SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Subsurface geologic modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

NASA NTRS1994

What we have learned about Mars from SNC meteorites

The SNC meteorites are thought to be igneous martian rocks, based on their young crystallization ages and a close match between the composition of gases implanted in them during shock and the atmosphere of Mars. A related meteorite, ALH84001, may be older and thus may represent ancient martian crust. These petrologically diverse basalts and ultramafic rocks are mostly cumulates, but their parent magmas share geochemical and radiogenic isotopic characteristics that suggest they may have formed by remelting the same mantle source region at different times. Information and inferences about martian geology drawn from these samples include the following: Planetary differentiation occured early at approximately 4.5 GA, probably concurrently with accretion. The martian mantle contains different abundances of moderately volatile and siderophile elements and is more Fe-rich than that of the Earth, which has implications for its mineralogy, density, and origin. The estimated core composition has a S abundance near the threshold value for inner core solidification. The former presence of a core dynamo may be suggested by remanent magnetization in Shergottite-Nakhlite-Chassignite (SNC) meteorites, although these rocks may have been magnetized during shock. The mineralogy of martian surface units, inferred from reflectance spectra, matches that of basaltic shergottites, but SNC lithologies thought to have crystallized in the subsurface are not presently recognized. The rheological properties of martian magmas are more accurately derived form these metorites than from observations of martian flow morphology, although the sampled range of magma compositions islimited. Estimates of planetary water abundance and the amount of outgassed water based on these meteorites are contridictory but overlap estimates based on geological observations and atmospheric measurements. Stable isotope measurements indicate that the martian hydrosphere experienced only limited exchange with the lithosphere, but it is in isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere and has been since 1.3 Ga. The isotopically heavy atmosphere/hydrosphere composition deduced from these rocks reflects a loss process more severe than current atmospheric evolution models, and the occurence of carbonates in SNC meteorites suggest that they, rather than scapolite or hydrous carbonates, are the major crustal sink for CO2. Weathering products in SNC meteorites support the idea of limited alteration of the lithosphere by small volumes of saline, CO2-bearing water. Atmospheric composition and evolution are further constrained by noble gases in these meteorites, although Xe and Kr isotopes suggest different origins for the atmosphere. Planetary ejection of these rocks has promoted an advance in the understanding of impact physics, which has been accomplished by a model involving spallation during large cratering events. Ejection of all the SNC meteorites (except ALH84001) in one or two events may provide a plausible solution to most constraints imposed by chronology, geochemistry, and cosmic ray exposure, although problems remain with this scenario; ALH84001 may represent older martian crust sampled during a separate impact.

Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1996

Hydrothermal systems on Mars: an assessment of present evidence

Hydrothermal processes have been suggested to explain a number of observations for Mars, including D/H ratios of water extracted from Martian meteorites, as a means for removing CO2 from the Martian atmosphere and sequestering it in the crust as carbonates, and as a possible origin for iron oxide-rich spectral units on the floors of some rifted basins (chasmata). There are numerous examples of Martian channels formed by discharges of subsurface water near potential magmatic heat sources, and hydrothermal processes have also been proposed as a mechanism for aquifer recharge needed to sustain long term erosion of sapping channels. The following geological settings have been identified as targets for ancient hydrothermal systems on Mars: channels located along the margins of impact crater melt sheets and on the slopes of ancient volcanoes; chaotic and fretted terranes where shallow subsurface heat sources are thought to have interacted with ground ice; and the floors of calderas and rifted basins (e.g. chasmata). On Earth, such geological environments are often a locus for hydrothermal mineralization. But we presently lack the mineralogical information needed for a definitive evaluation of hypotheses. A preferred tool for identifying minerals by remote sensing methods on Earth is high spatial resolution, hyperspectral, near-infrared spectroscopy, a technique that has been extensively developed by mineral explorationists. Future efforts to explore Mars for ancient hydrothermal systems would benefit from the application of methods developed by the mining industry to look for similar deposits on Earth. But Earth-based exploration models must be adapted to account for the large differences in the climatic and geological history of Mars. For example, it is likely that the early surface environment of Mars was cool, perhaps consistently below freezing, with the shallow portions of hydrothermal systems being dominated by magma-cryosphere interactions. Given the smaller gravitational field, declining atmospheric pressure, and widespread, permeable megaregolith on Mars, volatile outgassing and magmatic cooling would have been more effective than on Earth. Thus, hydrothermal systems are likely to have had much lower average surface temperatures than comparable geological settings on Earth. The likely predominance of basaltic crust on Mars suggests that hydrothermal fluids and associated deposits should be enriched in Fe, Mg, Si and Ca, with surficial deposits being dominated by lower temperature, mixed iron oxide and carbonate mineralogies.

