Statistical modeling of ROM Errors on the solution of parametrized PDEs by the ROMES method.
Abstract not provided.
Carlberg, Kevin Thomas↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Statistical error”
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Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction
A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Five groups of red giants with distinct chemical composition in the globular cluster NGC 2808
The chemical composition of multiple populations in the massive globular cluster (GC) NGC 2808 is addressed with the homogeneous abundance reanalysis of 140 red giant branch stars. UVES spectra for 31 stars and GIRAFFE spectra for the other giants were analyzed with the same procedures used for about 2500 giants in 23 GCs in our FLAMES survey, deriving abundances of Fe, O, Na, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Sc, Cr, Mn, and Ni. Iron, elements from α capture, and those in the Fe group do not show intrinsic scatter. On our UVES scale, the metallicity of NGC 2808 is [Fe/H] = −1.129±0.005±0.034 (± statistical ± systematic error) with σ = 0.030 (31 stars). The main features related to proton-capture elements are retrieved, but the improved statistics and the smaller associated internal errors allow us to uncover five distinct groups of stars along the Na–O anticorrelation. We observe large depletions in Mg, anticorrelated with enhancements of Na and also Si, suggestive of unusually high temperatures for proton captures. About 14% of our sample is formed by giants with solar or subsolar [Mg/Fe] ratios. Using the [Na/Mg] ratios, we confirm the presence of five populations with different chemical compositions that we call P1, P2, I1, I2, and E in order of decreasing Mg and increasing Na abundances. Statistical tests show that the mean ratios in any pair of groups cannot be extracted from the same parent distribution. The overlap with the five populations recently detected from UV photometry is good but not perfect, confirming that more distinct components probably exist in this complex GC.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Redshift evolution and covariances for joint lensing and clustering studies with DESI Y1
ABSTRACT Galaxy–galaxy lensing (GGL) and clustering measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) data set promise to yield unprecedented combined-probe tests of cosmology and the galaxy–halo connection. In such analyses, it is essential to identify and characterize all relevant statistical and systematic errors. We forecast the covariances of DESI Y1 GGL + clustering measurements and the systematic bias due to redshift evolution in the lens samples. Focusing on the projected clustering and GGL correlations, we compute a Gaussian analytical covariance, using a suite of N-body and lognormal simulations to characterize the effect of the survey footprint. Using the DESI one percent survey data, we measure the evolution of galaxy bias parameters for the DESI luminous red galaxy (LRG) and bright galaxy survey (BGS) samples. We find mild evolution in the LRGs in $0.4 < z < 0.8$, subdominant to the expected statistical errors. For BGS, we find less evolution for brighter absolute magnitude cuts, at the cost of reduced sample size. We find that for a redshift bin width $\Delta z = 0.1$, evolution effects on DESI Y1 GGL is negligible across all scales, all fiducial selection cuts, all fiducial redshift bins. Galaxy clustering is more sensitive to evolution due to the bias squared scaling. Nevertheless the redshift evolution effect is insignificant for clustering above the 1-halo scale of $0.1h^{-1}$ Mpc. For studies that wish to reliably access smaller scales, additional treatment of redshift evolution is likely needed. This study serves as a reference for GGL and clustering studies using the DESI Y1 sample.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Connected and leading disconnected hadronic light-by-light contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment with a physical pion mass
We report a lattice QCD calculation of the hadronic light-by-light contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment at a physical pion mass. The calculation includes the connected diagrams and the leading, quark-line-disconnected diagrams. We incorporate algorithmic improvements developed in our previous work. The calculation was performed on the 48 3 × 96 ensemble generated with a physical pion mass and a 5.5 fm spatial extent by the RBC and UKQCD Collaborations using the chiral, domain wall fermion formulation. We find a HLbL μ = 5.35(1.35) × 10 –10 , where the error is statistical only. The finite-volume and finite lattice-spacing errors could be quite large and are the subject of ongoing research. Finally, the omitted disconnected graphs, while expected to give a correction of order 10%, also need to be computed.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Understanding the Interplay between Hardware Errors and User Job Characteristics on the Titan Supercomputer
Designing dependable supercomputers begins with an understanding of errors in real-world, large-scale systems. The Titan supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory provides a unique opportunity to investigate errors when an actual system is actively used by multiple concurrent users and workloads from diverse domains at varying scales. This study presents a thorough analysis of 6, 908, 497 hardware errors from 18, 688 compute nodes of Titan for 312, 215 user jobs over a 3-year time period. Through careful joining of two system logs – the Machine Check Architecture (MCA) log and the job scheduler log – we show the correlated pattern of hardware errors for each job and user, in addition to individual descriptive statistics of errors, jobs, and users. Since the majority of hardware errors are memory errors, this study also shows the importance of error correcting in memory systems.
