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At least 289 records · Page 16

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering signi􀂦cant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

clouds↗

Analysis of subgrid models using direct and large-eddy simulations of isotropic turbulence

Direct and large eddy simulations of forced and decaying isotropic turbulence have been performed using a pseudospectral and a finite-difference code. Subgrid models that include a one-equation subgrid kinetic energy model with and without a stochastic backscatter forcing term and a new scale similarity model have been analyzed in both Fourier space and physical space. The Fourier space analysis showed that the energy transfer across the cutoff wavenumber k(sub c) is dominated by local interaction. The correlation between the exact and the modeled (by a spectral eddy viscosity) nonlinear terms and the subgrid energy transfer in physical space was found to be quite low. In physical space, a similar correlation analysis was carried out using top hat filtering. Results show that the subgrid stress and the energy flux predicted by the subgrid models correlates very well with the exact data. The scale similarity model showed very high correlation for reasonable grid resolution. However, with decrease in grid resolution, the scale similarity model became more uncorrelated, when compared to the kinetic energy subgrid model. The subgrid models were then used for large-eddy simulations for a range of Reynolds number. It was determined that the dissipation was modeled poorly and that the correlation with the exact results was quite low for all the models. In general, for coarse grid resolution, the scale similarity model consistently showed very low correlation while the kinetic energy model showed a relatively higher correlation. These results suggest that to use the scale similarity model relatively fine grid resolution may be required, whereas, the kinetic energy model could be used even in coarse grid.

Menon, S.↗

Water balance model for Kings Creek

Particular attention is given to the spatial variability that affects the representation of water balance at the catchment scale in the context of macroscale water-balance modeling. Remotely sensed data are employed for parameterization, and the resulting model is developed so that subgrid spatial variability is preserved and therefore influences the grid-scale fluxes of the model. The model permits the quantitative evaluation of the surface-atmospheric interactions related to the large-scale hydrologic water balance.

Wood, Eric F.↗

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Koster, Randal↗

Quantized-"Gray-Scale" Electronic Synapses

Proposed array of programmable synaptic connections for electronic neural network applications offers multiple quantized levels of connection strength using only simple, two-terminal, binary microswitch devices. Subgrids in fine grid of programmable resistive connections connected externally in parallel to form coarser synaptic grid. By selection of pattern of connections in each subgrid, connection strength of synaptic node represented by that subgrid set at quantized "gray level". Device structures promise implementations of quantized-"gray-scale" synaptic arrays with very high density.

Lamb, James L.↗

Turbulence statistics in fully developed channel flow at low Reynolds number

A direct numerical simulation of a turbulent channel flow is performed. The unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved numerically at a Reynolds number of 3300, based on the mean centerline velocity and channel half-width, with about 4 million grid points. All essential turbulence scales are resolved on the computational grid and no subgrid model is used. A large number of turbulence statistics are computed and compared with the existing experimental data at comparable Reynolds numbers. Agreements as well as discrepancies are discussed in detail. Particular attention is given to the behavior of turbulence correlations near the wall. A number of statistical correlations which are complementary to the existing experimental data are reported for the first time.

Kim, John↗

Recursive renormalization group theory based subgrid modeling

Advancing the knowledge and understanding of turbulence theory is addressed. Specific problems to be addressed will include studies of subgrid models to understand the effects of unresolved small scale dynamics on the large scale motion which, if successful, might substantially reduce the number of degrees of freedom that need to be computed in turbulence simulation.

Zhou, YE↗

Turbulent Premixed Flame Propagation in Microgravity

A facility in which turbulent Couette flow could be generated in a microgravity environment was designed and built. To fit into the NASA Lewis drop tower the device had to be very compact. This means that edge effects and flow re-circulation were expected to affect the flow. The flow was thoroughly investigated using LDV and was found to be largely two dimensional away from the edges with constant turbulence intensities in the core. Slight flow asymmetries are introduced by the non symmetric re-circulation of the fluid outside the test region. Belt flutter problems were remedied by adding a pair of guide plates to the belt. In general, the flow field was found to be quite similar to previously investigated Couette flows. However, turbulence levels and associated shear stresses were higher. This is probably due to the confined re-circulation zone reintroducing turbulence into the test section. An estimate of the length scales in the flow showed that the measurements were able to resolve nearly all the length scales of interest. Using a new LES method for subgrid combustion it has been demonstrated that the new procedure is computational feasible even on workstation type environment. It is found that this model is capable of capturing the propagation of the premixed names by resolving the flame in the LES grid within 2-3 grid points. In contrast, conventional LES results in numerical smearing of the flame and completely inaccurate estimate of the turbulent propagation speed. Preliminary study suggests that there is observable effect of buoyancy in the 1g environment suggesting the need for microgravity experiments of the upcoming experimental combustion studies. With the cold flow properties characterized, an identical hot flow facility is under construction. It is assumed that the turbulence properties ahead of the flame in this new device will closely match the results obtained here. This is required since the hot facility will not enable LDV measurements. The reacting flow facility is also being constructed with planned drop tower experiments in mind. Therefore, issues related to safety and structural integrity are being take into account. Further development of the numerical model will also be carried out to include finite-rate kinetics for representative premixed cases. More detail analysis of the flame structure and propagation nature will be investigated. Simulations will also be compared to the flame properties observed in the experiments.