Review↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of time-dependent deformation of shale on the integrity of a geological nuclear waste repository

Safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories is essential for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive waste. The long-term integrity of the host rock as well as the engineered barrier system (e.g., bentonite buffer) surrounding nuclear waste canisters is of particular importance as decay heat from nuclear waste canisters, which will last over thousands of years, significantly disturbs the thermo-hydromechanical (THM) state of the repository. In this study, THM coupled simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep) of shale on the long-term integrity of a generic subsurface nuclear waste repository. The Norton-Bailey creep model, which is also known as the Lemaitre-Menzel-Schreiner model, was employed to simulate the power-law type creep that is observed in shales. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator was employed for the THM coupled modeling of the repository. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of creep in different shales (i.e., high creep shale vs. low creep shale) on long-term stress and permeability changes in the repository. Results show potential advantages of constructing repositories in the high creep shale, as deviatoric stress levels in the formation decreased to zero in 100 years since the emplacement of nuclear waste canisters and the permeability also decreased to the undamaged, intrinsic levels in 10,000 years. Also, mean effective stress levels in the bentonite buffer increased by 100% in the high creep shale case relative to the low creep shale case at 10,000 years due to creep-induced contraction of the nuclear waste disposal tunnel. However, in earlier periods (e.g., 1000 years), the stress levels in the bentonite buffer were twice smaller in the high creep shale case than in the low creep shale case, which shows a tradeoff between the intermediate- (~1000 years) and long-term (>10,000 years) compaction levels in the bentonite buffer depending on the creep characteristics of the host shale.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Blue Canyon Dome Emplacement Artifacts

The Blue Canyon Dome (BCD) experiments are a series of intermediate scale subsurface chemical explosions designed to explore the geophysical relationship between scaled yields and formation damage. Phase 2 of this experiment involved explosions designed to evaluate the effect of damage, demonstrating the effect of geologic features and previous damage on the near field seismic signatures, not just in amplitude, but also in spectral content. Based on the emplacement effect on the seismic signature, the moment-based yield estimates showed error between 10s-1000s of percent. This report details an alternative approach to emplacement-based filtering techniques of the seismic signatures to improve yield estimates for explosions in damaged rock. The results will be used to develop an improved inverse yield model that leverages the information in the seismic signature for each source based on emplacement type.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models

Previous analytical and simulation-based analyses suggest that deeper land surface models are needed to realistically simulate the terrestrial thermal state in climate models, with implications for land-atmosphere interactions. Analytical approaches mainly focused on the subsurface propagation of harmonics such as the annual temperature signal, and a direct comparison with climate-change model output has been elusive. Here, this study addresses the propagation of a harmonic pulse fitted to represent the timescale and amplitude of anthropogenic warming. Its comparison to land model simulations with stepwise increased bottom boundary depth leads to an agreement between the simulation-based and analytical frameworks for long-term climate trends. Any depth increase gradually decreases the relative error in the subsurface thermodynamics, and a minimum depth of 170 m is recommended to simulate the ground climate adequately. The approach provides an accurate estimate of the required land-model depth for climate-change simulations and assesses the relative bias in insufficiently deep land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Different Operation Conditions and Geological Formation Characteristics on CO2 Sequestration in Citronelle Dome, Alabama

Major concerns of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in subsurface formations are knowledge of the well injectivity and gas storage capacity of the formation, the CO2 pressure and saturation plume extensions during and after injection, and the risks associated with CO2 leakage and fault reactivation. Saline reservoirs are considered as one of the target formations for CO2 sequestration through structural, residual, dissolution, and mineral trapping mechanisms. The boundary condition of the saline reservoir dictates the pressure and saturation plume extension of the injected supercritical CO2 that could expand over large distances. This can lead to sources of risk, e.g., leakage and/or fault reactivation due to presence of wells, thief zones, and geological discontinuities. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a model that describes how risk-related performance metrics (i.e., the CO2 saturation plume size, the pressure differential plume area, and the pressure differential at specific locations) vary as a function of the size of injection, time following injection, injection operations, and geologic environment. In this study, a systematic reservoir modeling studies of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in Citronelle dome, Alabama, was performed where all relevant scenarios and conditions to address the questions of the saturation and pressure plume size in the area of review (AoR) and post-injection site care (PISC) are considered. The objective for this study was firstly to systematically simulate CO2 sequestration, i.e., saturation dynamics, and pressure behavior over a range of operational and geological conditions and to derive conclusions about the factors influencing saturation and pressure plume size, post-injection behavior, and the risk associated with them, by developing third-generation reduced order models (ROMs) for reservoir behavior. Finally, to assess the uncertainty associated with our studies, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) together with an experimental design technique, i.e., Plackett–Burman design, was used. Application of Pareto charts and respond surfaces enabled us to determine the most important parameters impacting saturation and pressure plume sizes and to quantify the auto- and cross-correlation among different parameters in both history-matched and upscaled models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

