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Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Synthesis Roadmap for Actinide Chloride Salts

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are among the main advanced nuclear reactor types at the forefront of development by industry, with the support of the US government, for the next fleet of nuclear reactors to support the demand for energy in the coming decades. MSRs are highly unique because they are cooled and typically also fueled by molten salt. This quality brings about safety benefits such as low-pressure operation and self-stabilization of the neutron flux, operational benefits such as high-temperature operation and the ability for online refueling, and fuel and waste management benefits thanks to the flexibility of post-processing of molten salts and reprocessing options that involve removal of fission products and actinide separation. In fact, domestic deployment of molten salt (or molten salt–cooled) reactors is an approaching reality: a handful of molten salt reactor developers are planning to operate demonstration-scale reactors, as a step toward commercial-scale power reactors, within the decade. For example, Natura Resources received a construction permit in September 2024 for the deployment of MSR-1, which is a graphite-moderated thermal spectrum reactor, at Abilene Christian University. Also, TerraPower, in a collaborative effort with Southern Company and Idaho National Laboratory (INL), received approval from DOE in 2023 to proceed with the construction of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), a homogeneous chloride fast reactor at INL, and has begun assembly of system components. There are several other examples of developers at different stages of development of their own unique MSR designs (Jenet et al., 2025). As developers are in the process of obtaining approvals for their designs, deploying demonstration-scale reactors, and planning for their commercial-scale power reactors, there is a critical supply chain need for the synthesis of fuel for these reactors that must be addressed. The challenge generally is three-fold: (1) the quantity of fueled salt needed for these reactors is extraordinarily high (>100s of kilograms), but demonstrations of scaled-up techniques for fueled salt synthesis are significantly more limited than demonstrations of lab-scale syntheses; (2) each developer has a unique reactor design, which means different actinide halide elements in different carrier salts must be synthesized; and (3) there is a need for particularly high-purity salt so as to ensure the long-term operability of these reactors with minimal degradation to salt-wetted components, which necessitates synthesis techniques with high levels of quality control, repeatability, and well-characterized precursor and reactant materials. It is crucial that this supply chain challenge be addressed by demonstrating synthesis techniques that are scalable, de-risked, and well-documented so that these technologies may be adopted and utilized by industry to support the fueling needs of MSRs that are to come online within the next 10 years. With this supply chain challenge clearly defined for the developing MSR industry, it is important to consider that addressing such a challenge is oftentimes complex and context-dependent. There is not necessarily a single synthesis technique that can be scaled up and adopted to address the needs of all MSR developers; the synthesis approach that may be viable for producing a desired fuel salt will be entirely dependent on the exact salt composition needed, the quantity needed, purity needed, the refueling and waste plans, and the availability of a carrier salt for the fuel. Therefore, it is important to consider more broadly what synthesis techniques are available and have been demonstrated to understand the benefits, challenges, and general nuances that should be considered when evaluating a particular route for efficient production of high-purity fuel salts at scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Effects of PLA/PHB Blend Ratio and Wood Flour Loading on the Melt Rheology and Thermomechanical Properties of Biobased Polymer Composites

The development of sustainable, biobased polymer composites is crucial for reducing supply chain dependence on fossil fuels. A major challenge lies in understanding and predicting the processability of these sustainable material alternatives, which directly impacts large-scale manufacturing. Here, this study systematically investigates the effect of poly(lactic acid) (PLA)/polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) blend ratios and wood flour (WF) loadings on the thermal, rheological, and mechanical properties of the composites. Composites were prepared via melt compounding and characterized by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), oscillatory shear melt rheology, tensile testing, and scanning electron microscopy. Results showed that increasing the PHB content lowered the glass transition temperature, while higher PHB and WF loadings decreased thermal stability. Complex viscosity decreased with increasing PHB in 0 and 10% WF, whereas it increased in 20% and 30% WF for PHB-rich blends (80/20 and 70/30 PLA/PHB) due to stronger filler interactions with flexible PHB chains. At 30% WF, PHB-containing composites also showed elastic dominance with G′ higher than G″. This behavior was confirmed by van Gurp–Palmen plots, where the phase angle decreased with increasing PHB and WF loadings. WF addition also shifted Cole–Cole plots away from semicircular terminal relaxation, while time–temperature superposition validity was maintained, confirming that polymer chain dynamics continue to dominate melt behavior. Young’s modulus increased with WF loading, while tensile strength and toughness decreased due to weaker interfacial adhesion between the matrix and the filler. Interestingly, 10% WF systems containing PHB exhibited the highest toughness among all of the filled systems, indicating synergistic reinforcement from WF fillers and PHB-induced ductility. Overall, melt rheology effectively captured the internal structure and stiffness of the composites as the formulation changed, reinforcing the concept that the PLA/PHB ratio and WF content can be tuned to adjust melt elasticity and balance mechanical property trade-offs for targeted applications.