Menon, S.↗

A Catchment-Based Land Surface Model for GCMs and the Framework for its Evaluation

A new GCM-scale land surface modeling strategy that explicitly accounts for subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on evaporation and runoff is now being explored. In a break from traditional modeling strategies, the continental surface is disaggregated into a mosaic of hydrological catchments, with boundaries that are not dictated by a regular grid but by topography. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is deduced from TOP-MODEL equations with a special treatment of the unsaturated zone. This paper gives an overview of this new approach and presents the general framework for its off-line evaluation over North-America.

Ducharen, A.↗

Evaluation of Cloud Physical Properties of ECMWF Analysis and Re-Analysis (ERA-40 and ERA Interim) against CERES Tropical Deep Convective Cloud Object Observations

This study presents an approach that converts the vertical profiles of grid-averaged cloud properties from large-scale models to probability density functions (pdfs) of subgrid-cell cloud physical properties measured at satellite footprints. Cloud physical and radiative properties, rather than just cloud and precipitation occurrences, of assimilated cloud systems by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis (EOA) and ECMWF Re-Analyses (ERA-40 and ERA Interim) are validated against those obtained from Earth Observing System satellite cloud object data for January-August 1998 and March 2000 periods. These properties include ice water path (IWP), cloud-top height and temperature, cloud optical depth and solar and infrared radiative fluxes. Each cloud object, a contiguous region with similar cloud physical properties, is temporally and spatially matched with EOA and ERA-40 data. Results indicate that most pdfs of EOA and ERA-40 cloud physical and radiative properties agree with those of satellite observations of the tropical deep convective cloud-object type for the January-August 1998 period. There are, however, significant discrepancies in selected ranges of the cloud property pdfs such as the upper range of EOA cloud top height. A major discrepancy is that the dependence of the pdfs on the cloud object size for both EOA and ERA-40 is not as strong as in the observations. Modifications to the cloud parameterization in ECMWF that occurred in October 1999 eliminate the clouds near the tropopause but shift power of the pdf to lower cloud-top heights and greatly reduce the ranges of IWP and cloud optical depth pdfs. These features persist in ERA-40 due to the use of the same cloud parameterizations. The downgrade of data assimilation technique and the lack of snow water content information in ERA-40, not the coarser horizontal grid resolution, are also responsible for the disagreements with observed pdfs of cloud physical properties although the detection rates of cloud object occurrence are improved for small size categories. A possible improvement to the convective parameterization is to introduce a stronger dependence of updraft penetration heights with grid-cell dynamics. These conclusions will be rechecked using the ERA Interim data, due to recent changes in the ECMWF convective parameterization (Bechtold et al. 2004, 2008). Results from the ERA Interim will be presented at the meeting.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid Turbulent Transport Based on 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations of the Quiet Sun

Turbulent Transport: Plays a critical role in astrophysical plasmas, such as the solar interior, spanning multiple scales and challenging traditional modeling approaches. Objective: Develop machine learning (ML) models—MLP and CNN—to predict subgrid Reynolds stress tensors from StellarBox 3D simulations of the solar atmosphere. Benchmarking: Compare ML-driven models against physics-based Gradient and Smagorinsky approaches.

SMD↗

A New Statistically based Autoconversion rate Parameterization for use in Large-Scale Models

The autoconversion rate is a key process for the formation of precipitation in warm clouds. In climate models, physical processes such as autoconversion rate, which are calculated from grid mean values, are biased, because they do not take subgrid variability into account. Recently, statistical cloud schemes have been introduced in large-scale models to account for partially cloud-covered grid boxes. However, these schemes do not include the in-cloud variability in their parameterizations. In this paper, a new statistically based autoconversion rate considering the in-cloud variability is introduced and tested in three cases using the Canadian Single Column Model (SCM) of the global climate model. The results show that the new autoconversion rate improves the model simulation, especially in terms of liquid water path in all three case studies.

Lin, Bing↗

Assessment of Two Stochastic Cloud Subcolumn Generators Using Observed Fields of Vertically Resolved Cloud Extinction

We evaluate two stochastic subcolumn generators used in GCMs to emulate subgrid cloud variability enabling comparisons with satellite observations and simulations of certain physical processes. Our evaluation necessitated the creation of a reference observational dataset that resolves horizontal and vertical cloud variability. The dataset combines two CloudSat cloud products that resolve two-dimensional cloud optical depth variability of liquid, ice, and mixed phase clouds when blended at ~200 m vertical and ~ 2 km horizontal scales. Upon segmenting the dataset to individual “scenes”, mean profiles of the cloud fields are passed as input to generators that produce scene-level cloud subgrid variability. The assessment of generator performance at the scale of individual scenes and in a mean sense is largely based on inferred joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within predetermined combinations of cloud top pressure –cloud optical thickness ranges. Our main finding is that both generators tend to underestimate optically thin clouds, while one of them also tends to overestimate some cloud types of moderate and high optical thickness. Associated radiative flux errors are also calculated by applying a simple transformation to the cloud fraction histogram errors, and are found to approach values almost as high as 3 Wm-2 for the cloud radiative effect in the shortwave part of the spectrum.