Lim, Seung-Hwan↗
Enhancing ZFP: A Statistical Approach to Understanding and Reducing Error Bias in a Lossy Floating-Point Compression Algorithm
The amount of data generated and gathered in scientific simulations and data collection applications is continuously growing, putting mounting pressure on storage and bandwidth concerns. A means of reducing such issues is data compression; but, lossless data compression is typically ineffective when applied to floating-point data. Thus, users tend to apply a lossy data compressor, which allows for small deviations from the original data. It is essential to understand how the error from lossy compression impacts the accuracy of the data analytics. Thus, we must analyze not only the compression properties but the error as well. In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of the error caused by ZFP compression, a state-of-the-art, lossy compression algorithm explicitly designed for floating-point data. We show that the error is indeed biased and propose simple modifications to the algorithm to neutralize the bias and further reduce the resulting error.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Influence of ultraviolet irradiation on data retention characteristics in resistive random access memory
With increasing density of memory devices, the issue of generating soft errors by cosmic rays is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, the irradiation resistance of resistance random access memory (ReRAM) to cosmic radiation has to be elucidated for practical use. In this paper, we investigated the data retention characteristics of ReRAM against ultraviolet irradiation with a Pt/NiO/ITO structure. Soft errors were confirmed to be caused by ultraviolet irradiation in both low- and high-resistance states. An analysis of the wavelength dependence of light irradiation on data retention characteristics suggested that electronic excitation from the valence to the conduction band and to the energy level generated due to the introduction of oxygen vacancies caused the errors. Based on a statistically estimated soft error rates, the errors were suggested to be caused by the cohesion and dispersion of oxygen vacancies owing to the generation of electron-hole pairs and valence changes by the ultraviolet irradiation.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP3-01: A Statistical Model for Analyzing the Rotational Error of Single Iso-Center Technique
Purpose: To develop a generalized statistical model that incorporates the treatment uncertainty from the rotational error of single iso-center technique, and calculate the additional PTV (planning target volume) margin required to compensate for this error. Methods: The random vectors for setup and additional rotation errors in the three-dimensional (3D) patient coordinate system were assumed to follow the 3D independent normal distribution with zero mean, and standard deviations σx, σy, σz, for setup error and a uniform σR for rotational error. Both random vectors were summed, normalized and transformed to the spherical coordinates to derive the chi distribution with 3 degrees of freedom for the radical distance ρ. PTV margin was determined using the critical value of this distribution for 0.05 significant level so that 95% of the time the treatment target would be covered by ρ. The additional PTV margin required to compensate for the rotational error was calculated as a function of σx, σy, σz and σR. Results: The effect of the rotational error is more pronounced for treatments that requires high accuracy/precision like stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). With a uniform 2mm PTV margin (or σx =σy=σz=0.7mm), a σR=0.32mm will decrease the PTV coverage from 95% to 90% of the time, or an additional 0.2mm PTV margin is needed to prevent this loss of coverage. If we choose 0.2 mm as the threshold, any σR>0.3mm will lead to an additional PTV margin that cannot be ignored, and the maximal σR that can be ignored is 0.0064 rad (or 0.37°) for iso-to-target distance=5cm, or 0.0032 rad (or 0.18°) for iso-to-target distance=10cm. Conclusions: The rotational error cannot be ignored for high-accuracy/-precision treatments like SRS/SBRT, particularly when the distance between the iso-center and target is large.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Determination of errors in derived magnetic field directions in geosynchronous orbit: results from a statistical approach
This study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Second, using a newly developed proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors< ~2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors >~5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. This study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A machine learning approach for efficient multi-dimensional integration
Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Bootstrap estimation of the effect of instrument response function uncertainty on the reconstruction of fusion neutron sources