melt rheology↗

Phenolic Resin Derived Hard Carbon Anode for Sodium-Ion Batteries: A Review

Sodium-ion batteries are complementary to lithium-ion batteries for grid-scale energy storage applications due to lower cost, safety, and potential for sustainable supply chains. The past decade has witnessed enormous research efforts in developing hard carbon anode materials for sodium-ion batteries. Phenolic resins have received significant attention as hard carbon precursors due to their high carbon yield, highly cross-linked structure, low cost, mature technology, and excellent electrochemical performance of corresponding hard carbon anode. This Review exclusively highlights the state-of-the-art preparation of hard carbon from phenolic resins, and the electrochemical performance in sodium-ion batteries. Cross-linked resins are prepared from three phenolic monomers (phenol, resorcinol, and phloroglucinol) to produce hard carbon. The effects of carbonization temperature on the microstructure, and electrochemical properties of hard carbon have been summarized here. Hard carbon formation, and sodium storage mechanisms have been briefly outlined. Finally, this Review provides an industrial perspective on hard carbon production at scale.

aromatic compounds↗

Accelerating engineered microbe optimization through machine learning and multi-omics datasets

This project demonstrated the use of a combination of multi-omics data with deep learning and a high-throughput Design- Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycle to improve the production of malonic acid, a versatile product with a large market. The project leveraged the unique capabilities of both Lygos and the Agile BioFoundry (ABF): Lygos provided its expertise efficiently designing, building, and cultivating P. kudriavzevii strains; LBNL, PNNL, and NTESS provided multi-omics analysis in the Test phase, LBNL provided machine learning techniques in the Learn phase to analyze the -omics datasets and make recommendations so as to increase malonic acid production in the next DBTL cycle. This project is the first to use large amounts of multi-omics time-series data to feed deep learning models, creating around 80,000 data points in a single DBTL cycle. This project has 1) demonstrated the utility of combining deep learning and multi-omics data sets by improving the production of malonic acid two fold, 2) created a large time-series datasets to be released publicly for external development of new machine learning algorithms, and 3) shown that supply chain problems, strain building bottlenecks, and adaptation times for new ML approaches are key obstacles for fast DBTL cycle times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fractionation of Lignocellulosic Biomass into High-Value Products - CRADA Report

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed a process for adding value in the biomass feedstock supply chain. The key aspects of this process include: (1) anaerobic and chemical treatment of biomass during storage, (2) fractionation of biomass into conversion-ready feedstock and high-value coproducts, and (3) high-moisture pelleting to increase the bulk density and stabilize the feedstock. The purpose of the chemical treatment is to overcome the recalcitrant nature of the feedstock to improve the biochemical conversion process of breaking down the biomass into sugars. To maximize the utilization of the biomass, the feedstock can be fractionated into hemicellulose and lignin rich fractions. Finally, to increase the materials overall energy density, produce a shelf-stable material, and to facilitate transport, the feedstock is densified in a pelleting process. The first two steps of the processes have been verified at bench scale showing an improvement in theoretical glucose yield from 23.1% to 44.5% and an improvement in theoretical xylose yield from 8.9% to 23.1% from ground corn stover. It is hypothesized that densification will further increase the carbohydrate yield in the sample. The goal of this project was to evaluate the technical feasibility and process economics of the above process and to provide preliminary data to Golden Leaf Energy, Inc to access its potential commercialization for converting biomass to ethanol and renewable chemicals. Corn stover (CS), the largest available agricultural residue, and Chinese tallow (CT), an invasive wood species with no current commercial value, were chosen as feedstocks for this project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Recent developments in filtration media and respirator technology in response to COVID-19

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a surge in demand for N95 or equivalent respirators that the global supply chain was unable to satisfy. This shortage in critical equipment has inspired research that addresses the immediate problems and has accelerated the development of the next-generation filtration media and respirators. This article provides a brief review of the most recent work with regard to face respirators and filtration media. We discuss filtration efficiency of the widely utilized cloth masks. Next, the sterilization of and reuse of existing N95 respirators to extend the existing stockpile is discussed. To expand near-term supplies, optimization of current manufacturing methods, such as melt-blown processes and electrospinning, has been explored. Future manufacturing methods have been investigated to address long-term supply shortages. Novel materials with antiviral and sterilizable properties with the ability for multiple reuses have been developed and will contribute to the development of the next generation of longer lasting multi-use N95 respirators. Finally, additively manufactured respirators are reviewed, which enable a rapidly deployable source of reusable respirators that can use any filtration fabric. Graphic abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of the generation III (ATR generation I) Plutonium-238 production target design

