that a lower blower frequency in air classification moderately enhances bio-oil yield and significantly improves its quality, particularly in terms of water content. For instance, the water content in the bio-oil was about 1.5% and 10% in the heavy and light fractions, respectively from 10% moisture sample under 15 Hz blower frequency. In summary, a detailed understanding and strategic manipulation of critical material attributes in biomass through efficient fractionation techniques are imperative for advancing fast pyrolysis as a sustainable avenue for renewable energy and chemical production.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
AI Scaling Laws for Extremes (AISLE)
Focal Area(s) Using artificial intelligence to understand the physics of hydrologic events across temporal and spatial scales, to assess their representation in climate models, and to predict their response to climate warming. This covers both the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying Seasonal and Diurnal Cycles of Solar‐Induced Fluorescence With a Novel Hyperspectral Imager
Abstract Solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) is a proxy of ecosystem photosynthesis that often scales linearly with gross primary productivity (GPP) at the canopy scale. However, the mechanistic relationship between GPP and SIF is still uncertain, especially at smaller temporal and spatial scales. We deployed a ultra‐hyperspectral imager over two grassland sites in California throughout a soil moisture dry down. The imager has high spatial resolution that limits mixed pixels, enabling differentiation between plants and leaves within one scene. We find that imager SIF correlates well with diurnal changes in leaf‐level physiology and gross primary productivity under well‐watered conditions. These relationships deteriorate throughout the dry down event. Our results demonstrate an advancement in SIF imaging with new possibilities in remotely sensing plant canopies from the leaf to the ecosystem. These data can be used to resolve outstanding questions regarding SIF's meaning and usefulness in terrestrial ecosystem monitoring.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
The MOSAiC Distributed Network: Observing the coupled Arctic system with multidisciplinary, coordinated platforms
Central Arctic properties and processes are important to the regional and global coupled climate system. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Distributed Network (DN) of autonomous ice-tethered systems aimed to bridge gaps in our understanding of temporal and spatial scales, in particular with respect to the resolution of Earth system models. By characterizing variability around local measurements made at a Central Observatory, the DN covers both the coupled system interactions involving the ocean-ice-atmosphere interfaces as well as three-dimensional processes in the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. The more than 200 autonomous instruments (“buoys”) were of varying complexity and set up at different sites mostly within 50 km of the Central Observatory. During an exemplary midwinter month, the DN observations captured the spatial variability of atmospheric processes on sub-monthly time scales, but less so for monthly means. They show significant variability in snow depth and ice thickness, and provide a temporally and spatially resolved characterization of ice motion and deformation, showing coherency at the DN scale but less at smaller spatial scales. Ocean data show the background gradient across the DN as well as spatially dependent time variability due to local mixed layer sub-mesoscale and mesoscale processes, influenced by a variable ice cover. The second case (May–June 2020) illustrates the utility of the DN during the absence of manually obtained data by providing continuity of physical and biological observations during this key transitional period. We show examples of synergies between the extensive MOSAiC remote sensing observations and numerical modeling, such as estimating the skill of ice drift forecasts and evaluating coupled system modeling. The MOSAiC DN has been proven to enable analysis of local to mesoscale processes in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system and has the potential to improve model parameterizations of important, unresolved processes in the future.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Omics-to-Reactive-Transport (ORT): A workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes
Motivation: Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As `omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results: We propose a workflow (`Omics to Reactive Transport – ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBASE and PFLOTRAN. Live, interactive models, which incorporate the results from this narrative into a PFLOTRAN simulation, are available (without login) at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/.
Rubinstein, Rebecca L↗
ORT: a workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes
Abstract Motivation Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As ‘omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results We propose a workflow (‘Omics to Reactive Transport—ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBase and PFLOTRAN. Availability and implementation Interactive models available at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/. Microbiological data available at NCBI via BioProject ID PRJNA576070. ORT Python code available at https://github.com/subsurfaceinsights/ort-kbase-to-pflotran. KBase narrative available at https://narrative.kbase.us/narrative/71260 or static narrative (no login required) at https://kbase.us/n/71260/258. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning
Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.
Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗
Pseudospectral Landau-Lifshitz description of magnetization dynamics
Magnetic materials host a wealth of nonlinear dynamics, textures, and topological defects. This is possible due to the competition between strong nonlinearity and dispersion, which act at the atomic scale, as well as long-range interactions. However, these features are difficult to study analytically and numerically because of the vastly different temporal and spatial scales involved. Here, in this work, we present a pseudospectral approach for the Landau-Lifshitz equation that invokes energy and momentum conservation embodied in the magnon dispersion relation to accurately describe both atomic and continuum limits. Furthermore, this approach enables analytical study at every scale. We show the applicability of this model in both the continuum and atomic limit by investigating modulational instability and ultrafast evolution of magnetization due to transient grating, respectively, in a one-dimensional ferromagnetic chain with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. This model provides the possibility of grid-independent multiscale numerical approaches that will enable the description of singularities within a single framework.