Neutron imagers are important diagnostics for the inertial confinement fusion implosions at the National Ignition Facility. They provide two- and three-dimensional reconstructions of the neutron source shape that are key indicators of the overall performance. To interpret the shape results properly, it is critical to estimate the uncertainty in those reconstructions. There are two main sources of uncertainties: limited neutron statistics, leading to random errors in the reconstructed images, and incomplete knowledge of the instrument response function (the pinhole-dependent point spread function). While the statistical errors dominate the uncertainty for lower yield deuterium-tritium (DT) shots, errors due to the instrument response function dominate the uncertainty for DT yields on the order of 10 16 neutrons or higher. In this work, a bootstrapping method estimates the uncertainty in a reconstructed image due to the incomplete knowledge of the instrument response function. The main reconstruction is created from the fixed collection of pinhole images that are best aligned with the neutron source. Additional reconstructions are then built using subsets of that collection of images. Variations in the shapes of these additional reconstructions originate solely from uncertainties in the instrument response function, allowing us to use them to provide an additional systematic uncertainty estimate.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Error Convergence Characterization for Stochastic Transport Methods
There has been increased interest in reliably and efficiently solving engineering systems involving uncertainty in recent years. Characterization of the convergence of errors within the problem, including statistical and bias errors, increases confidence that chosen solution methods are appropriate for a particular problem and quantity of interest (QoI), that implementation errors have not been made, and can aid users or algorithms in solving problems within a tolerance efficiently. We demonstrate a method for characterizing error convergence in a simple stochastic transport problem. Though the approach is applicable to problems with more complicated physics, our simple problem enables analytic QoI solutions so that error convergence behavior and the identification of limiting errors can be presented with high precision. A one-dimensional, two-material, neutral-particle, and absorption-only transport problem involving uniformly distributed uncertain total cross sections is presented. Random sampling (RS) and stochastic collocation (SC) are used as stochastic solvers which sample from the uncertain space and Monte Carlo (MC) transport is employed to solve transport results on the resulting realizations. Probability density functions (PDFs) are created using either RS solutions or samples taken from a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) constructed with SC solutions. The convergence of each solver is characterized with respect to the QoI against analytic solutions, convergence behavior is used to efficiently solve a QoI within a tolerance, and convergence plots are used to identify dominant solution errors.
42 ENGINEERING↗
ESTIMATING THE PROPERTIES OF HARD X-RAY SOLAR FLARES BY CONSTRAINING MODEL PARAMETERS
We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23. We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, E{sub c} , a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that E{sub c} lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 {+-} 4 keV with 68% probability. Using the Bayesian/MCMC approach, we also estimate for the first time probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and the energy they carry for each flare studied. For the 2002 July 23 event, these probability density functions are asymmetric with long tails orders of magnitude higher than the most probable value, caused by the poorly constrained value of the low-energy cutoff. The most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 28.1} erg s{sup -1}, with a 68% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.1}-10{sup 29.0} erg s{sup -1}, and a 95% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.0}-10{sup 30.2} erg s{sup -1}. For the 2005 January 19 flare spectrum, the probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and their energy are much more symmetric and narrow: the most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 27.66{+-}0.01} erg s{sup -1} (68% credible intervals). However, in this case the uncertainty due to systematic sources of error is estimated to dominate the uncertainty due to statistical sources of error.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Axial, scalar, and tensor charges of the nucleon from 2+1+1-flavor Lattice QCD
We present results for the isovector axial, scalar, and tensor charges 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝐴}$, 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝑆}$, and 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝑇}$ of the nucleon needed to probe the Standard Model and novel physics. The axial charge is a fundamental parameter describing the weak interactions of nucleons. The scalar and tensor charges probe novel interactions at the TeV scale in neutron and nuclear 𝛽-decays, and the flavor-diagonal tensor charges 𝑔$^{𝑢}_{𝑇}$, 𝑔$^{𝑑}_{𝑇}$, and 𝑔$^{𝑠}_{𝑇}$ are needed to quantify the contribution of the quark electric dipole moment (EDM) to the neutron EDM. The lattice-QCD calculations were done using nine ensembles of gauge configurations generated by the MILC Collaboration using the highly improved staggered quarks action with 2+1+1 dynamical flavors. These ensembles span three lattice spacings 𝑎 ≈0.06,0.09, and 0.12 fm and light-quark masses corresponding to the pion masses 𝑀 𝜋 ≈ 135,225, and 315 MeV. High-statistics estimates on five ensembles using the all-mode-averaging method allow us to quantify all systematic uncertainties and perform a simultaneous extrapolation in the lattice spacing, lattice volume, and light-quark masses for the connected contributions. Our final estimates, in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 2 GeV, of the isovector charges are 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝐴}$ = 1.195(33)(20), 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝑆}$ = 0.97(12)(6), and 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝑇}$ = 0.987(51)(20). The first error includes statistical and all systematic uncertainties except that due to the extrapolation Ansatz, which is given by the second error estimate. Combining our estimate for 𝑔$^{𝑢−𝑑}_{𝑆}$ with the difference of light quarks masses (𝑚 𝑑 − 𝑚 𝑢 ) QCD = 2.67(35) MeV given by the Flavor Lattice Average Group, we obtain (𝑀 𝑁 − 𝑀 𝑃 ) QCD = 2.59(49) MeV.