cloud variability↗

Renormalization-group theory for the eddy viscosity in subgrid modeling

Renormalization-group theory is applied to incompressible three-dimensional Navier-Stokes turbulence so as to eliminate unresolvable small scales. The renormalized Navier-Stokes equation now includes a triple nonlinearity with the eddy viscosity exhibiting a mild cusp behavior, in qualitative agreement with the test-field model results of Kraichnan. For the cusp behavior to arise, not only is the triple nonlinearity necessary but the effects of pressure must be incorporated in the triple term. The renormalized eddy viscosity will not exhibit a cusp behavior if it is assumed that a spectral gap exists between the large and small scales.

Zhou, YE↗

Towards LES Models of Jets and Plumes

As pointed out by Rodi standard integral solutions for jets and plumes developed for discharge into infinite, quiescent ambient are difficult to extend to complex situations, particularly in the presence of boundaries such as the sea floor or ocean surface. In such cases the assumption of similarity breaks down and it is impossible to find a suitable entrainment coefficient. The models are also incapable of describing any but the most slowly varying unsteady motions. There is therefore a need for full time-dependent modeling of the flow field for which there are three main approaches: (1) Reynolds averaged numerical simulation (RANS), (2) large eddy simulation (LES), and (3) direct numerical simulation (DNS). Rodi applied RANS modeling to both jets and plumes with considerable success, the test being a match with experimental data for time-averaged velocity and temperature profiles as well as turbulent kinetic energy and rms axial turbulent velocity fluctuations. This model still relies on empirical constants, some eleven in the case of the buoyant jet, and so would not be applicable to a partly laminar plume, may have limited use in the presence of boundaries, and would also be unsuitable if one is after details of the unsteady component of the flow (the turbulent eddies). At the other end of the scale DNS modeling includes all motions down to the viscous scales. Boersma et al. have built such a model for the non-buoyant case which also compares well with measured data for mean and turbulent velocity components. The model demonstrates its versatility by application to a laminar flow case. As its name implies, DNS directly models the Navier-Stokes equations without recourse to subgrid modeling so for flows with a broad spectrum of motions (high Re) the cost can be prohibitive - the number of required grid points scaling with Re(exp 9/4) and the number of time steps with Re(exp 3/4). The middle road is provided by LES whereby the Navier-Stokes equations are formally filtered with the filter chosen to only exclude the smallest turbulent motions. If successful, LES should provide much of the detail available to DNS but at more bearable cost. Fatica et al. in comparing LES with DNS for a low Reynolds number jet showed that the LES could simulate the temporally evolving behavior including growth of the jet thickness. It is the intention of this report to explore the application of an LES model to jets and plumes. As always, before tackling complex situations, the model must be tested for the simplest of cases and so we address only two, a non-buoyant axisymmetric jet issuing steadily from an orifice into a semi-infinite stationary environment and a buoyant jet in the same environment. The work is a continuation of Basu and Mansour.

Webb, A. T.↗

Energy transfer and constrained simulations in isotropic turbulence

The defining characteristic of turbulent flows is their ability to dissipate energy, even in the limit of zero viscosity. The Euler equations, if constrained in such a way that the velocity derivatives remain bounded, conserve energy. But when they arise as the limit of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, when the Reynolds number goes to infinity, there is persuasive empirical evidence that the gradients become singular as just the right function of Re for the dissipation to remain non-zero and to approach a well defined limit. It is generally believed that this limiting value of the dissipation is a property of the Euler equations themselves, independent of the particular dissipative mechanism involved, and that it can be normalized with the large scale properties of the turbulent flow (e.g. the kinetic energy per unit volume u'(exp 2)/2, and the integral scale L) without reference to the Reynolds number or to other dissipative quantities. This is usually taken to imply that the low wave number end of the energy spectrum, far from the dissipative range, is also independent of the particular mechanism chosen to dispose of the energy transfer. In the following sections, we present some numerical experiments on the effect of substituting different dissipation models into the truncated Euler equations. We will see that the effect is mainly felt in the 'near dissipation' range of the energy spectrum, but that this range can be quite wide in some cases, contaminating a substantial range of wave numbers. In the process, we will develop a 'practical' approximation to the subgrid energy transfer in isotropic turbulence, and we will gain insight into the structure of the nonlinear interactions among turbulent scales of comparable size, and into the nature of energy backscatter. Some considerations on future research directions are offered at the end.

Jimenez, Javier↗

Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, e.g., through satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.

Streamflow Prediction↗

Characterization of Cloud Water-Content Distribution

The development of realistic cloud parameterizations for climate models requires accurate characterizations of subgrid distributions of thermodynamic variables. To this end, a software tool was developed to characterize cloud water-content distributions in climate-model sub-grid scales. This software characterizes distributions of cloud water content with respect to cloud phase, cloud type, precipitation occurrence, and geo-location using CloudSat radar measurements. It uses a statistical method called maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the probability density function of the cloud water content.

Lee, Seungwon↗