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At least 289 records · Page 16

An adaptable technique for comparative image assessment: Application to crosswell electromagnetic survey design for fluid monitoring

Reservoir integrity stewardship accompanying carbon capture and sequestration considers fluid extraction and reinjection as a risk-mitigating method against overpressuring that could lead to caprock damage and ensuing [Formula: see text] leakage. Crosswell electromagnetics offers a technically viable monitoring method with the spatial volume coverage necessary for reservoir-encompassing pressure management. However, a certain logistic dilemma for deep gas sequestration into saline and thus electrically conductive aquifers is that crosswell magnetic-field measurements underperform in the imaging of more resistive plume bodies, further exacerbated when vertical arrays intersect, as opposed to surround, plumes. Furthermore, comparative synthetic-data plume imaging of such scenarios rates the information content of magnetic-field versus electric-field 3D crosswell layouts for reservoir and infrastructure conditions of a representative pilot site in a coastal area in Florida. The image quality of the resulting plume replications can be ranked numerically through a newly proposed semblance qualifier, appraising the model goodness of fit to a given reference. In contrast to common least-squares measures for goodness of fit, the semblance formulation uses classifying logistic function types, thus enabling a better distinction of predefined anomaly features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-precision inversion of dynamic radiography using hydrodynamic features

While radiography is routinely used to probe complex, evolving density fields in research areas ranging from materials science to shock physics to inertial confinement fusion and other national security applications, complications resulting from noise, scatter, complex beam dynamics, etc. prevent current methods of reconstructing density from being accurate enough to identify the underlying physics with sufficient confidence. In this work, we show that using only features that are robustly identifiable in radiographs and combining them with the underlying hydrodynamic equations of motion using a machine learning approach of a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) provides a new and effective approach to determine density fields from a dynamic sequence of radiographs. In particular, we demonstrate the ability of this method to outperform a traditional, direct radiograph to density reconstruction in the presence of scatter, even when relatively small amounts of scatter are present. Our experiments on synthetic data show that the approach can produce high quality, robust reconstructions. We also show that the distance (in feature space) between a testing radiograph and the training set can serve as a diagnostic of the accuracy of the reconstruction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Efficient near-field ptychography reconstruction using the Hessian operator

X-ray ptychography is a powerful and robust coherent imaging method providing access to the complex object and probe (illumination). Ptychography reconstruction is typically performed using first-order methods due to their computational efficiency. Higher-order methods, while potentially more accurate, are often prohibitively expensive in terms of computation. In this study, we present a mathematical framework for reconstruction using second-order information derived from an efficient computation of the bilinear Hessian and Hessian operator. The formulation is provided for Gaussian-based models, enabling the simultaneous reconstruction of the object, probe, and object positions. Synthetic data tests, along with experimental near-field ptychography data processing, demonstrate a ten-fold reduction in computation time compared to first-order methods. The derived formulas for computing the Hessians, along with the strategies for incorporating them into optimization schemes, are well-structured and easily adaptable to various ptychography problem formulations.

Carlsson, Marcus [Lund Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000↗

Science-informed Machine Learning to Increase Recovery Efficiency in Unconventional Reservoirs

Production of hydrocarbons from fractured, unconventional reservoirs is inherently inefficient. But machine learning offers a pathway both to increasing recovery efficiency at a site and to improving forecasts of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. Los Alamos—in partnership with DOE, NETL, and WVU—has been developing a science-informed workflow and platform for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which will allow an operator to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. This work relies on a hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (in combination with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. The physics-based prediction is built upon experimental and theoretical work to determine transport characteristics in shale at various scales, with an emphasis on materials from MSEEL-I; this fundamental shale R&D was conducted in partnership with DOE, NETL, and several other national labs. This work has resulted from a coordinated leveraging of developments across several projects within DOE FE30, along with internal investments from Los Alamos via LDRD. The development has utilized data from the MSEEL–I site for calibration and demonstration; however, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins. This machine-learning method can aid operators to improve both recovery efficiency and competitiveness; to this end, future work would quantify processes for other plays/basins and integrate production details with economics.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

simple_RDE_model

Jupyter notebook containing a simple rotating detonation engine model to generate synthetic data for exploring data analysis techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LANL Activities on Mechanistic Approach to Analyzing and Improving Unconventional Hydrocarbon Production