A domestic supply chain to produce 238 Pu fuel for radioisotope thermoelectric generators is critical for enabling future space exploration. A multi-laboratory effort has worked to establish a common target design to efficiently produce 238 Pu in two research reactors. This approach ensures that the annual production goals set forth by NASA are met, while also establishing redundant production capabilities. Here, this paper describes the effort to develop the common target design as well as considerations for future applications for the irradiation platform.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sustainable Critical Minerals: Mining, Production, and Legacy

Critical minerals (CMs) are required in renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, electronics, and national defense. Global demand has increased rapidly due to energy and digital transitions, and the United States has become increasingly reliant on vulnerable supply chains. Geological scarcity, trade barriers, environmental hurdles, and processing challenges impede domestic CM production growth. Emerging strategies, including circular economy practices and advanced sustainable mining and processing techniques, can mitigate supply chain and economic risks. To advance these approaches, consistent research priorities, policy revisions, and technology investments are required to develop a resilient CM supply. Doing so with a focus on sustainability goals can simultaneously advance domestic economic and technological goals while limiting environmental impacts and supporting global environmental goals.

biomining↗

The Role of the Sellafield Ltd Centres of Expertise in Engaging with the Science, Environment and Technology Supply Chain and University Sector to Support Site Operations and Decommissioning in the UK Nuclear Industry - 13018

The development and maintenance of the broad range of the highly technical skills required for safe and successful management of nuclear sites is of vital importance during routine operations, decommissioning and waste treatment activities.. In order to maintain a core team of technical experts, across all of the disciplines required for these tasks, the approach which has been taken by the Sellafield Ltd has been the formation of twenty five Centres of Expertise (CoE), each covering key aspects of the technical skills required for nuclear site operations. Links with the Specialist University Departments: The CoE leads are also responsible for establishing formal links with university departments with specialist skills and facilities relevant to their CoE areas. The objective of these links is to allow these very specialist capabilities within the university sector to be more effectively utilized by the nuclear industry, which benefits both sectors. In addition to the utilization of specialist skills, the university links are providing an important introduction to the nuclear industry for students and researchers. This is designed to develop the pipeline of potential staff, who will be required in the future by both the academic and industrial sectors. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Chelation ion chromatography as an automated, and cost-effective analytical technique for REE determination: method development and applications

Rare earth elements (REEs), as critical minerals, have important uses in modern energy and technologies, yet are vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. To establish domestic REE supply chain, efficient REE detection methods for resource characterization and mineral processing will be needed to accelerate innovations for domestic REE recovery. This study developed a rapid, novel, and cost-effective for REE detection method using ion chromatography (IC) for aqueous samples. Various REE-targeted eluent gradients and post-column agent compositions were tested on the chelation ion chromatography (CIC) with UV-vis detector for optimal separation and quantification of REEs within approximately 20 min. The single-channel pump to deliver the post-column solution to UV-vis detector was replaced with a 4-channel gradient pump, to increase operation and maintenance efficiencies. After method optimization, resulting calibration curves for more than ten REEs achieved high coefficients of determination (R2>0.999) and low relatively standard deviations (below 3.24%), demonstrating sub-ppm level detection limits (0.0897 to 0.1149 mg/L). The reliability of the CIC method was validated through comparison with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing strong agreement in REE recovery from certified standards. The impact of metal ions and salts on REE recovery using CIC was also systematically investigated. CIC consistently exhibited reliable performance in the presence of salt solutions such as NaCl and Na₂SO₄ (up to 10,000 mg/L). Our study also found the presence of high concentrations of Al ions (at 10,000 mg/L) significantly influenced REE determination, and elevated concentrations of Ca ions affected the recovery of specific REEs, including La, Ce, and Pr. The CIC method was further tested on REE-containing eluents from solvent extraction tests out of fly ash leachates. REE detection from these real processing fluids were reported to achieve 90% to 100% recovery rate from our IC method, compared to ICP-MS results. This study underscores the potential of CIC as a reliable and efficient alternative for REE determination in complex matrices. It also highlights the importance of minimizing select interfering metal ions in solutions to ensure accurate results. The REE CIC method presents a promising, low-maintenance, salt-tolerant, and cost-effective alternative to traditional analytical methods for REE analysis.