EERC Final Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 3.2 – Produced Water Management Through Geologic Homogenization, Conditions, and Reuse

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was awarded a contract by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Oil and Gas Research Program (NDIC No. G-051-101) to conduct a study on the recycling of water used in oil and gas operations, also known as produced water, from oil- and gas-producing regions of North Dakota as directed by Section 19 of North Dakota House Bill 1014. This final report provides a compilation of results of the study, which include regulatory, scientific, technological, and feasibility methods and considerations associated with North Dakota produced water management. The report provides a synopsis of this project’s previously submitted produced water assessment report entitled “Produced Water Management and Recycling Options in North Dakota” (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020), with updated values provided as appropriate. The report provides the results from the investigation of a novel produced water management strategy, referred to as geologic homogenization, conditioning, and reuse (GHCR), which aims to use a subsurface geologic formation as a natural medium for managing produced water recycling and reuse. Water management is a significant technical and economic challenge for sustainable oil and gas production, and water volumes are intrinsically linked to oil production volumes. North Dakota oil production rose to over 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl)/day in 2019, and despite a downturn in oil price in early 2020, North Dakota oil production has recovered to 1.1 MMbbl/day as of August 2021. Bakken petroleum system development between 2008 and 2020 has resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in produced water volumes to 642 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after peaking at 740 MMbbl/yr in 2019 and a fivefold increase in saltwater disposal (SWD) volumes to 565 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after a peak of 682 MMbbl/yr in 2019. Produced water and SWD volumes are forecasted to double by 2030. SWD is the primary method of produced water management used in North Dakota, with approximately 95% of the SWD volume occurring through subsurface injection into sandstones of the Dakota Group (Dakota). Localized pressurization of the Dakota resulting from SWD and projected increases in produced water volumes could impact the economics of North Dakota oil production. As a result, there is an emerging need to pursue alternative produced water management approaches, including recycling and reuse. While produced water recycling is not yet widespread, commercial operators are making strides in overcoming the technical challenges of using high salinity produced water in completion operations (Marathon Oil, 2020). As water management continues to be a key focal point in companies’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, focus on water management, including recycling, will likely continue to increase. Laboratory column testing, field sample collection, geologic modeling and numerical simulation, and techno-economic analysis all indicate that GHCR could feasibly be implemented as a potential water management option. Laboratory column testing and field sample collection indicate that the Inyan Kara sandstone and native formation fluid are capable of homogenizing with the Bakken produced water to a point where the fluid composition appears to stabilize. Extracting that stabilized fluid could be considered homogeneous and capable of providing individual batches of hydraulic fracturing fluid. Numerical simulation results indicate that extraction of fluids from the Inyan Kara in a GHCR implementation scenario is capable of reducing formation pressure, which would help ease localized pressurization of the Inyan Kara and extend the available capacity for nearby existing SWD wells. Economic analysis indicates that there are scenarios where GHCR implementation can be a competitive or even lower-cost option than a conventional water management approach. Site-specific conditions will dictate the economic potential of GHCR, but potentially attractive sites for GHCR implementation will be those that are located above a pressurized zone of the Inyan Kara, need six or more Bakken infill wells, and face high costs for conventional SWD and/or freshwater. Based on the regulatory review, drilling into the Inyan Kara for SWD and to harness as a source water for industrial use have precedent in North Dakota, and a workable regulatory solution for GHCR seems likely. However, restrictions in the state regarding surface storage and transport of produced fluids may limit some activities, which will affect how GHCR could ultimately be implemented. In summary, this study reveals pursuing GHCR can be a viable approach to water management in North Dakota. The GHCR concept addresses some of the challenges that hinder the more traditional approaches to recycling in the industry. Furthermore, an assessment of the current landscape of water management within the state reveals the ongoing trend of increasing volumes of produced water and SWD. Projections reveal that the volumes of produced water that need to be managed are expected to double over the next decade (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020). With the continued development of the Bakken and continuing driving factors related to ESG initiatives, implementing a practice such as GHCR is a feasible approach to adding recycling of produced water to industry within the state. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission Oil and Gas Research Program. References Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020, Produced water management and recycling options in North Dakota: Final Report for North Dakota Legislative Management Energy Development and Transmission Committee and North Dakota Industrial Commission. Marathon Oil, 2020, Sustainability report: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ghcnw9z2/website/ 91744eb6ef8fbe59505a911c6b8d2e8dd9a537fa.pdf?dl (accessed November 2021).