1-dimensional spin chains↗
Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Variability of California’s Coastal Upwelling Using a Satellite-Derived CUTI Index
Ocean upwelling off California is a wind-driven coastal process with complex interactions between spatial wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Large-scale spatial and temporal upwelling characterizations are traditionally based on numerical models, while quantifying upwelling with direct observations is not straightforward. To complement model-based upwelling characterizations, here we use satellite estimates of winds, sea surface temperatures, and ocean currents along the California coast to calculate the coastal upwelling transport index (CUTI), originally calculated from a numerical ocean model. The CUTI framework accounts for both Ekman and geostrophic offshore-directed ocean transport, the latter of which is often neglected in satellite-based upwelling assessments. The approach yields the CUTI over a 30-yr period at a daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution to analyze upwelling patterns, with focus on potential Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas. Morro Bay (CUTI median of 0.63 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits stronger, more consistent upwelling throughout the year, whereas Humboldt (CUTI median of 0.45 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle with strongest upwelling in the summer and occasional downwelling in winter. The cluster analysis of 1993–2022 satellite maps of CUTI identifies four characteristic spatial upwelling patterns along the coast, corresponding to distinct spatial distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies, Ekman transport, and geostrophic ocean water transport. This dataset provides an observation-based foundation for characterizing natural coastal upwelling off the California coast, showing good agreement with the original model CUTI while being based on satellite data and offering increased spatial resolution.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Wall modes and the transition to bulk convection in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection
We investigate states of rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection in a cylindrical cell over a range of Rayleigh numbers 3 × 10 5 ≤ Ra ≤ 5 × 10 9 and Ekman numbers 10 − 6 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 − 4 for Prandtl number Pr = 0.8 and aspect ratios 1 / 5 ≤ Γ ≤ 5 using direct numerical simulations. We characterize, for perfectly insulating sidewall boundary conditions, the first transition to convection via wall mode instability and the nonlinear growth and instability of the resulting wall mode states, including a secondary transition to time dependence. We show how the radial structure of the vertical velocity u z and the temperature T is captured well by the linear eigenfunctions of the wall mode instability where the radial width of u z is δ u z ∼ Ek 1 / 3 r / H whereas δ T ∼ e − k r ( k is the wave number of a laterally infinite wall mode state). The disparity in spatial scales for Ek = 10 − 6 means that the heat transport is dominated by the radial structure of u z since T varies slowly over the radial scale δ u z . We further describe how the transition to a state of bulk convection is influenced by the presence of the wall mode states. We use temporal and spatial scales as measures of the local state of convection and the Nusselt number Nu as representative of global transport. Our results elucidate the evolution of the wall state of rotating convection and confirm that wall modes are strongly linked with the boundary zonal flow being the robust remnant of nonlinear wall mode states. We also show how the heat transport ( Nu ) contributions of wall modes and bulk modes are related and discuss approaches to disentangling their relative contributions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DyG-DPCD: A Distributed Parallel Community Detection Algorithm for Large-Scale Dynamic Graphs
Dynamic (Temporal) graphs capture the valuable evolution of real-world systems, from the continuously evolving patterns of social interactions and genetic pathways to the dynamic fluctuations of economic forces. Detecting communities for such evolving networks poses unique challenges. Detecting and analyzing the evolution of communities within dynamic graphs unlocks valuable insights into the underlying structural and temporal patterns of real-world systems. However, the sheer volume of modern graph data and the inherent complexity of the temporal dimension pose significant challenges to scalable community detection algorithms. Addressing this gap, our work explores the limited landscape of scalable distributed-memory parallel methods specifically designed for dynamic network community detection. We propose a novel parallel algorithm, DyG-DPCD (Dynamic Graph Distributed Parallel Community Detection), to detect communities in dynamic networks using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) framework. We present a vertex-centric approach, allowing us to detect communities through local optimization. Furthermore, we enhance our baseline algorithm by incorporating three heuristics, which improve the algorithm’s performance significantly while maintaining the quality of the solutions. We demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm by experimenting on several real-world large-scale networks with hundreds of millions of edges spanning diverse domains. Notably, DyG-DPCD achieves speedups between 25× and 30× for large networks that we experimented on using NERSC compute nodes. In conclusion, our algorithm outperforms the STINGER parallel re-agglomeration algorithm by 30×.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging
Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America
Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.
Climate change↗