detection of rare earth elements (REE)↗

The Demand for a Domestic Offshore Wind Energy Supply Chain

In March of 2021, the Biden-Harris Administration established a National Offshore Wind Target to install 30 GW by 2030. This ambitious goal was not only intended to help reduce dependencies on fossil fuels, but also represents an opportunity to establish a new and sustainable industry in the United States. The announcement referenced the potential benefits of establishing a domestic supply chain, including the opportunity for existing suppliers to produce thousands of components while creating tens of thousands of jobs over the course of the decade. This vision by the Biden-Harris Administration aligns with the perspective of the offshore wind industry. At a Leadership 100 event hosted by the Business Network for Offshore wind in 2019, offshore wind developers and manufacturers identified the need for a roadmap outlining a pathway to a domestic supply chain as the top priority facing the industry. Building up domestic manufacturing capabilities will not only energize local industries but can potentially de-risk individual project by reducing reliance on importing resources from European or Asian markets. Although establishing a domestic supply chain will require significant investment, it has the potential to create substantial benefits throughout the industry and, by extension, on the decarbonization goals of the United States. This study characterizes the challenges and opportunities facing the growth of a domestic supply chain industry and evaluates the potential benefits that could be achieved through the creation of the supply chain. This report is the first of a two-part series which will describe the full supply chain roadmap and the associated benefits; the current report focuses on the high-level deployment, workforce, and component requirements that need to be met to achieve the National Offshore Wind Target. We will present: 1. A deployment pipeline that demonstrates the pathway to 30 GW, the associated demand for major fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind components (turbines, foundations, cables, substations), and the vessel and port requirements to support these installation activities. 2. A series of sensitivity analyses showing how the demand for components, ports, and vessels changes for different technology pathways and availability of the global supply chain. 3. An estimate of the total number of jobs that would be required to support these deployment scenarios under varying levels of assumed domestic content. 4. A comprehensive list of the Tier 1, 2, and 3 components (finished components, subassemblies, and subcomponents) required to construct fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind projects. 5. A discussion of critical path components that represent a significant challenge, bottleneck, or risk for a future domestic supply chain.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Summary: Nuclear Energy Critical Material Waste Reduction and Supply Chain Solutions Enabled by Advanced Manufacturing

In September 2020, the U.S. government issued an executive order to address the threat to the domestic supply chain from its reliance on critical minerals (CMs) from foreign competitors and to support the domestic mining and processing industry. A national strategy on CMs with impact on the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) vision for 2021–2031 was developed. This vision embraces science and technology to re-establish U.S. competitiveness in the CM and material supply chains by (a) scientific innovation and technologies to ensure resilient and secure CMs and maintain a domestic material supply chain, (b) building a long-term minerals and materials innovation ecosystem to foster new capabilities to mitigate CM supply chain challenges, (c) increasing private sector adoption for sustaining the domestic CM supply chain, and (d) coordinating with international partners and federal agencies to diversify global supply chains and ensure the adoption of best practices for sustainable mining and processing (DOE 2021).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Developments on Reusable TPS Materials Based Upon Shuttle Tile

The insulating tiles used on the Space Shuttler Orbiter, principally AETB (Alumina Enhanced Thermal Barrier), have been seen by new vehicle developers in the aerospace industry as a fast-track approach for fielding a reusable thermal protection system (TPS) given the extensive use by both the Orbiter program and the current Orion vehicle. NASA has, and is, supporting the industry through technology transfer and commercial crew and payloads programs. However, the reusable TPS community is rapidly encountering challenges rooted in Orbiter’s and Orion’s dependence on legacy material and processes. With the aim of alleviating these issues, improving availability of reusable TPS, and strengthening the nation’s space economy, ongoing efforts at NASA Ames have focused on understanding process-property relationships in AETB as well as novel materials and technologies for reusable TPS. The first portion of this talk will address the effects of raw materials and processing conditions on the properties of AETB-8, including the raw materials used, mixing and casting parameters, and thermal history. Understanding these relationships, and how they extend to aerothermal performance, is instrumental in alleviating supply chain constraints and improving manufacturability. The implications of these finding on development of novel TPS materials and systems will be discussed. AETB will likely continue to fill a niche of relatively high performance with associated costs. There exists, therefore, a gap in developed reusable TPS for a lower cost, moderate performing material system. The later portion of this talk will touch on current development efforts at Ames focusing on reduced cost and ease of integration, which are being pursued in addition to AETB and higher performing systems. In addition to summarizing these efforts, an outlook for these projects and collaborations will be given.

Peter Edward Marshall↗