Hydrocarbon production from shale reservoirs is inherently inefficient and challenging since these are low permeability plays. In addition, there is a limited understanding of the fundamentals and the controlling mechanisms, further complicating how to optimize these plays. Herein, we summarize our experimental and computational efforts fully and partially supported by the fundamental shale portfolio to reveal unconventional shale fundamentals and devise development strategies to enhance extraction efficiency with a minimal environmental footprint. Integrating these fundamentals with machine learning, we outline a pathway to improve the predictive power of our models, which enhances the forecast quality of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. For instance, we have developed science informed workflows and platforms for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which allow operators to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. Recently, our work relies on the hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (combined with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. Consequently, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Automating neutron resonances classification with Machine Learning [Slides]

Team reported the following accomplishments: the development of a Machine-Learning method to properly assign spins to neutron resonances (automated, general, reproducible); full integration with evaluated resonances in the Atlas (automation of new editions); training and optimization in synthetic data; validation and deployment to real experimental resonances. Future perspectives include exploration of other classifiers and hyper-parameter combinations, further validation with well-known nucleus (e.g. 235 U), and publication pipeline.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Emulation Modeling for Development of Cyber-Defense Capabilities for Satellite Systems

The objective of this project was to develop a novel capability to generate synthetic data sets for the purpose of training Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the detection of malicious activities on satellite systems. The approach experimented with was to a) generate sparse data sets using emulation modeling and b) enlarge the sparse data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). We based our emulation modeling on the Open Source NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3) developed by the Katherine Johnson Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) program in West Virginia. Significant new capabilities on NOS3 had to be developed for our data set generation needs. To expand these data sets for the purpose of training ML, we experimented with a) Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) and b) Wasserstein-GANs (WGAN-GP).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model: Improvement and Quality Assurance

The multisegmented wellbore model (MSW) semi-analytically estimates the amount of CO 2 and brine leakage from a leaking legacy well by segmenting it into intervals to simulate site-specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. The model is a component of the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), which was developed to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The new wellbore leakage model, which uses deep learning networks for a caprock segment, was developed to enhance the analytical MSW. The model was trained and validated using a synthetic data set of Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) multiphase flow simulations from various geological, well attribute, and operational conditions to ensure its quality. The results demonstrate that the model is more accurate than the existing model in predicting the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well. This report provides a detailed explanation of the model development and quality assurance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Source localization for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

The nuclear imaging system at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a crucial diagnostic for determining the geometry of inertial confinement fusion implosions. The geometry is reconstructed from a neutron aperture image via a set of reconstruction algorithms using an iterative Bayesian inference approach. An important step in these reconstruction algorithms is finding the fusion source location within the camera field-of-view. Currently, source localization is achieved via an iterative optimization algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning approach for source localization. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network to predict source locations given a neutron aperture image. We show that this approach decreases computation time by several orders of magnitude compared to the current optimization-based source localization while achieving similar accuracy on both synthetic data and a collection of recent NIF deuterium–tritium shots.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Ultra-High-Speed X-ray Tomography: Bridging the Gaps to See the Unknown

Rapid, time-varying, three-dimensional physics underpin numerous engineering challenges. Often, these physics occur within opaque environments, internal to a component, severely limiting applicable diagnostics. Development of novel diagnostics is necessary to understand and predict transient three-dimensional (3D) phenomena within opaque environments. This report highlights progress in four key areas leading to advancements in high-speed X-ray radiography and tomography. The first area is enabling MHz-rate imaging of energetics at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The second is modeling a high-flux, rotating-anode X-ray source to understand the heat loads on the anode. The third effort was to develop a novel reconstruction algorithm that is validated by ground experimental tomography data and synthetic tomography data. The fourth is the development of a novel approach to two-color X-ray imaging.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Cosmology: Can NPE reliably replace MCMC?