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complex carbonate phases drive geologic CO2 mineralization

Abstract Geologic carbon sequestration in mafic and ultramafic reservoirs is a scalable strategy for carbon dioxide removal, offering permanent storage via mineralization as stable carbonates. However, there is limited information on the structure and composition of key mineralization endpoints during sequestration. Here, we unravel the atomic structure, composition, and nanoscale morphology of carbonates recovered from a field-scale demonstration of CO 2 mineralization in basalt. Using transmission electron microscopy, we mapped mineralogical variations from the initial to later stages of subsurface carbonate growth and identified a previously unknown cation-ordered ankerite phase that exerts a primary control over carbonation processes. This study has provided a new understanding of subsurface carbonation pathways which will impact the parameterization of predictive geochemical models for future sequestration efforts in basalt formations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach to Predict Hydrogeological Parameters Using Shear Waves from the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves Method

For near-surface contaminant characterization, the accurate prediction of hydrogeological parameters in anisotropic and heterogeneous environments has been a challenge since the last decades. However, recent advances in near-surface geophysics have facilitated the use of geophysical data for hydrogeological characterization in the last few years. A pseudo 3-D high resolution P-wave shallow seismic reflection survey was performed at the P Reactor Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina in order to delineate and predict migration pathways of a large contaminant plume including trichloroethylene. This contaminant plume originates from the northwest section of the reactor facility that is located within the Upper Atlantic Coastal Plain. The data were collected with 40 Hz geophones, an accelerated weight-drop as seismic source and 1 m receiver spacing with near- and far-offsets of 0.5 and 119.5 m, respectively. In such areas with near-surface contaminants, a detailed subsurface characterization of the vadose zone hydraulic parameters is very important. Indeed, an inexpensive method of deriving such parameters by the use of seismic reflection surveys is beneficial, and our approach uses the relationship between seismic velocity and hydrogeological parameters together with empirical observations relating porosity to permeability and hydraulic conductivity. Shear wave velocity ( V s ) profiles were estimated from surface wave dispersion analysis of the seismic reflection data and were subsequently used to derive hydraulic parameters such as porosity, permeability, and hydraulic conductivity. Additional geophysical data including core samples, vertical seismic profiling, surface electrical resistivity tomography, natural gamma and electrical resistivity logs allowed for a robust assessment of the validity and geological significance of the estimated V s and hydrogeological models. The results demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for the upper 15 m of shallow unconsolidated sediments even though the survey design parameters were not optimal for surface wave analysis due to the higher than desired frequency geophones.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geothermal Fault Zone and Fluid Imaging through Joint Airborne ZTEM and Ground MT Data Inversion Analysis