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Direct CP violation and the ΔI=1/2 rule in K→ππ decay from the standard model
We present a lattice QCD calculation of the Δ I = 1 / 2 , K → π π decay amplitude A 0 and ϵ ' , the measure of direct C P violation in K → π π decay, improving our 2015 calculation [1] of these quantities. Both calculations were performed with physical kinematics on a 32 3 × 64 lattice with an inverse lattice spacing of a - 1 = 1.3784 ( 68 ) GeV . However, the current calculation includes nearly 4 times the statistics and numerous technical improvements allowing us to more reliably isolate the π π ground state and more accurately relate the lattice operators to those defined in the standard model. We find Re ( A 0 ) = 2.99 ( 0.32 ) ( 0.59 ) × 10 - 7 GeV and Im ( A 0 ) = - 6.98 ( 0.62 ) ( 1.44 ) × 10 - 11 GeV , where the errors are statistical and systematic, respectively. The former agrees well with the experimental result Re ( A 0 ) = 3.3201 ( 18 ) × 10 - 7 GeV . These results for A 0 can be combined with our earlier lattice calculation of A 2 [2] to obtain Re ( ϵ ' / ϵ ) = 21.7 ( 2.6 ) ( 6.2 ) ( 5.0 ) × 10 - 4 , where the third error represents omitted isospin breaking effects, and Re ( A 0 ) / Re ( A 2 ) = 19.9 ( 2.3 ) ( 4.4 ) . The first agrees well with the experimental result of Re ( ϵ ' / ϵ ) = 16.6 ( 2.3 ) × 10 - 4 . A comparison of the second with the observed ratio Re ( A 0 ) / Re ( A 2 ) = 22.45 ( 6 ) , demonstrates the standard model origin of this “ Δ I = 1 / 2 rule” enhancement.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Multidimensional effects in nonadiabatic statistical theories of spin- forbidden kinetics. A case study of 3 O + CO → CO 2
The appropriateness of treating crossing seams of electronic states of different spins as nonadiabatic transition states in statistical calculations of spin-forbidden reaction rates is considered. We show that the spin-forbidden reaction coordinate, the nuclear coordinate perpendicular to the crossing seam, is coupled to the remaining nuclear degrees of freedom. We found that this coupling gives rise to multidimensional effects that are not typically included in statistical treatments of spin-forbidden kinetics. Three qualitative categories of multidimensional effects may be identified: static multidimensional effects due to the geometry-dependence of the local shape of the crossing seam and of the spin–orbit coupling, dynamical multidimensional effects due to energy exchange with the reaction coordinate during the seam crossing, and nonlocal(history-dependent) multidimensional effects due to interference of the electronic variables at second, third, and later seam crossings. Nonlocal multidimensional effects are intimately related to electronic decoherence, where electronic dephasing acts to erase the history of the system. A semiclassical model based on short-time full-dimensional trajectories that includes all three multidimensional effects as well as a model for electronic decoherence is presented. The results of this multidimensional nonadiabatic statistical theory (MNST) for the 3 O + CO → CO 2 reaction are compared with the results of statistical theories employing one-dimensional (Landau–Zener and weak coupling) models for the transition probability and with those calculated previously using multistate trajectories. The MNST method is shown to accurately reproduce the multistate decay-of-mixing trajectory results, so long as consistent thresholds are used. Furthermore, the MNST approach has several advantages over multistate trajectory approaches and is more suitable in chemical kinetics calculations at low temperatures and for complex systems. The error in statistical calculations that neglect multidimensional effects is shown to be as large as a factor of 2 for this system, with static multidimensional effects identified as the largest source of error.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Hadronic light-by-light contribution to the muon anomaly from lattice QCD with infinite volume QED at physical pion mass
The hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment, (g–2)/2, is computed in the infinite volume QED framework with lattice QCD. We report $a^{HLbL}_μ$ = 12.47(1.15)(0.95) ×10 –10 where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The result is mainly based on the 2+1 flavor Möbius domain wall fermion ensemble with inverse lattice spacing a –1 = 1.73 GeV, lattice size L = 5.5 fm, and m π = 139 MeV, generated by the RBC-UKQCD collaborations. The leading systematic error of this result comes from the lattice discretization. This result is consistent with previous determinations.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