Hierarchical neural posterior estimation has its place Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling (HBM) combined with MCMC algorithms has been shown to provide more robust and accurate inference for real-world phenomena in which nature takes a nested form. However, MCMC-based inference can be computationally expensive, and its performance often suffers for complex posterior geometries. These costs are especially pertinent for HBM. Studies have recently demonstrated the potential for a flexible, expressive, and amortized hierarchical neural posterior estimator (HNPE) built on Normalizing Flows. These studies have mostly been performed on simple datasets, or they focus on a single parameter from each level of the hierarchy. A systematic study analyzing how both hierarchical methods compare for more complex and realistic datasets is necessary before applying HNPE for scientific measurements. Here, we re-explore the theory behind HNPE and conduct comparative numerical experiments of HNPE and MCMC-based HBM methods on real and synthetic data, including strong gravitational lensing simulations. In particular, we use a suite of diagnostics to show trade-offs in terms of accuracy, precision, time to train or sample, reproducibility, and the need for expert domain knowledge. Especially for higher dimensional and complex posteriors, HNPE is expected to drastically improve on time for inference, accuracy, and precision with an upfront training time cost.

Hur, Rachel [Chicago U.] (ORCID:000900089890445X)↗

Enhanced Multi-Dimensional Inversion Through Target-Specific Inversion Parameter Bounds With an Application to Crosswell Electromagnetic for Sequestration Monitoring

In geophysical inversions, lower and upper model parameter bounds are a means of solution stabilization. Further, constraints that intend to let only geologically plausible inverse solutions pass are amenable to lower and upper bounds. Reliable prior information is paramount to construct such bound constraints. It is common practice to narrow and widen bound intervals for regions of, respectively, more and less certain prior information. Contrary to this practice, we experiment with widened bound intervals in zones that are poorly resolved by a given survey configuration but where prior information would suggest structural anomalies of interest. The purpose of enlarged parameter bounds that correlate spatially with predefined targets is to let the inversion explore a larger solution space, thus increasing the potential to resolve otherwise hidden anomalies. Application of the method is based on a carbon-sequestration baseline (pre-injection) crosswell electromagnetic (EM) field survey at the Containment and Monitoring Institute Field Research Station (Alberta, Canada), where impeded measurements led to generally reduced sensitivities for the interwell region. Synthetic-data proofs of concept use augmented bounds designed to boost the resolution of artificial plume targets, indicating an enhanced illumination compared to constant bounds. Comparative field data inversions with spatially variable bounds constructed from prior resistivity and velocity information highlight non-horizontal baseline structures.

3-D electrical resistivity imaging↗

Towards the first plasma-electron screening experiment

The enhancement of fusion reaction rates in a thermonuclear plasma by electron screening of the Coulomb barrier is an important plasma-nuclear effect that is present in stellar models but has not been experimentally observed. Experiments using inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions may provide a unique opportunity to observe this important plasma-nuclear effect. Herein, we show that experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have reached the relevant physical regime, with respect to the density and temperature conditions, but the estimated impacts of plasma screening on nuclear reaction rates are currently too small and need to be increased to lower the expected measurement uncertainty. Detailed radiation hydrodynamics simulations show that practical target changes, like adding readily available high-Z gases, and significantly slowing the inflight implosion velocity, while maintaining inflight kinetic energy, might be able to push these conditions to those where plasma screening effects may be measurable. We also perform synthetic data exercises to help understand where the anticipated experimental uncertainties will become important. But challenges remain, such as the detectability of the reaction products, non-thermal plasma effects, species separation, and impacts of spatial and temporal gradients. This work lays the foundation for future efforts to develop an important platform capable of the first plasma electron screening observation.

inertial confinement fusion↗

Inference, Prediction, & Entropy-Rate Estimation of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide new methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating them. The methods rely on an extension of Bayesian structural inference that takes advantage of neural network’s universal approximation power. Based on experiments with complex synthetic data, the methods are competitive with the state-of-the-art for prediction and entropy-rate estimation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