This project has aimed to achieve detailed electrical resistivity resolution at geothermal reservoir scales by combining airborne natural electromagnetic (EM) field surveying (ZTEM) with ground magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to approximate an airborne MT geophysical method. MT alone is relatively expensive and may have permitting challenges in sensitive areas. Airborne ZTEM field data contains only the magnetic field, requires a background assumption, and has been limited to relatively high frequencies, thus suffering uniqueness problems. Based on proto-type 2D simulations, ZTEM ambiguities may be reduced through formal incorporation with possibly sparse ground MT soundings, which we pursued in full 3D for this project. The methodology was tested at the high-temperature Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system, Utah, which was considered advantageous given the near total exposure of crystalline reservoir rocks across the project area. ZTEM and ground MT survey data were acquired in 2017, subcontracted to outside parties with which we have worked in the past. These included 80 remote-referenced tensor MT soundings over the Mineral Mountains and adjacent Roosevelt Hot Spring producing geothermal system. These MT stations abut later coverage of a similar number of MT stations taken for the Utah FORGE project providing excellent total data aperture to re-solve structure beneath both project areas better than either set alone. The airborne ZTEM survey covered 704 line kilometers in E-W flight lines with a 250 m line spacing. Although this survey was timed during a maintenance-related shutdown of power production at the Roosevelt Hot Springs, other noise sources difficult to identify but including two high-voltage state-scale transmission lines compromised the ZTEM survey badly leading to unusable responses. Thus, with DOE management concurrence, the project proceeded to emphasize inversion and interpretation of the joint SubTER-FORGE MT data sets with regard to the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir recharge and to deep heat sources for both it and the Utah FORGE EGS project area. We also investigated the joint ZTEM-MT sampling concept with data sets from the Eleven Mile Canyon prospect area donated by the U.S. Navy (A. Sabin, PoC). Inversion of the SubTER-FORGE MT data using the HexMT 3D finite element algorithm reveals a large, low-resistivity anomaly extending sub-vertically through the depth range of the crust beneath the western Mineral Mountains. The steep conductive zone connects in the lower crust to a more tabular conductor characteristic of much of the Great Basin that generally is ascribed to current mafic magmatic underplating, hybridization and fluid release. The location of the resolved anomaly relative to the recent (0.5-0.8 Ma) eruptive centers of the Mineral Mountains implicates it as remnants of the magma body which fed these centers. This structure appears to be currently feeding heat and fluids upward into the Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system, as well as heat laterally to the FORGE project area. Separate and joint inversion models were carried out for the donated Eleven Mile Canyon MT-ZTEM data set to demonstrate concept. ZTEM only inversion showed two main alteration zones in the western portion of the project area known from geological mapping. Joint inversion including an E-W profile of MT soundings sharpened these features considerably. It also resolved in much greater detail the graben related normal faulting structure of the central project area which lies at depths exceeding the sensitivity of ZTEM alone. The sparse number of MT da-ta relative to the ZTEM required upweighting the former by a factor of several, but an exact procedure awaits future research. Our final impression is that sparse MT data can improve resolution of the subsurface over that of ZTEM alone. However, well sampled MT data are to be preferred and offer the simplicity of interpreting just one data type, and possess the superior resolution capability coming with the electric field everywhere, and from their high bandwidth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Velocity‐Strain Sensitivity Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone Analyzed Through Train Tremors

Abstract We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt / t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 10 4 . Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 10 5 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km −1 . This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning for Full Waveform Inversion of Elastic Active-Source Seismic Data to Estimate P-Wave Velocity Models

Seismic imaging methods are critical for Global Security and Energy & Homeland Security missions and activities that rely on subsurface characterization, but traditional methods remain computationally expensive and require significant labor hours and expertise to execute. Within the past few years, machine learning (ML), namely deep learning (DL), has been used to develop data-driven end-to-end full waveform inversion (FWI) methods to estimate 2D P-wave velocity (Vp) models in a fraction of the time as conventional FWI. These methods, however, are trained on simplistic acoustic wave seismic data and Vp models that are not realistic nor representative of real-world observations, leaving a large gap between the state-of-the-art and deployable, feasible, and practical DL FWI methods. Here, we generate a synthetic active-source, 3D, elastic wave seismic data set and a variety of Vp models with realistic geologic structure for training DL FWI methods. We evaluate six different methods that have performed well for acoustic DL FWI or medical imaging tasks using our more realistic dataset. We find that these six trained models do not match the performance of published acoustic end-to-end DL FWI methods, indicating more training data may be needed, physics may need to be incorporated to achieve good accuracy at the sacrifice of the end-to-end advantage, and/or novel methods need to be developed to enable end-to-end DL FWI methods to perform well for real-world seismic data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated Feasibility Study of Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) in Portland, OR, USA

In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to RTES systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 43,400 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stepwise Dynamic Calibration of a Hydromechanical Simulation Using Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profile

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is the 13-10A injector well within the ongoing CO2-EOR operation of the Farnsworth Field Unit. The Time-lapse VSP dataset carries the combined effects of fluid substitution and mean effective stress changes, thereby providing a dataset amenable for the calibration of production and injection-induced stress changes. The concept is similar to calibrating a reservoir simulation model in that the process honor real field data to set up an inverse problem. The solution optimizes the independent and impactful geomechanical parameters that replicate the observed time-lapse seismic velocity changes. This stress calibration is enabled by 4D geomechanical modeling and the VSP Integration workflow. This calibration benefits from extensive geological, geophysical and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the 13-10A subject well. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model. The Biot Gassmann workflow combines rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the fluid substitution contribution to seismic velocity change. Additionally, modeled seismic velocity attributed to mean effective stress are determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from the ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements on the extracted Morrow B core. A penalty function is then formed between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. Four independent and impactful geomechanical parameters have been determined. These are the bulk modulus and shear modulus for zero porosity and the shear and compressional seismic velocity to mean effective stress derivatives. The dataset of numerous coupled hydromechanical- geomechanical simulation realizations is built by combining variations of the four stated geomechanical parameters. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer are used to converge on the optimal geomechanical parameters. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling.

02 PETROLEUM↗